Africa's Pulse
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Africa’s Pulse is a biannual publication containing an analysis of the near-term macroeconomic outlook for the region. Each issue also includes a section focusing upon a topic that represents a particular development challenge for the continent. It is produced by the Office of the Chief Economist for the Africa Region of the World Bank.
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Publication
Africa’s Pulse, No. 28, October 2023: Delivering Growth to People through Better Jobs
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-10-04)Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to slow to 2.5 percent in 2023 from 3.6 percent in 2022. It is projected to increase to 3.7 percent in 2024 and 4.1 percent in 2025. However, in per capita terms, the region is projected to slightly contract over 2015-2025. The region faces many challenges, including a "lost decade" of sluggish growth, persistently low per capita income, mounting fiscal pressures exacerbated by high debt burdens, and an urgent need for job creation. Tackling these multifaceted issues requires comprehensive reforms to promote economic prosperity, reduce poverty, and create sustainable employment opportunities in the region. This will require an ecosystem that facilitates firm entry, stability, growth, and skill development that matches business demand. -
Publication
Africa’s Pulse, No. 27, April 2023: Leveraging Resource Wealth During the Low Carbon Transition
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-04-05)Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa slowed to 3.6 percent in 2022, from 4.1 percent in 2021 but may be bottoming out. Weak investment growth and macroeconomic instability are weighing on economic activity. Inflation remains persistently high and above target despite early and sizable interest rate increase. Amid unfavorable global financial conditions and high levels of debt, African policymakers must bank on their domestic policy space to restore macroeconomic stability, deepen structural reforms to foster inclusive growth, and implement policies that harness the region's resource wealth during the low carbon transmission. This natural wealth holds significant untapped economic potential to address fiscal challenges and drive economic transformation. The low carbon transition is irreversible and will be intensive in the minerals required for the clean energy transition, many of which are abundant across Africa. -
Publication
Africa's Pulse, No. 26, October 2022 : Food System Opportunities in a Turbulent Time: Opportunités pour le Système Alimentaire dans une Période de Turbulence
(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022-10-04)African economies are facing a series of challenges to their post-pandemic recovery. Economic activity in the region is slowing to 3.3 percent amid global headwinds, including weak global growth and tightening global financial conditions. Elevated inflation rates and resulting policy tightening, as well as the rising risk of debt distress, are also impacting economic activity. While food insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa was increasing before the onset of Covid-19, the pandemic and the food and energy crisis have contributed to the recent steep increase in food insecurity and malnutrition. Climate shocks, low productivity in agriculture, lack of infrastructure also contribute to rising food insecurity in the region. The economic fallout from the multiple crises affecting the region has lowered household incomes, increased poverty, widen inequality and heightened food insecurity. This report discusses short-term measures combined with medium- to long-term policy actions that can strengthen African countries' capacity to build resilience and seize opportunities to unlock productivity-enhancing growth while protecting the poor and vulnerable. -
Publication
Africa's Pulse, No. 25, April 2022
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-04-13)Sub-Saharan Africa's recovery from the pandemic is expected to decelerate in 2022 amid a slowdown in global economic activity, continued supply constraints, outbreaks of new coronavirus variants, climatic shocks, high inflation, and rising financial risks due to high and increasingly vulnerable debt levels. The war in Ukraine has exacerbated the already existing tensions and vulnerabilities affecting the continent. Given the sources of growth in the region and the nature of the economic linkages with Russia and Ukraine, the war in Ukraine might have a marginal impact on economic growth and on overall poverty—as this shock affects mostly the urban poor and vulnerable people living just above the poverty line. However, its largest impact is on the increasing likelihood of civil strife as a result of food- and energy-fueled inflation amid an environment of heightened political instability. The looming threats of stagflation require a two-pronged strategy that combines short-term measures to contain inflationary pressures and medium-to-long-term policies that accelerate the structural transformation and create more and better jobs. In response to supply shocks, monetary policy in the region may prove ineffective to bring down inflation and other short-run options may be restricted by the lack of fiscal space. Concessional financing might be key to helping countries alleviate the impact of food and fuel inflation. Over the medium term, avoiding stagflation may require a combination of actionable measures that improve the resilience of the economy by shoring up productivity and job creation. Lastly, ongoing actions to enhance social protection—including dynamic delivery systems for rapid scalability and shock-sensitive financing—could be strengthened further to improve economic resilience against shocks and foster investments in productive assets. -
Publication
Africa's Pulse, No. 16, October 2017
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-10)Following a sharp slowdown over the past two years, a recovery is underway in Sub-Saharan Africa. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the region is expected to strengthen to 2.4 percent in 2017 from 1.3 percent in 2016, slightly below the pace previously projected. The rebound is being led by the region's largest economies. In the second quarter of 2017, Nigeria exited a five-quarter recession and South Africa emerged from two successive quarters of negative growth. Economic activity has also picked up in Angola. Elsewhere, an increase in mining output along with a pickup in the agriculture sector is boosting economic activity in metals exporters. GDP growth is stable in non-resource intensive countries, supported by domestic demand. But the recovery is weak in several important dimensions. Regional per capita output growth is forecast to be negative for the second consecutive year, while investment growth remains low, and productivity growth is falling. -
Publication
Africa's Pulse, No. 15, April 2017
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-04)Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to recover to 2.6 percent in 2017, following a marked deceleration in 2016. The upturn in economic activity is expected to continue in 2018-19, reflecting improvements in commodity prices, a pickup in global growth, and more supportive domestic conditions. The pace of the recovery remains weak, however, as the region's three largest economies – Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa – are projected to post only a modest rebound in growth following a sharp slowdown in 2016. Investment growth will recover only gradually, amid tight foreign exchange liquidity conditions in major oil exporters and low investor confidence in South Africa. Growth will be limited in several metals exporters, as well as in oil exporters in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community, as these countries embark on fiscal adjustment to stabilize their economies. Among non-resource intensive countries, such as Ethiopia, Senegal, and Tanzania, growth is expected to remain generally solid, supported by domestic demand. -
Publication
Africa's Pulse, No. 14, October 2016
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-09-28)After slowing to 3 percent in 2015, economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to fall to 1.6 percent in 2016, the lowest level in over two decades. Low commodity prices and tight financial conditions, exacerbated by domestic headwinds from policy uncertainty, droughts, and political and security concerns, continued to weigh on activity across the region. The overall slowdown in Sub-Saharan Africa's growth reflects economic deterioration in the region's largest economies. Economic performance was notably weak across oil exporters. At the same time, in about a quarter of the countries, economic growth is showing signs of resilience. Indeed, the pattern of growth across countries is far from homogeneous, suggesting that Sub- Saharan Africa is growing at diverging speeds. While many countries are registering a sharp slippage in economic growth, some countries—Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Tanzania—are continuing to post annual average growth rates of over 6 percent, exceeding the top tercile of the regional distribution; and several other countries—including Côte d'Ivoire and Senegal—have moved into the top tercile of performers. The "established" and "improved" performers tend to have stronger quality of monetary and fiscal policies, better business regulatory environment, more diverse structure of exports, and more effective public institutions. -
Publication
Africa's Pulse, No.13, April 2016
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-04-11)Urbanization is a source of dynamism that can enhance productivity and increase economic integration, a principle evident from the experience of today’s high-income countries and rapidly emerging economies. Indeed, during the Industrial Age, no country has achieved sustained increases in national income without urbanization. If well managed, cities can help countries accelerate growth and “open the doors” to global markets in two ways: by creating productive environments that attract international investment and increase economic efficiency; and by creating livable environments that prevent urban costs from rising excessively with increased densification. By generating agglomeration economies, cities can enhance productivity and spur innovation and national economic diversification. The underlying reason for this is economic density. This report includes the following highlights: growth will remain lackluster in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2016, weighed down by low and volatile commodity prices; addressing growing economic vulnerabilities and developing new sources of sustainable, inclusive growth are key priorities for the region; and Africa’s rapid urbanization offers a potential springboard for economic diversification. But building cities that work will require reforming land markets and urban regulations, and coordinating early infrastructure investments. -
Publication
Africa's Pulse, October 2015
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-10-05)External headwinds and domestic difficulties are impacting economic activity in Sub-Saharan Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth will decelerate in 2015 amid weak global economic conditions. Some countries, however, will continue posting solid growth. Sub-Saharan Africa is entering a period of tightening borrowing conditions amid growing domestic and external vulnerabilities. Reflecting the widening fiscal deficits, government debt has continued to rise in many countries. Weak fundamentals, combined with the strong appreciation of the U.S. dollar, have kept currencies across the region under pressure throughout the year. Policy buffers are low in several countries, constraining the response to the current environment and underscoring the need for African countries to improve domestic resource mobilization and enhance public expenditure efficiency. Progress in reducing income poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa may have been faster than the authors thought, but poverty remains high. The region’s growth deceleration challenges efforts to reduce poverty. -
Publication
Africa's Pulse, April 2014 : An Analysis of Issues Shaping Africa's Economic Future
(Washington, DC, 2014-04)This Africa's pulse newsletter includes the following The economic outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa remains robust, but growth is vulnerable to lower commodity prices and a slowdown in capital flows, the frequency and strength of growth spurts have increased, and growth has shifted the structure of African economies in favor of the resources and services sectors.