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Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-01) Taheripour, Farzad ; Tyner, Wallace E. ; Haqiqi, Iman ; Sajedinia, EhsanrezaMorocco is expected to be faced with a major water shortfall prompted by either expansion in demand for water or reduction in precipitation induced by climate change. This paper examines the economywide impacts of these factors for Morocco. It uses a computable general equilibrium model augmented with submodules that trace consumption of water by uses and land allocation across sectors including crops, livestock, and forestry. Results show that water scarcity and changes in crop yields induced by climate change could reduce the GDP of Morocco up to 6.7 billion US dollars per year at 2016 constant prices and eliminate many job opportunities, in particular in the rural areas of this country. Only a portion of these negative impacts can be removed with improvements in water use efficiency. The factors mentioned above will reduce productivity of Morocco’s cropland and have the potential to reduce irrigated areas. Due to these changes, production of crops and food products are expected to fall, with increases in crop prices by up to 14.3 percent, assuming other factors being equal. Investment in water use efficiency practices that save water, in particular in agricultural activities, and shifting toward more valuable and less water intensive crops can help to partially mitigate these adverse impacts.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-12-10) Russ, Jason ; Damania, Richard ; Desbureaux, Sebastien ; Escurra, Jorge ; Rodella, Aude-Sophie ; Zaveri, EshaSalinity in surface waters is on the rise throughout much of the world. Many factors contribute to this change including increased water extraction, poor irrigation management, and sea-level rise. To date no study has attempted to quantify impacts on global food production. In this paper we develop a plausibly causal model to test the sensitivity of global and regional agricultural productivity to changes in water salinity. To do so, we utilize several local and global datasets on water quality and agricultural productivity and a model which isolates the impact of exogenous changes in water salinity on yields. We then train a machine learning model to predict salinity globally in order to simulate average global food losses from 2000-2013. These losses are found to be high, in the range of the equivalent of 124 trillion kilocalories, or enough to feed over 170 million people every day, each year. Global maps building on these results show that pockets of high losses occur on all continents but can be expected to be particularly problematic in regions already experiencing malnutrition challenges.
Better Data, Better Results: Remote Sensing as a Tool for Monitoring Water Quality in Lake Toba, Indonesia(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06-01) World BankLake Toba is a unique natural asset of global significance with a rich cultural heritage located in the North Sumatra Province of Indonesia. Located 904 meters above sea level and with a maximum depth of more than 500 meters, this 87-kilometer-long lake provides a wide range of economic and environmental goods and services for more than half a million people and 400 villages in the seven districts covered by the lake's 3,658 square kilometer catchment. However, sustaining the long-term economic and environmental value of Lake Toba depends on addressing the deterioration of water quality. This technical guidance note reports on the potential benefits of using remote sensing as part of an integrated strategy to improve the monitoring and management of water quality in Lake Toba.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06) Garrick, Dustin ; De Stefano, Lucia ; Turley, Laura ; Jorgensen, Isabel ; Aguilar-Barajas, Ismael ; Schreiner, Barbara ; de Souza Leão, Renata ; O’Donnell, Erin ; Horne, AvrilRural regions are often seen as key sources of urban water supply, creating pressure for reallocation and potential hotspots of competition for water between cities and agriculture. How effective and equitable is reallocation from rural to urban regions, and what have we learned from the global experience? This synthesis report examines the drivers, processes, politics, and outcomes of reallocation based on a review of the literature and insights from four in-depth case studies where governments have reallocated relatively large volumes of water from rural to urban regions: Melbourne, Australia; Mokopane, South Africa; Monterrey, Mexico; and São Paulo, Brazil. The findings suggest that water reallocation can play an important role in regional development. However, reallocation projects have also been controversial because of distributional conflicts regarding who wins and loses. The concept of benefit sharing, long applied to transboundary river basin management, offers a framework for designing effective and equitable reallocation processes, shifting the focus from dividing the water to sharing the benefits among rural and urban regions. The report identifies seven key lessons for realizing the potential of reallocation and limiting the risks.