Directions in Development

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This series was discontinued in 2019. This series of well-developed essays and studies highlights current development issues, based on research output related to Bank operations. In recent years these have been subdivided into subseries covering the operational sectors: Agriculture and Rural Development; Energy and Mining; Environment and Sustainable Development; Finance; Human Development; Information and Communication Technologies; Infrastructure; Poverty; Private Sector Development; Public Sector Governance; Science, Technology, and Innovation; and Trade. The Countries and Regions subseries encompasses those books in the series that cover several sectors. The titles in this series are peer-reviewed and produced by units of The World Bank.

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 66
  • Publication
    Getting to Work: Unlocking Women's Potential in Sri Lanka's Labor Force
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020-03-02) Sethi, Jayati; Solotaroff, Jennifer L.; Joseph, George; Kuriakose, Anne
    Sri Lanka has shown remarkable persistence in low female labor force participation rates—at 36 percent in the past two years, compared with 75 percent for same-aged men—despite overall economic growth and poverty reduction over the past decade. The trend stands in contrast to the country’s achievements in human capital development that favor women, such as high levels of female education and low total fertility rates, as well as its status as a lower-middle-income country. This study intends to better understand the puzzle of women’s poor labor market outcomes in Sri Lanka. Using nationally representative secondary survey data—as well as primary qualitative and quantitative research—it tests three hypotheses that would explain gender gaps in labor market outcomes: (1) household roles and responsibilities, which fall disproportionately on women, and the associated sociophysical constraints on women’s mobility; (2) a human capital mismatch, whereby women are not acquiring the proper skills demanded by job markets; and (3) gender discrimination in job search, hiring, and promotion processes. Further, the analysis provides a comparison of women’s experience of the labor market between the years leading up to the end of Sri Lanka’s civil war (2006–09) and the years following the civil war (2010–15). The study recommends priority areas for addressing the multiple supply- and demand-side factors to improve women’s labor force participation rates and reduce other gender gaps in labor market outcomes. It also offers specific recommendations for improving women’s participation in the five private sector industries covered by the primary research: commercial agriculture, garments, tourism, information and communications technology, and tea estate work. The findings are intended to influence policy makers, educators, and employment program practitioners with a stake in helping Sri Lanka achieve its vision of inclusive and sustainable job creation and economic growth. The study also aims to contribute to the work of research institutions and civil society in identifying the most effective means of engaging more women—and their untapped potential for labor, innovation, and productivity—in Sri Lanka’s future.
  • Publication
    Paths between Peace and Public Service: A Comparative Analysis of Public Service Reform Trajectories in Postconflict Countries
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019) Blum, Jürgen René; Ferreiro-Rodriguez, Marcos; Srivastava, Vivek
    Building a capable public service is fundamental to postconflict state building. Yet in postconflict settings, short-term pressures often conflict with this longer-term objective. To ensure peace and stabilize fragile coalitions, the imperative for political elites to hand out public jobs and better pay to constituents dominates merit. Donor-financed projects that rely on technical assistants and parallel structures, rather than on government systems, are often the primary vehicle for meeting pressing service delivery needs. What, then, is a workable approach to rebuilding public services postconflict? Paths between Peace and Public Service seeks to answer this question by comparing public service reform trajectories in five countries—Afghanistan, Liberia, Sierra Leone, South Sudan, and Timor-Leste—in the aftermath of conflict. The study seeks to explain these countries’ different trajectories through process tracing and structured, focused methods of comparative analysis. To reconstruct reform trajectories, the report draws on more than 200 interviews conducted with government officials and other stakeholders, as well as administrative data. The study analyzes how reform trajectories are influenced by elite bargains and highlights their path dependency, shaped by preconflict legacies and the specifics of the conflict period. As the first systematic study on postconflict public service reforms, it identifies lessons for the future engagement of development partners in building public services.
  • Publication
    Options for Aged Care in China: Building An Efficient and Sustainable Aged Care System
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-11-20) Glinskaya, Elena; Feng, Zhanlian; Glinskaya, Elena; Feng, Zhanlian
    China is aging at an unprecedented rate. Improvements in life expectancy and the consequences of the decades-old family planning policy have led to a rapid increase in the elderly population. According to the United Nations World Population Prospects, the proportion of older people age 65 and over will increase by about one-fourth by 2030, and the elderly will account for about one quarter of the total population by 2050. Population aging will not only pose challenges for elder care but also have an impact on the economy and all aspects of society (World Bank, 2016a). The government is aware of the need to develop an efficient and sustainable approach to aged care. To this end, the General Office of the State Council issued the 12th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Aged Care Services in China and the Development Plan for a System of Social Services for the Aged (2011-2015). It is now in the process of formulating the 13th Five-Year National Plan on Aging, which will further elaborate and finalize the reform roadmap for 2016 to 2020. The Plan is expected to be finalized and launched by June 2016. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) helped draft these plans and is now leading the development of policy measures for the provision of social services for the elderly. This volume has been prepared to support the translation of the broad ideas on aged care provision expressed in the 12th and 13th Five-Year Plans and other government plans into reality and to help the government tackle the challenges described above. It strives to identify a policy framework that fits the Chinese context and can be put in place gradually. Specifically, it aims to provide an up-to-date understanding of the evolving aged care landscape in China; review international experiences in long-term care provision, financing, and quality assurance and assess their relevance to China’s current situation; discuss implications of current developments and trends for the future of aged care in China; and propose policy options based on available evidence and best practices.
  • Publication
    Reforming Non-Tariff Measures: From Evidence to Policy Advice
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-06-13) Cadot, Olivier; Ferrantino, Michael J.; Gourdon, Julien; Reyes, José-Daniel
    High levels of trade costs persist in the world trading system, despite recent progress in tariff reduction, trade facilitation, and logistics. At least some of these costs can be attributed to non-tariff measures (NTMs), policies imposed by governments other than ordinary customs duties which have an impact on the price at which exports and imports are traded, the quantities traded, or both. Such costs are particularly worrisome if they have a discriminatory or protectionist effect, or violate countries’ international commitments. However, even NTMs designed to carry out domestic regulatory objectives – for example, protection of human, animal or plant health, consumer or workplace safety, or the environment – can have substantial effects on international trade, which should be considered when such policies are developed. This book discusses some of the analytical methods that can be used to accompany the process of policy development for NTMs. It discusses the broad economic rationale for improving the design of NTMs;, illustrates the main forms of quantification of NTMs and their effects, including inventory approaches, price-based approaches, and quantity-based approaches; proposes a new analytical and measurable concept of “regulatory distance” to help guide deep integration efforts at the regional level; provides a discussion of the effects of NTMs on household expenditures, poverty, and firm competitiveness; and shows how empirical analysis of NTMs can be used to inform policy advice. As such, it should provide a valuable addition to the arsenal of tools available for applied analysis of international trade policy.
  • Publication
    The Jobs of Tomorrow: Technology, Productivity, and Prosperity in Latin America and the Caribbean
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-04-10) Dutz, Mark A.; Almeida, Rita K.
    While adoption of new technologies is understood to enhance long-term growth and average per-capita incomes, its impact on lower-skilled workers is more complex and merits clarification. Concerns abound that advanced technologies developed in high-income countries would inexorably lead to job losses of lower-skilled, less well-off workers and exacerbate inequality. Conversely, there are countervailing concerns that policies intended to protect jobs from technology advancement would themselves stultify progress and depress productivity. This book squarely addresses both sets of concerns with new research showing that adoption of digital technologies offers a pathway to more inclusive growth by increasing adopting firms’ outputs, with the jobs-enhancing impact of technology adoption assisted by growth-enhancing policies that foster sizable output expansion. The research reported here demonstrates with economic theory and data from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico that lower-skilled workers can benefit from adoption of productivity-enhancing technologies biased towards skilled workers, and often do. The inclusive jobs outcomes arise when the effects of increased productivity and expanding output overcome the substitution of workers for technology. While the substitution effect replaces some lower-skilled workers with new technology and more highly-skilled labor, the output effect can lead to an increase in the total number of jobs for less-skilled workers. Critically, output can increase sufficiently to increase jobs across all tasks and skill types within adopting firms, including jobs for lower-skilled workers, as long as lower-skilled task content remains complementary to new technologies and related occupations are not completely automated and replaced by machines. It is this channel for inclusive growth that underlies the power of pro-competitive enabling policies and institutions—such as regulations encouraging firms to compete and policies supporting the development of skills that technology augments rather than replaces—to ensure that the positive impact of technology adoption on productivity and lower-skilled workers is realized.
  • Publication
    Open and Nimble: Finding Stable Growth in Small Economies
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018) Lederman, Daniel
    Does economic size matter for economic development outcomes? If so are current policies adequately addressing the role of size in the development process? Using working age population as a proxy for country size, Open and Nimble, systematically analyzes what makes small economies unique. Small economies are not necessarily prone to underdevelopment and in fact can achieve very high income levels. Small economies, however, do tend to be highly open to both international trade and foreign direct investment, have highly specialized export structures, and have large government expenditures relative to their Gross Domestic Product. The export structures of small economies are concentrated in a few products or services and in a small number of export destinations. In turn, this export concentration is associated with terms of trade volatility, which combined with high exposure to international trade, implies that small economies tend to face more volatility on average as external volatility permeates national economic life. Yet small economies tend to compensate for their export concentration by being nimble in the sense of being able to change their production and export structure relatively quickly over time. Moreover, limited territory plays a role in shaping how economies are affected by natural disasters, even when the probability of facing such disasters is not necessarily higher among small than among large economies. The combination of large governments with macroeconomic volatility seems to be associated with low national savings rates in small economies. This combination could be a challenge for long-term growth if productivity growth and foreign investment do not compensate for low domestic savings. The book finishes with some thoughts on how policy makers can respond to these issues through coordinated investments and regional integration efforts, as well as fiscal policy reforms aimed at both increasing public savings and conducting countercyclical fiscal policies.
  • Publication
    From Falling Behind to Catching Up: A Country Economic Memorandum for Malawi
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018) Record, Richard; Kumar, Praveen; Kandoole, Priscilla
    This book aims to improve readers’ understanding of the puzzle of Malawi’s development performance and identify ways for the country to achieve robust growth and stay on a stable growth path that helps the poor. The book places a strong emphasis on assessing Malawi’s growth experience since independence from a comparative international perspective. This book first discusses Malawi’s macroeconomic situation and challenges in fiscal management, reviewing and drawing lessons from the instability, slippages, and shocks experienced since independence. Second, it explores the current state of agricultural markets, given the critical role of this sector in poverty reduction. Third, looking at the factors that may constrain higher growth in the future, challenges in private sector development and job creation are discussed. Building on the analysis of challenges, the book concludes with a summary of policy recommendations to help Malawi to begin catching up with its peers.
  • Publication
    Morocco 2040: Emerging by Investing in Intangible Capital
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018) Chauffour, Jean-Pierre
    Morocco 2040: Emerging by Investing in Intangible Capital documents the major economic and social strides made by Morocco over the past 15 years and analyzes the economic conditions for accelerating the pace of economic catch-up by 2040. A virtuous yet realistic scenario suggests that with higher productivity gains Morocco could double its current pace of convergence with Southern European countries. In one generation, Morocco’s standard of living could reach about 45 percent of that of Spain, its immediate Northern neighbor, compared to the current rate of 22 percent. To lay out the possible pathways for Morocco to become the first North African country to attain upper middle income status, the Book then investigates the policies that could bring about such a virtuous scenario of accelerated economic convergence. It shows that sustaining higher productivity gains for 25 years would require greater efforts at building Morocco’s institutional, human and social capital—what is also known as intangible capital. Accumulating such intangible capital necessarily take a number of different forms and the Book proposes a four-pronged approach. First, by strengthening Morocco’s market institutions for a more efficient allocation of capital and labor and international integration. Second, by strengthening Morocco’s public institutions to strengthen the rule of law and justice, modernize the public administration, and improve the quality of public service delivery. Third, by strengthening Morocco’s human capital, especially education, health and the development of early childhood. And fourth, by strengthening Morocco’s social capital through greater gender parity and increased interpersonal trust and civism in society. By placing more of a priority on its intangible capital, Morocco would be advancing a social contract based on the promotion of a more open society. It would be taking a route that is partly new, but which is also the logical outcome of many economic and social diagnoses and pressing calls for change.
  • Publication
    Fiscal and Welfare Impacts of Electricity Subsidies in Central America
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-10-11) Hernández Oré, Marco Antonio; Sousa, Liliana D.; Hernández Oré, Marco Antonio; Sánchez, Luis Álvaro; Sousa, Liliana D.; Tornarolli, Leopoldo; Korczyc, Ewa; Olivera, Laura; Rizo Patrón, Luis
    Central American countries spend approximately one percent of their aggregate gross domestic product subsidizing residential electricity consumption. This amount is comparable with what these countries spend on education and social assistance. The pressure that electricity subsidies exert on government budgets is particularly high when international energy prices rise. Electricity subsidies also provide perverse incentives for the overconsumption of electricity as households do not pay the true cost of their consumption, which in turn reduces incentives to increase energy efficiency. This book answers key questions regarding residential electricity subsidies in Central America. In particular: How do the subsidy mechanisms function in each country? What are their fiscal costs? Are these subsidies good value for the money? How efficient are subsidies in reaching households in need, and what drives this efficiency? What are the reform options? The main message of this book is that there is considerable scope for improving the efficiency of electricity subsidies in Central America by better targeting them to low-income households. The book shows that electricity subsidies help reduce the burden of electricity costs on the lowest-income groups. However, the existing electricity subsidy schemes are very inefficient at targeting resources to low-income households, with the majority of government spending going to higher-income households. Indeed, most countries in the region have the opportunity to significantly reduce the fiscal costs of electricity subsidies without imposing significant costs on households, particularly poor households. Given the limited fiscal space in the region and the major needs of the countries in terms of social services and physical infrastructure, this study seeks to provide Central American policymakers with the analytical foundations necessary to assess the costs and benefits of their electricity subsidy mechanisms, and design effective reform strategies that reflect their unique circumstances and policy priorities.
  • Publication
    Developing Socioemotional Skills for the Philippines' Labor Market
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-09-22) Acosta, Pablo; Igarashi, Takiko; Olfindo, Rosechin; Rutkowski, Jan
    While the Philippines has achieved remarkable progress in raising the education level of its labor force, the standard proxy for educational attainment—years of formal schooling—is increasingly inadequate as a measure of workforce skills. About one-third of employers report being unable to fill vacancies due to lack of applicants with the requisite skills. Most of these “missing skills” are socioemotional skills,” also known as “non-cognitive skills”, “soft skills” or “behavioral skills.” Emerging international evidence suggests that socioemotional skills are increasingly crucial to the types of jobs being created by the global economy. The following study presents new evidence from employer and household surveys on the role of socioemotional skills in the Philippine labor market. The analysis reveals that: • Two-thirds of employers report difficulty in finding workers with adequate work ethics or appropriate interpersonal and communications skills. Firm-based training increasingly focuses on socioemotional skills. • The more educated and employed workers tend to score higher on measures of grit, decision-making, agreeableness, and extroversion. • Socioemotional skills are associated with an increase in average daily earnings, in particular for women, young workers, less-educated workers, and those employed in the service sector. • Higher levels of socioemotional skills are also correlated with a greater probability of being employed, having completed secondary education, and pursuing tertiary education. Studies suggest that primary school is the optimal age for shaping socioemotional skills, but the Philippines’ elementary education curriculum devotes limited resources to their development. Schools continue to be judged solely by students’ performance in cognitive achievement tests, but not on soft-skills competencies, and teachers are not appropriately trained to foster the development of them. Finally, interventions targeting workers entering the labor force can also effectively bolster their socioemotional skills, complementing effects to improve labor-market information and vocational counseling.