Economic Premise

121 items available

Permanent URI for this collection

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/9402

The Economic Premise series summarizes good practices and key policy findings on topics related to economic policy. They are produced by the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) Network Vice-Presidency of the World Bank.

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 66

Making Global Value Chains Work for Development

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-05) Taglioni, Daria ; Winkler, Deborah

Global value chains (GVCs) are playing an increasingly important role in business strategies, which has profoundly changed international trade and development paradigms. GVCs now represent a new path for development by helping developing countries accelerate industrialization and the servicification of the economy. From a firm perspective, production in the context of GVCs highlights the importance of being able to seamlessly connect factories across borders, as well as protect assets such as intellectual property. From the policy maker perspective, the focus is on shifting and improving access to resources while also advancing development goals, and also on the question of whether entry into GVCs delivers labor-market-enhancing outcomes for workers at home, as well as social upgrading. GVCs can lead to development, but, at the country level, constraints such as the supply of various types of labor and skills and inadequate absorptive capacity remain. GVCs can create new opportunities on the labor demand side, but supply and demand cannot meet if the supply is missing. This potential gap illustrates the importance of embedding national GVC policies into a broader portfolio of policies aimed at upgrading skills, physical and regulatory infrastructure, and enhancing social cohesion.
Investment Financing in the Wake of the Crisis: The Role of Multilateral Development Banks

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-06) Chelsky, Jeff ; Morel, Claire ; Kabir, Mabruk

Sustained growth in emerging markets and developing economies requires long-term, reliable capital to finance productive investment, including in basic infrastructure. However, the availability and composition of long-term financing is constrained, partly due to fragile market conditions and cyclical weaknesses in parts of the global economy, as well as longer-term trends. This has had a particularly negative impact on developing economies that do not have reliable access to international bond markets and on sectors that have traditionally relied on bank lending (such as infrastructure). At the same time, fiscal space has been eroded by the crisis, and the direct lending capacity of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) remains constrained. This heightens the importance of the catalytic role of the official sector in mobilizing long-term financing from the private sector by drawing on its ability to reduce and share risk. This note explores some of the ways in which MDBs are equipped to serve this purpose.
How to Avoid Middle-Income Traps?: Evidence from Malaysia

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-06) Flaaen, Aaron ; Ghani, Ejaz ; Mishra, Saurabh

Malaysias structural transformation from low to middle income has made it one of the most prominent manufacturing exporters in the world. However, in the competitive global economy, like many other middle-income economies, it is sandwiched between low-wage economies on one side and more innovative advanced economies on the other. What can Malaysia do? Does Malaysia need a new growth strategy?
Changing for the Better: The Path to Upper-Middle-Income Status in Uzbekistan

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-06) Trushin, Eskender ; Carneiro, Francisco G.

As a low-middle-income country with a gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of US$1,715 and a population of 30 million (nearly half of all of the Central Asian population), Uzbekistan has seen stable economic progress since the mid-2000s, both in terms of growth and poverty reduction. Growth has averaged 8 percent per year since 2004 and extreme poverty has declined from 27 percent in 2000 to 15 percent in 2012. Encouraged by this outstanding growth performance, the Uzbek authorities have set an ambitious goal for the country, to join the group of upper-middle-income countries by 2030. This note discusses the main challenges that the government is likely to face and the structural transformations that the economy will have to undergo to achieve this objective.
From Noise to Signal : The Successful Turnaround of Poverty Measurement in Colombia

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-05) Azevedo, João Pedro

In the mid-2000s, poverty measurement in Colombia was at a standstill. A dated poverty measurement methodology was clashing with improvements in the national household survey system. As a result, official poverty rates showed volatile trends, and a weak communication strategy produced an unconvincing storyline, which further resulted in the rapid deterioration of indicator credibility. This happened during a period of high and sustained growth that also included a number of poverty reduction interventions, such as the flagship program familias en accion and the unidos strategy. The public debate on poverty lost focus and moved from substantial policy discussions to technical measurement methods.
From Imitation to Innovation : Public Policy for Industrial Transformation

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-05) Agénor, Pierre-Richard ; Dinh, Hinh T.

What role does public policy play in helping countries accelerate the industrialization process? This note aims to answer this question by applying a framework to analyze the process of transitioning from imitation to innovation. Based on a dynamic model of growth, simulations suggest that learning through imitation may enable firms to improve productivity significantly in a first stage, and that this may eventually benefit innovation activity as well. The model also shows how failure to switch from imitation as the main source of productivity growth to broad-based, homegrown innovation could lead to the 'middle-income trap' that has befallen some countries.
Can Trade Reduce Poverty in Africa?

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-04) Le Goff, Maëlan ; Singh, Rajun Jan

While most economists accept that, in the long run, open economies fare better in aggregate than closed ones, many fears that trade could harm the poor. African countries, for example, have realized significant improvements in trade liberalization in recent decades, yet Africa remains the poorest continent in the world. It seems that the large gains expected from opening up to international economic forces have been limited in Africa, especially for poor people. Drawing on the findings of a recently published working paper (Le Goff and Singh 2013), this note argues that the benefits of trade are not automatic, but rather depend on accompanying policies aimed at developing the financial sector, promoting primary education, and improving governance. This accompanying policy agenda allows people to take advantage of the opportunities offered by freer trade, by reallocating resources away from less productive activities to more promising ones. Trade liberalization therefore should not be implemented on its own, but with the necessary complementing policies.
Global Connectivity and Export Performance

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-03) Arvis, Jean-François ; Shepherd, Ben

The World Bank has developed a novel method for measuring countries connectivity in global networks and has applied it to the global air transport network. Connectivity in this context is defined as a country s relative position in that network in terms of the total push and pull it exerts on air traffic, taking account of all possible links with other countries. Well-connected countries that are strongly connected to other well-connected countries are considered hubs in this definition. Less well-connected countries are spokes. The Air Connectivity Index (ACI) shows that connectivity is highly concentrated in North America and Europe ( hubs ); most developing countries are relatively poorly connected ( spokes ). Developing countries looking to increase their participation in global value chains need to improve their connectivity as part of their overall competitiveness strategy, including the progressive liberalization of their air transport sectors.
The Brazilian Competitiveness Cliff

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-02) Canuto, Otaviano ; Reis, Jose Guilherme ; Cavallari, Matheus

Brazilian exports of goods and services have grown sharply in recent years, with sales nearly three times higher in 2010 than in 2000. However, Brazil faces considerable competitiveness challenges: its export performance depends mostly on favorable geographical and sector composition effects. Such challenges increased after the recent global economic crisis. A recent slowdown in industrial exports, production, and investments seems related to supply-side difficulties stemming from a wide range of inefficiencies and rising costs, rather than insufficient demand. Although a stronger currency is one of the factors behind the lower competitiveness of Brazil's manufacturing exports, sluggish productivity performance, lack of dynamism at the firm level, and a real wage uptrend seem to explain a significant part of the overall loss of competitiveness. This diagnostic reinforces the urgency of resuming the agenda of microeconomic reforms, increasing the investment-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio, and advancing toward better-skilled human capital.
South East Europe Six : From Double-Dip Recession to Accelerated Reforms

(Washington, DC, 2013-01) World Bank

This note discusses the external environment, economic outlook, and key policy challenges for the six South East European Countries (SEE6)-Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH), Kosovo, the former Yugoslav Republic (FYR) of Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia-as they seek to reignite economic recovery. After two years of fragile recovery from the global recession, as a group, SEE6 countries experienced a double-dip recession in 2012. Deteriorating external conditions, the impact of the severe winter on economic activity, and a continuing rise in unemployment early in the year took a toll on consumption, investments, and exports. The rise in unemployment continues to threaten the social fabric. Credit recovery and fiscal consolidation are under threat. Nonperforming loans (NPLs)-thought to be stabilizing only a few months ago-are again on the rise. As a result, both within and outside the region, the environment has become much more difficult to navigate, and the policy trade-offs necessary to stabilize economies and reignite growth have become more difficult to make. To overcome these challenges, SEE6 countries need more intensive policy reform to reduce public debt and accelerate structural reforms, especially in fiscal consolidation and the financial sector, labor markets, and business environment. Additional external financing from International Financial Institutions (IFIs) for growth and jobs could prove effective, but only if accompanied by intensified fiscal and structural reforms.