Economic Premise
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The Economic Premise series summarizes good practices and key policy findings on topics related to economic policy. They are produced by the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) Network Vice-Presidency of the World Bank.
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Publication
Asset Prices, Macro Prudential Regulation, and Monetary Policy
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-05)Confidence in combining inflation-targeting-cum-flexible-exchange-rate regimes with isolated micro prudential regulation as a means to guarantee both macroeconomic and financial stability has been shattered by the scale and synchronization of the asset price booms and busts that preceded the global financial crisis. It has now become clear that if monetary policy makers and prudential regulators are to succeed in achieving stability, there can be no complacency regarding asset price cycles. This note explores some of the ways in which monetary policy can address asset price booms and busts through its integration with macro prudential regulation. -
Publication
The Brazilian Competitiveness Cliff
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-02)Brazilian exports of goods and services have grown sharply in recent years, with sales nearly three times higher in 2010 than in 2000. However, Brazil faces considerable competitiveness challenges: its export performance depends mostly on favorable geographical and sector composition effects. Such challenges increased after the recent global economic crisis. A recent slowdown in industrial exports, production, and investments seems related to supply-side difficulties stemming from a wide range of inefficiencies and rising costs, rather than insufficient demand. Although a stronger currency is one of the factors behind the lower competitiveness of Brazil's manufacturing exports, sluggish productivity performance, lack of dynamism at the firm level, and a real wage uptrend seem to explain a significant part of the overall loss of competitiveness. This diagnostic reinforces the urgency of resuming the agenda of microeconomic reforms, increasing the investment-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio, and advancing toward better-skilled human capital. -
Publication
Natural Capital and the Resource Curse
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-05)An abundance of natural resources is intuitively expected to be a blessing. Nonetheless, it has been argued for some decades that large endowments of natural resources oil, gas, and minerals in particular may actually become more of a curse, often leading to slow economic growth and redistributive struggles (including armed conflict). Over the years, vast empirical literature has addressed this "paradox." The literature has had to rely on proxies for natural resource abundance because of the lack of appropriate data, generating doubt on whether results would be similar if direct measures of natural wealth were available. This gap is now starting to be filled with the data series released by the World Bank (1997, 2006, 2011) on natural capital and other forms of countries' wealth. This note presents an analysis of these data to revisit some of the conclusions reached in the literature on the relationship between natural resource abundance and economic growth. The findings are in alignment with the view that there is no clear deterministic evidence of natural resource abundance as a curse or a blessing; therefore, the effect on a country depends on other determinants.