Miscellaneous Knowledge Notes
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Publication
Vietnam Macro Monitoring
(World Bank, 2022-12)This brief discusses the economic development of Vietnam for the month of December 2022.The two drivers of economic growth, exports and domestic demand, are moderating. Softer external demand has weighed on Vietnam’s exports. The post-covid consumption rebound also appears to be fading and tighter domestic financial conditions and rising inflation could affect domestic demand going forward. Reflecting weaker external demand, growth of industrial production moderated to 5.3 percent (y/y) in November, the lowest rate since February 2022. CPI inflation reached 4.4 percent (y/y) in November, compared to 4.3 percent recorded a month earlier, with food and housing being two major contributors. Credit growth fell from 16.5 percent (y/y) in October to 15.0 percent (y/y) in November as domestic financial conditions tightened after the State Bank of Vietnam raised key policy interest rates in September and October. The Vietnamese dong gained slightly in value in November 2022 although the dong’s appreciation is one of the smallest compared to major currencies and currencies of its neighbors. As of end November, the national budget registered a 12.1 billion surplus (about 3 percent of GDP). With global financing conditions expected to remain tight and weakening external demand, Vietnamese monetary authorities could consider allowing further flexibility in the exchange rate to absorb changes in the external environment. Fiscal and monetary policy coordination will be critical to ensure price stability in light of accelerating domestic core inflation. A more prudent and prioritized expenditure strategy could focus on ensuring investments in human capital and resilient and green infrastructure to help bolster economic potential and resilience. -
Publication
Results from Myanmar Firm Monitoring: Round 13 Detailed Note
(Washington, DC, 2022-09)On average, firms operated at 58 percent of their capacity in September 2022 - the lowest since December 2021. Almost half of all firms reported that volatility of the kyat was their most pressing concern, and 75 percent of all firms reported negative impacts of the kyat depreciation against the US dollar. In the three months to September 2022, 63 percent of firms raised prices, resulting in a 22 percent average increase in output prices over that period. Only 66 percent of firms were confident in remaining open for the next month - the lowest since December 2021. -
Publication
COVID-19 in Papua New Guinea: Economic and Social Impacts - Insights from the Fifth Round of High Frequency Phone Surveys
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-05-31)The fifth round of the high frequency phone survey (HFPS) interviewed 2,630 households in June 2022 on the socioeconomic impacts of COVID-19, including employment and income, community trust and security and COVID-19 vaccination. It follows four rounds of surveys conducted from June 2020 to December 2021. The previous round of the HFPS (round 4), found that recovery was weak in 2021, with household incomes falling, and highlighted persistently low COVID-19 vaccination rates. While the third wave of COVID-19 was over by June 2022, PNG remains the least vaccinated country in the EAP region and could be vulnerable to future outbreaks of COVID-19. The World Bank estimates that the PNG economy contracted by 3.5 percent in 2020 before returning to positive economic growth of 1 percent in 2021. Stronger economic growth is projected for 2022, of 4 percent. In particular, strong growth is projected for the extractive sector (6.8 percent). However, the trajectory of economic recovery remains highly uncertain. -
Publication
Impacts of COVID-19 on Firms in Malaysia: Results from the 3rd Round of COVID-19 Business Pulse Survey
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-07)The COVID-19 Business Pulse Survey (BPS) is a rapid survey designed to measure the various channels of impact of COVID-19 on firms, firm adjustment strategies, and public policy responses. The World Bank, in collaboration with a private survey company, conducted the 3rd round of survey in July 2021, following the 1st round in October 2020 and 2nd round of the Malaysia BPS in Mid-January to February 2021. Firms were sampled randomly from an online business panel database, which consists of 100,000+ companies in all sectors and sizes, across Peninsular and East Malaysia. A minimum sample size was obtained for sectors that are important to Malaysia’s economy and are sensitive to the COVID-19 crisis (export-oriented activities: electronics, automotive, tourism related activities) while preserving the sectoral shares in the sampling frame. The survey was conducted online and yielded 1,500 responses from respondents in senior management positions at their company (i.e. owners, C-suite or Director level). -
Publication
Impacts of COVID-19 on Firms in Malaysia: Results from the 2nd Round of COVID-19 Business Pulse Survey
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06-24)The re-imposition of the Conditional Movement Control Order during mid-October 2020 and the upgrade to a stricter lockdown to Movement Control Order in January 2021 has substantially weakened the recovery momentum highlighted in Round 1 of Business Pulse Survey (early October 2020). To adapt to the latest lockdown, the majority of firms responded by remaining partially open in operations. Employment adjustments such as reducing work hours remain the most common method by firms. Supply chain disruptions remain a major problem in the market. Adoption of digital technologies remains the most popular choice for adjustment by firms, with sales and marketing functions topping the list of digital adoption. -
Publication
Entering the 5G Era: Lessons from Korea
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06)In April 2019, the Republic of Korea launched the world’s first smart phone based, business-to-consumer (B2C) 5G commercial services. In two years, the country’s 5G subscribers surpassed 13 million, accounting for 20 percent of total mobile subscriptions. Globally, 5G is in the early stage of development both from market and technology perspectives. However, Korea is one of the countries that have demonstrated early successes in bringing a domestic network to scale and building a comprehensive national strategy to maximize the transformative potential of 5G. The country’s experience shows that even in countries with mature mobile industry, the government role is still critical as a key enabler for 5G ecosystem development. The government provided strategic clarity and adopted an inclusive process in the implementation of the new generation mobile network. This case study examines the lessons learned from Korea’s 5G journey, with a focus on the government strategy and actions to nurture the ecosystem development. The challenges and the lessons learned from Korea’s early experience can offer interesting insights to other countries planning to deploy 5G in the coming years. -
Publication
Demand and Supply Dynamics in East Asia During the COVID-19 Recession
(World Bank, Malaysia, 2021-05-24)The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic has devastated lives and damaged economies, requiring strong and decisive policy responses from governments. Developing the optimal short-term and long-term policy response to the pandemic requires understanding the demand and supply factors that drive economic growth. The appropriate policy response will depend on the size and duration of demand and supply shocks. This Research & Policy Brief provides a decomposition of demand and supply dynamics at the macroeconomic level for the large developing economies of East Asia. The findings suggest that both demand and supply shocks were important drivers of output fluctuations during the first year of the pandemic. The demand shocks created an environment of deficient demand - reflected in large negative output gaps even after the unprecedented policy response - which is expected to last through 2021. The extant deficient demand is suggestive of continued need to support the economic recovery. Its size should guide policy makers in calibrating responses to ensure that recovery is entrenched, and that short-term supply disruptions do not lead to long-term declines in potential growth. -
Publication
Productivity in the Time of COVID-19: Evidence from East Asia and Pacific
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-26)Firms in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region have been hit hard by the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic, with dramatic and widespread falls in sales and employment. Firm sales in some EAP countries were 38 to 58 percent lower in April or May 2020, compared to the same month in the previous year. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have been particularly affected. The pandemic will have a lasting impact on productivity growth as firm indebtedness and increased uncertainty inhibit investment, and firm closures and unemployment lead to a loss of valuable intangible assets. Support for firms is needed but must be based as far as possible on objective criteria, related not only to past performance or current pain but to the potential for firms, including new firms, to thrive in the future. To avoid unduly prolonging assistance, governments should build exit strategies into the design of support measures and commit to phasing support out by linking it to observable macroeconomic indicators of recovery. -
Publication
Impacts of COVID-19 on Firms in the Philippines: Results from the Philippines COVID-19 Firm Survey conducted in November 2020
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021)The findings are based on the survey of 13,878 firms conducted from November 26 to December 10, 2020, to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on firms. This survey builds on a government survey in April 2020 and the World Bank-government joint survey in July 2020, both of which benefit from a large sample size and present a nationwide representative snapshot of firms in the Philippines. Easing of the community quarantine has led to more businesses reopening (63 percent in November vs. 45 percent in July), but with only a small proportion operating at full capacity (9 percent). While some managers closed businesses in compliance with government regulation (9 percent), others voluntarily closed their businesses (21 percent) despite eased community quarantines. About 7 percent of firms reported to have closed permanently. Reduction in sales has continued for firms. 67 percent of firms reported a reduction in sales between July and November 2020, compared to 88 percent between April and July 2020. The main reason for decreased sales is limited operation (58 percent) and inability of customers to come to establishments (38 percent). Downward adjustments of employment continued in November 2020 (38 percent), albeit at a slower pace than in July 2020 (50 percent). Significant shares of firms also made adjustments on the intensive margin, reducing hours (19 percent) and wages (16 percent). Only 3 percent of firms hired new employees. A large share of firms reported acute liquidity constraints, with reports of not having enough cash and having fallen behind in payments. 66 percent of firms did not have enough cash to pay all costs and payments such as payroll, suppliers, taxes or loan repayment beyond 1 month. Two thirds of firms had adjusted loan repayment terms, and 48 percent of firms were in arrears, with an additional 29 percent expecting to be in arrears by February 2021. Despite firms expressing cautious optimism that sales and employment will increase over the next 3 months, many expect their financial positions to worsen. -
Publication
Impacts of COVID-19 on Firms in Malaysia: Results from the 1st Round of COVID-19 Business Pulse Survey
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12)The COVID-19 Business Pulse Survey (BPS) is a rapid survey designed to measure the various channels of impact of COVID-19 on firms, firm adjustment strategies, and public policy responses. The World Bank, in collaboration with a private survey company, conducted the 1st round of the Malaysia BPS in October 2020. Firms were sampled randomly from an online business panel database, which consists of 100,000 plus companies in all sectors and sizes, across Peninsular and East Malaysia. A minimum sample size was obtained for sectors that are important to Malaysia’s economy and are sensitive to the COVID-19 crisis (export oriented activities: electronics, automotive, tourism related activities) while preserving the sectoral shares in the sampling frame. The survey was conducted online and yielded 1,500 responses from respondents in senior management positions at their company (i.e. owners, C-suite or Director level).