Miscellaneous Knowledge Notes

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    Philippines Monthly Economic Developments, August 2023
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-08-22) World Bank
    Gross domestic product (GDP) growth moderated to 4.3 percent in Q2 2023 owing to a slowdown in domestic and external demand. Manufacturing and services continued to weaken in June, although leading indicators suggest a stronger expansion in July. External demand for goods exports softened in June amid slowing global activity, while soft domestic demand led to a contraction in goods imports. The fiscal deficit narrowed in Q2 2023, as public spending declined due to ongoing fiscal consolidation and delays in budget execution. Labor market conditions remained strong, despite an uptick in unemployment and underemployment.
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    Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor: 21 March 2023
    (Washington, DC, 2023-03-21) World Bank
    The economy resumed moderate expansion as private consumption and tourism improved at the beginning of 2023, after a disappointing Q4 outturn. However, lingering soft global demand continued to weigh on goods exports, manufacturing, and private investment. Inflation slowed amid easing global energy prices but remained above the Bank of Thailand’s target range of 1-3 percent. As a result, authorities extended energy-related subsidies while maintaining monetary policy normalization. The Thai baht depreciated the most among major ASEAN currencies in February as the current account turned deficit due to slowing export of goods while substantial portfolio flows exited the equity and bond markets.
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    Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor: February 2023
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-03-14) World Bank
    Growth decelerated more than expected to 1.4 percent in Q4 2022 amid the global economic slowdown. Goods trade contracted while manufacturing production and investment weakened. However, robust private consumption and tourism recovery continued to strengthen the outlook. Headline inflation declined but the second-round impact on domestic prices remained. This prompted the Bank of Thailand to continue monetary policy normalization and the government to extend energy-related subsidies. The current account balance returned to surplus in Q4 2022 on the back of substantially improved tourism receipts, supporting the Thai baht.
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    Connecting the Dots: Toward a Social Protection Interoperability Framework in Fiji
    (Washington, DC, 2022-11) World Bank
    Both the public and private sectors rely on intensive data use in the 21st century. While data is everywhere, accessing that data is difficult. Accessing that data then requires permission, the ability to access and receive the data, and finally, the ability to use that data to produce useful information for citizen servicing. Interoperability aims to resolve these challenges by ensuring coordination across different systems. Interoperability in e-Governance is defined as the ability of different systems from various stakeholders to work together, by communicating, interpreting and exchanging the information in a meaningful way. The Republic of Fiji is home to one of the most sophisticated economies in the Pacific Islands. The recent economic shocks triggered by Coronavirus (COVID-19) as well as several rounds of significant tropical weather events between 2020 and 2022 have highlighted critical systematic challenges in Fiji’s Social Protection (SP) system. The Government of Fiji (GoF) has initiated the social assistance policy reform agenda to address these challenges. In parallel, Technical Assistance (TA) was provided to the Ministry of Women, Children and Poverty Alleviation (MWCPA) and the Department of Social Welfare (DSW) by the World Bank, which includes an IT assessment with recommendations for enhancing the Social Protection IT infrastructure in the DSW and the SP sector in the country and a roadmap for the gradual introduction of an Integrated Social Protection Digital Platform (ISPDP) in Fiji. Interoperability is a key enabler of a more adaptive and gender-inclusive social protection system in Fiji.
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    Public Services and COVID-19: Reflections from the Pacific - Trust
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-10-24) World Bank
    The purpose of this note is to identify good practice in public sector management drawn from Pacific Island public service experiences of navigating the COVID-19 pandemic. These experiences were brought together through a World Bank engagement with Pacific Island countries in 2021 and 2022. The engagement identified five core aspects of Pacific Island public service management in response to COVID-19: trust, preparation, adaptable system settings, adaptable operating models, and sustainable wage bills. This first note in the series of five focuses on the importance of trust. The primary audience is public service leaders in Pacific Islands. The note will also be of interest to anyone working on designing and leading public sector management systems through rapid change, uncertainty and crises.
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    Economic and Social Impacts of the Recent Crises in Tonga: Insights from the April-May 2022 Round of High Frequency Phone Surveys
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-10-21) World Bank
    This report includes: the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai (HT-HH) volcanic eruption (January 15, 2022) and a subsequent tsunami, COVID-19 outbreak and the associated lockdown (starting on February 2); to assess and monitor the economic and social impacts of the crises, the World Bank launched household-level HFPS with a plan to collect 6 rounds of surveys until mid-2024; surveys interview the same households across rounds to monitor various socio-economic outcomes and inform policy and government programs; and similar HFPS have been implemented in Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands with Vanuatu and Fiji in the pipeline, under the World Bank Pacific Observatory initiative
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    COVID-19 in Papua New Guinea: Economic and Social Impacts - Insights from the Fifth Round of High Frequency Phone Surveys
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-05-31) World Bank
    The fifth round of the high frequency phone survey (HFPS) interviewed 2,630 households in June 2022 on the socioeconomic impacts of COVID-19, including employment and income, community trust and security and COVID-19 vaccination. It follows four rounds of surveys conducted from June 2020 to December 2021. The previous round of the HFPS (round 4), found that recovery was weak in 2021, with household incomes falling, and highlighted persistently low COVID-19 vaccination rates. While the third wave of COVID-19 was over by June 2022, PNG remains the least vaccinated country in the EAP region and could be vulnerable to future outbreaks of COVID-19. The World Bank estimates that the PNG economy contracted by 3.5 percent in 2020 before returning to positive economic growth of 1 percent in 2021. Stronger economic growth is projected for 2022, of 4 percent. In particular, strong growth is projected for the extractive sector (6.8 percent). However, the trajectory of economic recovery remains highly uncertain.
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    Results from Round Three (July 2021) of the Solomon Islands High-Frequency Phone Survey
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-04-01) Johnson, Darcey Jeanne Genou ; Naidoo, Darian ; Wokker, Christopher Jan ; Zheng, Shuwen
    These are four reports covering the July 2021 Solomon Islands phone survey: The first brief presents analysis of the social and food security impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Solomon Islands. While widespread transmission of COVID-19 did not occur in 2021, COVID-19 preparedness measures such as border closures and precautionary public health measures, as well as weak external demand may have had an impact on the welfare of households. The findings in this brief come from the third round of the World Bank’s High Frequency Phone Surveys (HFPS), as well as UNICEF’s Social-Economic Impact Assessment Survey (SIAS). The second brief focuses on household level impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Solomon Islands for the first half of 2021 based on data from the third round of the World Bank’s High Frequency Phone Surveys (HFPS) and UNICEF’s Social-Economic Impact Assessment Survey (SIAS). The survey covered topics including employment and income, COVID-19 vaccination, basic services, food security and nutrition, coping strategies, public services, and public trust and security. While widespread transmission of COVID-19 did not occur in 2021, COVID-19 preparedness measures such as border closures and precautionary public health measures, as well as weak external demand may have had an impact on the welfare of households. The third brief focuses on household-level economic impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Solomon Islands during the first half of 2021, based on data from a High Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS). While widespread transmission of COVID-19 did not occur in 2021, COVID-19 preparedness measures such as border closures and precautionary public health measures, as well as weak external demand may have had an impact on the welfare of households. The annex provides information on the survey methodology. The fourth brief covers COVID-19 Vaccination and Essential Service Access.
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    Firms’ Recovery from COVID-19 in Malaysia: Results from the 4th Round of COVID-19 Business Pulse Survey
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-02-28) Kuriakose, Smita ; Tran, Trang Thu ; Ting, Kok Onn ; Hebous, Sarah Waltraut
    The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) business pulse survey (BPS) is a rapid survey designed to measure the various channels of impact of COVID-19 on firms, firm adjustment strategies, and public policy responses. The World Bank, in collaboration with a private survey company, conducted the 4th round of the Malaysia BPS in February to March 2022, following the 1st round in October 2020, 2nd round in Mid-January to February 2021, and 3rd round in July 2021. Firms were sampled randomly from an online business panel database, which consists of 100,000+ companies in all sectors and sizes, across Peninsular and East Malaysia. A minimum sample size was obtained for sectors that are important to Malaysia’s economy and are sensitive to the COVID-19 crisis (export-oriented activities: electronics, automotive, tourism related activities) while preserving the sectoral shares in the sampling frame. The survey was conducted online and yielded 1,500 responses from respondents in senior management positions at their company (i.e. owners, C-suite or Director level).
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    Why Central Bank Independence Matters
    (World Bank, Malaysia, 2021-11-30) Bandaogo, Mahama Samir
    Deep economic crises - the global financial crisis and the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic - have put some strains on and rekindled an older debate about the costs and benefits of central bank Independence. Central banks have been accorded more independence since the 1970s, which has helped bring down and keep inflation low and reduced the risk of fiscal crises. However, as their interventions in the economy with unconventional policies expand further beyond their original mandate, especially those pertaining to financial stability, critics have called for more oversight of their activities. That is because some of the central banks’ newfound responsibilities such as financial stability does not have a precise and unambiguous target or measure, making accountability difficult. The evidence in support of central bank independence remains strong, as highlighted in this brief. However, in light of the expansion of central banks’ power, reforms should aim to institute oversight of the newfound powers.