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PublicationTanzania Country Program Evaluation: Approach Paper(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-10-03) Independent Evaluation GroupThe Country Program Evaluation (CPE) for Tanzania assesses the World Bank Group’s effectiveness and relevance in its work to help Tanzania address its key development challenges. The CPE will encompass two Bank Group strategy periods covering fiscal years (FY)12–16 and FY18–22. The evaluation aims to inform the next Bank Group Country Partnership Framework for Tanzania. PublicationPutting a Price on Safety: A Hedonic Price Approach to Flood Risk in African Cities(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-07) Erman, Alvina; Dallmann, IngridThis paper uses a hedonic property price function to estimate the relationship between flood risk and rents in four Sub-Saharan Africa cities: Accra, Antananarivo, Dar es Salaam, and Addis Ababa. The analysis relies on household survey data collected after flood events in the cities. Flood risk is measured with self-reported data on past flood exposure and perception of future risk of flooding of households. The study finds that flood risk is associated with lower rents in Accra, Antananarivo, Dar es Salaam, and Addis Ababa, ranging from 14 to 56 percent lower. In contrast, risk is associated with higher rent in Dar es Salaam, which could be potentially attributed to a combination of lack of awareness of flood risk among renters, high transaction costs and omitted variable bias. For example, only 12 percent of households living in flood-prone areas were aware of the flood risk when they moved in. In Antananarivo, job density is associated with higher rents while in Accra and Addis Ababa, higher job density is associated with lower rents. Results are negative but not significant in Dar es Salaam. When interacting job density with flood risk for each city, the negative effect of job density on rents is higher (in absolute value) when flood risk is high in Accra and Addis Ababa, and the positive effect of job density on rents becomes negative when flood risk is high in Antananarivo. This relationship is not found in Dar es Salaam. The finding seems to suggest that access to jobs is an important factor driving people to settle in flood-prone areas. PublicationTanzania Agriculture Public Expenditure Review(Washington, DC, 2022-06-22) World Bank; FAOThe World Bank and FAO teamed up with the Government of Tanzania to produce the country’s first agricultural public expenditure review (PER) since the launch of the country’s second agriculture sector development program (ASDP II). After outlining the role and performance of the sector (crop, livestock, fisheries, and forestry) in Tanzania and its main policy frameworks, this report uses historical data from 2017 to 2022 to review the level and composition of public expenditure. It then analyzes its allocative efficiency, effectiveness and alignment with the Government’s strategic sectoral goals as defined in Tanzania Vision 2025 and the ASDP II. To do so, it combines a price incentive analysis on key value chains, thematic deep dives on strategic areas for the government (irrigation, agricultural knowledge system, seed system, climate change adaptation), and a coherence analysis. The report unveils that agricultural public budget mostly targets public goods in Tanzania, but at a level too critically low for these to materialize and support sustainable productivity growth and job creation. Detailed actionable recommendations are proposed for the government to improve spending on the agricultural sector to leverage further its growth potential. PublicationTwo Sides of Gender: Sex, Power, and Adolescence(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-06) Shah, Manisha; Seager, Jennifer; Montalvao, Joao; Goldstein, MarcusAdolescents in Sub-Saharan Africa have some of the highest rates of intimate partner violence across the globe. This paper evaluates the impact of a randomized controlled trial that offers females a goal setting activity to improve their sexual and reproductive health outcomes and offers their male partners a soccer intervention, which educates and inspires young men to make better sexual and reproductive health choices. Both interventions reduce female reports of intimate partner violence. Impacts are larger among females who were already sexually active at baseline. The paper develops a game theoretic model to understand the mechanisms at play. In line with the model, the soccer intervention improves male attitudes around violence and sexual and reproductive health and reduces sexual activity. In the goal setting arm, females take more control of their sexual and reproductive health by exiting violent relationships. Females in this arm have higher quality partners at endline. PublicationTanzania - Re-positioning Health Service Delivery in Response to the Changing Disease Burden(Washington, DC, 2022-03) World BankOver the last two decades, Tanzania has registered improvement in the health status of the population and a reduction in the overall disease burden. However, the burden of communicable diseases and maternal and child health conditions, including nutrition, remains persistently high. These conditions can be prevented and treated with existing affordable and cost-effective interventions but remain major public health problems. Besides the persistently high burden of communicable diseases, Tanzania is witnessing a growing burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and is at risk of a protracted, full-fledged double burden of disease. The study assessed the current and future trajectory of the disease burden, assessed the organization and performance of the health care delivery system in responding to the disease burden, and identified actions that Tanzania would need to employ to address the major causes of disease burden so that they may cease to be major public health problems. PublicationThe World Bank’s Support for Subnational Governance through Conditional Grants: Lessons Learned from Brazil, Indonesia, and Tanzania(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022) Garoni, Samuel Ruben Alexander; Stoykov, Petar Georgiev; Yilmaz, SerdarThis note presents lessons learned from three ongoing World Bank PforR projects in - Brazil, Indonesia, and Tanzania - which were highlighted in the Primer Conditional Grants in ‘Principle, in Practice and in Operations’. It is aimed to complement the theory presented in the primer and it targets Task Team Leaders designing WB projects with a decentralization component or that wish to include conditional grant schemes to enhance results at the local level. The projects were all launched in the past few years and reflect the current understanding of the challenges and opportunities of conditional grants. PublicationMultidimensionality of Land Ownership among Men and Women in Sub-Saharan Africa(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-01) Hasanbasri, Ardina; Kilic, Talip; Koolwal, Gayatri; Moylan, HeatherAcross Sub-Saharan African countries with customary tenure systems and low levels of documented land ownership, there are limited nationally representative insights on men and women landowners’ rights over land. Variations in institutions and norms governing land ownership further complicate cross-country comparisons. Using machine learning techniques and nationally representative, intrahousehold survey data elicited in private from men and women on their ownership of assets, this paper creates unique profiles of landowners in Ethiopia, Malawi, and Tanzania, anchored in a range of constructs related to self-reported rights and control over land parcels. The analysis reveals a high degree of cross-country consistency in the new insights. Landowners, particularly women, often do not have full rights and decision-making power over land. Multiple correspondence analysis demonstrates that transfer rights (rights to bequeath, sell, rent out, and use as collateral) contribute the most to the variation in the composition of the constructs related to rights and control over land. Hierarchical clustering shows that landowners can effectively be clustered into three categories: (1) owners with mostly exclusive transfer rights, (2) owners with mostly joint transfer rights, and (3) owners with no/limited transfer rights. Owners with transfer rights tend to have all other rights and measures of control. Women are overrepresented in the cluster of landowners with no/limited transfer rights, and in moving from the cluster with mostly joint transfer rights to the one with mostly exclusive transfer rights, the increase in the share of individuals not needing permission to exercise any right is considerably greater among women than men. PublicationBuilding State Capacity: What Is the Impact of Development Projects?(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12) Di Maro, Vincenzo; Evans, David K.; Khemani, Stuti; Scot, ThiagoAlthough research has established the importance of state capacity in economic development, less is known about how to build that capacity and the role of external partners in the process. This paper estimates the impact of a typical development project designed to build state capacity in a low-income country. Specifically, it evaluates a multilateral development bank project in Tanzania, which incentivized investments in local state capacity by offering grants conditional on institutional performance scores. The paper uses a difference-in-differences methodology to estimate the project impact, comparing outcomes between 18 project and 22 non-project local governments over 2016–18. Outcomes were measured through two rounds of primary surveys of nearly 500 local government officials and nearly 3,000 households. Over the course of the project, measured state capacity improved in project areas, but due to comparable gains in non-project areas, the project’s value-added to change in state capacity is estimated to be zero across all the dozens of relevant variables in the surveys. The data suggest that state capacity is evolving in Tanzania through endogenous changes in trust and legitimacy in the country rather than from financial incentives offered by external partners. PublicationPoverty Imputation in Contexts without Consumption Data: A Revisit with Further Refinements(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11) Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Carletto, Calogero; Abanokova, KseniyaA key challenge with poverty measurement is that household consumption data are often unavailable or infrequently collected or may be incomparable over time. In a development project setting, it is seldom feasible to collect full consumption data for estimating the poverty impacts. While survey-to-survey imputation is a cost-effective approach to address these gaps, its effective use calls for a combination of both ex-ante design choices and ex-post modeling efforts that are anchored in validated protocols. This paper refines various aspects of existing poverty imputation models using 14 multi-topic household surveys conducted over the past decade in Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Vietnam. The analysis reveals that including an additional predictor that captures household utility consumption expenditures—as part of a basic imputation model with household-level demographic and employment variables—provides poverty estimates that are not statistically significantly different from the true poverty rates. In many cases, these estimates even fall within one standard error of the true poverty rates. Adding geospatial variables to the imputation model improves imputation accuracy on a cross-country basis. Bringing in additional community-level predictors (available from survey and census data in Vietnam) related to educational achievement, poverty, and asset wealth can further enhance accuracy. Yet, there is within-country spatial heterogeneity in model performance, with certain models performing well for either urban areas or rural areas only. The paper provides operationally-relevant and cost-saving inputs into the design of future surveys implemented with a poverty imputation objective and suggests directions for future research. PublicationPreparation, Practice, and Beliefs: A Machine Learning Approach to Understanding Teacher Effectiveness(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11) Filmer, Deon; Sabarwal, ShwetlenaThis paper uses machine learning methods to identify key predictors of teacher effectiveness, proxied by student learning gains linked to a teacher over an academic year. Conditional inference forests and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator are applied to matched student-teacher data for math and Kiswahili from grades 2 and 3 in 392 schools across Tanzania. These two machine learning methods produce consistent results and outperform standard ordinary least squares in out-of-sample prediction by 14–24 percent. As in previous research, commonly used teacher covariates like teacher gender, education, experience, and so forth are not good predictors of teacher effectiveness. Instead, teacher practice (what teachers do, measured through classroom observations and student surveys) and teacher beliefs (measured through teacher surveys) emerge as much more important. Overall, teacher covariates are stronger predictors of teacher effectiveness in math than in Kiswahili. Teacher beliefs that they can help disadvantaged and struggling students learn (for math) and they have good relationships within schools (for Kiswahili), teacher practice of providing written feedback and reviewing key concepts at the end of class (for math), and spending extra time with struggling students (for Kiswahili) are highly predictive of teacher effectiveness. As is teacher preparation on how to teach foundational topics (for both Math and Kiswahili). These results demonstrate the need to pay more systematic attention to teacher preparation, practice, and beliefs in teacher research and policy.