Development Policy Review
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Publication Indonesia : Avoiding the Trap(Jakarta, 2014-05) World BankWithin the next two decades Indonesia aspires to generate prosperity, avoid a middle-income trap and leave no one behind as it tries to catch up with high-income economies. These are ambitious goals. Realizing them requires sustained high growth and job creation, as well as reduced inequality. Can Indonesia achieve them? This report argues that the country has the potential to rise and become more prosperous and equitable. But the risk of 'floating in the middle' is real. Which pathway the economy will take depends on: (i) the adoption of a growth strategy that unleashes the productivity potential of the economy; and (ii) consistent implementation of a few, long-standing, high-priority structural reforms to boost growth and share prosperity more widely. Indonesia is fortunate to have options in financing these reforms without threatening its long-term fiscal outlook. The difficulties lie in getting the reforms implemented in a complex institutional and decentralized framework. But Indonesia cannot afford hard to not try harder. The costs of complacency, and the rewards for action, are too high.Publication Republic of Moldova : Policy Priorities for Private Sector Development(Washington, DC, 2013-06) World BankThe Government of Moldova is seeking to change the country's development paradigm and build an export-oriented economy characterized by investment, innovation, and competitiveness, following a decade of 'jobless growth'. This report focuses on improvements that will be needed to move Moldova to the next stage of development as envisioned in the Moldova 2020 strategy; however, reforms over the past decade also deserve acknowledgment. Improving the business environment is an especially important task, given Moldova's low levels of natural resources and small internal market. This study aims to identify the most pressing problems in the business environment that are adversely affecting Moldovan companies' productivity and competitiveness, and to present recommendations that would help remove these obstacles. The analysis is based on a review of existing reports; interviews with government officials, private sector associations, a sample of businesses, and some subject matter experts; as well as original research on access to finance. This study has identified that the following aspects of doing business are the most problematic: customs administration; tax administration; business regulation, consisting of licenses, authorizations, permits, and inspections; the competition framework; and access to finance. This report presents short-term (2013-2014) and longer-term (2015-2017) recommendations in each of the five priority areas.Publication Georgia Competitive Industries Preliminary Sector Diagnostic(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-06) Onugha, Ifeyinwa; Iootty, Mariana; Kilroy, Austin; Palmade, VincentAs a small and open economy, Georgia's growth prospects are directly linked to its ability to produce and sell goods and services competitively in the global marketplace. The World Bank Georgia Competitive Industries Technical Assistance Project has been launched in February 2013 in response to the December 19, 2012 letter of the Ministry of economy and sustainable development of Georgia with the request to get the Bank's support in diagnoses of trade competitiveness and identification of a road map for reform to enhance Georgia's export growth and competitiveness. The project is envisioned as a three phase program, that comprises: February-June 2013 analytical and technical assistance support, including diagnostic of trade competitiveness and constraints to export growth, and competitive industries sector diagnostic report, supported by extensive discussions through a series of workshops, private and public sector interviews, discussions and a large 2-day seminar on February 28-March 1, 2013; July-December 2013-deep dive analysis of selected competitive industries and development of a reform road map to support Georgia's competiveness strategy; and from January 2013-reform implementation, supported by the Bank's technical assistance, policy advice and lending operations. The report is prepared on the basis of the competitive industries sector prioritisation framework. The report incorporates ideas and recommendations received during February 28-March 1, 2013 seminar and several smaller workshops and brainstorming sessions held in March-May 2013. Export led growth provides also a strong motivation to reform the domestic industries which will continue to account for the vast majority of employment. Georgia's main domestic industries include agriculture, retail/wholesale, construction, transportation, health and education. Since economic growth is accounted for by productivity improvements by workers in all industries, export-led growth can play a key role in raising these productivity levels.Publication Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan - Development Policy Review : Improving Institutions, Fiscal Policies and Structural Reforms for Greater Growth Resilience and Sustained Job Creation (Vol. 2 of 2)(Washington, DC, 2012-06) World BankJordan's quest for long-term, inclusive and sustainable growth has remained largely elusive. By the Growth and Development Commission's measure of success, namely, an average growth rate of 7 percent over 30 years, Jordan's growth record cannot be dubbed 'successful'. This Development Policy Review (DPR) shows that sustaining growth and reducing unemployment is possible: Jordan has a strong human capital base, a large endowment in engineers, doctors, accountants, Information Technology (IT) specialists and a substantial highly-skilled diaspora (500,000 educated Jordanians abroad, 8 percent of the population). Furthermore, the market-oriented reforms of the early 2000s have made Jordan one of the most open economies in the Middle East and North Africa Region and have led to the emergence of dynamic non-traditional sectors (e.g., information and communication technologies, health tourism and business services). What is missing are: (i) an adequate and stable institutional framework for policymaking and long-term business development; (ii) good fiscal policies to manage shocks and maintain macroeconomic stability; good institutions and macroeconomic stability were identified by the growth commission as two of the five common characteristics of successful growth experiences; and (iii) further growth-enhancing structural reforms.Publication De-fragmenting Africa : Deepening Regional Trade Integration in Goods and Services(Washington, DC, 2012-01) World BankThis book is the result of an extensive agenda of analytical work on regional trade integration in Africa involving staff from various units of the Africa region of the World Bank. The aim of this volume is to provide the main messages from this work to a wide audience the private sector, civil society, key ministries, relevant agencies that is necessary to provide the consensus and broad base for successful implementation of reforms. Africa is not achieving its potential in regional trade. The contributions to this volume highlight the enormous scope for increased cross-border trade in Africa and the reasons why such opportunities are not being exploited. The main objective of this introductory chapter is to draw attention to the key reason why Africa's potential for regional trade remains unexploited: the high transaction costs that face those who trade across borders in Africa. The contributions to the volume discuss a wide range of policy related barriers that drive up costs and limit trade. The chapter starts with a review of recent export performance in Africa, noting the strong growth rates in many countries. However, the impact of such growth on employment and poverty has been much muted and important challenges remain, especially with regard to greater diversification of exports, and it is here that effective regional integration that reduces transaction costs can play a key role. The paper then discusses the key barriers that raise costs for traders and continue to fragment the African market. Finally, the paper ends with some specific recommendations for action that policy makers can take at the regional level to support integrated markets in Africa and discusses how the World Bank and other donors can support those wishing to implement the necessary reforms.Publication Egypt - Development Policy Review(Washington, DC, 2008-05) World BankThis development policy review finds ample evidence that Egypt has prospered as a consequence of giving the economy a greater market orientation. While favorable global conditions have helped, the structural changes over the last two decades have been an essential ingredient for Egypt's success. Productivity has risen more in segments of the economy where the private sector s share in investment and output grew most. Empirical estimates done for this report suggest that each dollar of private investment contributed four times more to output than a dollar of public investment, reflecting in part the poor choice and maintenance of public investment. Consequently, further increases in output, incomes and productivity may be expected from the recently rising share of private investment in the total. Public sector productivity has also increased in recent years, reflecting in part the increased importance of state owned firms in petroleum and natural gas. Egypt's economic growth is also now more closely correlated with that of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries magnified by a factor of 1.25, and volatility has declined. This results from many links, not just the direct effect of oil and gas.Publication Philippines : Invigorating Growth, Enhancing Its Impact(Washington, DC, 2007-05) World BankMajor fiscal adjustment during 2005-06, aided by abundant global liquidity, has turned around market sentiment on the Philippines. Stocks, the peso and reserves have all risen significantly, as have foreign direct investment and portfolio inflows, while interest costs and spreads for government borrowing have fallen along with inflation. Real GDP grew by 5.4 percent in 2006 and real GNP by 6.2 percent, marking the first time that three consecutive years of growth of 5 or more percent was recorded since the 1970s. Strong growth in business process outsourcing, electronics exports and remittance-driven consumption served as important props for higher growth. This paper includes the following headings: recent economic developments; how robust is present growth; invigorating growth, enhancing its impact; and maximizing the benefits of growth for the poor.Publication Vietnam Business : Vietnam Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005-11) World BankBusiness development has been one of the main forces behind rapid poverty reduction in Vietnam. Together with the redistribution of agricultural land, and the broad coverage of social services, it allowed a large fraction of the population to engage in more productive occupations and raise their living standards. But businesses are still struggling with important constraints. Insufficient availability of finance, difficulties in accessing land and continuous gaps in infrastructure services (in spite of enormous investment efforts) are among the most important obstacles identified by entrepreneurs. In a booming labor market, retaining qualified personnel and finding the skills required to move up the ladder are also perceived as barriers to business development. As a result of these constraints, the domestic private sector remains dominated by small enterprises. In between a myriad household businesses and a few thousand large state-owned enterprises (SOES) and foreign companies, there are not many small and medium enterprises, and only a handful of domestic private firms have made it to the top. Sustaining business development in Vietnam requires the completion of the structural reform agenda. Fully developing the land market, restructuring the financial sector, managing state assets in a more efficient and transparent manner, mobilizing resources for infrastructure development, are the key priorities in this respect. Further integration with the world economy, especially through the accession to the World Trade Organization, is bound to lock-in some of these changes, and level the playing field between domestic and foreign enterprises. But there i s also a complementary reform agenda, aimed at leveling the playing field between the domestic private sector and SOEs and mobilizing capital (both public and private) in an efficient way. Global integration and domestic reforms are needed to sustain rapid economic growth while avoiding the accumulation of large contingent liabilities for the government. For Vietnam to become a middle-income country will entail going beyond structural reforms and laying the foundations of a modern market economy, introducing competition and proper regulation in infrastructure services, modernizing tax administration, reforming the legal and judiciary systems, reducing corruption, improving governance at local levels, are all part of a second generation of reforms that need to be put on track for Vietnam to move up to the next phase.Publication Philippines : From Short-Term Growth to Sustained Development(Washington, DC, 2005-04) World BankAfter reviewing the more promising recent developments, this report examines the nature of growth and development in the Philippines from a longer-term perspective and the factors that may have inhibited performance. It concludes that political instability has undermined the beneficial impact of the reforms implemented, and that such instability itself has been rooted in governance failures. Moreover, weaknesses in public institutions and corruption have also directly undermined a range of development objectives. Reconstructing the social contract in the Philippines is a challenge. Key pillars of this strategy discussed in the report include: reducing fiscal vulnerabilities; improving the climate for private investment; and improving public sector performance and governance. The interdependence of these elements as part of a strategy to rebuild the social contract is discussed and the report elaborates on improving the delivery of basic services.Publication Indonesia Development Policy Report : Beyond Macroeconomic Stability(Washington, DC, 2003-12-04) World BankThe year 2004 will mark another crucial step in Indonesia's long-term transition. The country will go to the polls to elect new national and regional Parliaments, and for the first time in the history o f the Republic, to directly elect a President. This milestone in the country's democratization is accompanied by one in economic policy: for the first time since the onset o f the crisis, the Government will not have a program supported by the IMF. The Government's decision to graduate from its IMF program is warranted by the strong improvements in the country's macroeconomic conditions, and has been broadly welcomed by the markets and the international community. The Government's "Economic Policy Package Pre and Post IMF" or White Paper, issued as a presidential instruction on September 15th has helped build confidence in the Government's policies in the election year ahead. The policy package is intended to "bridge the credibility gap." The White Paper is a unique document: it is the first time that the Government commits itself transparently to a time-bound action plan to implement policies. The document shows continuity in macroeconomic policies and financial sector reforms, but also proposes a set of specific policy and institutional measures to address issues that have undermined the country's investment climate. While the timetable for adopting these measures is a short term one - fifteen months - many o f the proposed measures address fundamental longer term problems, and some will take several years to see through fully. The private sector, which has a high " stake in the measures included in the paper, has emerged as an independent monitor of progress. Since the White Paper is so central to Indonesia in the year ahead, much of this brief is devoted to discussing it. Beyond recent developments, the report discusses and analyzes critical policy actions from the White Paper. The report also points at the White Paper measures that may not necessarily be in line with the stated goals of the document. And finally, the report identifies policies that are needed beyond the White Paper to ensure Indonesia builds on the macroeconomic stability achieved to attain more rapid growth and poverty reduction.