Miscellaneous Knowledge Notes
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Publication
Public Services and COVID-19 - Reflections from the Pacific: Sustainable Wage Bills
(Washington, DC, 2022-12)The purpose of this note is to identify good practice in public sector management drawn from Pacific Island public service experiences of navigating the COVID-19 pandemic. These experiences were brought together through a World Bank engagement with Pacific Island countries in 2021 and 2022. The engagement identified five core aspects of Pacific Island public service management in response to COVID-19: trust, preparation, adaptable system settings, adaptable operating models, and sustainable wage bills. This first note in the series of five focuses on the importance of trust. The primary audience is public service leaders in Pacific Islands. The note will also be of interest to anyone working on designing and leading public sector management systems through rapid change, uncertainty and crises. -
Publication
High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) - Phase 2: Sampling Design, Weighting, and Estimation
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-12)After implementing Phase 1 of the High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) project in Latin America and The Caribbean (LAC) in 2020, the World Bank conducted Phase 2 in 2021 to continue to assess the socio-economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on households. This new phase, conducted in partnership with the UNDP LAC Chief Economist office, included two waves. Wave 1 covered 24 countries and Wave 2 covered 22 countries. Of these countries, 13 participated in Phase 1 and the rest joined in Phase 2. This document describes the sampling design, weighting and the right procedure to estimate indicators for the LAC HFPS Phase 2 surveys. -
Publication
Philippines Monthly Economic Developments: September 2022
(Washington, DC, 2022-09)Headline inflation marginally eased in August following five consecutive months of increases. However, core inflation rose further, which is indicative of underlying price pressure and strong domestic demand. The strong demand contributed to a double-digit growth in imports, and the decline in the unemployment rate to its lowest level since the start of the pandemic. Factory outputs grew modestly and goods exports contracted in July. As Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and hospital bed occupancy rate are manageable, the authorities lifted the mask requirement for outdoor activities. -
Publication
Firms’ Recovery from COVID-19 in Malaysia: Results from the 5th Round of COVID-19 Business Pulse Survey
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-08)The survey implemented in August 2022 shows that economic recovery is taking root in Malaysia as evidenced by the trends in operating hours, sales, and employment. The outlook of firms is positive and with more than 38 percent of firms relative to 34 percent of firms in R4 business pulse survey (BPS) expecting higher sales for Q4 2022. With international borders being opened, firms’ recovery has accelerated across regions and firm sizes. However, this brings about new challenges for firms such as shortages of labor, rising input costs, and increasing market competition. -
Publication
Navigating Multiple Crises, Staying the Course on Long-term Development: The World Bank Group’s Response to the Crises Affecting Developing Countries
(Washington, DC, 2022-07)The world is facing a perfect storm that has the potential to undo decades of development gains. Two years into a major worldwide pandemic, the global impact of the war in Ukraine is hitting countries that were already stressed. Fiscal space has been eroded in many developing countries by rising borrowing costs, and a decade of rising debt capped by a further surge, severely exacerbated by the pandemic. Rising inflation and weakening economic recovery are contributing to growing macroeconomic imbalances, exacerbating already high risks of debt distress and leaving many households vulnerable. In April 2022, the World Bank Group (WBG) outlined a “Roadmap” to indicate how it would support clients as they respond to the impacts of these ongoing, multiple, overlapping, and compounding crises. This follow-up paper details the WBG’s crisis response and proposes a framework tailored to the current situation. This paper is organized as follows. Section II describes the multiple crises facing countries today. Section III proposes a framework for the WBG response to the global crisis. Section IV and V describe key considerations for the operational approach to the crisis response and detail the financing envelope. Section VI underscores the need for global coordination to maximize the impact of this crisis response. Section VII concludes with key issues. -
Publication
COVID-19 in Papua New Guinea: Economic and Social Impacts - Insights from the Fifth Round of High Frequency Phone Surveys
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-05-31)The fifth round of the high frequency phone survey (HFPS) interviewed 2,630 households in June 2022 on the socioeconomic impacts of COVID-19, including employment and income, community trust and security and COVID-19 vaccination. It follows four rounds of surveys conducted from June 2020 to December 2021. The previous round of the HFPS (round 4), found that recovery was weak in 2021, with household incomes falling, and highlighted persistently low COVID-19 vaccination rates. While the third wave of COVID-19 was over by June 2022, PNG remains the least vaccinated country in the EAP region and could be vulnerable to future outbreaks of COVID-19. The World Bank estimates that the PNG economy contracted by 3.5 percent in 2020 before returning to positive economic growth of 1 percent in 2021. Stronger economic growth is projected for 2022, of 4 percent. In particular, strong growth is projected for the extractive sector (6.8 percent). However, the trajectory of economic recovery remains highly uncertain. -
Publication
COVID-19 in South Asia: An Unequal Shock, An Uncertain Recovery - Findings on Labor Market Impacts from Round 1 of the SAR COVID Phone Monitoring Surveys
(Washington, DC, 2022-04)All countries across South Asia, faced with the rising risks of COVID-19 infection rates, implemented severe economic lockdowns in early 2020 with varying frequencies and time periods. While the exact nature and duration of these lockdowns varied across countries in the South Asia Region (SAR), almost all SAR countries imposed their first economic lockdown in late March 2020 in response to the growing health threat of COVID-19 infections. In India, for instance, the national lockdown was first introduced in late March 2020, which coincided with the imposition of similar lockdowns in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, followed by a national lockdown in Pakistan on April 1, 2020. By April 17, 2020, the population of all SAR countries was under severe lockdown with varying rules and conditions based on national or local directives. The introduction of these lockdowns led to a drastic, abrupt disruption in all forms of physical mobility and economic activities. Trends from the Google COVID-19 Community Mobility data reveal this sharp drop in day-to-day mobility related to four different types of economic activity across 6 out of 8 SAR countries for which this data was available. Figure 1 plots the daily change in the Google Mobility index, which is constructed by taking an equally weighted mean across the four dimensions of economic activity for the five weeks before March 2020. In the six SAR countries, the average mobility remained approximately, on average, 58 percent below their respective pre-COVID levels during the first week of the lockdown. For example, in Nepal, where the lockdown was first introduced on March 24, 2020, mobility (as measured by the Google Mobility index) was 66 percent below pre-COVID levels on the first day of the lockdown; and it remained, on average, 71.5 percent below per-COVID levels between March 24, 2020, and March 30, 2020. We observe a similar pattern of immediate and large disruptions in mobility in all SAR countries, except in Afghanistan (22.5 percent below pre-COVID levels), where restrictions were more localized. The Google Mobility index closely follows these changes in rules and conditions in SAR countries, which varied over time within each country as well as across countries. In countries like Nepal, India, and Sri Lanka, with an extended period of restrictions imposed through national or local directives at different points in time, mobility had not returned to pre-COVID levels even as late as April 2021. In Nepal and Sri Lanka, where the second lockdown was introduced in August and November 2020, respectively, we observe a sharp drop again in mobility after a gradual recovery following the easing of the first lockdown. In other SAR countries like Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, mobility only returned to pre-COVID levels between September and October 2020. These results underscore the dramatic and prolonged impact that COVID-19 induced lockdowns have had on mobility and economic activity, which is perhaps unprecedented in the region, at least in recent history4. These lockdowns are likely to have important implications on various socio-economic dimensions of welfare, including labor market outcomes, both immediately and in the medium, to long-term. More importantly, the long-term impacts will also be determined by the nature and the pace of recovery observed in these countries in the months and years after the initial phase of lockdown. Moreover, the emergence of new mutants leaves open the possibility of future lockdowns as a policy response to mitigate the health effects of the virus, which could impact economic activity and reverse observed recoveries. -
Publication
Firms’ Recovery from COVID-19 in Malaysia: Results from the 4th Round of COVID-19 Business Pulse Survey
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-02-28)The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) business pulse survey (BPS) is a rapid survey designed to measure the various channels of impact of COVID-19 on firms, firm adjustment strategies, and public policy responses. The World Bank, in collaboration with a private survey company, conducted the 4th round of the Malaysia BPS in February to March 2022, following the 1st round in October 2020, 2nd round in Mid-January to February 2021, and 3rd round in July 2021. Firms were sampled randomly from an online business panel database, which consists of 100,000+ companies in all sectors and sizes, across Peninsular and East Malaysia. A minimum sample size was obtained for sectors that are important to Malaysia’s economy and are sensitive to the COVID-19 crisis (export-oriented activities: electronics, automotive, tourism related activities) while preserving the sectoral shares in the sampling frame. The survey was conducted online and yielded 1,500 responses from respondents in senior management positions at their company (i.e. owners, C-suite or Director level). -
Publication
Opportunities to maximize the effectiveness of food and tobacco tax to help address Samoa NCD crisis
(Washington, DC, 2022)Samoa is one of the first countries in the Pacific to introduce taxation measures to address Noncommunicable Diseases (NCDs). The predicted probability of dying from NCDs between the ages of 30 and 70 years is more than double in Samoa compared to high-income nations in the Pacific region. Over several years, the Government of Samoa has imposed excise taxes on several products including cigarettes, alcohol, and sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs). There are plans to expand excise taxes to unhealthy products in 2023. This includes raising excise taxes on tobacco and SSBs and introducing import duty and/or excise taxes on imported high fat cuts of lamb, syrups, confectionery, biscuits, ice cream, and french fries. Simultaneously, there are plans to reduce and/or waive import duty on selected vegetables, fresh chicken, and bottled water. Therefore, in 2020, a nationally representative survey was conducted to generate baseline data to inform future tax measures. -
Publication
Gender and Aging in the Bangkok Metropolitan Area
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022)The purpose of this study is to assess the differences between older men and women (aged sixty and above) residing in the Bangkok Metropolitan Area in order to better understand gender disparities and inform policies and programs for the aged. An analysis of the demographic attributes of older persons in the Bangkok Metropolitan Area (BMA) revealed that over 50 percent of the older population are "young-old" (between 60-69 years old), while approximately 12 percent are "oldest-old" (80 years old or more). There is a higher percentage of older women in the oldest-old group, likely due to the fact that women have a longer lifespan than men. This imbalance is a cause for concern as older women have a higher probability of being dependent, both financially and health-wise.