PREM Notes

176 items available

Permanent URI for this collection

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/9424

This note series is intended to summarize good practices and key policy findings on poverty reduction and economic management (PREM) topics.

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 45

Performance, Monitoring, and Evaluation in China

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-09) Wong, Christine

Amidst all the hoopla about China's rise, it is useful to remember that China is a developing country whose transition to a market economy is not yet complete, with institution building still underway. The uneven pace of progress is reflected in the state of its public sector, but in some respects, China s public sector looks formidable. Most often mentioned is the government s treasure chest of US$3 trillion in foreign reserves. Even more enviable, government revenues have grown at annual rates of over 20 percent for a decade (China statistics 2011), fuelling a steep fiscal expansion at a time when so many countries are being forced to undergo painful consolidations. The government s reputation was further burnished in the post-Lehman global financial crisis, when, after a brief, though sharp, downturn in 2008, China became the first major economy to return to robust growth, propelled by a stimulus program that was, in relative terms, by far the biggest in the world. The bold stimulus and quick economic recovery seemed to show off an effective public sector able to implement national policies swiftly.
The Fiscal Management of Natural Resource Revenues in a Developing Country Setting (or How to Design a Fiscal Rule If You Are Not Norway)

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-04) Eckardt, Sebastian ; Sarsenov, Ilyas ; Thomas, Mark Roland

The exhaustibility and volatility of natural resource revenues pose well-known economic challenges, of which those facing oil producers are the most prominent. If oil revenues represent an important share of export earnings and of government revenues, then they can be part of overheating during booms and costly adjustments during downturns, making fiscal policy exacerbate volatility. At the same time, considerations of intergenerational equity suggest that fiscal policy should also preserve part of current oil revenues for future generations. To address both of these challenges, resource-rich countries commonly establish commodity funds, into which part of their resource-linked revenues are deposited and invested in income-generating assets (usually offshore financial assets). A key question in designing such funds is what share of current revenues should be spent and what share saved. Based on recent advisory services offered to the Ministry of Economy and Trade in Kazakhstan, this note summarizes one possible approach, aiming to provide rule-based anchors for sustainable fiscal policy in an oil-producing country. This approach applies traditional permanent-income and debt sustainability frameworks, but adapts the resulting recommendations to the institutional context of the country. Rule-based fiscal frameworks offer strong benefits to countries that are generating significant government revenue from extractive industries. As commitment devices, these frameworks can reinforce fiscally responsible economic management, contain volatility, and preserve fiscal savings for future generations.
New Open Economy Industrial Policy : Making Choices without Picking Winners

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-09) Kuznetsov, Yevgeny ; Sabel, Charles

This note starts from the premise that policy makers invariably make mistakes, both intentional and unintentional. That requires shifting the focus from one-time choice of winners (sectors, industries, firms, and other organizations) to the process of error detection and error correction of the choices (with corresponding attention to governance). This note shifts the debate on government activism in support of globally competitive industries from a choice of picking/dropping winners to a process of step-by-step transformation of private and public sectors. In such a process, new industrial policy creates its own context for efficient design and implementation in two ways. First, by shifting the focus of analysis and institutional design from private sector to a new public sector capable of providing customized and flexible public goods and enabling private agents to compete globally. The key concept here is heterogeneity (discretionary differences) of institutions: it is almost always possible to find some that are working. The issue is using the ones that work to improve those that don't. This hypothesis assumes that there are nearly always opportunities for development in a given economy, and that some actors, private and public, begin to take advantage of them.
Measuring National Income and Growth in Resource-Rich, Income-Poor Countries

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-08) Hamilton, Kirk ; Ley, Eduardo

In the decade leading to the recent commodity boom, which peaked in 2007-08, several resource-rich, low-income countries displayed high rates of gross domestic product (GDP) growth while social indicators did not improve significantly. It is well known that, in itself, the widely tracked GDP may not be the most relevant summary of aggregate economic performance in all places at all times. This note suggests that for countries with significant exhaustible natural resources and important foreign-investor presence, adjusted net national income (aNNI), can usefully complement GDP to assess economic progress.
The Increasing Importance of Developing Countries in Trade in Services

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-06) Sáez, Sebastián

Services play a broad and strategic role in the economy. The new focus in services arises because they have become increasingly tradable, allowing for the emergence of new and improved export activities. Trade in services, particularly business services, has become a dynamic component of trade and an alternative for export diversification for many developing countries. Besides traditional activities (such as tourism), health, information technology, and communication services are among the most successful service exports. Developing countries seem to follow different policy approaches to trade in services, and diverse trade patterns appear to emerge. What determines the participation of a developing country in trade in services? And what is the role of international negotiations?
Natural Resources and Development Strategy after the Crisis

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-01) Brahmbhatt, Milan ; Canuto, Otaviano

Recent events have rekindled interest in the role of primary commodities in development. Was the boom in commodity prices from around 2003 through 2008 just a cyclical event, or does it suggests that prices have entered on a period of secular strength, driven by factors such as demand in big, fast growing developing countries like China? It is notable that, while commodity prices fell sharply from their peak in 2008 with the onset of the global recession, they generally remained much higher than previous recession lows, often as high as in 2005-07, a period of robust world growth. Furthermore, prices have also rebounded smartly over the course of 2009. If a period of sustained commodity strength is imminent, what are the implications for development policies? Development economists have long debated the problems associated with the traditionally high specialization in production and export of primary commodities of most developing countries. Many argue that dependence on primary commodities has proved to be a poisoned chalice or curse for development, which, given this view, necessarily entails structural change and rapid industrialization. Others, however, suggest that sustained high commodity prices could reduce the relevance of an industrialization-focused development strategy for commodity-dependent, low-income countries (LICs). In this note authors briefly review four questions: how dependent are developing countries on primary commodity exports? What is the outlook for primary commodity prices? Is there a natural resource "curse" (or blessing)? What policies can help poor countries best manage commodity resources for long-run development?
The Pattern of Antidumping and Other Types of Contingent Protection

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-10) Bown, Chad P.

Many of the major economies in the multilateral, rules-based trading system find themselves in a situation in which their applied tariff rates are quite close to the tariff binding levels that form their legal commitments at the World Trade Organization (WTO). This implies that they cannot simply raise applied tariff rates to respond to domestic industry demands for additional trade barriers to protect them from imports. One of the fundamental and potentially WTO-legal ways in which national governments can respond to domestic industry calls for additional protection from imports is by resorting to trade 'remedy' policy instruments such as antidumping, safeguards, and countervailing duty (anti-subsidy) policies. This note, which describes newly collected data made available through the World Bank-sponsored global antidumping database, reports on the combined use of such policies, comprehensively collected across the major WTO member economies.
Breaking into New Markets, Raising Quality, and Improving Services : Neglected Avenues for Export Diversification

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-09) Brenton, Paul ; Walkenhorst, Peter

Expanding international trade is an important avenue for growth and development in low-income countries. In addition to increasing the quantity of existing export flows, many countries seek to diversify into production and export activities that provide a higher return to the labor and capital resources employed. Export diversity also reduces a country's vulnerability to pronounced price swings in international markets. This note reviews the findings of a series of papers on the diversification process contained in Newfarmer, Shaw, and Walkenhorst (2009). The analysis suggests that there has been too much focus on simply adding new products to export portfolios, which often underscores the use of industrial policies. While such actions are important, a more comprehensive view of diversification, and hence a more comprehensive trade policy, is needed that improves the quality of existing exports, breaks into new geographic markets, and increases services exports.
The Global Financial Crisis : Comparisons with the Great Depression and Scenarios for Recovery

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-08) Brahmbhatt, Milan ; Da Silva, Luiz Pereira

A recent paper has highlighted some close correspondences between economic performance during the present world recession and that during the early months of the great depression that began in late 1929. World industrial production from April 2008 to April 2009 fell as rapidly as during the first year of the great depression, while stock market prices and world trade volumes have fallen more rapidly than in the comparable period. These comparisons lead Eichengreen and O'Rourke to draw the alarming conclusion that 'it's a depression alright.' They note, however, that fiscal and monetary policies are likely to be much more supportive of economic activity in the next 1-2 years than they were during the first few years of the great depression. The first part of this note outlines some other important structural differences between the world economy today and in the 1930s that are likely to affect how the present recession plays out relative to the great depression. The second part of the note discusses possible recovery paths out of the current crisis.
Managing Trade Policy During the Economic Crisis

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-07) Saez, Sebastian

The global economic crisis has triggered rapid responses by governments worldwide to counteract its domestic effects, through fiscal stimulus packages, expansionary monetary policies, and financial bailouts. Ad hoc trade policy measures are increasingly being put in place. All countries share the responsibility of preserving a stable and predictable trade policy environment. To this end, trade policies must contribute to maintaining an open trading system consistent with World Trade Organization (WTO) principles. With the sharp decline in global merchandise trade volumes, expected to fall by 9 percent in 2009, countries have resorted to an array of measures to counter the detrimental effects of the crisis on their respective economies. Because this decline is a consequence of a deterioration of global demand, trade measures are not an effective response to this problem. On the contrary, policies that contribute to an open and stable trading system are the best policy option for the world community, especially in the current context.