PREM Notes

176 items available

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/9424

This note series is intended to summarize good practices and key policy findings on poverty reduction and economic management (PREM) topics.

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Performance, Monitoring, and Evaluation in China

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-09) Wong, Christine

Amidst all the hoopla about China's rise, it is useful to remember that China is a developing country whose transition to a market economy is not yet complete, with institution building still underway. The uneven pace of progress is reflected in the state of its public sector, but in some respects, China s public sector looks formidable. Most often mentioned is the government s treasure chest of US$3 trillion in foreign reserves. Even more enviable, government revenues have grown at annual rates of over 20 percent for a decade (China statistics 2011), fuelling a steep fiscal expansion at a time when so many countries are being forced to undergo painful consolidations. The government s reputation was further burnished in the post-Lehman global financial crisis, when, after a brief, though sharp, downturn in 2008, China became the first major economy to return to robust growth, propelled by a stimulus program that was, in relative terms, by far the biggest in the world. The bold stimulus and quick economic recovery seemed to show off an effective public sector able to implement national policies swiftly.
Performance-Informed Budgeting in the U.S. National Government : An Evolutionary Approach and a Work in Progress

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-07) Joyce, Philip G.

The United States, at the national level of government, has been trying to identify stronger links between performance and funding for at least 50 years. The most recent two presidents had fundamentally different approaches to performance-based reforms. The administration of George W. Bush embraced a top-down, comprehensive approach to performance, embodied by the President's Management Agenda and the Program Assessment Rating Tool (PART). The Obama administration has delegated more of the agenda to the agencies and has abandoned the PART in favor of a more in-depth, targeted approach to evaluation. Continuing challenges in the United States include creating incentives for focusing on the long term rather than the short term, making expanded use of performance information for budget decision making, and simultaneously focusing on performance improvement and reducing unsustainable budget deficits.
The Fiscal Management of Natural Resource Revenues in a Developing Country Setting (or How to Design a Fiscal Rule If You Are Not Norway)

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-04) Eckardt, Sebastian ; Sarsenov, Ilyas ; Thomas, Mark Roland

The exhaustibility and volatility of natural resource revenues pose well-known economic challenges, of which those facing oil producers are the most prominent. If oil revenues represent an important share of export earnings and of government revenues, then they can be part of overheating during booms and costly adjustments during downturns, making fiscal policy exacerbate volatility. At the same time, considerations of intergenerational equity suggest that fiscal policy should also preserve part of current oil revenues for future generations. To address both of these challenges, resource-rich countries commonly establish commodity funds, into which part of their resource-linked revenues are deposited and invested in income-generating assets (usually offshore financial assets). A key question in designing such funds is what share of current revenues should be spent and what share saved. Based on recent advisory services offered to the Ministry of Economy and Trade in Kazakhstan, this note summarizes one possible approach, aiming to provide rule-based anchors for sustainable fiscal policy in an oil-producing country. This approach applies traditional permanent-income and debt sustainability frameworks, but adapts the resulting recommendations to the institutional context of the country. Rule-based fiscal frameworks offer strong benefits to countries that are generating significant government revenue from extractive industries. As commitment devices, these frameworks can reinforce fiscally responsible economic management, contain volatility, and preserve fiscal savings for future generations.
New Open Economy Industrial Policy : Making Choices without Picking Winners

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-09) Kuznetsov, Yevgeny ; Sabel, Charles

This note starts from the premise that policy makers invariably make mistakes, both intentional and unintentional. That requires shifting the focus from one-time choice of winners (sectors, industries, firms, and other organizations) to the process of error detection and error correction of the choices (with corresponding attention to governance). This note shifts the debate on government activism in support of globally competitive industries from a choice of picking/dropping winners to a process of step-by-step transformation of private and public sectors. In such a process, new industrial policy creates its own context for efficient design and implementation in two ways. First, by shifting the focus of analysis and institutional design from private sector to a new public sector capable of providing customized and flexible public goods and enabling private agents to compete globally. The key concept here is heterogeneity (discretionary differences) of institutions: it is almost always possible to find some that are working. The issue is using the ones that work to improve those that don't. This hypothesis assumes that there are nearly always opportunities for development in a given economy, and that some actors, private and public, begin to take advantage of them.
M&E Systems and the Budget

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-10) Krause, Philipp

Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) are means to multiple ends. Measuring government activities, constructing and tracking performance indicators across sectors and over time, evaluating programs, these activities can be carried out and tied together with different objectives in mind. It will certainly be possible to use M&E purely as a way to improve transparency and accountability, by making more information on the workings and results of government programs available to the public. One can also focus M&E on managerial purposes, to reward performance inside ministries and agencies. But surely a crucial element of running an effective public sector will be missing if M&E were not used to inform the spending of public money. This briefing note will introduce the main issues surrounding M&E as a tool for budgeting, a system usually referred to as performance budgeting, to help policy makers make strategic decisions about their M&E systems by outlining different design choices and their respective advantages and pitfalls.
Defining the Type of M&E System : Clients, Intended Uses, and Actual Utilization

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-09) Briceño, Bertha

This is the second note in a monthly series on government monitoring and evaluation (M&E) systems led by the PREM Poverty Reduction and Equity Group under the guidance of Jaime Saavedra, Gladys Lopez-Acevedo, and Keith Mackay, with contributions from several World Bank colleagues. The main purpose of this series is to synthesize existing knowledge about M&E systems and to document new knowledge on M&E systems that may not yet be well understood. The series targets World Bank, donor staff who is working to support client governments in strengthening their M&E systems, as well as government officials interested in learning about the uses and benefits of M&E and in adopting a more systematic approach toward M&E in their governments.
Measuring National Income and Growth in Resource-Rich, Income-Poor Countries

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-08) Hamilton, Kirk ; Ley, Eduardo

In the decade leading to the recent commodity boom, which peaked in 2007-08, several resource-rich, low-income countries displayed high rates of gross domestic product (GDP) growth while social indicators did not improve significantly. It is well known that, in itself, the widely tracked GDP may not be the most relevant summary of aggregate economic performance in all places at all times. This note suggests that for countries with significant exhaustible natural resources and important foreign-investor presence, adjusted net national income (aNNI), can usefully complement GDP to assess economic progress.
Natural Resources and Development Strategy after the Crisis

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-01) Brahmbhatt, Milan ; Canuto, Otaviano

Recent events have rekindled interest in the role of primary commodities in development. Was the boom in commodity prices from around 2003 through 2008 just a cyclical event, or does it suggests that prices have entered on a period of secular strength, driven by factors such as demand in big, fast growing developing countries like China? It is notable that, while commodity prices fell sharply from their peak in 2008 with the onset of the global recession, they generally remained much higher than previous recession lows, often as high as in 2005-07, a period of robust world growth. Furthermore, prices have also rebounded smartly over the course of 2009. If a period of sustained commodity strength is imminent, what are the implications for development policies? Development economists have long debated the problems associated with the traditionally high specialization in production and export of primary commodities of most developing countries. Many argue that dependence on primary commodities has proved to be a poisoned chalice or curse for development, which, given this view, necessarily entails structural change and rapid industrialization. Others, however, suggest that sustained high commodity prices could reduce the relevance of an industrialization-focused development strategy for commodity-dependent, low-income countries (LICs). In this note authors briefly review four questions: how dependent are developing countries on primary commodity exports? What is the outlook for primary commodity prices? Is there a natural resource "curse" (or blessing)? What policies can help poor countries best manage commodity resources for long-run development?
Implementing Public Expenditure Tracking Surveys for Results : Lessons from a Decade of Global Experience

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-11) Gurkan, Asli ; Kaiser, Kai ; Voorbraak, Doris

Public Expenditure Tracking Surveys (PETS) can serve as a powerful tool to inform prevailing public financial management (PFM) practices and the extent to which government budgets link to execution and desired service delivery objectives and beneficiaries. Since the first PETS in Uganda in 1996, tracking exercises have now been conducted in over two dozen other countries, often as part of core analytical and advisory work related to PFM. This note synthesizes the findings and lessons from a number of recent PETS stocktaking exercises and indicates their potential benefits for enriching PFM and sectoral policy dialogues in a variety of country settings. Key findings include: (i) PETS have proven to be useful as part of a broader policy strategy aimed at improving service delivery results; (ii) PETS has become a brand name for very different instruments, but at its core there is a survey methodology that requires skilled technical expertise and a solid knowledge of budget execution processes; (iii) policy impact in a variety of PETS experiences could be further strengthened by stronger country ownership and effective follow-up; and (iv) the Bank could enhance PETS results through strategic partnering, and greater emphasis on dissemination and communication strategies aimed at involving actors who can foster actions on the ground.
The Global Financial Crisis : Comparisons with the Great Depression and Scenarios for Recovery

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-08) Brahmbhatt, Milan ; Da Silva, Luiz Pereira

A recent paper has highlighted some close correspondences between economic performance during the present world recession and that during the early months of the great depression that began in late 1929. World industrial production from April 2008 to April 2009 fell as rapidly as during the first year of the great depression, while stock market prices and world trade volumes have fallen more rapidly than in the comparable period. These comparisons lead Eichengreen and O'Rourke to draw the alarming conclusion that 'it's a depression alright.' They note, however, that fiscal and monetary policies are likely to be much more supportive of economic activity in the next 1-2 years than they were during the first few years of the great depression. The first part of this note outlines some other important structural differences between the world economy today and in the 1930s that are likely to affect how the present recession plays out relative to the great depression. The second part of the note discusses possible recovery paths out of the current crisis.