PREM Notes
176 items available
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This note series is intended to summarize good practices and key policy findings on poverty reduction and economic management (PREM) topics.
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Publication
Implementing Public Expenditure Tracking Surveys for Results : Lessons from a Decade of Global Experience
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-11)Public Expenditure Tracking Surveys (PETS) can serve as a powerful tool to inform prevailing public financial management (PFM) practices and the extent to which government budgets link to execution and desired service delivery objectives and beneficiaries. Since the first PETS in Uganda in 1996, tracking exercises have now been conducted in over two dozen other countries, often as part of core analytical and advisory work related to PFM. This note synthesizes the findings and lessons from a number of recent PETS stocktaking exercises and indicates their potential benefits for enriching PFM and sectoral policy dialogues in a variety of country settings. Key findings include: (i) PETS have proven to be useful as part of a broader policy strategy aimed at improving service delivery results; (ii) PETS has become a brand name for very different instruments, but at its core there is a survey methodology that requires skilled technical expertise and a solid knowledge of budget execution processes; (iii) policy impact in a variety of PETS experiences could be further strengthened by stronger country ownership and effective follow-up; and (iv) the Bank could enhance PETS results through strategic partnering, and greater emphasis on dissemination and communication strategies aimed at involving actors who can foster actions on the ground. -
Publication
The Global Financial Crisis : Comparisons with the Great Depression and Scenarios for Recovery
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-08)A recent paper has highlighted some close correspondences between economic performance during the present world recession and that during the early months of the great depression that began in late 1929. World industrial production from April 2008 to April 2009 fell as rapidly as during the first year of the great depression, while stock market prices and world trade volumes have fallen more rapidly than in the comparable period. These comparisons lead Eichengreen and O'Rourke to draw the alarming conclusion that 'it's a depression alright.' They note, however, that fiscal and monetary policies are likely to be much more supportive of economic activity in the next 1-2 years than they were during the first few years of the great depression. The first part of this note outlines some other important structural differences between the world economy today and in the 1930s that are likely to affect how the present recession plays out relative to the great depression. The second part of the note discusses possible recovery paths out of the current crisis. -
Publication
Taxing Business
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-06)Economists are sometimes accused of agreeing on almost nothing. An important policy question on which many economists appear to agree, however, is that there is not much to be said in favor of taxing business and especially not internationally mobile corporations. The reason for such unanimity is primarily the substantial economic costs associated with business taxes, although the uncertainty as to whom really 'pays' such taxes in terms of their final incidence may also contribute to the disdain in which they are generally held by economists. But the world largely ignores conventional economic wisdom: people everywhere seems delighted to load as much of their tax burden as possible on "business" and particularly on large impersonal corporations. -
Publication
The Personal Income Tax
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-06)A recent paper argues persuasively that the two basic pillars of taxation in most countries are the income tax and the VAT (Barreix and Roca 2007). The authors argue that the VAT is excellent as a revenue raiser and works best if it is applied in the simplest and most neutral fashion possible that is, on as broad a base as possible and preferably at a uniform rate. Given the relative unimportance of personal income taxes in most developing countries this argument is at first sight perhaps somewhat surprising. Personal income tax (PIT) revenues are often three to four times corporate tax revenues in developed countries, but in developing countries corporate tax revenues usually substantially exceed PIT revenues. As a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), PIT revenues in developed countries average about seven percent of GDP as compared to about two percent for developing countries. Moreover, as Bird and Zolt (2005) note, in many developing countries personal income taxes often amount to little more than taxes on labor income. At the same time, although little revenue is received from capital income, income taxes often impose high marginal effective rates on investment and hence discourage growth. -
Publication
Taxing Consumption
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-06)Domestic consumption in most countries is taxed through general sales taxes, excise taxes on specific commodities, and a variety of miscellaneous taxes on such services as hotels and transfers of property. This note considers only the first two of these categories, with particular attention to general sales taxes. Consumption taxes are obviously related both to customs duties and other taxes on imports and also to production taxes like those often imposed on agricultural output. In some countries elements of both import and production taxation remains. These aspects are not further explored in this note other than to note that the original form of general sales taxes often consisted of a sales tax imposed on imported and domestic manufactured goods. Most countries have now replaced such 'pre-retail' sales taxes by taxes that fall primarily on consumption rather than on production and, both more responsive to revenue needs and easier to collect effectively and efficiently. However, excise taxes on specific commodities are often still imposed at the production stage. -
Publication
Fiscal Policy for Growth
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-04)While the term 'fiscal space' is new, the issue is quite old. Fiscal space refers to availability of budgetary resources for a specific purpose, typically growth-enhancing investment uses, without jeopardizing the sustainability of the government's financial position, or the stability of the economy. The recent interest in fiscal space originated as a reaction to International Monetary Fund (IMF), supported fiscal-adjustment programs that by focusing too narrowly on fiscal-deficit targets often ignored the quality of the underlying adjustment. Affected countries meanwhile advocated for fiscal space for investments in physical and human infrastructure crucial for economic growth. The IMF independent evaluation office, in their study on fiscal Adjustment in IMF supported programs acknowledged this problem, observing that 'much of the fiscal adjustment achieved is through measures that do not assure long-term sustainability and flexibility of fiscal systems to future shocks'. In effect, the improvement of the fiscal balance in the context of IMF-supported programs too often relied heavily in cuts in public investment that improve today's government cash flow at the expense of future economic growth. -
Publication
A Note on Vulnerability : Findings from Moving Out of Poverty
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-04)Poverty studies typically focus on people who live below the poverty line. Few studies have examined how people are able to not only move out of but also stay out of poverty. The fifteen, country study, moving out of poverty: success from the bottom up, by Deepa Narayan, Lant Pritchett, and Soumya Kapoor, is one of the few large-scale comparative research attempts to analyze mobility out of poverty rather than poverty alone. The study focused largely on rural communities over a 10-year period between 1995 and 2005, when developing countries exhibited overall relatively strong growth. -
Publication
Linking Fiscal Policy and Growth in PER Reports : An Operational Framework for Low-Income Countries
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-03)This note describes a framework for linking fiscal policy and growth issues in low-income countries. The framework has been developed in the context of a recently, completed Public Expenditure Management and Financial Accountability Review (PEMFAR) report in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region. The note describes first the framework and then illustrates its application to fiscal reform and growth prospects in the context of Haiti. The note concludes by laying out an agenda for developing this framework further, ideally to facilitate use of this framework in preparing more Public Expenditure Reviews (PERs) and elaborating medium-term budget frameworks. -
Publication
On the Marriage Between Public Spending and Growth : What Else Do We Know?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-03)While there are strong theoretical arguments for ways in which public spending influences growth, robust empirical links have been difficult to establish. More recently, many of the methodological problems that plagued the earlier literature have been overcome and interesting policy lessons drawn. The number of studies of developing countries using these new approaches is still limited, due to data scarcity and other comparability issues, but overall findings from the new literature are relevant for developing country policy makers and also open new venues for future research. The objective of this note is to present these new empirical results together with the methodological improvements that support them, and to outline some of the issues that need deeper analysis and empirical study, particularly in developing countries. -
Publication
The Economic Participation of Adolescent Girls and Young Women : Why Does It Matter?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-12)This note summarizes available research on the impact of schooling and employment of adolescent girls and young women on earnings and poverty reduction, demographic outcomes, child development outcomes, and female empowerment. It identifies key implications of this research for the formulation of public policy.