Miscellaneous Knowledge Notes

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https://hdl.handle.net/10986/9388

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Female-Owned Firms during the COVID-19 Crisis
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-07-29) Hyland, Marie; Muzi, Silvia; Viganola, Domenico
This brief use firm-level data collected between May 2020 and May 2021 in 41 countries, to provide descriptive evidence on the differential effect of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis on female- and male-owned firms. Data suggest that while female-owned and male-owned businesses closed permanently at the same rates, female-owned firms were more likely to have temporarily closed during the crisis and to have closed for a longer duration. When able to stay in business, female-owned firms were more likely to experience a decrease in demand for their products or services and supply of intermediate inputs than male-owned firms. They also reduced the size of their workforce more than their male counterparts and were more likely to reduce hours worked. Finally, female-owned firms suffered deeper financial distress than male-owned firms. Nevertheless, female and male-owned firms show similar optimism of returning to normal levels of sales or workforce in the near future.
Impacts of COVID-19 on Firms in Malaysia: Results from the 3rd Round of COVID-19 Business Pulse Survey
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-07) Kuriakose, Smita; Tran, Trang; Ting, Kok Onn; Hebous, Sarah
The COVID-19 Business Pulse Survey (BPS) is a rapid survey designed to measure the various channels of impact of COVID-19 on firms, firm adjustment strategies, and public policy responses. The World Bank, in collaboration with a private survey company, conducted the 3rd round of survey in July 2021, following the 1st round in October 2020 and 2nd round of the Malaysia BPS in Mid-January to February 2021. Firms were sampled randomly from an online business panel database, which consists of 100,000+ companies in all sectors and sizes, across Peninsular and East Malaysia. A minimum sample size was obtained for sectors that are important to Malaysia’s economy and are sensitive to the COVID-19 crisis (export-oriented activities: electronics, automotive, tourism related activities) while preserving the sectoral shares in the sampling frame. The survey was conducted online and yielded 1,500 responses from respondents in senior management positions at their company (i.e. owners, C-suite or Director level).
Impacts of COVID-19 on Firms in Malaysia: Results from the 2nd Round of COVID-19 Business Pulse Survey
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06-24) Kuriakose, Smita; Tran, Trang; Ting, Kok Onn; Hebeous, Sarah
The re-imposition of the Conditional Movement Control Order during mid-October 2020 and the upgrade to a stricter lockdown to Movement Control Order in January 2021 has substantially weakened the recovery momentum highlighted in Round 1 of Business Pulse Survey (early October 2020). To adapt to the latest lockdown, the majority of firms responded by remaining partially open in operations. Employment adjustments such as reducing work hours remain the most common method by firms. Supply chain disruptions remain a major problem in the market. Adoption of digital technologies remains the most popular choice for adjustment by firms, with sales and marketing functions topping the list of digital adoption.
The Evolving Effect of COVID-19 on the Private Sector
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06-24) Karalashvili, Nona; Viganola, Domenico
This brief provides a descriptive analysis of the evolving effect of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic on the private sector of 40 countries. It focuses on the essential aspects of business operations: namely, firms' survival, production of goods and services, and jobs. Firms have suffered massive demand and supply shocks, affecting nearly all sectors. These shocks and the consequent drop in revenues have dried up firms' cash flows, depleting their working capital and putting the private sector under considerable financial distress. This brief also examines the effect of the pandemic on firms' liquidity, providing general assessments of the variation of these effects by country income level and firm characteristics. Firms in lower-income countries seem to have been hit harder across several measures, such as declines in sales and the incidence of overdue financial obligations. Within countries, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with 5 to 99 employees seem to have fared more poorly than large firms. While some signs of a recovery in terms of sales and capacity utilization are emerging, the recovery is fragile, as it bypasses important aspects such as liquidity and job creation. For a full post-pandemic recovery, it is important that sound businesses that are facing a temporary liquidity problem survive, and the workforce rebounds.
Demand and Supply Dynamics in East Asia During the COVID-19 Recession
(World Bank, Malaysia, 2021-05-24) Islamaj, Ergys; Ruch, Franz Ulrich; Vashakmadze, Eka
The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic has devastated lives and damaged economies, requiring strong and decisive policy responses from governments. Developing the optimal short-term and long-term policy response to the pandemic requires understanding the demand and supply factors that drive economic growth. The appropriate policy response will depend on the size and duration of demand and supply shocks. This Research & Policy Brief provides a decomposition of demand and supply dynamics at the macroeconomic level for the large developing economies of East Asia. The findings suggest that both demand and supply shocks were important drivers of output fluctuations during the first year of the pandemic. The demand shocks created an environment of deficient demand - reflected in large negative output gaps even after the unprecedented policy response - which is expected to last through 2021. The extant deficient demand is suggestive of continued need to support the economic recovery. Its size should guide policy makers in calibrating responses to ensure that recovery is entrenched, and that short-term supply disruptions do not lead to long-term declines in potential growth.
Monitoring the Impact of COVID-19 on Firms in Zambia: Results from Two Rounds of World Bank Enterprise Survey Follow-ups on COVID-19
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-05) Finn, Arden; Ayana, Gemechu A.; Kanagavel, Rajee
The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and its negative economic effects create a need for timely data and evidence to help monitor and mitigate the social and economic impacts of the crisis. To monitor the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and related containment measures on formal firms in Zambia and to inform the policy response, the World Bank is implementing several rounds of phone-based surveys of firms. The surveys in Zambia are follow-ons from the baseline enterprise survey that was conducted in Zambia immediately prior to the pandemic. These phone surveys allow for a better understanding of the effects of and responses to the COVID-19 pandemic on firm operations, hiring and firing, and expectations of future operations and labor demand in order to better tailor and implement interventions and policy responses and monitor their effects. This note summarizes the results of round 2 (R2) of the survey, conducted between December 19, 2020 and February 18, 2021. The information presented in this report is based on the sample of 570 firms that responded to both round 1 (R1) and round 2 (R2) surveys.
Productivity in the Time of COVID-19: Evidence from East Asia and Pacific
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-26) De Nicola, Francesca; Mattoo, Aaditya; Timmis, Jonathan; Tran, Trang Thu; Mattoo, Aaditya
Firms in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region have been hit hard by the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic, with dramatic and widespread falls in sales and employment. Firm sales in some EAP countries were 38 to 58 percent lower in April or May 2020, compared to the same month in the previous year. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have been particularly affected. The pandemic will have a lasting impact on productivity growth as firm indebtedness and increased uncertainty inhibit investment, and firm closures and unemployment lead to a loss of valuable intangible assets. Support for firms is needed but must be based as far as possible on objective criteria, related not only to past performance or current pain but to the potential for firms, including new firms, to thrive in the future. To avoid unduly prolonging assistance, governments should build exit strategies into the design of support measures and commit to phasing support out by linking it to observable macroeconomic indicators of recovery.
The Calm Before the Storm: Early Evidence on Business Insolvency Filings After the Onset of COVID-19
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-02-25) Muro, Sergio
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic brought forward an unprecedented economic contraction. Recessions, in turn, have typically been accompanied by an increase in the number of firms using the insolvency system. This note explores the early impact the pandemic has had on business insolvency filings, based on information from a newly created dataset. Contrary to early expectations, most economies surveyed have experienced a decline in the number of business insolvencies relative to Q2 and Q3 of 2019. shows that legal reasons may have played a key role in this decline as almost all economies covered introduced emergency measures making it more difficult to push a debtor into insolvency. Looking forward, the note explores evidence from previous crisis together with underlying factors -such as lower sales, higher unemployment, firm liquidity challenges, and heightened corporate vulnerabilities- to investigate whether the risk of a wave of insolvencies has disappeared. The analysis suggests that a rise in insolvency filings is likely to have just been postponed, renewing the calls to strengthen insolvency frameworks in EMDEs.
Impacts of COVID-19 on Firms in the Philippines: Results from the Philippines COVID-19 Firm Survey conducted in November 2020
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021) World Bank
The findings are based on the survey of 13,878 firms conducted from November 26 to December 10, 2020, to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on firms. This survey builds on a government survey in April 2020 and the World Bank-government joint survey in July 2020, both of which benefit from a large sample size and present a nationwide representative snapshot of firms in the Philippines. Easing of the community quarantine has led to more businesses reopening (63 percent in November vs. 45 percent in July), but with only a small proportion operating at full capacity (9 percent). While some managers closed businesses in compliance with government regulation (9 percent), others voluntarily closed their businesses (21 percent) despite eased community quarantines. About 7 percent of firms reported to have closed permanently. Reduction in sales has continued for firms. 67 percent of firms reported a reduction in sales between July and November 2020, compared to 88 percent between April and July 2020. The main reason for decreased sales is limited operation (58 percent) and inability of customers to come to establishments (38 percent). Downward adjustments of employment continued in November 2020 (38 percent), albeit at a slower pace than in July 2020 (50 percent). Significant shares of firms also made adjustments on the intensive margin, reducing hours (19 percent) and wages (16 percent). Only 3 percent of firms hired new employees. A large share of firms reported acute liquidity constraints, with reports of not having enough cash and having fallen behind in payments. 66 percent of firms did not have enough cash to pay all costs and payments such as payroll, suppliers, taxes or loan repayment beyond 1 month. Two thirds of firms had adjusted loan repayment terms, and 48 percent of firms were in arrears, with an additional 29 percent expecting to be in arrears by February 2021. Despite firms expressing cautious optimism that sales and employment will increase over the next 3 months, many expect their financial positions to worsen.
The Impact of COVID-19 on Formal Firms in Honduras: Evidence from Monthly Tax Returns
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-01) Bachas, Pierre; Brockmeyer, Anne; Semelet, Camille
We measure the impact of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) crisis and the resulting lockdown on formal firms in Honduras, using monthly value-added tax records for January 2018 to August 2020. Firms' revenue fell by 26 percent, or 342.6 billion lempiras (USD 14.3 billion), in real terms between March and August 2020 and the same period in 2019. Sectors subject to stricter containment measures experienced larger revenue losses. The service sector was the most severely affected, experiencing a 45 percent revenue loss. Larger firms experienced smaller revenue losses than smaller firms, even when accounting for the sectoral composition of firm-size groups. A non-negligible number of firms remained shut down until the end of available data in August 2020.