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The Economic Premise series summarizes good practices and key policy findings on topics related to economic policy. They are produced by the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) Network Vice-Presidency of the World Bank.
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A Changing China : Implications for Developing Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-05) Schellekens, PhilipThree decades of rapid growth and structural change have transformed China into an upper-middle-income country and global economic powerhouse. China's transformations over this period wielded increasing influence over the development path of other countries, either directly through bilateral trade and financial flows or indirectly through growth spillovers and terms of trade effects. Looking ahead, as China embarks on a new phase in its development journey, a phase characterized by slower but higher-quality growth, the economic landscape facing the developing world is expected to be redefined yet again. As China changes, so will its interactions with the outside world. China is expected to remain both a market and a competitor, but its changes are likely to lead to new opportunities for many and new challenges for some. Key questions in this respect are: (i) how will the level and composition of China's import demand evolve as its economy slows and rebalances; (ii) to what extent will the presumed out-migration of labor-intensive manufacturing materialize and create new opportunities elsewhere; and (iii) how quickly will China move up the value chain and redefine its competitive advantage in the global marketplace? How these uncertain long-term developments affect individual countries will depend on differences in total supply chain costs, resource availability, and innovation capability. As in the past, China's transformations are expected to put formidable pressure on countries to adapt and reform, requiring both political will and entrepreneurial capacity, in a collective race where success will be measured against a rapidly moving frontier.
Capital Account Liberalization : Does Advanced Economy Experience Provide Lessons for China?(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-02) Chelsky, JeffThe initial post World War II pursuit of capital account liberalization (CAL) by advanced economies was Europe-centric, with roots in a broader political rather than economic agenda of greater European integration. In continental Europe, CAL was addressed mostly through the adoption of multilateral instruments and codes. In contrast, CAL by the United States and United Kingdom was pursued unilaterally, motivated by their status as global reserve currency issuers and global financial centers. China's situation is fundamentally different. China today has no equivalent to the European political motivation for CAL or the domestically driven financial motivation of the United States or the United Kingdom. And while China may have long-term aspirations to be a global reserve currency issuer, the extent to which it internationalizes its currency is constrained by powerful domestic economic and political interests that continue to benefit from an export-led growth model underpinned by a pegged and undervalued exchange rate, both of which are difficult to maintain with an open capital account. Alongside China's overarching concern with the maintenance of financial and economic stability, these factors imply a different path for China than paths taken by advanced economies, with significant acceleration in the gradual pace of liberalization unlikely without accelerated development of domestic constituencies that traditionally support CAL.
Subnational Debt Finance and the Global Financial Crisis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-05) Canuto, Otaviano ; Liu, LiliThis note focuses on the impact of the global financial crisis on subnational debt financing. The report approach the following questions: why is subnational debt financing important? What are the impacts of the crisis on the fiscal balance and financing cost of subnational governments (SNGs)? What explains the variations across countries in the ability of SNGs to proactively address the threat of fiscal deterioration? And, equally important, what are the long-term structural challenges facing SNGs in sustainable financing of infrastructure and social services?
China’s Investment in African Special Economic Zones : Prospects, Challenges, and Opportunities(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-03) Brautigam, Deborah ; Farole, Thomas ; Xiaoyang, TangChina's recent moves to establish special economic zones (SEZs) in several African countries can make a significant contribution to industrialization in Africa. But the success of these projects is by no means guaranteed. Meeting the objectives of both China and African countries will require an active partnership and a framework for collaboration that includes engagement from host governments, processes for phasing-in local control, communication and enforcement of standards, and support for integration with local economies.