Commission on Growth and Development
74 items available
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The Growth Commission’s reports identify the ingredients that, if used in the right country-specific recipe, can deliver growth and help lift populations out of poverty. The Commission, consisting of 19 experienced leaders and 2 Nobel prize-winning economists, has released several commission reports, thematic volumes, and background working papers. The spring 2010 volume is the final book from the Commission. The Commission is succeeded by The Growth Dialogue.
Items in this collection
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Publication
Africa's Growth Turnaround: From Fewer Mistakes to Sustained Growth
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009)After stagnating for much of its postcolonial history, economic performance in Sub?Saharan Africa has markedly improved. Since 1995, average economic growth has been close to 5 percent per year. Has Africa finally turned the corner? This paper analyzes growth accelerations and decelerations-that is, country level deviations from long?run trend growth. Seen from this perspective, Africa's record of slow and volatile growth reflects a pattern of offsetting accelerations and declines, and much of the improvement in economic performance in Africa post 1995 turns out to be due to a substantial reduction in the frequency and severity of growth decelerations. The fall in economic declines since 1995 is largely due to better macroeconomic policies, but changes in such 'growth determinants' as investment, export diversification, and productivity have not accompanied the growth boom. Lack of change in these variables and the significant role played by natural resources in sparking growth accelerations suggest that Africa's growth recovery was fragile, even before the recent global economic crisis. The paper concludes by setting out four elements of a strategy that can help move Africa from fewer mistakes to sustained growth: managing natural resources better, pushing nontraditional exports, building the African private sector, and creating new skills. -
Publication
Africa's Growth Turnaround: From Fewer Mistakes to Sustained Growth
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009)After stagnating for much of its postcolonial history, economic performance in Sub?Saharan Africa has markedly improved. Since 1995, average economic growth has been close to 5 percent per year. Has Africa finally turned the corner? This paper analyzes growth accelerations and decelerations-that is, country level deviations from long?run trend growth. Seen from this perspective, Africa's record of slow and volatile growth reflects a pattern of offsetting accelerations and declines, and much of the improvement in economic performance in Africa post 1995 turns out to be due to a substantial reduction in the frequency and severity of growth decelerations. The fall in economic declines since 1995 is largely due to better macroeconomic policies, but changes in such 'growth determinants' as investment, export diversification, and productivity have not accompanied the growth boom. Lack of change in these variables and the significant role played by natural resources in sparking growth accelerations suggest that Africa's growth recovery was fragile, even before the recent global economic crisis. The paper concludes by setting out four elements of a strategy that can help move Africa from fewer mistakes to sustained growth: managing natural resources better, pushing nontraditional exports, building the African private sector, and creating new skills. -
Publication
Leadership for Growth, Development, and Poverty Reduction: An African Viewpoint and Experience
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008)The point of this paper is to emphasize the importance and role of leadership for African growth, development, and poverty reduction. It is also an attempt to project a more objective assessment of leadership issues during the first three to four decades of African independence. Agreeing on shared responsibilities for Africa's failures in its early years will enable all who want to take part in the continent's renewal to focus on the partnership that is now needed to close a sad chapter in Africa's history, and open a new one. The core elements of such a partnership have evolved in the last decade, and this paper argues passionately for the political will, in Africa and outside, for their realization. -
Publication
Policy and Institutional Dynamics of Sustained Development in Botswana
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008)Botswana represents one of the few development success stories in Sub-Saharan Africa. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth averaged almost 9 percent between 1960 and 2005, far above the Sub-Saharan Africa average. Real GDP per capita grew even faster, averaging more than 10 percent a year -- the most rapid economic growth of any country in the world. The crucial question is: Why has Botswana grown the way it has done, and what lessons does it offer? This evidence-based story is an account of policy and institutional dynamics of sustained growth and development in Botswana -- illuminating the role of leadership. It shows how a secure political elite has pursued growth-promoting policies and developed, modified, and maintained viable inherited traditional and modern institutions of political, economic, and legal restraint. These institutions have remained robust in the face of initial large aid inflows and spectacular mineral rents, producing a growth pattern that has been both rapid and cautious. The nature of the Botswana developmental state is illustrated by the way in which the state mobilized development resources-especially savings, investment, and human resources, widely known as the primary drivers of economic growth, and prudently managed the economy without becoming excessively involved in the nuts. It demonstrates that through intentional policy choices and countercyclical instruments, countries can shift from aid-dependent to trade-led natural resource development (though probably with narrow-based growth), to a broader development strategy as long as the state is capable and operates within effective institutional design. Botswana's story is sterling example of how the critical issue in development is not so much access to resources but how resources are managed. -
Publication
Growth in Senegal: The 1995-2005 Experience
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008)Following several years of disappointing economic performance, Senegal has made an important turnaround, with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth averaging over 5 percent annually during 1995-2005. This paper shows that macroeconomic and structural reforms are key factors explaining this recovery. Drivers of sound economic policy decisions in Senegal have included enhanced democratic processes, political commitment to the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), and donor community conditionalities. -
Publication
Policy Change and Economic Growth: A Case Study of South Africa
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008)South Africa's growth experience provides an example of how contrasting growth trends long-term decline followed by improved growth pivot around political change, in this case a transition to democracy. In the decade prior to 1994, South Africa experienced the worst period of economic growth since the end of the Second World War, with growth variable and declining. The proximate causes of slowing growth were trade and financial sanctions in opposition to the Apartheid government, political instability and macroeconomic policy decisions that resulted in higher inflation, increased uncertainty, and declining investment. Democracy has proved critical for, among other factors, creating the possibility of a peaceful and more stable future and reversing investor sentiment at a basic level. Political and economic leadership have been essential for improving the country's growth performance because of the effect on policy formulation, institutional development, regulatory design, and economic vision. Prudent fiscal policy and sound macroeconomic management have been critical factors in creating an environment conducive to growth by stabilizing economic conditions, lowering the user cost of capital, and putting downward pressure on the real exchange rate. This case study provides some insight into a more general perspective on political and economic transition and some of the key macro- and microeconomic policy shifts that need to occur to realize a more rapid and sustained growth path. -
Publication
Leadership, Policy Making, Quality of Economic Policies, and Their Inclusiveness: The Case of Rwanda
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008)This paper analyzes the role of the leadership in the economic growth in Rwanda, a country that was seriously affected by civil war and the 1994 genocide. It appears that the will and the clear vision of the leadership in Rwanda were one of the central pillars of the very good economic and social performances in Rwanda. This is particularly important because the country has almost no natural resources and the economy and its fundamentals were completely destroyed by the 1994 genocide. This paper thus helps enrich the various economic growth models by stressing the importance of the quality of leadership. -
Publication
Growth Strategies for Africa
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008)Over the past four decades Africa has diverged from other developing regions and is now the poorest region in the world. This paper offers an explanation of Africa's slow growth in terms of its distinctive economic and human geography: its high dependence upon natural resource exports, the many landlocked countries, and the high ethnic diversity of the typical state. It discusses how key economic policy choices, especially trade and fiscal policy, and assistance from the international community, need to tailored specifically to these distinctive circumstances. Part one of this paper sets out an explanation for why this happened and whether it is likely to recur, using the building blocks of economic geography. Africa is distinctive both in its physical geography and its human geography and these have shaped its opportunities. Part one has three sections. Section two considers the implications of Africa's distinctive physical geography. It accounts for some of Africa's slow growth and suggests how strategies will need to differ radically among Africa's countries. In section three author turn to its distinctive human geography and the political problems that this has created. To a considerable extent these problems recently have been surmounted: Africa's human geography may explain delayed take-off rather than predict persistent stagnation. Finally, in section four, author consider three interactions between physical geography and human geography that generate intractable problems that are likely to require both regional action and international assistance in various forms. Part two uses the analysis of part one to consider policy options. Section five discusses options for African governments. Section six focuses on the supporting actions that can be taken by governments outside Africa and by international agencies. Section seven offers a brief conclusion.