Miscellaneous Knowledge Notes
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Publication
High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) - Phase 2: Sampling Design, Weighting, and Estimation
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-12)After implementing Phase 1 of the High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) project in Latin America and The Caribbean (LAC) in 2020, the World Bank conducted Phase 2 in 2021 to continue to assess the socio-economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on households. This new phase, conducted in partnership with the UNDP LAC Chief Economist office, included two waves. Wave 1 covered 24 countries and Wave 2 covered 22 countries. Of these countries, 13 participated in Phase 1 and the rest joined in Phase 2. This document describes the sampling design, weighting and the right procedure to estimate indicators for the LAC HFPS Phase 2 surveys. -
Publication
The Road Not Taken?: Responding to the Energy Price Shock in East Asia
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11-17)Several countries in East Asia have increased fossil fuel subsidies to keep consumer prices lower than currently high international prices. These subsidies are discouraging the shift in consumption away from fossil fuels, while high prices are encouraging investment in new fossil fuel infrastructure. Providing income transfers instead of price subsidies would encourage consumption of cleaner alternatives, while softening the welfare loss. And subsidizing investment in renewables would avert the risk of being locked in to fossil fuels. The total cost need not be higher than that of fossil fuel subsidies. -
Publication
Vietnam Macro Monitoring, October 2022
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-10)This brief focuses on the economic development in Vietnam as of October 2022. Vietnam’s economy registered a strong growth of 13.7 percent (y/y) in Q3-2022 and 8.9 percent (y/y), mostly reflecting a low base effect. Industrial production and retail sales posted another month of high growth rates (13.0 percent (y/y) and 36.1 percent (y/y)), which could be attributed both to strong economic activities and to the low-base effects. Both exports and imports growth moderated in September 2022 due to weakening demand from major export markets. FDI commitment fell in September affected by the heighted uncertainty about the global economic prospects while FDI disbursement continued to improve. While the economic recovery has remained strong, heightened uncertainties related to the slowing global economy, rising domestic inflation, and tightening global financial conditions warrant increased vigilance and policy agility. Given the economy has not fully recovered and growth in main export markets is expected to slow, continued active fiscal policy to support the economy should be closely aligned with economic outcomes and coordinated with monetary policy. At the same time, as CPI and Core CPI are reaching 4 percent, the policy rate set by the authorities, monetary authorities should be ready to considerfurther tightening of monetary policy to ensure inflation remains anchored. Given the end of forbearance and tightening financial conditions, the financial sector faces heightened risks and prompt SBV guidance would help stem materialization of such risks at the sector level, potentially affecting the real economy. The recent turmoil around the Saigon Commercial Bank (SCB) case highlights the need for increased transparency through timely publication of detailed information about the banking sector performance, an enhanced corporate governance, a strengthened risk-based supervision, including supervision of business groups and related party lending and early intervention, and an enhanced bank resolution framework. -
Publication
Gender Wage Gap in Thailand
(Washington, DC, 2022-09)The gender wage gap in Thailand is much less significant than in most countries in the world. The average hourly wage among female workers, in fact, slightly surpasses that of males. This highly equitable gender wage pattern is seen at all levels of the wage distribution. Female representation is also quite equal at all levels of wages; the likelihood of finding females in low-wage jobs is as high as in high-wage jobs. One important factor driving this gender wage parity is the higher educational attainment among female workers. -
Publication
Brazil – COVID-19 in Latin America and Caribbean: 2021 High Frequency Phone Surveys - Results Phase Two, Wave One
(Washington, DC, 2022-04)Brazil has been one of the countries most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in the region. In June 2021, it was the country with the second-highest rate of deaths per million and the fourth by the number of cases per million in Latin America and the Caribbean. The effects of the health crisis were broad and still evident a year and a half into the pandemic. In line with pre-existing vulnerability profiles, the pandemic affected the Brazilian population differently in the labor market. At the time of the survey, the proportion of people who lost their pre-pandemic job and were not working was 29.1 percent. This proportion was highest among the elderly (57.8 percent), those with primary education or less (42.7 percent), women (41.4 percent) and rural workers (38.7 percent). About 58 percent of those who lost their jobs became inactive, and most of the new inactive were women (68.9 percent). Simultaneously, 29.2 percent of the previously inactive entered the labor force during the pandemic, though one-quarter of them were unemployed in mid-2021. Women represented a majority among the new active (64.3 percent). Finally, the pandemic resulted in higher informality rates among those who remained employed. -
Publication
Social Protection and Jobs Responses to COVID-19: A Real-Time Review of Country Measures
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-02-07)As of January 2022, a total of 3,856 social protection and labor measures were planned or implemented by 223 economies. This constitutes a net increase of 523 measures, or 15.6 percent since the last update in May 2021. While noteworthy, such increase is the lowest among net additions observed over previous semesters. In fact, the global pace of measures’ introduction over January 2020-January 2022 has been slowing down. This report focuses on the real-time review of country measures in terms of social protection and job responses to Coronavirus (COVID-19). -
Publication
COVID-19 Impact Monitoring: Malawi, Round 11
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-07)The COVID-19 pandemic has socio-economic impacts on Malawians and there is need for timely data to monitor these impacts and support response efforts to the pandemic. In May 2020, the National Statistical Office (NSO), with support from the World Bank, launched the High Frequency Phone Survey on COVID-19; a monthly survey of a nationally representative sample of households previously interviewed as part of the Malawi Integrated Household Panel Survey to monitor the economic impact of the pandemic and other shocks. This brief presents the findings from the tenth and eleventh rounds of the Malawi High-Frequency Phone Sur-vey on COVID-19 (HFPS COVID-19) conducted between the 29th of April and the 9th of June 2021. -
Publication
Modeling the Revenue and Distributional Effects of Tax Reform in Paraguay: Challenges and Lessons
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06)In 2019, the Government of Paraguay (GOP) embarked on a comprehensive tax reform to simplify and modernize its tax system. At the request of the Ministry of Finance (MOF), and building on long-standing policy dialogue with the country, the World Bank (WB) Poverty team worked quickly to develop a micro-simulation tool to inform policymakers on the potential revenue and distributional effects of the reform as it was being developed. In this note, we summarize the context, approach, challenges, and lessons learned from constructing the Fiscal Simulation Tool and highlight the tool’s long-term value for policy dialogue and decision making. -
Publication
Monitoring Impacts on Households in Lao PDR, Report No. 3, April-May 2021: Results Snapshot from a Rapid Monitoring Phone Survey (Round 3)
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06)As infections spiked across Southeast Asia, the number of confirmed cases in Lao PDR surged from fewer than 50 cases in early April to over 6,000 cases in August 2021. The government of Lao PDR announced a 14-day lockdown on April 22, 2021, which has since been extended several times. International borders remain closed. The measures have caused disruption to businesses and a reduction in working hours and labor earnings. The second Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak has setback economic recovery and much uncertainty remains. To monitor the social and economic impacts of the pandemic, the World Bank is conducting a series of Coronavirus (COVID-19) rapid monitoring phone surveys of households in Lao PDR. This monitoring data helps provide insights Into t e effects of the pandemic on household well-being. The third-round survey was conducted from April 26 to May 30, 2021 during a second lockdown. This note provides a snapshot of results from the third-round survey. -
Publication
Monitoring COVID-19 Impacts on Households in Lao PDR, Report No. 2: Results Snapshot from a Rapid Monitoring Phone Survey (Round 2)
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-05)The first-round survey was conducted from June 20 to July 16, 2020, when Lao PDR had just exited the nationwide lockdown. The second-round survey was conducted from February 26 to March 24, 2021, one year into the pandemic. This note provides a snapshot of results from the second-round survey. More survey results on public service delivery and citizen’s expectations from the government in response to COVID-19 are available in a separate note.