Europe and Central Asia Knowledge Brief
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This is a regular series of notes highlighting recent analyses, good practices, and lessons learned from the development work program of the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia Region.
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Publication
Tajikistan : Reinvigorating Growth in Khatlon Oblast
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-06) Carneiro, Francisco ; Bakanova, MarinaThis report supports a joint World Bank-IFC initiative to review and evaluate economic growth prospects for Khatlon oblast in order to develop a private sector-driven strategy for accelerating the region's growth over the medium term. -
Publication
Employment Recovery Stalls in Europe and Central Asia
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-04) Koettl, Johannes ; Mata, Elizabeth ; Saiovici, Gady ; Santos, IndhiraEmployment recovery stalls in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) continues to recover in most ECA countries, but the recovery remains fragile. Growth prospects remain poor in a number of countries where GDP continues to decline. This slowdown in the economic recovery is also evident at the sub-regional level. Unemployment has stabilized, with an average unemployment rate of 12 percent across the ECA region. Since the start of the crisis, men have been disproportionally hit by unemployment. The recent pace of job creation has not been sufficient to absorb the large pool of unemployed, resulting in growing long-term unemployment. Despite the rise in long-term unemployment, activity rates have increased or remained constant in most countries since 2008. ECA labor markets adjusted to the crisis not only through higher unemployment, but also through fewer work hours. Given the already low levels of employment in the region and a bleak demographic outlook, avoiding labor market detachment among the long-term unemployed, the inactive, and youth is the main challenge for policy makers in the near term. -
Publication
Active Labor Market Programs : How, Why, When, and To What Extent are they Effective?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-12) Brown, Alessio J.G. ; Koettl, JohannesActive labor market programs (ALMPs) aim to keep workers employed, bring them into employment, increase their productivity and earnings, and improve the functioning of labor markets. ALMPs to retain employment, for example, work-sharing schemes, should be used only for short periods during severe recessions. More cost-effective and useful during recoveries are ALMPs to create employment, which strengthen outsiders labor market attachment and support the outflow out of unemployment. Training programs are especially effective over the long term, particularly the more they target disadvantaged outsiders. ALMPs that improve labor market matching are highly beneficial, but effective only in the short run. ALMPs in general might be more cost effective over the long term (3-10 years) and some may even be self-financing, suggesting that long-term evaluations are needed to better ascertain the impact of individual policies. -
Publication
Social Safety Nets in Europe and Central Asia : Preparing for Crisis, Adapting to Demographic Change, and Promoting Employability
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-04) Williams, Penny ; Larrison, Jennica ; Strokova, Victoria ; Lindert, KathySocial safety nets in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region responded to protect people's incomes during the global recession, especially in countries where systems were developed before the crisis. As population's age and labor forces shrink, the elderly will increasingly rely on general revenues to supplement contributory pensions, competing with assistance for other vulnerable groups. Social safety nets that link to employment and other services can help people transition from reliance on social transfers to employability. Countries should not wait to confront these challenges. To further strengthen social safety nets, governments in ECA should consolidate and harmonize benefits, invest in systems improvements for greater efficiency, link social assistance and employment services, and actively communicate these reforms to their populations. -
Publication
Employment Recovery in Europe and Central Asia
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-06) Koettl, Johannes ; Oral, Isil ; Santos, IndhiraDespite high unemployment in most Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA) countries, people have not withdrawn from the labor market but continue to actively look for jobs. Unemployment increased significantly in ECA countries during the crisis, particularly among youth. However, young people are also the ones benefiting most from the recovery. Labor market recovery remained sluggish up to the third quarter of 2010. Many countries have seen only a slight recovery in unemployment rates, although output is recovering everywhere. Up to the third quarter of 2010, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) upturn in most ECA countries appeared to be driven by increases in productivity and hours worked; however, these are still below pre-crisis levels. This suggests that there is room in most countries for further increases in productivity and hours worked, which could delay the recovery in employment. -
Publication
Unemployment Registration and Benefits in ECA Countries
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-04) Kuddo, ArvoPublic Employment Services (PES) in several Europe and Central Asia (ECA) countries are severely limited by underfunded labor market programs, understaffing, and fragmented networks of employment offices. Cash benefits and other entitlements like health insurance often act as incentives to job seekers to register with PES. However, such benefits can and often do encourage unemployment registration by economically inactive individuals. Registered unemployment exceeds survey based unemployment rates in about half of ECA countries (mostly Central Europe and Western Balkans). Registered unemployment is much lower than survey-based unemployment in the Baltic States and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, primarily due to low access to unemployment benefits and active labor market programs (ALMPs). The numbers of unemployment assistance beneficiaries vary significantly across ECA. In 2009, for example, 85 percent of the registered unemployed in Russia received benefits but, in eight ECA countries, less than 10 percent of the registered unemployed received such assistance. -
Publication
Employment-Related Mitigation Measures in ECA Countries
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-02) Kuddo, ArvoThere are growing constraints on public finances in many countries due to the actual and projected build-up of public debt, which limits the scope of labor market interventions. Only a few Europe and Central Asia (ECA) countries (most notably Estonia, Kazakhstan and Russia) had set aside resources that can now be used to cushion an externally driven economic slowdown. Currently, the labor market situation in many ECA countries can be characterized as lack of demand for labor. Overall, in 27 ECA countries for which data are available for June 2008 to June 2009, registered unemployment increased from 8.460 million to 11.354 million, or around 34 percent. The number of registered unemployed increased the most in three Baltic States, Turkey and Moldova. Nevertheless, most governments in ECA have responded to the global economic crisis by making additional resources available for labor market and social policies, and with discretionary policy measures to cushion the negative effects of the crisis on workers and low-income households. Spending on unemployment benefits has increased automatically as job losses have mounted, and many governments have moved promptly to scale-up resources for active labor market programs. -
Publication
Enhancing the Employment Chances of Roma
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-03) Bodewig, Christian ; Kureková, LuciaRoma communities in central and southeastern Europe have a history of being excluded from the labor market and still face severe barriers to employment. Besides being marginalized socially, Roma were typically the first to lose their jobs at the outset of the post-communist transition. Many in their next generation grew up in unemployed households, with low educational attainments and limited job skills. The labor market exclusion of Roma persisted even through the years of buoyant economic growth and increasing employment levels prior to the economic slowdown triggered by the global financial crisis in 2008. Many governments in central and southeastern Europe are trying to address the unemployment problem of Roma and other disadvantaged groups by introducing measures to restrict or cut welfare benefit entitlements, so as to strengthen incentives to work. However, research by the World Bank and others shows that simply cutting benefits is unlikely to result in higher employment the labor market exclusion and social marginalization of Roma is a multifaceted issue, and their communities face multidimensional barriers to employment. A more effective way to promote employment among Roma (and other disadvantaged groups) is the employment activation approach increasingly being introduced across many countries in the European Union and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). This approach balances the mutual obligations of jobseekers and state employment offices in order to secure the successful integration of the most disadvantaged workers.