PREM Notes
176 items available
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This note series is intended to summarize good practices and key policy findings on poverty reduction and economic management (PREM) topics.
Items in this collection
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Publication
Using M&E to Support Performance Based Planning and Budgeting in Indonesia
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-11)Since 2000, there has been growing interest in reforming Indonesia s budgeting systems to promote a more performance-orientated process. Indonesia is in the initial stages of this reform. A major challenge is determining the information needs of the central coordinating ministries. To date, these ministries have taken separate paths, developing their own monitoring and evaluation (M&E) systems, which are not linked to the planning and budgeting system, and creating new regulations and institutions to manage them. The result has been underused information and a high reporting burden at all levels. Furthermore, the current system places a greater emphasis on monitoring rather than evaluation. In 2011, representatives from the coordinating ministries participated in a series of high-level round table discussions to identify the steps needed to rationalize and coordinate M&E practices across institutions and to strengthen the links among data collection, evaluation, planning and budgeting. The round table process has confirmed that, while coordination is needed, establishing incentives for the demand and use of M&E information is critical to making the systems effective. This note identifies priority areas for future action building on this finding. -
Publication
The Fiscal Management of Natural Resource Revenues in a Developing Country Setting (or How to Design a Fiscal Rule If You Are Not Norway)
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-04)The exhaustibility and volatility of natural resource revenues pose well-known economic challenges, of which those facing oil producers are the most prominent. If oil revenues represent an important share of export earnings and of government revenues, then they can be part of overheating during booms and costly adjustments during downturns, making fiscal policy exacerbate volatility. At the same time, considerations of intergenerational equity suggest that fiscal policy should also preserve part of current oil revenues for future generations. To address both of these challenges, resource-rich countries commonly establish commodity funds, into which part of their resource-linked revenues are deposited and invested in income-generating assets (usually offshore financial assets). A key question in designing such funds is what share of current revenues should be spent and what share saved. Based on recent advisory services offered to the Ministry of Economy and Trade in Kazakhstan, this note summarizes one possible approach, aiming to provide rule-based anchors for sustainable fiscal policy in an oil-producing country. This approach applies traditional permanent-income and debt sustainability frameworks, but adapts the resulting recommendations to the institutional context of the country. Rule-based fiscal frameworks offer strong benefits to countries that are generating significant government revenue from extractive industries. As commitment devices, these frameworks can reinforce fiscally responsible economic management, contain volatility, and preserve fiscal savings for future generations. -
Publication
Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Methods for Program Monitoring and Evaluation: Why Are Mixed-Method Designs Best?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-05)Despite significant methodological advances, much program evaluation and monitoring data are of limited utility because of an over-reliance on quantitative methods alone. While surveys provide generalizable findings on what outcomes or impacts have or have not occurred, qualitative methods are better able to identify the underlying explanations for these outcomes and impacts, and therefore enable more effective responses. Qualitative methods also inform survey design, identify social and institutional drivers and impacts that are hard to quantify, uncover unanticipated issues, and trace impact pathways. When used together, quantitative and qualitative approaches provide more coherent, reliable, and useful conclusions than do each on their own. This note identifies key elements of good mixed-method design and provides examples of these principles applied in several countries. -
Publication
Key Steps in Designing and Implementing a Monitoring and Evaluation Process : For Individual Country Service Agencies
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-12)This paper identifies key steps in designing and implementing a monitoring and evaluation (M&E) system for ministries and individual government agencies that provide services. These suggestions are intended to apply whether the ministry or agency is in health, education, social welfare, environmental protection, transportation, economic development, public safety, or any other sector. The system might have been ordered or requested by the president or prime minister's office, by a minister, or by any agency head who wants to implement an M&E process. M&E development should focus on providing a process that will yield regular outcome data (in addition to data on the organization's outputs) that can be used by the designing agency and upper-level officials for accountability and, particularly, for managing these organizations, thereby helping officials improve their accountability and services to their citizens. -
Publication
Reconstructing Baseline Data for Impact Evaluation and Results Measurement
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-11)Many international development agencies and some national governments base future budget planning and policy decisions on a systematic assessment of the projects and programs in which they have already invested. Results are assessed through Mid-Term Reviews (MTRs), Implementation Completion Reports (ICRs), or through more rigorous impact evaluations (IE), all of which require the collection of baseline data before the project or program begins. The baseline is compared with the MTR, ICR, or the posttest IE measurement to estimate changes in the indicators used to measure performance, outcomes, or impacts. However, it is often the case that a baseline study is not conducted, seriously limiting the possibility of producing a rigorous assessment of project outcomes and impacts. This note discusses the reasons why baseline studies are often not conducted, even when they are included in the project design and funds have been approved, and describe strategies that can be used to 'reconstruct' baseline data at a later stage in the project or program cycle. -
Publication
M&E Systems and the Budget
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-10)Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) are means to multiple ends. Measuring government activities, constructing and tracking performance indicators across sectors and over time, evaluating programs, these activities can be carried out and tied together with different objectives in mind. It will certainly be possible to use M&E purely as a way to improve transparency and accountability, by making more information on the workings and results of government programs available to the public. One can also focus M&E on managerial purposes, to reward performance inside ministries and agencies. But surely a crucial element of running an effective public sector will be missing if M&E were not used to inform the spending of public money. This briefing note will introduce the main issues surrounding M&E as a tool for budgeting, a system usually referred to as performance budgeting, to help policy makers make strategic decisions about their M&E systems by outlining different design choices and their respective advantages and pitfalls. -
Publication
The Increasing Importance of Developing Countries in Trade in Services
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-06)Services play a broad and strategic role in the economy. The new focus in services arises because they have become increasingly tradable, allowing for the emergence of new and improved export activities. Trade in services, particularly business services, has become a dynamic component of trade and an alternative for export diversification for many developing countries. Besides traditional activities (such as tourism), health, information technology, and communication services are among the most successful service exports. Developing countries seem to follow different policy approaches to trade in services, and diverse trade patterns appear to emerge. What determines the participation of a developing country in trade in services? And what is the role of international negotiations? -
Publication
Salient Issues in Income and Asset Disclosure Systems : Lessons Learned from the Field in Preventing Conflict of Interest and Combating Illicit Enrichment
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-06)Asset disclosure (AD) systems also referred to as financial disclosure or asset declarations can play two important roles within broader anticorruption efforts prevention and enforcement. On the prevention side, AD requirements can help bring to light conflict of interest risks faced by public officials who file ADs, thereby facilitating the avoidance of conflict of interest situations. On the enforcement side, AD requirements can provide one more source of information that may be used in the investigation and prosecution of suspected illicit enrichment cases, thereby aiding asset recovery efforts. Effective collaboration, both domestically and internationally, between policy makers and practitioners is essential for such benefits to materialize. In an effort to identify how best to design and implement an AD system, the report recognizes that each country ultimately must design a system that is tailored to the environment in which it will function. As such, the study analyzes some of the tradeoffs faced by policy makers and practitioners alike in designing and implementing an optimal AD system in a particular context. The report complements the Public Sector Governance Group's development of AGI, which include a set of indicators for both the legal framework and implementation of AD systems. These indicators are available to World Bank staff for monitoring and evaluating AD policies and procedures and for engaging in dialogue with client countries; they also are available to other interested parties outside the Bank. -
Publication
What is the Role of Carbon Taxes in Climate Change Mitigation? (revised)
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-04)This note argues that a carbon tax system is more practical to implement, monitor, and enforce than tradable permit-based approaches to global climate-change action. It suggests that a sensible design will be an upstream carbon tax on the fossil fuel supply chain, which can also include other major non-carbon dioxide (CO2) greenhouse gases (GHGs). While risks such as fiscal cushioning exist, a tax-based system will be more transparent and offer the appropriate incentives for participation and compliance. -
Publication
Natural Resources and Development Strategy after the Crisis
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-01)Recent events have rekindled interest in the role of primary commodities in development. Was the boom in commodity prices from around 2003 through 2008 just a cyclical event, or does it suggests that prices have entered on a period of secular strength, driven by factors such as demand in big, fast growing developing countries like China? It is notable that, while commodity prices fell sharply from their peak in 2008 with the onset of the global recession, they generally remained much higher than previous recession lows, often as high as in 2005-07, a period of robust world growth. Furthermore, prices have also rebounded smartly over the course of 2009. If a period of sustained commodity strength is imminent, what are the implications for development policies? Development economists have long debated the problems associated with the traditionally high specialization in production and export of primary commodities of most developing countries. Many argue that dependence on primary commodities has proved to be a poisoned chalice or curse for development, which, given this view, necessarily entails structural change and rapid industrialization. Others, however, suggest that sustained high commodity prices could reduce the relevance of an industrialization-focused development strategy for commodity-dependent, low-income countries (LICs). In this note authors briefly review four questions: how dependent are developing countries on primary commodity exports? What is the outlook for primary commodity prices? Is there a natural resource "curse" (or blessing)? What policies can help poor countries best manage commodity resources for long-run development?