PREM Notes

176 items available

Permanent URI for this collection

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/9424

This note series is intended to summarize good practices and key policy findings on poverty reduction and economic management (PREM) topics.

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 28

The Fiscal Management of Natural Resource Revenues in a Developing Country Setting (or How to Design a Fiscal Rule If You Are Not Norway)

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-04) Eckardt, Sebastian ; Sarsenov, Ilyas ; Thomas, Mark Roland

The exhaustibility and volatility of natural resource revenues pose well-known economic challenges, of which those facing oil producers are the most prominent. If oil revenues represent an important share of export earnings and of government revenues, then they can be part of overheating during booms and costly adjustments during downturns, making fiscal policy exacerbate volatility. At the same time, considerations of intergenerational equity suggest that fiscal policy should also preserve part of current oil revenues for future generations. To address both of these challenges, resource-rich countries commonly establish commodity funds, into which part of their resource-linked revenues are deposited and invested in income-generating assets (usually offshore financial assets). A key question in designing such funds is what share of current revenues should be spent and what share saved. Based on recent advisory services offered to the Ministry of Economy and Trade in Kazakhstan, this note summarizes one possible approach, aiming to provide rule-based anchors for sustainable fiscal policy in an oil-producing country. This approach applies traditional permanent-income and debt sustainability frameworks, but adapts the resulting recommendations to the institutional context of the country. Rule-based fiscal frameworks offer strong benefits to countries that are generating significant government revenue from extractive industries. As commitment devices, these frameworks can reinforce fiscally responsible economic management, contain volatility, and preserve fiscal savings for future generations.
New Open Economy Industrial Policy : Making Choices without Picking Winners

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-09) Kuznetsov, Yevgeny ; Sabel, Charles

This note starts from the premise that policy makers invariably make mistakes, both intentional and unintentional. That requires shifting the focus from one-time choice of winners (sectors, industries, firms, and other organizations) to the process of error detection and error correction of the choices (with corresponding attention to governance). This note shifts the debate on government activism in support of globally competitive industries from a choice of picking/dropping winners to a process of step-by-step transformation of private and public sectors. In such a process, new industrial policy creates its own context for efficient design and implementation in two ways. First, by shifting the focus of analysis and institutional design from private sector to a new public sector capable of providing customized and flexible public goods and enabling private agents to compete globally. The key concept here is heterogeneity (discretionary differences) of institutions: it is almost always possible to find some that are working. The issue is using the ones that work to improve those that don't. This hypothesis assumes that there are nearly always opportunities for development in a given economy, and that some actors, private and public, begin to take advantage of them.
M&E Systems and the Budget

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-10) Krause, Philipp

Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) are means to multiple ends. Measuring government activities, constructing and tracking performance indicators across sectors and over time, evaluating programs, these activities can be carried out and tied together with different objectives in mind. It will certainly be possible to use M&E purely as a way to improve transparency and accountability, by making more information on the workings and results of government programs available to the public. One can also focus M&E on managerial purposes, to reward performance inside ministries and agencies. But surely a crucial element of running an effective public sector will be missing if M&E were not used to inform the spending of public money. This briefing note will introduce the main issues surrounding M&E as a tool for budgeting, a system usually referred to as performance budgeting, to help policy makers make strategic decisions about their M&E systems by outlining different design choices and their respective advantages and pitfalls.
Defining the Type of M&E System : Clients, Intended Uses, and Actual Utilization

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-09) Briceño, Bertha

This is the second note in a monthly series on government monitoring and evaluation (M&E) systems led by the PREM Poverty Reduction and Equity Group under the guidance of Jaime Saavedra, Gladys Lopez-Acevedo, and Keith Mackay, with contributions from several World Bank colleagues. The main purpose of this series is to synthesize existing knowledge about M&E systems and to document new knowledge on M&E systems that may not yet be well understood. The series targets World Bank, donor staff who is working to support client governments in strengthening their M&E systems, as well as government officials interested in learning about the uses and benefits of M&E and in adopting a more systematic approach toward M&E in their governments.
Implementing Public Expenditure Tracking Surveys for Results : Lessons from a Decade of Global Experience

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-11) Gurkan, Asli ; Kaiser, Kai ; Voorbraak, Doris

Public Expenditure Tracking Surveys (PETS) can serve as a powerful tool to inform prevailing public financial management (PFM) practices and the extent to which government budgets link to execution and desired service delivery objectives and beneficiaries. Since the first PETS in Uganda in 1996, tracking exercises have now been conducted in over two dozen other countries, often as part of core analytical and advisory work related to PFM. This note synthesizes the findings and lessons from a number of recent PETS stocktaking exercises and indicates their potential benefits for enriching PFM and sectoral policy dialogues in a variety of country settings. Key findings include: (i) PETS have proven to be useful as part of a broader policy strategy aimed at improving service delivery results; (ii) PETS has become a brand name for very different instruments, but at its core there is a survey methodology that requires skilled technical expertise and a solid knowledge of budget execution processes; (iii) policy impact in a variety of PETS experiences could be further strengthened by stronger country ownership and effective follow-up; and (iv) the Bank could enhance PETS results through strategic partnering, and greater emphasis on dissemination and communication strategies aimed at involving actors who can foster actions on the ground.
Fiscal Policy for Growth

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-04) Ley, Eduardo

While the term 'fiscal space' is new, the issue is quite old. Fiscal space refers to availability of budgetary resources for a specific purpose, typically growth-enhancing investment uses, without jeopardizing the sustainability of the government's financial position, or the stability of the economy. The recent interest in fiscal space originated as a reaction to International Monetary Fund (IMF), supported fiscal-adjustment programs that by focusing too narrowly on fiscal-deficit targets often ignored the quality of the underlying adjustment. Affected countries meanwhile advocated for fiscal space for investments in physical and human infrastructure crucial for economic growth. The IMF independent evaluation office, in their study on fiscal Adjustment in IMF supported programs acknowledged this problem, observing that 'much of the fiscal adjustment achieved is through measures that do not assure long-term sustainability and flexibility of fiscal systems to future shocks'. In effect, the improvement of the fiscal balance in the context of IMF-supported programs too often relied heavily in cuts in public investment that improve today's government cash flow at the expense of future economic growth.
Linking Fiscal Policy and Growth in PER Reports : An Operational Framework for Low-Income Countries

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-03) Moreira, Emmanuel Pinto

This note describes a framework for linking fiscal policy and growth issues in low-income countries. The framework has been developed in the context of a recently, completed Public Expenditure Management and Financial Accountability Review (PEMFAR) report in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region. The note describes first the framework and then illustrates its application to fiscal reform and growth prospects in the context of Haiti. The note concludes by laying out an agenda for developing this framework further, ideally to facilitate use of this framework in preparing more Public Expenditure Reviews (PERs) and elaborating medium-term budget frameworks.
On the Marriage Between Public Spending and Growth : What Else Do We Know?

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-03) Moreno-Dodson, Blanca

While there are strong theoretical arguments for ways in which public spending influences growth, robust empirical links have been difficult to establish. More recently, many of the methodological problems that plagued the earlier literature have been overcome and interesting policy lessons drawn. The number of studies of developing countries using these new approaches is still limited, due to data scarcity and other comparability issues, but overall findings from the new literature are relevant for developing country policy makers and also open new venues for future research. The objective of this note is to present these new empirical results together with the methodological improvements that support them, and to outline some of the issues that need deeper analysis and empirical study, particularly in developing countries.
A Stocktaking of PRSPs in Fragile States

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-11) Dudwick, Nora ; Nelsson, Adam

In 1999, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) introduced poverty reduction strategy papers (PRSPs) as a condition for highly indebted countries to receive debt relief under the HIPC initiative. Since then, PRSPs have become a condition for aid to International Development Association (IDA) countries, for which they are considered instrumental in refocusing attention on poverty, democratizing policy making, and improving donor coordination. While PRSPs may play that role in many IDA countries, their usefulness in fragile states, including those just emerging from conflict, has been questioned. Increased donor attention to the specific problems of such states was the impetus for a Poverty Reduction Group (PRMPR) stocktaking of PRSPs in fragile environments.
Pro-Poor Public Spending Reform : Uganda's Virtual Poverty Fund

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2006-03) Williamson, Tim ; Canagarajah, Sudharshan

The Poverty Action Fund (PAF) was introduced in Uganda in 1998 to reorient government expenditures towards implementing its Poverty Education Action Plan (PEAP) as well as to account for Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) resource use. This paper notes the successes of the PAR, the negative aspects, and the key lessons learned. Successes include: reorienting budget allocations towards pro-poor service delivery and demonstrating the additionality of debt relief; mobilizing donor resources and harmonizing conditions; and improved budget predictability, transparency, and accountability. The negative aspects include: unbalanced budget allocations, biased budget implementation, partial monitoring and evaluation, and no exit strategy. The key lessons were: To be effective, a Virtual Poverty Fund (VPF) should be simple and limited to the identification of Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) priority expenditures in the budget classification system; a VPF should be introduced in a way that supports rather than replaces the implementation of such comprehensive improvements in budget preparation and implementation; and a VPF does not bypass the need to have a PRSP and an effective budget process that identify priority pro-poor expenditures to be included in the VPF as part of a broader policy framework for growth and poverty reduction.