Miscellaneous Knowledge Notes
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Publication
High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) - Phase 2: Sampling Design, Weighting, and Estimation
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-12)After implementing Phase 1 of the High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) project in Latin America and The Caribbean (LAC) in 2020, the World Bank conducted Phase 2 in 2021 to continue to assess the socio-economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on households. This new phase, conducted in partnership with the UNDP LAC Chief Economist office, included two waves. Wave 1 covered 24 countries and Wave 2 covered 22 countries. Of these countries, 13 participated in Phase 1 and the rest joined in Phase 2. This document describes the sampling design, weighting and the right procedure to estimate indicators for the LAC HFPS Phase 2 surveys. -
Publication
Philippines Monthly Economic Developments: September 2022
(Washington, DC, 2022-09)Headline inflation marginally eased in August following five consecutive months of increases. However, core inflation rose further, which is indicative of underlying price pressure and strong domestic demand. The strong demand contributed to a double-digit growth in imports, and the decline in the unemployment rate to its lowest level since the start of the pandemic. Factory outputs grew modestly and goods exports contracted in July. As Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and hospital bed occupancy rate are manageable, the authorities lifted the mask requirement for outdoor activities. -
Publication
Firms’ Recovery from COVID-19 in Malaysia: Results from the 5th Round of COVID-19 Business Pulse Survey
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-08)The survey implemented in August 2022 shows that economic recovery is taking root in Malaysia as evidenced by the trends in operating hours, sales, and employment. The outlook of firms is positive and with more than 38 percent of firms relative to 34 percent of firms in R4 business pulse survey (BPS) expecting higher sales for Q4 2022. With international borders being opened, firms’ recovery has accelerated across regions and firm sizes. However, this brings about new challenges for firms such as shortages of labor, rising input costs, and increasing market competition. -
Publication
Navigating Multiple Crises, Staying the Course on Long-term Development: The World Bank Group’s Response to the Crises Affecting Developing Countries
(Washington, DC, 2022-07)The world is facing a perfect storm that has the potential to undo decades of development gains. Two years into a major worldwide pandemic, the global impact of the war in Ukraine is hitting countries that were already stressed. Fiscal space has been eroded in many developing countries by rising borrowing costs, and a decade of rising debt capped by a further surge, severely exacerbated by the pandemic. Rising inflation and weakening economic recovery are contributing to growing macroeconomic imbalances, exacerbating already high risks of debt distress and leaving many households vulnerable. In April 2022, the World Bank Group (WBG) outlined a “Roadmap” to indicate how it would support clients as they respond to the impacts of these ongoing, multiple, overlapping, and compounding crises. This follow-up paper details the WBG’s crisis response and proposes a framework tailored to the current situation. This paper is organized as follows. Section II describes the multiple crises facing countries today. Section III proposes a framework for the WBG response to the global crisis. Section IV and V describe key considerations for the operational approach to the crisis response and detail the financing envelope. Section VI underscores the need for global coordination to maximize the impact of this crisis response. Section VII concludes with key issues. -
Publication
COVID-19 in Papua New Guinea: Economic and Social Impacts - Insights from the Fifth Round of High Frequency Phone Surveys
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-05-31)The fifth round of the high frequency phone survey (HFPS) interviewed 2,630 households in June 2022 on the socioeconomic impacts of COVID-19, including employment and income, community trust and security and COVID-19 vaccination. It follows four rounds of surveys conducted from June 2020 to December 2021. The previous round of the HFPS (round 4), found that recovery was weak in 2021, with household incomes falling, and highlighted persistently low COVID-19 vaccination rates. While the third wave of COVID-19 was over by June 2022, PNG remains the least vaccinated country in the EAP region and could be vulnerable to future outbreaks of COVID-19. The World Bank estimates that the PNG economy contracted by 3.5 percent in 2020 before returning to positive economic growth of 1 percent in 2021. Stronger economic growth is projected for 2022, of 4 percent. In particular, strong growth is projected for the extractive sector (6.8 percent). However, the trajectory of economic recovery remains highly uncertain. -
Publication
Firms’ Recovery from COVID-19 in Malaysia: Results from the 4th Round of COVID-19 Business Pulse Survey
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-02-28)The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) business pulse survey (BPS) is a rapid survey designed to measure the various channels of impact of COVID-19 on firms, firm adjustment strategies, and public policy responses. The World Bank, in collaboration with a private survey company, conducted the 4th round of the Malaysia BPS in February to March 2022, following the 1st round in October 2020, 2nd round in Mid-January to February 2021, and 3rd round in July 2021. Firms were sampled randomly from an online business panel database, which consists of 100,000+ companies in all sectors and sizes, across Peninsular and East Malaysia. A minimum sample size was obtained for sectors that are important to Malaysia’s economy and are sensitive to the COVID-19 crisis (export-oriented activities: electronics, automotive, tourism related activities) while preserving the sectoral shares in the sampling frame. The survey was conducted online and yielded 1,500 responses from respondents in senior management positions at their company (i.e. owners, C-suite or Director level). -
Publication
Opportunities to maximize the effectiveness of food and tobacco tax to help address Samoa NCD crisis
(Washington, DC, 2022)Samoa is one of the first countries in the Pacific to introduce taxation measures to address Noncommunicable Diseases (NCDs). The predicted probability of dying from NCDs between the ages of 30 and 70 years is more than double in Samoa compared to high-income nations in the Pacific region. Over several years, the Government of Samoa has imposed excise taxes on several products including cigarettes, alcohol, and sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs). There are plans to expand excise taxes to unhealthy products in 2023. This includes raising excise taxes on tobacco and SSBs and introducing import duty and/or excise taxes on imported high fat cuts of lamb, syrups, confectionery, biscuits, ice cream, and french fries. Simultaneously, there are plans to reduce and/or waive import duty on selected vegetables, fresh chicken, and bottled water. Therefore, in 2020, a nationally representative survey was conducted to generate baseline data to inform future tax measures. -
Publication
Female-Owned Firms during the COVID-19 Crisis
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-07-29)This brief use firm-level data collected between May 2020 and May 2021 in 41 countries, to provide descriptive evidence on the differential effect of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis on female- and male-owned firms. Data suggest that while female-owned and male-owned businesses closed permanently at the same rates, female-owned firms were more likely to have temporarily closed during the crisis and to have closed for a longer duration. When able to stay in business, female-owned firms were more likely to experience a decrease in demand for their products or services and supply of intermediate inputs than male-owned firms. They also reduced the size of their workforce more than their male counterparts and were more likely to reduce hours worked. Finally, female-owned firms suffered deeper financial distress than male-owned firms. Nevertheless, female and male-owned firms show similar optimism of returning to normal levels of sales or workforce in the near future. -
Publication
COVID-19 Impact Monitoring: Malawi, Round 11
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-07)The COVID-19 pandemic has socio-economic impacts on Malawians and there is need for timely data to monitor these impacts and support response efforts to the pandemic. In May 2020, the National Statistical Office (NSO), with support from the World Bank, launched the High Frequency Phone Survey on COVID-19; a monthly survey of a nationally representative sample of households previously interviewed as part of the Malawi Integrated Household Panel Survey to monitor the economic impact of the pandemic and other shocks. This brief presents the findings from the tenth and eleventh rounds of the Malawi High-Frequency Phone Sur-vey on COVID-19 (HFPS COVID-19) conducted between the 29th of April and the 9th of June 2021. -
Publication
Impacts of COVID-19 on Firms in Malaysia: Results from the 3rd Round of COVID-19 Business Pulse Survey
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-07)The COVID-19 Business Pulse Survey (BPS) is a rapid survey designed to measure the various channels of impact of COVID-19 on firms, firm adjustment strategies, and public policy responses. The World Bank, in collaboration with a private survey company, conducted the 3rd round of survey in July 2021, following the 1st round in October 2020 and 2nd round of the Malaysia BPS in Mid-January to February 2021. Firms were sampled randomly from an online business panel database, which consists of 100,000+ companies in all sectors and sizes, across Peninsular and East Malaysia. A minimum sample size was obtained for sectors that are important to Malaysia’s economy and are sensitive to the COVID-19 crisis (export-oriented activities: electronics, automotive, tourism related activities) while preserving the sectoral shares in the sampling frame. The survey was conducted online and yielded 1,500 responses from respondents in senior management positions at their company (i.e. owners, C-suite or Director level).