Miscellaneous Knowledge Notes

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Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor: 29 August, 2024
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-03) World Bank
Growth accelerated in Q2 to 2.3 percent, slightly above expectations, but the recovery continued to lag ASEAN peers. In June, data indicated a subdued recovery, with activity slowing and consumer confidence declining amid heightened political uncertainty. While manufacturing growth expanded modestly for the full quarter, June activity data shows a renewed decline, and the growth in tourist arrivals slowed. The trade deficit persisted, driven by lagging export recovery and rising imports, particularly from China. Inflation edged up slightly to 0.8 percent (y/y) but remained among the lowest in emerging markets. Fiscal spending accelerated despite political uncertainty; the Bank of Thailand maintained its policy rate while easing credit card repayment regulations to support households. The Thai baht appreciated, driven by expectations of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle and a persistent current account surplus.
Vietnam Macro Monitoring
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-09) World Bank
Industrial production showed a significant increase, with the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growing by 2.6 percent month-on-month (m/m) and 8.9 percent year-on-year (y/y), attributed to improved exports, particularly in manufacturing sectors. Retail sales experienced a modest recovery, growth rate indicated that consumer demand remains relatively weak. Both exports and imports experienced a surge, with exports and imports growing. The y/y growth rates were also substantial, suggesting increased demand from trade partners. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) commitments and disbursements were solid, with the majority of FDI flowing into manufacturing and real estate sectors. Inflation rates remained stable, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation at 4.4 percent y/y and core inflation slightly moderating. The Vietnamese Dong (VND) continued to face depreciation pressure against the US Dollar (USD), and the interbank interest rates reflected a tightening of liquidity by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). Public revenue collection improved, but public expenditures and investment disbursements showed a slower pace. The government and SBV proposed measures to support the economy, including extending VAT reduction, reducing lending interest rates, and advancing the implementation of revised real estate laws. The report also notes that while there is a recovery in external demand, domestic demand and consumption show mixed signs. The authorities' measures aim to support the economy, but there are concerns about the impact of a strong US dollar and interest rate reductions on the exchange rate. The recommendation is to continue supporting aggregate demand through capital expenditures.
Indonesia Coral Bond - An Innovative Ocean Financing Instrument
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-06-05) World Bank
Thanks to funding support from the PROBLUE and Indonesia Oceans, Marine Debris and Coastal Resources Multi-Donor Trust Funds, the World Bank, the Government of Indonesia, the Global Environment Facility, the International Union for Conservation of Nature, and BNP Paribas are joining forces to develop the world’s first impact bond for coral reef conservation. The proposed Indonesia Coral Bond is designed to deliver independently verified conservation and biodiversity outcomes in some of the most biodiverse coral reef ecosystems on the planet. The proposed bond leverages an existing US$210 million World Bank operation (the Oceans for Prosperity Project) supporting the Government of Indonesia to increase management effectiveness in marine protected areas
Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, May 2024
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-05-16) World Bank
The economy slowed more than expected due to sluggish external demand and delayed budget approval. Expanding private consumption and tourism continued to drive services growth, albeit at a slower pace. Inflation increased due to the removal of energy subsidies and elevated food prices but remained the lowest among emerging markets. The delayed budget approval led to minimal public spending in Q1. However, the recent enactment of the FY24 budget and the upcoming rollout of the Digital Wallet cash transfer in Q4 buoyed the near-term growth outlook. Despite a current account surplus, the Thai baht depreciated in April due to a delay to the Fed’s easing cycle and concerns over the Thai economy and the fiscal implications of the Digital Wallet.
Viet Nam Macro Monitoring
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-03) World Bank
Industrial production in Viet Nam decreased due to the Tet holiday in February 2024. The subdued domestic consumption and private investment warrants close monitoring. In contrast, recent high frequency data suggests strong upside risks to growth in advanced economies, especially US which could in turn induce a stronger recovery in Viet Nam. The government could further accelerate the implementation of its public investment program to support aggregate demand. Addressing banking sector vulnerabilities, including strengthening prudential supervision, early interventions and bank resolution and crisis management, would help put the banks on a stronger footing for recovery.
Vietnam - Upgrading infrastructure design for universal accessibility
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-21) World Bank
The World Bank’s Vietnam Scaling Up Urban Upgrading Project aimed to develop sustainable urban infrastructure in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta Region. The project focused on universally accessible design principles for infrastructure development and aimed to strengthen planning capacity, improve infrastructure design, increase awareness of universal accessibility, and promote green infrastructure. A QII Partnership grant supported the project by facilitating the application of principles and providing technical advice. These activities will benefit seven urbanizing cities, improve livelihoods, and reach approximately 90,000 individuals in low-income areas with universal accessibility design. It has also informed new World Bank initiatives to improve accessibility regionally and globally.
Myanmar Budget Brief, November 2023
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-01-12) World Bank
This budget brief presents a summary of developments in Myanmar’s public finances. This report includes three sections that cover the aggregate fiscal update, public finance developments in states and regions, and core service ministries. The report relies on data from published reports of the Ministry of Planning and Finance, and other publicly available information.
Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor: 27 October, 2023
(Washington, DC, 2023-11-13) World Bank
The economy continued its moderate expansion, driven by private consumption and improving goods exports. However, the tourism recovery decelerated. Inflation remained significantly below peers; raw food prices fell and energy subsidies contained pressure on living costs. The planned fiscal stimulus measures will provide a short-term boost to growth but delay ongoing fiscal consolidation. The Bank of Thailand unexpectedly raised its policy rate to 2.50 percent. In September, the Thai baht depreciated against major trading partners.
Vietnam Macro Monitoring
(Washington, DC, 2023-10-31) World Bank
This brief discusses the economic development of Vietnam for September 2023. While economic growth picked up in Q3-2023 thanks to a gradual recovery of the exports, domestic consumption remained subdued and credit growth continued to be slow reflecting weak private domestic investment and investors’ confidence. A sharp upward trend in headline inflation continues to warrant close watch. Continued efforts to implement public investment could support aggregate demand and economic growth in the short run. A strategic and well-prepared investment pipeline for 2024 and the next Medium-Term Investment Plan (MTIP) with a focus on green, resilient, and regional infrastructure will help bolster long term economic development. Further improving the business environment and stepping up investment in human capital would help the country: attract high-tech and high-value-addition FDI and boost productivity in the long run.
Vietnam Macro Monitoring
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-09-27) World Bank
This brief discusses the economic development of Vietnam for August 2023. While the export slump may have bottomed out, and domestic consumption remained resilient, credit growth continued to be slow, reflecting weak private domestic investment and investors’ confidence. Recent upward movements in global energy prices warrants close monitoring of CPI inflation. This may also prevent SBV from loosening monetary policy further. The continuation of tight global financial conditions warrants flexible FX management to accommodate external conditions. Further acceleration of public investment disbursement could support aggregate demand and economic growth in the short run while focusing on priority green and resilient infrastructure and human capital investments will help bolster long term economic development.