Economic Premise

121 items available

Permanent URI for this collection

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/9402

The Economic Premise series summarizes good practices and key policy findings on topics related to economic policy. They are produced by the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) Network Vice-Presidency of the World Bank.

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 35

Inclusive Growth Revisited: Measurement and Determinants

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-07) Anand, Rahul ; Mishra, Saurabh ; Peiris, Shanaka J.

The call for inclusive growth has been unanimously broadcasted by policy makers across the world. The Arab spring, the growing divide between Main Street and Wall Street in advanced economies, and the three-speed world economy have placed inclusive growth at the forefront of policy debates. However, efforts to measure and assess the determinants of inclusive growth have remained limited. What is inclusive growth? How can the micro and macro dimensions of inequality and growth be integrated to reflect both the pace and distribution of economic growth? What has driven inclusive growth in emerging markets?
Investment Financing in the Wake of the Crisis: The Role of Multilateral Development Banks

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-06) Chelsky, Jeff ; Morel, Claire ; Kabir, Mabruk

Sustained growth in emerging markets and developing economies requires long-term, reliable capital to finance productive investment, including in basic infrastructure. However, the availability and composition of long-term financing is constrained, partly due to fragile market conditions and cyclical weaknesses in parts of the global economy, as well as longer-term trends. This has had a particularly negative impact on developing economies that do not have reliable access to international bond markets and on sectors that have traditionally relied on bank lending (such as infrastructure). At the same time, fiscal space has been eroded by the crisis, and the direct lending capacity of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) remains constrained. This heightens the importance of the catalytic role of the official sector in mobilizing long-term financing from the private sector by drawing on its ability to reduce and share risk. This note explores some of the ways in which MDBs are equipped to serve this purpose.
Changing for the Better: The Path to Upper-Middle-Income Status in Uzbekistan

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-06) Trushin, Eskender ; Carneiro, Francisco G.

As a low-middle-income country with a gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of US$1,715 and a population of 30 million (nearly half of all of the Central Asian population), Uzbekistan has seen stable economic progress since the mid-2000s, both in terms of growth and poverty reduction. Growth has averaged 8 percent per year since 2004 and extreme poverty has declined from 27 percent in 2000 to 15 percent in 2012. Encouraged by this outstanding growth performance, the Uzbek authorities have set an ambitious goal for the country, to join the group of upper-middle-income countries by 2030. This note discusses the main challenges that the government is likely to face and the structural transformations that the economy will have to undergo to achieve this objective.
Can Trade Reduce Poverty in Africa?

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-04) Le Goff, Maëlan ; Singh, Rajun Jan

While most economists accept that, in the long run, open economies fare better in aggregate than closed ones, many fears that trade could harm the poor. African countries, for example, have realized significant improvements in trade liberalization in recent decades, yet Africa remains the poorest continent in the world. It seems that the large gains expected from opening up to international economic forces have been limited in Africa, especially for poor people. Drawing on the findings of a recently published working paper (Le Goff and Singh 2013), this note argues that the benefits of trade are not automatic, but rather depend on accompanying policies aimed at developing the financial sector, promoting primary education, and improving governance. This accompanying policy agenda allows people to take advantage of the opportunities offered by freer trade, by reallocating resources away from less productive activities to more promising ones. Trade liberalization therefore should not be implemented on its own, but with the necessary complementing policies.
The Brazilian Competitiveness Cliff

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-02) Canuto, Otaviano ; Reis, Jose Guilherme ; Cavallari, Matheus

Brazilian exports of goods and services have grown sharply in recent years, with sales nearly three times higher in 2010 than in 2000. However, Brazil faces considerable competitiveness challenges: its export performance depends mostly on favorable geographical and sector composition effects. Such challenges increased after the recent global economic crisis. A recent slowdown in industrial exports, production, and investments seems related to supply-side difficulties stemming from a wide range of inefficiencies and rising costs, rather than insufficient demand. Although a stronger currency is one of the factors behind the lower competitiveness of Brazil's manufacturing exports, sluggish productivity performance, lack of dynamism at the firm level, and a real wage uptrend seem to explain a significant part of the overall loss of competitiveness. This diagnostic reinforces the urgency of resuming the agenda of microeconomic reforms, increasing the investment-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio, and advancing toward better-skilled human capital.
What Promises Does the Eurasian Customs Union Hold for the Future?

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-02) Carneiro, Francisco G.

Established in 2010, the Eurasian Customs Union (ECU) carries significant economic weight as three of its member countries represent a potentially large consumer market. Drawing on existing literature that has studied the likely impacts of the ECU in Central Asia, this note discusses the ECU's pitfalls and potential benefits. After briefly describing the main features of the ECU, this note assesses whether the changes introduced after its establishment have benefitted all of its members equally, and concludes with a discussion of what will need to change to achieve the ECU's full potential. Available evidence suggests that the Russian Federation has been the main beneficiary in the short term, but that there are several benefits to be gained by other members in the medium to long term. Full realization of these benefits, however, will require political commitment and steadfast action to reduce nontariff barriers (NTBs), improve trade facilitation, and reduce the costs of trading across borders in the region.
Collecting High-Frequency Data Using Mobile Phones : Do Timely Data Lead to Accountability?

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-01) Croke, Kevin ; Dabalen, Andrew ; Demombynes, Gabriel ; Giugale, Marcelo ; Hoogeveen, Johannes

As mobile phone ownership rates have risen dramatically in Africa, there has been increased interest in using mobile telephones as a data collection platform. This note draws on two largely successful pilot projects in Tanzania and South Sudan that used mobile phones for high-frequency data collection. Data were collected on a wide range of topics and in a manner that was cost-effective, flexible, and rapid. Once households were included in the survey, they tended to stick with it: respondent fatigue has not been a major issue. While attrition and nonresponse have been challenges in the Tanzania survey, these were due to design flaws in that particular survey, challenges that can be avoided in future similar projects. Ensuring use of the data to demand better service delivery and policy decisions turned out to be as challenging as collecting the high-quality data. Experiences in Tanzania suggest that good data can be translated into public accountability, but also demonstrate that just putting data out in the public domain is not enough. This note discusses lessons learned and offers suggestions for future applications of mobile phone surveys in developing countries, such as those planned for the World Bank's "Listening to Africa" initiative.
Avoiding Middle-Income Growth Traps

( 2012-11) Agénor, Pierre-Richard ; Canuto, Otaviano ; Jelenic, Michael

Since the 1950s, rapid growth has allowed a significant number of countries to reach middle-income status; yet, very few have made the additional leap needed to become high-income economies. Rather, many developing countries have become caught in what has been called a middle-income trap, characterized by a sharp deceleration in growth and in the pace of productivity increases. Drawing on the findings of a recently released working paper (Agenor and Canuto 2012), as well as a growing body of research on growth slowdowns, this note provides an analytical characterization of 'middle-income traps' as stable, low-growth economic equilibrium where talent is misallocated and innovation stagnates. To counteract middle-income traps, there are a number of public policies that governments can pursue, such as improving access to advanced infrastructure, enhancing the protection of property rights, and reforming labor markets to reduce rigidities all implemented within a context where technological learning and research and development (R&D) are central to enhancing innovation. Such policies not only explain why some economies particularly in East Asia were able to avoid the middle-income trap, but are also instructive for other developing countries seeking to move up the income ladder and reach high-income status.
The Euro Experience and Lessons for Latin America

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-10) Hurtado, Carlos

It is natural to think, and economic theory predicts, that integration in an economic zone like Europe fosters growth and development, particularly when integration refers to trade opening among countries. It is expected that openness (to trade) promotes growth and being closed (to trade) deters it. Trade theory also concludes that (trade) integration is beneficial to all countries, large and small, and that small economies are likely to benefit relatively more from integration. This note reviews the development of the European Union's euro zone and its impacts on growth and finds lessons that can be useful for Latin America.
Chasing the Shadows : How Significant is Shadow Banking in Emerging Markets?

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-09) Ghosh, Swati ; Gonzalez del Mazo, Ines ; Ötker-Robe, İnci

Broadly defined as credit intermediation involving entities and activities outside the regular banking system, shadow banking raises important policy concerns. Given significant challenges with data availability, the size, nature and significance of shadow banking in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) are even less discussed and understood. Shadow banking in EMDEs generally does not involve long, complex, opaque chains of intermediation, as is often the case in advanced economies. Nonetheless, it can pose systemic risks, both directly, as its importance in the total financial system grows (with the concomitant credit, market, and liquidity risks that its participants undertake), and indirectly through its interconnectedness with the regulated banking system. At the same time, shadow banks also play an important role in channeling alternative funding sources to EMDEs, especially as deleveraging pressures from European banks continue. This suggests that policy makers need to manage trade-offs carefully to ensure that shadow banks provide alternative but safe sources of funding to the private sector without generating additional systemic risks. Based on a snapshot of selected EMDEs in East Asia and in Central and Eastern Europe, and subject to caveats dictated by limited data availability, the shadow banking system is relatively small in most EMDEs, but has grown markedly in recent years, reaching a not insignificant share of the financial system in some countries, while remaining largely unregulated.