Economic Premise

121 items available

Permanent URI for this collection

http://hdl.handle.net/10986/9402

The Economic Premise series summarizes good practices and key policy findings on topics related to economic policy. They are produced by the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) Network Vice-Presidency of the World Bank.

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 28

Investment Financing in the Wake of the Crisis: The Role of Multilateral Development Banks

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-06) Chelsky, Jeff ; Morel, Claire ; Kabir, Mabruk

Sustained growth in emerging markets and developing economies requires long-term, reliable capital to finance productive investment, including in basic infrastructure. However, the availability and composition of long-term financing is constrained, partly due to fragile market conditions and cyclical weaknesses in parts of the global economy, as well as longer-term trends. This has had a particularly negative impact on developing economies that do not have reliable access to international bond markets and on sectors that have traditionally relied on bank lending (such as infrastructure). At the same time, fiscal space has been eroded by the crisis, and the direct lending capacity of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) remains constrained. This heightens the importance of the catalytic role of the official sector in mobilizing long-term financing from the private sector by drawing on its ability to reduce and share risk. This note explores some of the ways in which MDBs are equipped to serve this purpose.
Changing for the Better: The Path to Upper-Middle-Income Status in Uzbekistan

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-06) Trushin, Eskender ; Carneiro, Francisco G.

As a low-middle-income country with a gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of US$1,715 and a population of 30 million (nearly half of all of the Central Asian population), Uzbekistan has seen stable economic progress since the mid-2000s, both in terms of growth and poverty reduction. Growth has averaged 8 percent per year since 2004 and extreme poverty has declined from 27 percent in 2000 to 15 percent in 2012. Encouraged by this outstanding growth performance, the Uzbek authorities have set an ambitious goal for the country, to join the group of upper-middle-income countries by 2030. This note discusses the main challenges that the government is likely to face and the structural transformations that the economy will have to undergo to achieve this objective.
From Noise to Signal : The Successful Turnaround of Poverty Measurement in Colombia

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-05) Azevedo, João Pedro

In the mid-2000s, poverty measurement in Colombia was at a standstill. A dated poverty measurement methodology was clashing with improvements in the national household survey system. As a result, official poverty rates showed volatile trends, and a weak communication strategy produced an unconvincing storyline, which further resulted in the rapid deterioration of indicator credibility. This happened during a period of high and sustained growth that also included a number of poverty reduction interventions, such as the flagship program familias en accion and the unidos strategy. The public debate on poverty lost focus and moved from substantial policy discussions to technical measurement methods.
Can Trade Reduce Poverty in Africa?

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-04) Le Goff, Maëlan ; Singh, Rajun Jan

While most economists accept that, in the long run, open economies fare better in aggregate than closed ones, many fears that trade could harm the poor. African countries, for example, have realized significant improvements in trade liberalization in recent decades, yet Africa remains the poorest continent in the world. It seems that the large gains expected from opening up to international economic forces have been limited in Africa, especially for poor people. Drawing on the findings of a recently published working paper (Le Goff and Singh 2013), this note argues that the benefits of trade are not automatic, but rather depend on accompanying policies aimed at developing the financial sector, promoting primary education, and improving governance. This accompanying policy agenda allows people to take advantage of the opportunities offered by freer trade, by reallocating resources away from less productive activities to more promising ones. Trade liberalization therefore should not be implemented on its own, but with the necessary complementing policies.
The Brazilian Competitiveness Cliff

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-02) Canuto, Otaviano ; Reis, Jose Guilherme ; Cavallari, Matheus

Brazilian exports of goods and services have grown sharply in recent years, with sales nearly three times higher in 2010 than in 2000. However, Brazil faces considerable competitiveness challenges: its export performance depends mostly on favorable geographical and sector composition effects. Such challenges increased after the recent global economic crisis. A recent slowdown in industrial exports, production, and investments seems related to supply-side difficulties stemming from a wide range of inefficiencies and rising costs, rather than insufficient demand. Although a stronger currency is one of the factors behind the lower competitiveness of Brazil's manufacturing exports, sluggish productivity performance, lack of dynamism at the firm level, and a real wage uptrend seem to explain a significant part of the overall loss of competitiveness. This diagnostic reinforces the urgency of resuming the agenda of microeconomic reforms, increasing the investment-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio, and advancing toward better-skilled human capital.
Avoiding Middle-Income Growth Traps

( 2012-11) Agénor, Pierre-Richard ; Canuto, Otaviano ; Jelenic, Michael

Since the 1950s, rapid growth has allowed a significant number of countries to reach middle-income status; yet, very few have made the additional leap needed to become high-income economies. Rather, many developing countries have become caught in what has been called a middle-income trap, characterized by a sharp deceleration in growth and in the pace of productivity increases. Drawing on the findings of a recently released working paper (Agenor and Canuto 2012), as well as a growing body of research on growth slowdowns, this note provides an analytical characterization of 'middle-income traps' as stable, low-growth economic equilibrium where talent is misallocated and innovation stagnates. To counteract middle-income traps, there are a number of public policies that governments can pursue, such as improving access to advanced infrastructure, enhancing the protection of property rights, and reforming labor markets to reduce rigidities all implemented within a context where technological learning and research and development (R&D) are central to enhancing innovation. Such policies not only explain why some economies particularly in East Asia were able to avoid the middle-income trap, but are also instructive for other developing countries seeking to move up the income ladder and reach high-income status.
The Euro Experience and Lessons for Latin America

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-10) Hurtado, Carlos

It is natural to think, and economic theory predicts, that integration in an economic zone like Europe fosters growth and development, particularly when integration refers to trade opening among countries. It is expected that openness (to trade) promotes growth and being closed (to trade) deters it. Trade theory also concludes that (trade) integration is beneficial to all countries, large and small, and that small economies are likely to benefit relatively more from integration. This note reviews the development of the European Union's euro zone and its impacts on growth and finds lessons that can be useful for Latin America.
Enhancing the Capability of Central Finance Agencies

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-01) Allen, Richard ; Grigoli, Francesco

A well-organized and effective finance ministry and its associated central finance agencies (CFAs) are essential to good fiscal outcomes. Recent studies of CFAs in selected low-income countries demonstrate that their organizational structure varies widely and that decision making on public finance is strongly influenced by political economy factors. This note presents some common themes arising from the case studies and provides some descriptive evidence about the organizational structure of the CFAs. This note also includes evidence of a 'U-curve' pattern in the development of the organizational structure of CFAs over the long term. It confirms that political economy analysis, though difficult to apply in practice, is highly relevant in the development of reform strategies for strengthening CFAs and public financial management systems.
The WTO and the Doha Round : Walking on Two Legs

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-10) Hoekman, Bernard

The Doha Round of the World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations has been ongoing for 10 years, and given political cycles in major countries, there is not much hope for a rapid conclusion. The topics on the table are important, and in principle there is enough substance for all countries to gain from an agreement, but, unfortunately, too much emphasis has been placed on gains through market access alone. The Doha Round is about much more than market access. Concluding the talks arguably requires greater recognition of the value of trade policy disciplines that will be part of any agreement. The WTO is not just a market access negotiating forum; it is also a multilateral umbrella through which governments can agree on rules of the game for other trade-related policies. Given the slow progress of the Round, greater emphasis could be put on leveraging existing WTO bodies to enhance the transparency of nontariff measures, address regulatory concerns that impede liberalization of trade in services, and launch a dialogue on domestic economic policies that can create negative spillover effects for trading partners.
Trade Finance during the 2008–9 Trade Collapse : Key Takeaways

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-09-01) Chauffour, Jean-Pierre ; Malouche, Mariem

Trade finance matters for trade, and when financial markets and world trade collapsed three years ago, a shortage in trade finance was hailed as a possible culprit. Because of the potential for global repercussions, world leaders called on the international community to act swiftly to avoid a depression. Governments and international institutions intervened to mitigate the impacts of the crisis. Then the economy bounced back, and trade picked up. But what did we learn from the crisis? In retrospect, what role did trade finance actually play? Did the freeze in the financial markets cause the unprecedented drop in global trade in 2008-9? This note presents evidence on the role of trade finance during 2008-9 and highlights a few takeaways on the data and knowledge gap of trade finance and government interventions during financial crises.