Miscellaneous Knowledge Notes

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Vietnam Macro Monitoring, January 2025
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-02-04) World Bank
Industrial production increased in December 2024. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) increased from 1.6 percent (m/m, SA) in November to 2.1 percent (m/m, SA) in December 2024, as businesses ramped up production to meet year-end consumer demand. The improvement is due to the increased production of key export products such as textiles, footwear, furniture, electronics, and electrical equipment. Manufacturing production for domestic consumption such as food and beverages also expanded. However, in terms of prospects, Viet Nam’s PMI was down from 50.8 in November to 49.8 in December, entering contractionary territory, as new orders growth slowed, while firms scaled back employment and inventories.
Vietnam Macro Monitoring, December 2024
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-13) World Bank
Industrial production improved in November 2024, driven by an increased production of key export and manufactured products. While staying in expansionary territory, Vietnam’s PMI inched down slightly from 51.2 in October to 50.8 in November as the growth of new orders softened. Exports and imports growth continued to slow, driven by a contraction of tech exports (phones and equipment) and a small deceleration of non-tech exports (including footwear and textiles) due to weaker global demand and lingering supply chain disruptions caused by typhoon Yagi. Year-on-year export growth moderated from 10.2 percent y/y in October to 8.2 percent y/y in November. Mirroring the moderation of export growth, import growth decelerated from 13.6 percent y/y in October to 9.8 percent y/y in November. The trade balance registered a small surplus of 1.1 billion US dollars in November 2024 and totaled US 23.8 billion dollars in the first 11 months of 2024. Revenue collection during the first 11 months of 2024 was 16.1 percent higher than during 2023 due to improved economic activities. Revenue collection reached 106.1 percent of what had been planned for 2024. The public investment disbursement rate accelerated from 52.3 percent of the Prime Minister’s approved budget allocation in October 2024 to 73.5 percent in November 2024. However, it remained slightly below the 76.5 percent disbursement rate from the same period of last year.
Vietnam Macro Monitoring, October 2024
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-23) World Bank
Gross domestic products (GDP) growth registered 7.4 percent (y/y) in Q3-2024 at Viet Nam, its highest in two years, driven by non-tech exports and the ongoing domestic demand recovery. Typhoon Yagi hit northern Viet Nam in September, leading to significant economic damages of US 3.2 billion (0.7 percent of GDP). Agricultural production was the hardest-hit sector, accounting for 38 percent of the total economic losses. FDI investments expanded robustly, totaling US$ 24.6 billion in the last 12 months, an 8.3 percent increase compared to a year earlier. Inflation continued to moderate, registering 2.6 percent (y/y) in September 2024, from 3.5 percent in August 2024, as transport prices declined, food inflation remained stable and core inflation decelerated to 2.5 percent (y/y). Slow budget disbursement continues to remain a concern, with 59.3 percent of the public expenditure plan disbursed in the first nine months of 2024 (slightly below the disbursement rate of 59.7 percent at the same period last year), including 47.3 percent of public investments executed.
Vietnam Macro Monitoring, May 2024
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-09) World Bank
Industrial production showed a significant increase, with the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growing by 2.6 percent month-on-month (m/m) and 8.9 percent year-on-year (y/y), attributed to improved exports, particularly in manufacturing sectors. Retail sales experienced a modest recovery, growth rate indicated that consumer demand remains relatively weak. Both exports and imports experienced a surge, with exports and imports growing. The y/y growth rates were also substantial, suggesting increased demand from trade partners. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) commitments and disbursements were solid, with the majority of FDI flowing into manufacturing and real estate sectors. Inflation rates remained stable, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation at 4.4 percent y/y and core inflation slightly moderating. The Vietnamese Dong (VND) continued to face depreciation pressure against the US Dollar (USD), and the interbank interest rates reflected a tightening of liquidity by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). Public revenue collection improved, but public expenditures and investment disbursements showed a slower pace. The government and SBV proposed measures to support the economy, including extending VAT reduction, reducing lending interest rates, and advancing the implementation of revised real estate laws. The report also notes that while there is a recovery in external demand, domestic demand and consumption show mixed signs. The authorities' measures aim to support the economy, but there are concerns about the impact of a strong US dollar and interest rate reductions on the exchange rate. The recommendation is to continue supporting aggregate demand through capital expenditures.
Viet Nam Macro Monitoring
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-03) World Bank
Industrial production in Viet Nam decreased due to the Tet holiday in February 2024. The subdued domestic consumption and private investment warrants close monitoring. In contrast, recent high frequency data suggests strong upside risks to growth in advanced economies, especially US which could in turn induce a stronger recovery in Viet Nam. The government could further accelerate the implementation of its public investment program to support aggregate demand. Addressing banking sector vulnerabilities, including strengthening prudential supervision, early interventions and bank resolution and crisis management, would help put the banks on a stronger footing for recovery.
Vietnam Macro Monitoring, September 2023
(Washington, DC, 2023-10-31) World Bank
This brief discusses the economic development of Vietnam for September 2023. While economic growth picked up in Q3-2023 thanks to a gradual recovery of the exports, domestic consumption remained subdued and credit growth continued to be slow reflecting weak private domestic investment and investors’ confidence. A sharp upward trend in headline inflation continues to warrant close watch. Continued efforts to implement public investment could support aggregate demand and economic growth in the short run. A strategic and well-prepared investment pipeline for 2024 and the next Medium-Term Investment Plan (MTIP) with a focus on green, resilient, and regional infrastructure will help bolster long term economic development. Further improving the business environment and stepping up investment in human capital would help the country: attract high-tech and high-value-addition FDI and boost productivity in the long run.
Vietnam Macro Monitoring, August 2023
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-09-27) World Bank
This brief discusses the economic development of Vietnam for August 2023. While the export slump may have bottomed out, and domestic consumption remained resilient, credit growth continued to be slow, reflecting weak private domestic investment and investors’ confidence. Recent upward movements in global energy prices warrants close monitoring of CPI inflation. This may also prevent SBV from loosening monetary policy further. The continuation of tight global financial conditions warrants flexible FX management to accommodate external conditions. Further acceleration of public investment disbursement could support aggregate demand and economic growth in the short run while focusing on priority green and resilient infrastructure and human capital investments will help bolster long term economic development.
Vietnam Macro Monitoring, December 2022
(World Bank, 2022-12) World Bank
This brief discusses the economic development of Vietnam for the month of December 2022.The two drivers of economic growth, exports and domestic demand, are moderating. Softer external demand has weighed on Vietnam’s exports. The post-covid consumption rebound also appears to be fading and tighter domestic financial conditions and rising inflation could affect domestic demand going forward. Reflecting weaker external demand, growth of industrial production moderated to 5.3 percent (y/y) in November, the lowest rate since February 2022. CPI inflation reached 4.4 percent (y/y) in November, compared to 4.3 percent recorded a month earlier, with food and housing being two major contributors. Credit growth fell from 16.5 percent (y/y) in October to 15.0 percent (y/y) in November as domestic financial conditions tightened after the State Bank of Vietnam raised key policy interest rates in September and October. The Vietnamese dong gained slightly in value in November 2022 although the dong’s appreciation is one of the smallest compared to major currencies and currencies of its neighbors. As of end November, the national budget registered a 12.1 billion surplus (about 3 percent of GDP). With global financing conditions expected to remain tight and weakening external demand, Vietnamese monetary authorities could consider allowing further flexibility in the exchange rate to absorb changes in the external environment. Fiscal and monetary policy coordination will be critical to ensure price stability in light of accelerating domestic core inflation. A more prudent and prioritized expenditure strategy could focus on ensuring investments in human capital and resilient and green infrastructure to help bolster economic potential and resilience.
Vietnam Macro Monitoring, November 2022
(Washington, DC, 2022-11) World Bank
This brief focuses on the economic development in Vietnam as of November 2022. Industrial production and retail sales moderated in October as both domestic and external demand slowed. Exports growth slowed to a 12-month low of 4.8 percent (y/y) as external demand weakened amid high inflation, tightening global financial conditions, and heightened global uncertainties. FDI commitment bounced back strongly thanks to a jump in greenfield investment in electricity, gas, and water supply while FDI disbursement maintained a robust growth. Despite falling fuel prices, CPI inflation increased from 3.9 percent (y/y) in September to 4.3 percent (y/y) in October, driven by faster rise in food prices, which account for 21.3 percent of the CPI basket. The economy faces strong headwinds. Slowing external demand and tightening global financial conditions are affecting the exchange rate. Rising inflation and tightening domestic financial conditions could affect domestic demand in the coming months. As US Fed is expected to continue raising interest rates, Vietnamese monetary authorities could consider allowing further flexibility in the exchange rate, including through a quicker pace of depreciation of the reference rate. This could be complemented with continued use of reference interest rates, especially if faster depreciation leads to higher inflation and inflation expectations rise. Given the persistence of exchange rate pressures, direct FX sales should be used judiciously to preserve the FX reserves. Fiscal and monetary policy coordination will be critical to ensure price stability in light of accelerating domestic core inflation. Moreover, recent banking sector volatility calls for increased vigilance and intensified supervision efforts.
Vietnam Macro Monitoring, October 2022
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-10) World Bank
This brief focuses on the economic development in Vietnam as of October 2022. Vietnam’s economy registered a strong growth of 13.7 percent (y/y) in Q3-2022 and 8.9 percent (y/y), mostly reflecting a low base effect. Industrial production and retail sales posted another month of high growth rates (13.0 percent (y/y) and 36.1 percent (y/y)), which could be attributed both to strong economic activities and to the low-base effects. Both exports and imports growth moderated in September 2022 due to weakening demand from major export markets. FDI commitment fell in September affected by the heighted uncertainty about the global economic prospects while FDI disbursement continued to improve. While the economic recovery has remained strong, heightened uncertainties related to the slowing global economy, rising domestic inflation, and tightening global financial conditions warrant increased vigilance and policy agility. Given the economy has not fully recovered and growth in main export markets is expected to slow, continued active fiscal policy to support the economy should be closely aligned with economic outcomes and coordinated with monetary policy. At the same time, as CPI and Core CPI are reaching 4 percent, the policy rate set by the authorities, monetary authorities should be ready to considerfurther tightening of monetary policy to ensure inflation remains anchored. Given the end of forbearance and tightening financial conditions, the financial sector faces heightened risks and prompt SBV guidance would help stem materialization of such risks at the sector level, potentially affecting the real economy. The recent turmoil around the Saigon Commercial Bank (SCB) case highlights the need for increased transparency through timely publication of detailed information about the banking sector performance, an enhanced corporate governance, a strengthened risk-based supervision, including supervision of business groups and related party lending and early intervention, and an enhanced bank resolution framework.