Economic Premise

121 items available

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The Economic Premise series summarizes good practices and key policy findings on topics related to economic policy. They are produced by the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) Network Vice-Presidency of the World Bank.

Items in this collection

Now showing 1 - 7 of 7
  • Publication
    From Noise to Signal : The Successful Turnaround of Poverty Measurement in Colombia
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-05) Azevedo, João Pedro
    In the mid-2000s, poverty measurement in Colombia was at a standstill. A dated poverty measurement methodology was clashing with improvements in the national household survey system. As a result, official poverty rates showed volatile trends, and a weak communication strategy produced an unconvincing storyline, which further resulted in the rapid deterioration of indicator credibility. This happened during a period of high and sustained growth that also included a number of poverty reduction interventions, such as the flagship program familias en accion and the unidos strategy. The public debate on poverty lost focus and moved from substantial policy discussions to technical measurement methods.
  • Publication
    Gender Equality and Economic Growth in Brazil
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-03) Agénor, Pierre-Richard; Canuto, Otaviano
    This note studies the long-run impacts of policies aimed at fostering gender equality on economic growth in Brazil. After a brief review of gender issues in Brazil, this note describes a framework for quantifying the growth effects of gender-based policies in developing economies. The analysis is based on a computable overlapping generations (OLG) model that accounts for the impact of access to infrastructure on women's time allocation, as well as human capital accumulation, inter- and intra-generational health externalities, and bargaining between spouses. The model is calibrated for Brazil and is used to conduct two experiments, the first involving improved access to infrastructure, and the second a reduction in gender bias in the marketplace. The key lesson of these experiments, is that fostering gender equality, which may depend significantly on the externalities that infrastructure creates in terms of women's time allocation and bargaining power, can have a substantial impact on long-run growth in Brazil.
  • Publication
    The Brazilian Competitiveness Cliff
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-02) Canuto, Otaviano; Cavallari, Matheus
    Brazilian exports of goods and services have grown sharply in recent years, with sales nearly three times higher in 2010 than in 2000. However, Brazil faces considerable competitiveness challenges: its export performance depends mostly on favorable geographical and sector composition effects. Such challenges increased after the recent global economic crisis. A recent slowdown in industrial exports, production, and investments seems related to supply-side difficulties stemming from a wide range of inefficiencies and rising costs, rather than insufficient demand. Although a stronger currency is one of the factors behind the lower competitiveness of Brazil's manufacturing exports, sluggish productivity performance, lack of dynamism at the firm level, and a real wage uptrend seem to explain a significant part of the overall loss of competitiveness. This diagnostic reinforces the urgency of resuming the agenda of microeconomic reforms, increasing the investment-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio, and advancing toward better-skilled human capital.
  • Publication
    The Euro Experience and Lessons for Latin America
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-10) Hurtado, Carlos
    It is natural to think, and economic theory predicts, that integration in an economic zone like Europe fosters growth and development, particularly when integration refers to trade opening among countries. It is expected that openness (to trade) promotes growth and being closed (to trade) deters it. Trade theory also concludes that (trade) integration is beneficial to all countries, large and small, and that small economies are likely to benefit relatively more from integration. This note reviews the development of the European Union's euro zone and its impacts on growth and finds lessons that can be useful for Latin America.
  • Publication
    South-South Cooperation : How Mongolia Learned from Chile on Managing a Mineral-Rich Economy
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-09) van den Brink, Rogier; Sayed, Arshad; Barnett, Steve; Aninat, Eduardo; Parrado, Eric; Hasnain, Zahid; Khan, Tehmina
    Mongolia's mineral-rich economy was hit extremely hard by the global downturn during 2008-9, when copper prices plunged, external demand fell, and growth collapsed. The shock exposed serious underlying weaknesses in the management of the country's natural resource wealth, particularly the lack of policies to insulate the economy from commodity cycles and real exchange rate appreciation pressures, an inadequate safety net, and poor public investment planning. These issues gained further urgency with the signing of a major copper mining deal in 2009 that further increased the country's mineral dependence. As part of its reform efforts and with the assistance of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the government began an intensive south-south exchange, notably with Chile, another major copper producer, on strengthening the policy environment. The dialogue proved critical in the passage of several landmark laws within the space of a few years, including a fiscal stability law modeled after Chile, and the accompanying integrated budget and procurement and social welfare laws. These reforms will be crucial in managing the boom-bust cycle of mineral prices and mitigating Dutch disease effects by anchoring a prudent countercyclical fiscal policy, strengthening public financial management, increasing savings, and providing a fiscally sustainable social safety net targeted to the poor.
  • Publication
    Social Implications of Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-07) Verner, Dorte
    Climate change is the defining development challenge of our time. More than a global environmental issue, climate change is also a threat to poverty reduction and economic growth and may unravel many of the development gains made in recent decades. Latin America and the Caribbean account for a relatively modest twelve percent of the world's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but communities across the region are already suffering adverse consequences from climate change and variability. As highlighted in 'Reducing Poverty, Protecting Livelihoods, and Building Assets in a Changing Climate (Verner 2010), climate change is likely to have unprecedented social, economic, environmental, and political repercussions.
  • Publication
    A Brave New World for Latin America
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-04) Giugale, Marcelo M.
    With variations across countries, Latin America's economic agenda will change over the next few years. Fiscal policy will be monitored more independently, and may lean more against cycles. Financial regulation will be heavier, and less attuned with a single international model. Innovation will be at the center of trade strategies. Equity will begin to replace equality as the driver of social programs. More state agencies will be managed by results, starting the long process of earning citizens' trust. The region will play a larger global role, led by Brazil. And if the world's economy holds, most Latin Americans will be on a faster development path.