Miscellaneous Knowledge Notes
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Publication
Philippines Monthly Economic Developments, August 2023
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-08-22)Gross domestic product (GDP) growth moderated to 4.3 percent in Q2 2023 owing to a slowdown in domestic and external demand. Manufacturing and services continued to weaken in June, although leading indicators suggest a stronger expansion in July. External demand for goods exports softened in June amid slowing global activity, while soft domestic demand led to a contraction in goods imports. The fiscal deficit narrowed in Q2 2023, as public spending declined due to ongoing fiscal consolidation and delays in budget execution. Labor market conditions remained strong, despite an uptick in unemployment and underemployment. -
Publication
Assessment and Options Analysis of Climate and Nature Financing Instruments and Opportunities: Summary Note on Financing for Climate and Nature
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-08-17)Despite increasing recognition of the material impact of nature degradation, the global financing gap for climate and nature investments is significant and growing. The Paulson Institute estimated in 2020 that the biodiversity financing gap at an average of US$711 billion per year. Government leaders and private enterprises must accelerate and scale financial resource mobilization strategies to close this gap. However, at a national level, many developing countries have limited market access and lack the fiscal space to mobilize financing at the scale required to avoid the severe negative impacts of biodiversity loss, nature degradation, and reduced ecosystem services. This can precipitate countries into a vicious circle, whereby delayed investment at scale exposes them to the risk of ecosystems collapse. These systems also provide essential climate benefits in terms of carbon sinks and adaptation buffers against severe climate impacts (e.g., floods, droughts, storms). These natural assets underpin economic growth of developing countries but are currently undervalued and underinvested. Given the difficulty of estimating the timing, progression, and extent of these impacts and their global public good (GPG) nature, other more immediate or visible needs tend to be prioritized. However, when nature-related risks materialize, economic activity is likely to contract, further reducing fiscal space, increasing a country’s borrowing costs, and delaying investments. -
Publication
Monitoring Impacts of COVID-19 and Other Shocks, Round 12, Feb-Mar 2023
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-07-28)In June 2020, the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), in collaboration with the World Bank, officially launched the Uganda High Frequency Phone Survey (UHFPS) to track the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on a regular basis. In June 2022, the scope of the survey was expanded to monitor economic sentiments and the socioeconomic impact of other shocks such as the Russia-Ukraine war, Ebola outbreak and extreme weather events. In addition, the survey is being used to collect perceptions on different development policies and programs. The survey aimed to recontact the entire sample of households that had been interviewed during the Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS) 2019/20 round and that had phone numbers for at least one household member or a reference individual. This brief presents findings from the most recent round (12th) of the UHFPS, conducted in February-March 2023. -
Publication
Protecting Workers, Firms, and Worker-Firm Attachment During COVID-19: Economic Considerations for the Assessment of Policy Measures
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-07-26)Governments around the world provided various types of support to businesses and their employees affected by the by the COVID-19 pandemic, to preserve employer-employee links, organizational knowledge, and firm-specific human capital, and to facilitate the economic recovery. This note complements efforts dedicated to document jobs-related policy responses by providing an overview of some of the basic economic considerations for the design and assessment of these policy measures, with special attention to emerging economies. The authors outline a simple framework for policy assessment that accounts for the mechanisms that transmit COVID-19 shocks through the economy and the implications of the larger informal sector and fiscal constraints shared by many emerging economies. The authors then apply this framework to analyze an array of policies that have been deployed to prevent and address business failures and job losses in sectors directly or indirectly affected by the pandemic. -
Publication
Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, July 2023
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-07-24)The economy maintained moderate expansion, driven by private consumption and tourism. Declining inflation alleviated pressure on living costs and supported private consumption. However, goods exports as well as manufacturing production and investment contracted due to weak external demand. Public debt remained stable;a decrease in budget deficit financing was offset by increased borrowing to support the State Oil Fund. In June, the Thai baht depreciated compared to major ASEAN currencies, primarily due to an all-year high current account deficit. -
Publication
Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor: 21 March 2023
(Washington, DC, 2023-03-21)The economy resumed moderate expansion as private consumption and tourism improved at the beginning of 2023, after a disappointing Q4 outturn. However, lingering soft global demand continued to weigh on goods exports, manufacturing, and private investment. Inflation slowed amid easing global energy prices but remained above the Bank of Thailand’s target range of 1-3 percent. As a result, authorities extended energy-related subsidies while maintaining monetary policy normalization. The Thai baht depreciated the most among major ASEAN currencies in February as the current account turned deficit due to slowing export of goods while substantial portfolio flows exited the equity and bond markets. -
Publication
Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor: February 2023
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-03-14)Growth decelerated more than expected to 1.4 percent in Q4 2022 amid the global economic slowdown. Goods trade contracted while manufacturing production and investment weakened. However, robust private consumption and tourism recovery continued to strengthen the outlook. Headline inflation declined but the second-round impact on domestic prices remained. This prompted the Bank of Thailand to continue monetary policy normalization and the government to extend energy-related subsidies. The current account balance returned to surplus in Q4 2022 on the back of substantially improved tourism receipts, supporting the Thai baht. -
Publication
Drivers of Public Debt in East Asia and Pacific Economies
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-12-16)Public debt in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) economies has increased markedly since the recession in 2020 induced by COVID-19 pandemic. This brief uses standard debt dynamic accounting decomposition to quantify the main drivers of debt accumulation in developing EAP countries since 2000. In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, larger primary deficits have been the main drivers of the increase in the ratio of public debt to GDP in most developing EAP economies. While strong GDP growth and, to a certain extent, inflation have helped deflate public-debt-to-GDP ratios during the past two decades, they have, on average, been more muted since the COVID-19 shock. -
Publication
High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) - Phase 2: Sampling Design, Weighting, and Estimation
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-12)After implementing Phase 1 of the High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) project in Latin America and The Caribbean (LAC) in 2020, the World Bank conducted Phase 2 in 2021 to continue to assess the socio-economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on households. This new phase, conducted in partnership with the UNDP LAC Chief Economist office, included two waves. Wave 1 covered 24 countries and Wave 2 covered 22 countries. Of these countries, 13 participated in Phase 1 and the rest joined in Phase 2. This document describes the sampling design, weighting and the right procedure to estimate indicators for the LAC HFPS Phase 2 surveys. -
Publication
Vietnam Macro Monitoring
(World Bank, 2022-12)This brief discusses the economic development of Vietnam for the month of December 2022.The two drivers of economic growth, exports and domestic demand, are moderating. Softer external demand has weighed on Vietnam’s exports. The post-covid consumption rebound also appears to be fading and tighter domestic financial conditions and rising inflation could affect domestic demand going forward. Reflecting weaker external demand, growth of industrial production moderated to 5.3 percent (y/y) in November, the lowest rate since February 2022. CPI inflation reached 4.4 percent (y/y) in November, compared to 4.3 percent recorded a month earlier, with food and housing being two major contributors. Credit growth fell from 16.5 percent (y/y) in October to 15.0 percent (y/y) in November as domestic financial conditions tightened after the State Bank of Vietnam raised key policy interest rates in September and October. The Vietnamese dong gained slightly in value in November 2022 although the dong’s appreciation is one of the smallest compared to major currencies and currencies of its neighbors. As of end November, the national budget registered a 12.1 billion surplus (about 3 percent of GDP). With global financing conditions expected to remain tight and weakening external demand, Vietnamese monetary authorities could consider allowing further flexibility in the exchange rate to absorb changes in the external environment. Fiscal and monetary policy coordination will be critical to ensure price stability in light of accelerating domestic core inflation. A more prudent and prioritized expenditure strategy could focus on ensuring investments in human capital and resilient and green infrastructure to help bolster economic potential and resilience.