Other Poverty Study

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2021 Compounding Misfortunes: An Update to the Study

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-03) World Bank Group ; UNHCR ; World Food Programme ; Joint Data Center on Forced Displacement

COVID-19 (coronavirus) has had an enormous impact on nearly every country in the world. However, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon were already facing difficult to extreme circumstances even before the pandemic erupted, making them particularly vulnerable. This report looks at the impact of the pandemic, associated lockdowns and economic shocks and other misfortunes which have compounded the crisis, such as sharply lower oil revenues in Iraq and the Port of Beirut explosion in Lebanon, as well as political instability in both. The report estimates that 4.4 million people in the host communities and 1.1 million refugees or IDPs were driven into poverty in the immediate aftermath of the crisis, and while this considers all of Lebanon, it only includes three governorates in Jordan and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, due to data limitations. A response commensurate with the magnitude of the shock is needed to prevent further misery. The poverty impact of COVID-19 and the ensuing confinement policies and economic contractions have been felt throughout the world, not least by marginalized communities. However, COVID-19 has compounded existing vulnerabilities or crises in Jordan, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) and Lebanon. Syrian refugees – most of whom have been displaced for up to nine years – are particularly exposed given their perilous pre-crisis situation. Host communities in these three countries, who have supported and accommodated such large numbers of refugees, have also been heavily affected; all three countries were in strained positions prior to COVID-19, ranging from economic stagnation and high public debt in Jordan, to a collapse in public revenues due to international oil price shocks in KRI, to complete political and economic crisis in Lebanon. By March 2020, all three countries had witnessed their first cases of COVID-19 and introduced stringent containment policies ranging from partial closures of schools and shops to full curfew. While these measures were initially largely successful in containing the spread of the pandemic, they also led to a decline in economic activity across most sectors, particularly in the informal market. In Jordan and Iraq, the losses are estimated at around 8.2 and 10.5 percent of 2019’s GDP respectively. In Lebanon where the COVID-19 crisis is compounded by economic and political crises the losses are much higher, around 25 percent of GDP. Lebanon has experienced inflation of over 100 percent, largely due to its import dependence and currency depreciation. Unsurprisingly, given the magnitude of these shocks, recent rapid needs assessments and UNHCR administrative data show that refugees, who are highly concentrated in low-skilled jobs in the informal sector, have had to reduce food intake, incur additional debt and in some instances suffered eviction.
Living Conditions and Settlement Decisions of Recent Afghan Returnees: Findings from a 2018 Phone Survey of Afghan Returnees and UNHCR Data

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06) World Bank Group ; UNHCR

This report is the result of a collaboration between the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the Poverty and Equity Global Practice of the World Bank Group (WBG). Repatriation or the return of refugees to their country of origin has been rarely studied, and data on their socio-economic outcomes is sparsely available. In such a context, the World Bank and UNHCR teams attempted to make good use of the existing data sources and complemented it with new data collection methods to better understand the patterns and characteristics of recent Afghan refugee returns. More specifically, the team attempted to analytically connect insights between different data sources to explore (albeit imperfectly) questions of selection among Afghans who remained in Pakistan and those documented returnees who returned to Afghanistan.
Informing Durable Solutions for Internal Displacement in Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan: Country Case Studies

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-04-18) World Bank Group

Understanding forced displacement and developing effective solutions requires closing several critical gaps in the data. With forced displacement rising worldwide, the body of work on displacement is growing rapidly. Data on internally displaced persons (IDPs) are particularly problematic, as the distinction between IDPs and internal migrants are not consistent across countries, and as the presence and number of IDPs is often politicized. While efforts have been made to create standardized frameworks for collecting quantitative data on forced displacement, important data gaps persist. This study helps to close data gaps by using micro-level data to profile IDPs. The report uses micro-data, defined as individual and household-level data that is collected directly through personal interviews. Comprehensive micro-data surveys cover IDP populations in four countries in Sub Saharan Africa: Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan. The micro-data surveys represent IDPs, refugees, and non-displaced populations. The analysis is guided by the durable solutions indicator framework while the policy insights focus on overcoming displacement-induced vulnerability. The analysis examines the demographic structure of IDP and resident populations and draws on reasons triggering displacement.
Mauritius: Earnings Mobility and Inequality of Opportunity in the Labor Market

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-03-22) World Bank Group

This report sheds light on the extent to which earnings mobility and inequality of opportunity in access to the labor market have contributed to the increase in earnings inequality in Mauritius. Among the most important concerns about rising inequality is a situation where people become trapped in low-paying jobs and do not have the opportunity to improve their welfare through their own efforts. For this reason, this report takes a closer look at the extent and nature of earnings mobility and inequality of opportunity in the Mauritian labor market.
South Caucasus in Motion

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-01) World Bank Group

The people of the South Caucasus aspire for their countries to become strong middle-class societies, and they are on track to make that aspiration a reality. Two decades of social and economic progress have changed the societies of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. The notable improvements that people in the region have experienced are reflected in better living standards that allowed poverty to be reduced by half in the 12 years between 2005 and 2017. Yet, to consolidate middle-class societies, the governments of the South Caucasus need to do more to achieve the stability and resilience enjoyed by their more advanced peers in Europe and Central Asia. Sustainable economic growth, poverty reduction, and shared prosperity require that the full potential of all geographical and administrative areas, population groups, and economic sectors be realized. This boo analyzes spatial, social, and economic mobility in the South Caucasus. The book argues that Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia have not yet integrated important geographical areas and population segments in full economic participation and social development. Economic gains have not been uniformly and equitably translated into greater welfare and opportunity among all households and individuals. The main conclusion is that sustainable growth, poverty reduction, and the consolidation of the middle class require that the institutional and physical foundations of greater and more equitable economic and social mobility be secured in the South Caucasus. Understanding and removing the constraints to the development of lagging districts; leveraging opportunities for agglomeration; linking geographical areas, peoples, and markets; fostering equality in access to better jobs; and making sure that high-quality education and basic services are available to all individuals and areas are crucial.
Mauritius Addressing Inequality through More Equitable Labor Markets

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-03-26) World Bank Group

Mauritius is often cited as one of the few African success stories, and with good reason. In the aftermath of independence (1968), this small island nation in the Indian Ocean seemed to be bound for economic failure because of its high poverty rate and numerous vulnerabilities, including high population growth, ethnic tensions, substantial unemployment, and an economy greatly dependent on the production of sugar for international markets. However, Mauritius was successful in diversifying the economy and accomplishing an unprecedented structural transformation.The Inclusiveness of Growth and Shared Prosperity report (World Bank 2015a) turned the spotlight on the expanding gap of inequality in household incomes that occurred between 2007 and 2012 and on the negative impact on poverty. The report estimates that the incidence of absolute poverty between 2007 and 2012 would have declined twice as quickly had growth been shared more widely and inequality not worsened. Building on these earlier findings, this study investigates the driving forces behind the growing income inequality and identifies policy levers that could mitigate and, in the long run, possibly reverse the upward trend.This study takes a comprehensive approach to the determinants of inequality by including the role of the choices of households and individuals, markets, and institutions. The report is structured as follows. Chapter one sets the stage by presenting stylized facts on the trends in household income inequality between 2001 and 2015, comparing these trends with trends in consumption inequality, and identifying the main culprit behind the rapidly rising inequality in household incomes, that is, household labor income. Chapter two supplies a set of descriptive trends of the two groups of factors, namely, household demographics and labor market forces, that contribute to changes in household laborincome and follows up with a decomposition exercise on changes in household labor income between 2001 and 2015.Because the analysis indicates that an unequal increase in female labor force participation and rising inequality in individual earnings are among the main contributors to the expanding inequality in household labor income, Chapter three takes a deep dive into the issue of gender inequality in the labor market. The chapter illustrates the gender gap in labor market participation, describes the differences in the activities of working women in the labor market relative to men, and concludes with a detailed analysis of gender gaps in wages separately in the public and private sectors. Chapter four resumes the main analysis of the drivers of increasing inequality in individual earnings. The chapter first presents stylized facts about overall inequality in wages and then separates out changes in inequality between and within groups defined by demographic characteristics. The chapter distinguishes the role of changes in prices (or wages) and the role of changes in the composition of the workforce in rising earnings inequality. The second part of the chapter is devoted to the analysis of the role of the main potential drivers of expanding earnings inequality. The possible candidates include the interaction of changes in labor supply and labor demand, giving rise to skills shortages or surpluses, and changes in labor market institutions, namely, remuneration orders (ROs). The chapter concludes with an analysis of an additional source of skills mismatches among the employed population, namely, education mismatches, and advances potential explanations for the coexistence of a substantial skills shortage, over education, particularly among youth, and a large share of highly educated youth among the unemployed.
Snapshot of Poverty and Labor Market Outcomes in Lebanon Based on Household Budget Survey 2011-2012

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-05) Central Administration for Statistics ; World Bank Group

This brief is based on analysis of the 2011-12 household budget survey (HBS) implemented by Central Administration for Statistics (CAS) with technical assistance from the World Bank. The survey was conducted during the period of September 2011 to November 2012, and was stratified across nine regions. The sample was designed to cover 4,805 households, but due to high non-response, it only includes 2,476 participating households. Poverty numbers presented in this note are not comparable with poverty estimates for other years due to differences in the instruments, fieldwork implementation and to some extent sample design; and also due to differences in the methodology for constructing welfare aggregate and the poverty line. All regional estimates in this report should be viewed with caution given concerns about significant levels of nonresponse and relatively small sample sizes within regions. CAS and the World Bank are working together to improve the quality of future surveys.
Mauritius: Inclusiveness of Growth and Shared Prosperity

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-09) World Bank Group

Mauritius is a high middle-income country with low levels of poverty and inequality. The headcount poverty level was 6.9 percent in 2012; measured by the international standard of United States (U.S.) $2 per day (PPP), poverty was less than 1 percent. On inequality, Mauritius also fared well compared to its peer middle-income countries. On the negative side, Mauritius’ growth has not been equally shared, despite the general improvement in welfare. The economy’s polarization was associated with a structural transformation from labor-intensive industries to services and knowledge-intensive industries. Inclusiveness remains the main challenge for the current growth pattern. When Mauritius will be able to become a high-income country will depend on its ability to improve the labor force’s skill set, develop infrastructure, and further improve the business environment to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) and generate domestic investment. Reduction in inequality and boost of shared prosperity will require more growth and a more pro-poor pattern of growth. An increase in female labor force participation, reduction of high youth unemployment rates, improving the efficiency of the social protection system will reduce growing skills mismatch facilitating inclusive growth and eradicating poverty in Mauritius.
Analysis of Potential Work Disincentive Effects of the Monthly Benefit for Poor Families in the Kyrgyz Republic

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-04-29) World Bank Group

The objective of this report was to address the concerns with respect to potential disincentive effects to labor participation of the only poverty-targeted social protection program in the Kyrgyz Republic, the Monthly Benefit for Poor Families with Children (MBPF). The benefit provided by the program is the only social assistance transfer in the Kyrgyz Republic specifically targeted at extremely poor households with children. It is a means-tested transfer that provides monthly cash benefits to lift per capita income of each child in eligible households to the Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI). The report examines the MBPF from different angles. First, the report reviews the design features of the MBPF, focusing on the targeting method and the size of the benefit, with respect to household incomes, consumption and formal and informal wages by economic sector. Secondly, it compares the demographic profile, including labor force participation outcomes, of MBPF beneficiaries to that of non-beneficiaries. The comparison of the labor force participation status of beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries focus on the group of people which could be expected to be economically active and have children. The reference group is comprised of the able-bodied working age population (aged 18-62 years old), excluding full time students, living in households with children under 18 years old. Thirdly, it empirically analyzes the potential disincentives for labor force participation of the MBPF, using a quasi-experimental method to analyze the difference in labor market outcomes between MBPF beneficiaries and individuals with similar characteristics, but which are not receiving a transfer.
Poverty and Economic Mobility in the Kyrgyz Republic: Some Insights from the Life in Kyrgyzstan Survey

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-04-27) World Bank Group

This report focuses on the economic mobility of individuals (and corresponding households) belonging to the bottom 40 percent of the Kyrgyz population. This is indeed the target population chosen by the World Bank Group for the achievement of its second and twin goal of shared prosperity (the first one remaining poverty reduction). Moreover, in the specific case of the Kyrgyz Republic total poverty rates in the period under analysis ranged between 34 and 37 percent, thus making the poverty and bottom 40 percent pools almost identical. For each selected transition group, the report depicts a detailed profile of corresponding main socio-economic characteristics. Four transition groups were in particular identified: (i) those who were found to be stuck in the bottom 40 percent in both 2010 and 2011; (ii) those who managed to move up from the bottom 40 percent in 2011; (iii) those who entered the bottom 40 percent in 2011, and (iv) those who managed to stay in the top 60 percent in both years under analysis. The evidence shows a few significant differences among these four groups in terms of both households’ invariant and individual characteristics.