Other Poverty Study

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The Socioeconomic Impacts of COVID-19 on Households in Cambodia, Report No. 5: Results from the High-Frequency Phone Survey of Households Round 5 (1-21 March 2021)

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06) Karamba, Wendy ; Salcher, Isabelle ; Tong, Kimsun

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and its effects on households create an urgent need for timely data and evidence to help monitor and mitigate the social and economic impacts of the crisis on the Cambodian people, especially the poor and most vulnerable. To monitor the evolving socioeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and inform policy responses and interventions, the World Bank designed and conducted a nationally representative High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) of households in Cambodia. The survey covers important and relevant topics, including knowledge of COVID-19 and adoption of preventative behaviors, economic activity and income sources, access to basic goods and services, exposure to shocks and coping mechanisms, and access to social assistance. The survey will track the same households over 10 months, with selected respondents - typically the household head - completing interviews every 8 weeks. Monitoring the well-being of households over time will improve understanding of the effects of, and household responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in near-real time. This brief summarizes the findings of Round 5 (R5) of the HFPS. The information presented is based on a sample of 1,688 households, of which 379 were drawn from the nationally representative Living Standards Measurement Study Plus (LSMS+) survey and 1,309 from the list of beneficiaries of the conditional cash transfer program for pregnant women and children under 2 with an IDPoor equity card (IDPoor sample). IDPoor is Cambodia's national poverty identification program and official targeting mechanism for programs that support the poor. Unless otherwise noted, the results presented are primarily drawn from the LSMS+ sample. To trace the evolution of key indicators, the results of Round 5 (R5) implemented in March 2021 are compared against results of Round 4 (R4) implemented in December 2020–January 2021, Round 3 (R3) implemented October–November 2020, Round 2 (R2) implemented August–September 2020, and Round 1 (R1) implemented May–June 2020.
The Socioeconomic Impacts of COVID-19 on Households in Cambodia, Report No. 3: Results from the High-Frequency Phone Survey of Households, Round 3

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-02) Karamba, Wendy ; Salcher, Isabelle ; Tong, Kimsun

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and its effects on households create an urgent need for timely data and evidence to help monitor and mitigate the social and economic impacts of the crisis on the Cambodian people, especially the poor and most vulnerable. To monitor the evolving socioeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and inform policy responses and interventions, the World Bank designed and conducted a nationally representative High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) of households in Cambodia. The survey covers important and relevant topics, including knowledge of COVID-19 and adoption of preventative behaviors, economic activity and income sources, access to basic goods and services, exposure to shocks and coping mechanisms, and access to social assistance. The survey will track the same households over 10 months, with selected respondents-typically the household head-completing interviews every 8 weeks. Monitoring the well-being of households over time will improve understanding of the effects of, and household responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in near-real time. This brief summarizes the findings of Round 3 (R3) of the HFPS. The information presented is based on a sample of 1,665 households, of which 481 were drawn from the nationally representative Living Standards Measurement Study Plus (LSMS+) survey and 1,184 from the list of beneficiaries of the conditional cash transfer program for pregnant women and children under 2 with an IDPoor equity card (IDPoor sample). IDPoor is Cambodia's national poverty identification program and official targeting mechanism for programs that support the poor. Unless otherwise noted, the results presented are primarily drawn from the LSMS+ sample. To trace the evolution of key indicators, the results of Round 3 (R3) implemented October-November 2020 are compared against results of Round 2 (R2) implemented August-September 2020 and Round 1 (R1) implemented May-June 2020.
Papua New Guinea High Frequency Phone Survey on COVID-19, December 2020 to January 2021

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021) World Bank ; UNICEF

This joint report by the World Bank and United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF) Papua New Guinea (PNG) presents the findings from two mobile phone surveys conducted in December 2020 and January 2021 in PNG. The World Bank survey, conducted in December 2020, was the second in a series. The UNICEF survey, conducted in January 2021, targeted re-contacting all 2,534 households from the World Bank round 2 survey with children under the age of 15, and achieved a final sample of 2,449. These results were also weighted using information from the demographic and health survey (DHS) to develop representative estimates for households with children under 15, 79.8 percent according to the DHS. The UNICEF survey included sections on household impacts as well as on the children living within the household. Compared to the rest of the country, markedly higher shares of respondents in the NCD noted deteriorations since June in situations related to theft, alcohol, and drug abuse, intimidation by police, violence by police, and domestic abuse, as well as higher declines in overall community trust, which can be an indicator of rising tensions. In addition, there were potential warning signs of the impacts of the prolonged crisis on children, with more than one-third of children exhibiting negative behavioral changes in the previous 15 days - though again a lack of baseline data limits the ability to establish a causal link specifically with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
Women Endure COVID-19 Unequally to Men

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-11-20) World Bank

The adverse impact of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is being disproportionately borne by women, further exacerbating the wide gender inequities in Myanmar. From food security, shortages in finances and the burden of caretaking responsibilities, women have been disproportionately affected by the secondary impacts of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Women have had to adopt more drastic measures to mitigate the impacts of the pandemic, both reactively and proactively, ranging from reducing food- and non-food consumption and borrowing money from Micro-Finance Institutions and informal money lenders. Not unexpectedly, women’s greater disadvantage, limited access to support, subjection to domestic violence and structural inequalities lend themselves to their being less optimistic about the near future. The evidence surveyed is clear that women are enduring Coronavirus (COVID-19) disproportionately worse than men, both in household and firm settings and they take on the bulk of the emotional burden with regard to responsive and proactive coping mechanisms.
The Socioeconomic Impacts of COVID-19 on Households in Cambodia, Report No. 1: Results from the High-Frequency Phone Survey of Households, Round 1

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-11) Karamba, Wendy ; Nkengene, Clarence Tsimpo ; Tong, Kimsun

This brief summarizes the findings of the first round of a nationally representative high-frequency phone survey (HFPS) of households. The HFPS sample is drawn from the nationally representative living standard measurement study plus (LSMS+) implemented October to December 2019 by the National Institute of Statistics (NIS) with technical and financial support from the World Bank. The HFPS followed up with 1,364 households in LSMS+ with a phone number. The phone survey was successfully completed for 700 households for a response rate of 51 percent. Sampling weights were adjusted to ensure that the sample remains representative at the national and subnational level (urban and rural areas). The same households will be tracked over 10 months, with selected respondents - typically the household head - completing interviews every 8 weeks. Monitoring the well-being of households over time will improve understanding of the effects of, and household responses to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in near-real time.
The Socioeconomic Impacts of COVID-19 on Households in Cambodia, Report No. 2: Results from the High-Frequency Phone Survey of Households, Round 2

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-11) Karamba, Wendy ; Tong, Kimsun

This brief summarizes the findings of round 2 (R2) of the high-frequency phone survey (HFPS) of households. The information presented is based on a sample of 1,667 households, of which 612 were drawn from the nationally representative living standard measurement study plus (LSMS+) and 1,055 from the list of beneficiaries of the conditional cash transfer program for pregnant women and children under 2 with an IDPoor equity card (IDPoor sample). IDPoor is Cambodia’s national poverty identification program and official targeting mechanism for programs that support the poor. Unless otherwise noted, the results presented are primarily drawn from the LSMS sample. The results of R2 implemented August to September 2020 are compared against results of round 1 (R1) implemented May to June 2020 to trace the evolution of key indicators. The same households will be tracked over 10 months, with selected respondents - typically the household head - completing interviews every 8 weeks. Monitoring the well-being of households over time will improve understanding of the effects of, and household responses to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in near-real time.
Papua New Guinea High Frequency Phone Survey on COVID-19: Results from Round 1

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-08-06) World Bank

Papua New Guinea (PNG) is the largest country in the Pacific region, and one of the most diverse countries in the world. The key development challenge in this lower-middle income country is how to translate macroeconomic gains from the resource sector into better opportunities and services for PNG’s largely poor and rural populations. The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has compounded issues for an already weakening economic situation. A strong evidence base is needed to understand the socioeconomic implications of the coronavirus pandemic for Papua New Guinea. Data is needed to inform the policy response to the coronavirus crisis. To monitor and assess the socio-economic impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Papua New Guinea, five rounds of High Frequency Phone Surveys (HFPS) have been planned and will be conducted quarterly. Data collection began in late June 2020. This report presents the findings from round one and concludes with a policy section to help inform an evidence-based response to Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Papua New Guinea.
No One Left Behind: Rural Poverty in Indonesia

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-05) World Bank

Indonesia has sustained robust growth over a long period, and this has enabled millions of citizens to move out of poverty. Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) has risen at an average 5 percent a year since 1990 and 5.3 percent a year after the Asian financial crisis at the end of the 1990s. This growth has been supported by favorable international commodity markets, a large, young population, and a solid macroeconomic policy framework. Although the growth has moderated in the last few years as commodity prices and global financing conditions that had buoyed growth previously have become less favorable, annual GDP growth has still averaged 5 percent since 2014. As a result, GDP per capita is calculated to have grown six fold between 1990 and 2018, while extreme poverty declined from 57 percent to slightly less than 6 percent. However, many Indonesians remain vulnerable, and most of those who have escaped poverty still lack the economic security and well-being of the middle class. Despite the progress in poverty reduction, around 30 percent of Indonesians still risk falling back into poverty or become poor following a financial or nonfinancial shock. In addition, although their number is growing, fewer than a quarter of Indonesians are today free from worry about monetary poverty and therefore belong to the middle or upper class. Joining the middle class is associated with people who have additional disposable income for discretionary expenditures, such as on health care, education, and housing, which directly affect their well-being. While rural areas have also benefited from this broad-based growth, an overwhelming majority of the poor and vulnerable are living in rural areas. Making continued progress in reducing poverty will require that the challenges to improving the living conditions of the poor in rural areas are addressed. Against this backdrop, the objective of this report is to update the knowledge about rural poverty in Indonesia. The report analyzes the trends in rural poverty and inequality, the profile of the rural poor, and drivers of observed poverty reduction. New analysis is combined with syntheses of recent work, especially the recent report on urbanization. The goal is to consolidate relevant material on rural poverty. The final section of the report offers some reflections on future research to deepen the understanding of the challenges and the opportunities involved in reducing rural poverty in Indonesia.
Aspiring Indonesia—Expanding the Middle Class

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-09) World Bank

Indonesia has seen tremendous progress in poverty reduction over the past couple of decades and, as a result, has made a successful transition from low-income to middle-income country status. As millions have moved out of poverty and extreme poverty, we have also witnessed the rise of Indonesia’s middle class, which now accounts for 20 percent of the total population, or 52 million Indonesians. This group important for Indonesia’s upward trajectory, but it still too small for the ambitions of Indonesia. Expanding the middle class will boost economic growth, strengthen an influential constituency for better governance, and widen and deepen the tax base. An expansion of the middle class, if accompanied by continued growth in the incomes of the poor and vulnerable, will also help to decrease inequality and prevent polarization of the country. One of the key development questions that Indonesia faces is how to expand the middle class. What will be required to bring the 115 million people who are no longer in poverty and vulnerability into the middle class? The future of Indonesia lies partly in the fate of this aspiring middle class, 45 percent of the population, so that they can both share in and help to drive the country’s growing prosperity. Government policy can play an instrumental role in expanding the middle class. This can be done by increasing the level and quality of education, and the skills of the population, and making sure there are well-paid jobs waiting for those in the aspiring middle class. It also means ensuring access to social protection to help lift these aspirers into the middle class and keep them there once they arrive, as well as improving the quality of the public services upon which they currently depend. Resolve to expand the middle class will place greater stress on government budgets. The government will need increasingly rely on the middle class, whose income taxes will finance much of the investment that a growing Indonesia will need. This will require a new social contract with the current – and future – middle class so that they will embrace the policies that both benefit themselves while also helping to expand their ranks, rather than closing off opportunities for others, and creating political polarization—as has occurred in some countries in the region in recent years.
Developing Gender-Disaggregated Poverty Small Area Estimates: Technical Report

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06-18) World Bank

Small area estimates of poverty and inequality statistics, through survey-to-census imputation that lets consumption be estimated for each and every household in a census, are useful for at least three reasons. First, they can help improve the effectiveness of public spending, by targeting to prevent the leakage of benefits to the non-poor (and prevent the under-coverage of the poor). If poor people are concentrated in certain areas, spatial targeting by directing extra development projects and public services to those areas, may be more feasible than trying to individually target the poor. Geographic targeting is highly relevant in countries like Timor Leste, where mountainous topography contributes to high levels of heterogeneity. In similar environments, such as Papua New Guinea, the enclave nature of some modern economic development has created high levels of spatial inequality. The basic details are that household survey data are used to estimate a model of consumption, with explanatory variables restricted to those that have overlapping distributions from a census. The coefficients from this model are then combined with the variables from the census, and consumption is predicted for each household in the census. With these predictions available for all households, inequality and poverty statistics can be estimated for small geographic areas (Elbers et al, 2003).2 In the results below, the poverty statistics that are calculated by using the predicted consumption data for each census household are reported at the suco level (n=442). For the headcount poverty rate, the standard errors at the suco level (relative to the poverty index) average one-quarter and so this is a comparable degree of precision to what the survey offered at the municipality level (n=13) for a variable like the poverty severity index.