Miscellaneous Knowledge Notes

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  • Publication
    Vietnam Macro Monitoring, January 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-02-04) World Bank
    Industrial production increased in December 2024. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) increased from 1.6 percent (m/m, SA) in November to 2.1 percent (m/m, SA) in December 2024, as businesses ramped up production to meet year-end consumer demand. The improvement is due to the increased production of key export products such as textiles, footwear, furniture, electronics, and electrical equipment. Manufacturing production for domestic consumption such as food and beverages also expanded. However, in terms of prospects, Viet Nam’s PMI was down from 50.8 in November to 49.8 in December, entering contractionary territory, as new orders growth slowed, while firms scaled back employment and inventories.
  • Publication
    Vietnam Macro Monitoring, December 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-13) World Bank
    Industrial production improved in November 2024, driven by an increased production of key export and manufactured products. While staying in expansionary territory, Vietnam’s PMI inched down slightly from 51.2 in October to 50.8 in November as the growth of new orders softened. Exports and imports growth continued to slow, driven by a contraction of tech exports (phones and equipment) and a small deceleration of non-tech exports (including footwear and textiles) due to weaker global demand and lingering supply chain disruptions caused by typhoon Yagi. Year-on-year export growth moderated from 10.2 percent y/y in October to 8.2 percent y/y in November. Mirroring the moderation of export growth, import growth decelerated from 13.6 percent y/y in October to 9.8 percent y/y in November. The trade balance registered a small surplus of 1.1 billion US dollars in November 2024 and totaled US 23.8 billion dollars in the first 11 months of 2024. Revenue collection during the first 11 months of 2024 was 16.1 percent higher than during 2023 due to improved economic activities. Revenue collection reached 106.1 percent of what had been planned for 2024. The public investment disbursement rate accelerated from 52.3 percent of the Prime Minister’s approved budget allocation in October 2024 to 73.5 percent in November 2024. However, it remained slightly below the 76.5 percent disbursement rate from the same period of last year.
  • Publication
    Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, October 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-24) World Bank
    The economy decelerated slightly. Manufacturing and private consumption weakened while exports and tourism continued to support growth. Growth is projected to accelerate to 2.4 percent in 2024, with further improvement expected in the second half of the year driven by increased budget execution and goods exports. Despite low government investment disbursement, the THB 10,000 cash handouts for low-income households may stimulate growth. However, flooding poses downside risks to growth and may add to price pressure. Inflation edged up due to fresh food and core inflation. The Thai baht appreciated due to expectations of a Federal Reserve easing cycle and a current account surplus. The Bank of Thailand (BOT) unexpectedly lowered the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent.
  • Publication
    Vietnam Macro Monitoring, October 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-23) World Bank
    Gross domestic products (GDP) growth registered 7.4 percent (y/y) in Q3-2024 at Viet Nam, its highest in two years, driven by non-tech exports and the ongoing domestic demand recovery. Typhoon Yagi hit northern Viet Nam in September, leading to significant economic damages of US 3.2 billion (0.7 percent of GDP). Agricultural production was the hardest-hit sector, accounting for 38 percent of the total economic losses. FDI investments expanded robustly, totaling US$ 24.6 billion in the last 12 months, an 8.3 percent increase compared to a year earlier. Inflation continued to moderate, registering 2.6 percent (y/y) in September 2024, from 3.5 percent in August 2024, as transport prices declined, food inflation remained stable and core inflation decelerated to 2.5 percent (y/y). Slow budget disbursement continues to remain a concern, with 59.3 percent of the public expenditure plan disbursed in the first nine months of 2024 (slightly below the disbursement rate of 59.7 percent at the same period last year), including 47.3 percent of public investments executed.
  • Publication
    Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, September 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-23) World Bank
    Economic activity improved, driven by external demand for exports and tourism. Manufacturing growth turned positive, supported by a surge in goods exports. However, internal drivers weighed on growth. Private consumption growth decelerated, impacted by stricter credit conditions. The acceleration of fiscal spending proved slower than expected, but a higher FY25 budget spending could support growth. The revised digital wallet is expected to boost gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter of 2024. The Thai baht appreciated driven by expectations of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle and a persistent current account surplus. Inflation remained among the lowest in emerging markets, falling to 0.4 percent, due to lower energy prices; core inflation remained subdued due to weak domestic demand.
  • Publication
    Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor: 29 August, 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-03) World Bank
    Growth accelerated in Q2 to 2.3 percent, slightly above expectations, but the recovery continued to lag ASEAN peers. In June, data indicated a subdued recovery, with activity slowing and consumer confidence declining amid heightened political uncertainty. While manufacturing growth expanded modestly for the full quarter, June activity data shows a renewed decline, and the growth in tourist arrivals slowed. The trade deficit persisted, driven by lagging export recovery and rising imports, particularly from China. Inflation edged up slightly to 0.8 percent (y/y) but remained among the lowest in emerging markets. Fiscal spending accelerated despite political uncertainty; the Bank of Thailand maintained its policy rate while easing credit card repayment regulations to support households. The Thai baht appreciated, driven by expectations of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle and a persistent current account surplus.
  • Publication
    Vietnam Macro Monitoring, May 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-09) World Bank
    Industrial production showed a significant increase, with the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growing by 2.6 percent month-on-month (m/m) and 8.9 percent year-on-year (y/y), attributed to improved exports, particularly in manufacturing sectors. Retail sales experienced a modest recovery, growth rate indicated that consumer demand remains relatively weak. Both exports and imports experienced a surge, with exports and imports growing. The y/y growth rates were also substantial, suggesting increased demand from trade partners. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) commitments and disbursements were solid, with the majority of FDI flowing into manufacturing and real estate sectors. Inflation rates remained stable, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation at 4.4 percent y/y and core inflation slightly moderating. The Vietnamese Dong (VND) continued to face depreciation pressure against the US Dollar (USD), and the interbank interest rates reflected a tightening of liquidity by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). Public revenue collection improved, but public expenditures and investment disbursements showed a slower pace. The government and SBV proposed measures to support the economy, including extending VAT reduction, reducing lending interest rates, and advancing the implementation of revised real estate laws. The report also notes that while there is a recovery in external demand, domestic demand and consumption show mixed signs. The authorities' measures aim to support the economy, but there are concerns about the impact of a strong US dollar and interest rate reductions on the exchange rate. The recommendation is to continue supporting aggregate demand through capital expenditures.
  • Publication
    Indonesia Coral Bond - An Innovative Ocean Financing Instrument
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-06-05) World Bank
    Thanks to funding support from the PROBLUE and Indonesia Oceans, Marine Debris and Coastal Resources Multi-Donor Trust Funds, the World Bank, the Government of Indonesia, the Global Environment Facility, the International Union for Conservation of Nature, and BNP Paribas are joining forces to develop the world’s first impact bond for coral reef conservation. The proposed Indonesia Coral Bond is designed to deliver independently verified conservation and biodiversity outcomes in some of the most biodiverse coral reef ecosystems on the planet. The proposed bond leverages an existing US$210 million World Bank operation (the Oceans for Prosperity Project) supporting the Government of Indonesia to increase management effectiveness in marine protected areas
  • Publication
    Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, May 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-05-16) World Bank
    The economy slowed more than expected due to sluggish external demand and delayed budget approval. Expanding private consumption and tourism continued to drive services growth, albeit at a slower pace. Inflation increased due to the removal of energy subsidies and elevated food prices but remained the lowest among emerging markets. The delayed budget approval led to minimal public spending in Q1. However, the recent enactment of the FY24 budget and the upcoming rollout of the Digital Wallet cash transfer in Q4 buoyed the near-term growth outlook. Despite a current account surplus, the Thai baht depreciated in April due to a delay to the Fed’s easing cycle and concerns over the Thai economy and the fiscal implications of the Digital Wallet.
  • Publication
    Viet Nam Macro Monitoring
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-03) World Bank
    Industrial production in Viet Nam decreased due to the Tet holiday in February 2024. The subdued domestic consumption and private investment warrants close monitoring. In contrast, recent high frequency data suggests strong upside risks to growth in advanced economies, especially US which could in turn induce a stronger recovery in Viet Nam. The government could further accelerate the implementation of its public investment program to support aggregate demand. Addressing banking sector vulnerabilities, including strengthening prudential supervision, early interventions and bank resolution and crisis management, would help put the banks on a stronger footing for recovery.