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Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-09-28) Taheripour, Farzad ; Tyner, Wallace E. ; Sajedinia, Ehsanreza ; Aguiar, Angel ; Chepeliev, Maksym ; Corong, Erwin ; de Lima, Cicero Z. ; Haqiqi, ImanInnovations in water management and irrigated agriculture powered water-scarce Middle Eastern economies for millennia. However, as water becomes scarcer because of population growth and economic development, and even more erratic because of climate change, the region’s water security is coming under increasing threat. This report applies an economic model, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium model, to assess the economic impacts of water scarcity for six Middle Eastern countries and also to examine how water-use efficiency improvements and trade can mitigate these impacts. A 20 percent reduction in water supply could decrease GDP by up to 10 percent, compared to 2016 levels. Furthermore, increased water scarcity could reduce labor demand by up to 12 percent and lead to significant land-use changes, including loss of beneficial hydrological services. The report emphasizes how the growing dependence on shared water resources reinforces the need to manage water across boundaries. The message is clear: unless new and transformative policies for sustainable, efficient and cooperative water management are promoted, water scarcity will negatively impact the region’s economic prospects and undermine its human and natural capital.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-01) Taheripour, Farzad ; Tyner, Wallace E. ; Haqiqi, Iman ; Sajedinia, EhsanrezaMorocco is expected to be faced with a major water shortfall prompted by either expansion in demand for water or reduction in precipitation induced by climate change. This paper examines the economywide impacts of these factors for Morocco. It uses a computable general equilibrium model augmented with submodules that trace consumption of water by uses and land allocation across sectors including crops, livestock, and forestry. Results show that water scarcity and changes in crop yields induced by climate change could reduce the GDP of Morocco up to 6.7 billion US dollars per year at 2016 constant prices and eliminate many job opportunities, in particular in the rural areas of this country. Only a portion of these negative impacts can be removed with improvements in water use efficiency. The factors mentioned above will reduce productivity of Morocco’s cropland and have the potential to reduce irrigated areas. Due to these changes, production of crops and food products are expected to fall, with increases in crop prices by up to 14.3 percent, assuming other factors being equal. Investment in water use efficiency practices that save water, in particular in agricultural activities, and shifting toward more valuable and less water intensive crops can help to partially mitigate these adverse impacts.