Miscellaneous Knowledge Notes

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Topic: Macroeconomics and Economic Growth × Topic: Private Sector Development × Subject: INFLATION × Author: World Bank × Item Type: Publication ×

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    Publication
    Vietnam Macro Monitoring
    (World Bank, 2022-12) World Bank
    This brief discusses the economic development of Vietnam for the month of December 2022.The two drivers of economic growth, exports and domestic demand, are moderating. Softer external demand has weighed on Vietnam’s exports. The post-covid consumption rebound also appears to be fading and tighter domestic financial conditions and rising inflation could affect domestic demand going forward. Reflecting weaker external demand, growth of industrial production moderated to 5.3 percent (y/y) in November, the lowest rate since February 2022. CPI inflation reached 4.4 percent (y/y) in November, compared to 4.3 percent recorded a month earlier, with food and housing being two major contributors. Credit growth fell from 16.5 percent (y/y) in October to 15.0 percent (y/y) in November as domestic financial conditions tightened after the State Bank of Vietnam raised key policy interest rates in September and October. The Vietnamese dong gained slightly in value in November 2022 although the dong’s appreciation is one of the smallest compared to major currencies and currencies of its neighbors. As of end November, the national budget registered a 12.1 billion surplus (about 3 percent of GDP). With global financing conditions expected to remain tight and weakening external demand, Vietnamese monetary authorities could consider allowing further flexibility in the exchange rate to absorb changes in the external environment. Fiscal and monetary policy coordination will be critical to ensure price stability in light of accelerating domestic core inflation. A more prudent and prioritized expenditure strategy could focus on ensuring investments in human capital and resilient and green infrastructure to help bolster economic potential and resilience.
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    Publication
    Results from Myanmar Firm Monitoring: Round 13 Detailed Note
    (Washington, DC, 2022-09) World Bank
    On average, firms operated at 58 percent of their capacity in September 2022 - the lowest since December 2021. Almost half of all firms reported that volatility of the kyat was their most pressing concern, and 75 percent of all firms reported negative impacts of the kyat depreciation against the US dollar. In the three months to September 2022, 63 percent of firms raised prices, resulting in a 22 percent average increase in output prices over that period. Only 66 percent of firms were confident in remaining open for the next month - the lowest since December 2021.