Mineral Resources and Development

2010-06, Bacon, Robert, Bhattacharya, Soma, Kojima, Masami

Patterns of household energy use and expenditure have been the subject of a large number of studies. Household expenditures on energy-particularly, how much the poor spend-have policy implications for several reasons. First, policies to mitigate or cope with energy price shocks are increasingly focusing on targeted support to low-income households as a way of limiting the fiscal cost of such policies while offering protection to the most vulnerable members of society. Second, for governments looking to reform energy price subsidies, the effects on household welfare- especially effects on poor households-of price increases resulting from subsidy reduction/removal is an important policy consideration. But subsidies for liquid fuels targeting the poor are difficult to design and implement effectively, because liquid fuels tend to be used more by the rich than by the poor, and are also easy to transport (and hence to divert to non-poor users). For this reason, there is a growing recognition of the need to move away from price subsidies for liquid fuels to alternative forms of targeted assistance to compensate the poor for the adverse effects of higher fuel prices. Third, in areas where many households have not yet begun using modern commercial energy regularly, the amount they can afford to pay for such energy services is a relevant question. Quantifying expenditures on different types of energy at varying income levels provides a basis for addressing these questions. The paper also examines expenditures on motorized passenger transport and food, two items for which the price of oil is an important component of their cost structure and which are consequential in the budget of poor households.

2009-06, Bacon, Robert, Bhattacharya, Soma, Kojima, Masami

This paper applies a decomposition technique using a log mean Divisia index to two sets of household surveys taken several years apart in Indonesia and Pakistan. The methodology enables separation of changes in expenditure on different types of energy into changes in prices, quantities, the share of households using the given form of energy, and total household income. The technique was applied to electricity, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), kerosene, and gasoline in Indonesia, and to natural gas, kerosene, LPG, purchased firewood, collected firewood, dung cake, and other forms of biomass in Pakistan. The methods of analysis presented in this paper could be extended to other commodities or to changes in energy use patterns over longer periods of time, where suitable household expenditure surveys are available. In particular, when household surveys covering the period of high oil prices become available, the analysis of changing household patterns of fuel use will be valuable. The availability of evidence on the use of energy by various household groups will be important for considerations of providing targeted support to low-income households at times of unexpected shocks to energy prices.

2010-06, Bacon, Robert, Kojima, Masami

This paper aims to provide those working in developing countries with a review of the issues that can help address the four questions: 1) are petroleum product margins excessively high at certain times?; 2) Does asymmetry of price responses to cost changes exist and, if so, what are the possible reasons that could account for it?; 3) If there is asymmetry of petroleum product price responsiveness, how large is the cost to consumers compared with symmetric pricing?; And 4) what policies can combat excessive petroleum product margins? The discussion focuses mainly on liberalized markets, because, in markets subject to price control, the pattern of responses of prices to cost changes will be determined partially or largely by the Government. Chapter one describes asymmetric pricing and the structure of the oil market, focusing in particular on the links between the retail sector and the rest of the chain of supply. The chapter next briefly reviews types of legislation that exist in liberalized markets to protect consumers from monopolistic or collusive behavior in petroleum products pricing. Chapter two describes different types of firms' pricing behavior, including both collusive and non collusive behavior, and provides an overview of how lags in pricing behavior arise and the reasons they can lead to asymmetry. Following this section on theories, econometric studies testing for the presence of asymmetric pricing are reviewed, with special reference to those studies carried out in developing countries. Based on these models, a sample calculation of the extra costs to the consumer of asymmetric pricing relative to those under symmetric pricing is given, including an illustration based on a specially constructed estimate for Guatemala. Chapter three provides an overview of policy responses to asymmetric pricing.

2008-08, Bacon, Robert, Kojima, Masami

This paper examines the levels of and changes in vulnerability to oil price increases between 1996 and 2006 in 161 countries for which data are available. Vulnerability defined here as the ratio of the value of net oil imports to gross domestic product (GDP) rises if oil consumption increases and oil production decreases per unit of GDP. By comparing the level of vulnerability of different economies at a point in time, those that are particularly vulnerable to oil price increases can be highlighted. This enables consideration of the factors (variables) that help determine the magnitude of vulnerability. Over time economies change in ways that may make them more vulnerable to oil price increases or less so, and the change in vulnerability will be related to changes in the underlying variables. The analysis this paper uses is a starting point for linking these factors. The study also examined changes in vulnerability by subdividing the period under review into two sub-periods, 1996-2001 and 2001-6. The oil price increase during the first sub-period was small, and correspondingly the change in vulnerability was also limited. The change in vulnerability was greater during the second sub-period, which saw a 2.5-fold price increase in nominal U.S. dollars. This paper highlights the role of changes in the oil share of energy and of energy intensity, both of which can be influenced by government policies, and also by oil production, which, even though it is largely a function of geology, can also be affected by a country's upstream fiscal, contractual, and regulatory frameworks.

2009-10, Kojima, Masami, Bacon, Robert

The continued growth of global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their likely adverse effects on global warming are focusing debate on the contribution of various countries to total emissions and the comparability of efforts across countries in mitigating these emissions. This paper examines recent trends in CO2 emissions across countries at different levels of development and asks what has been contributing to the growth of emissions as well as to their moderation. The paper applies a decomposition analysis, an accounting methodology based on a log mean Divisia index, to analyze the change in CO2 emissions over a decade.