Miscellaneous Knowledge Notes
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Publication
Vietnam Macro Monitoring
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-09-27)This brief discusses the economic development of Vietnam for August 2023. While the export slump may have bottomed out, and domestic consumption remained resilient, credit growth continued to be slow, reflecting weak private domestic investment and investors’ confidence. Recent upward movements in global energy prices warrants close monitoring of CPI inflation. This may also prevent SBV from loosening monetary policy further. The continuation of tight global financial conditions warrants flexible FX management to accommodate external conditions. Further acceleration of public investment disbursement could support aggregate demand and economic growth in the short run while focusing on priority green and resilient infrastructure and human capital investments will help bolster long term economic development. -
Publication
On the Construction of the World Bank’s Subnational Poverty and Inequality Databases: Documentation
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-09-26)In many countries, large differences in poverty persist at the subnational level. In addition, global challenges such as climate change, fragility, economic crises, and food insecurity are often trans-border issues that pose significant risks for poverty reduction both across and within countries. Traditional poverty measures are generally presented at the national level, potentially obscuring local and regional variations of poverty and inequality. To overcome these challenges, this note describes the construction of two databases designed to provide a more granular perspective on poverty. The Subnational Poverty and Inequality Database (SPID) presents direct survey estimates of poverty and inequality from nationally representative household surveys over time. The Global Subnational Atlas of Poverty (GSAP) presents poverty estimates of survey-representative administrative areas projected to a common year. Both databases use the same underlying household survey data used by the World Bank to monitor global poverty. -
Publication
The Value of Data: An Estimate of the Cost of (Not) Updating Brazil’s Consumer Price Index
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-09-01)Consumer price indices are central to monitoring, guiding, and defining a country's economic development path. By capturing how prices change over time, consumer price indices provide a measure of the evolution of the cost of living for households. The impact of price indices on the economy is very broad, affecting everything from the adjustment of pensions to the monetary policy of the Central Bank, from cash transfer programs to private sector contracts. The measurement of inflation has, therefore, real consequences for the country's evolution. In this note, authors study the Brazilian case and focus on the potential fiscal implications of the unavailability of a household budget survey in a timely manner. The note presents two hypothetical exercises that vary the timing at which the national statistical office incorporates updated information from a household budget survey into the CPI. Varying the timing of adoption of the expenditure information allows to create a counterfactual price index that can be compared to the true CPI at different points in time. Finally, using the actual and counterfactual CPI we answer the following question: what would have been the government expenditures should the CPI update have been delayed The note focuses on expenditures on pensions (aposentadorias) due to data availability. Recognizing that there are many other government policies that depend on inflation estimates, the estimates presented can be interpreted as a lower bound of the effect of interest. -
Publication
Philippines Monthly Economic Developments, August 2023
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-08-22)Gross domestic product (GDP) growth moderated to 4.3 percent in Q2 2023 owing to a slowdown in domestic and external demand. Manufacturing and services continued to weaken in June, although leading indicators suggest a stronger expansion in July. External demand for goods exports softened in June amid slowing global activity, while soft domestic demand led to a contraction in goods imports. The fiscal deficit narrowed in Q2 2023, as public spending declined due to ongoing fiscal consolidation and delays in budget execution. Labor market conditions remained strong, despite an uptick in unemployment and underemployment. -
Publication
Assessment and Options Analysis of Climate and Nature Financing Instruments and Opportunities: Summary Note on Financing for Climate and Nature
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-08-17)Despite increasing recognition of the material impact of nature degradation, the global financing gap for climate and nature investments is significant and growing. The Paulson Institute estimated in 2020 that the biodiversity financing gap at an average of US$711 billion per year. Government leaders and private enterprises must accelerate and scale financial resource mobilization strategies to close this gap. However, at a national level, many developing countries have limited market access and lack the fiscal space to mobilize financing at the scale required to avoid the severe negative impacts of biodiversity loss, nature degradation, and reduced ecosystem services. This can precipitate countries into a vicious circle, whereby delayed investment at scale exposes them to the risk of ecosystems collapse. These systems also provide essential climate benefits in terms of carbon sinks and adaptation buffers against severe climate impacts (e.g., floods, droughts, storms). These natural assets underpin economic growth of developing countries but are currently undervalued and underinvested. Given the difficulty of estimating the timing, progression, and extent of these impacts and their global public good (GPG) nature, other more immediate or visible needs tend to be prioritized. However, when nature-related risks materialize, economic activity is likely to contract, further reducing fiscal space, increasing a country’s borrowing costs, and delaying investments. -
Publication
Supporting Artisanal and Small-scale Mining Communities During the COVID-19 Pandemic
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-08-01)In 2020, the World Bank projected that the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic could push more than hundred million people into extreme poverty. The estimated forty-five million people around the world working in artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) were particularly vulnerable because of the informal, often precarious nature of their working conditions and lack of access to social safety nets. At the height of the initial lockdown, as mineral prices dropped and mining sites closed, artisanal and small-scale miners, their families, and their communities suffered large declines in income and rising food insecurity. Without intervention, they were at risk of sliding into poverty. At the same time, there was concern that gains made over several decades to formalize the sector would be eroded, particularly where community tensions were rising. To address these risks, the World Bank took early action. In May 2020, the extractives global programmatic support (EGPS) trust fund initiated a rapid global survey to identify miners’ needs and then used the results to mobilize an emergency response window that raised 6.6 million in support to ASM communities in 22 countries. This report describes the EGPS emergency response window for ASM Communities Impacted by COVID-19, what it achieved, and what the World Bank has identified as priority areas for action in ASM communities going forward. -
Publication
The West Africa Unique Identification for Regional Integration and Inclusion (WURI) Program: Unique Identifiers to Enable Access to Human Development Services
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-07-31)Access to basic human development programs in West Africa is particularly low. Individually, the sub-region’s countries perform poorly on the Human Capital Index (HCI). It is the second-lowest African region in rank for social safety net coverage. By contrast, the subregion has the second highest transaction value of mobile money on the continent. This case study examines the West Africa Unique Identification for Regional Integration and Inclusion (WURI) Program, which aims to confront this challenge head-on. In 2022, the program was working in six countries across two phases in partnership with the governments, and with the ECOWAS Commission. -
Publication
Monitoring Impacts of COVID-19 and Other Shocks, Round 12, Feb-Mar 2023
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-07-28)In June 2020, the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), in collaboration with the World Bank, officially launched the Uganda High Frequency Phone Survey (UHFPS) to track the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on a regular basis. In June 2022, the scope of the survey was expanded to monitor economic sentiments and the socioeconomic impact of other shocks such as the Russia-Ukraine war, Ebola outbreak and extreme weather events. In addition, the survey is being used to collect perceptions on different development policies and programs. The survey aimed to recontact the entire sample of households that had been interviewed during the Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS) 2019/20 round and that had phone numbers for at least one household member or a reference individual. This brief presents findings from the most recent round (12th) of the UHFPS, conducted in February-March 2023. -
Publication
Protecting Workers, Firms, and Worker-Firm Attachment During COVID-19: Economic Considerations for the Assessment of Policy Measures
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-07-26)Governments around the world provided various types of support to businesses and their employees affected by the by the COVID-19 pandemic, to preserve employer-employee links, organizational knowledge, and firm-specific human capital, and to facilitate the economic recovery. This note complements efforts dedicated to document jobs-related policy responses by providing an overview of some of the basic economic considerations for the design and assessment of these policy measures, with special attention to emerging economies. The authors outline a simple framework for policy assessment that accounts for the mechanisms that transmit COVID-19 shocks through the economy and the implications of the larger informal sector and fiscal constraints shared by many emerging economies. The authors then apply this framework to analyze an array of policies that have been deployed to prevent and address business failures and job losses in sectors directly or indirectly affected by the pandemic. -
Publication
Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, July 2023
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-07-24)The economy maintained moderate expansion, driven by private consumption and tourism. Declining inflation alleviated pressure on living costs and supported private consumption. However, goods exports as well as manufacturing production and investment contracted due to weak external demand. Public debt remained stable;a decrease in budget deficit financing was offset by increased borrowing to support the State Oil Fund. In June, the Thai baht depreciated compared to major ASEAN currencies, primarily due to an all-year high current account deficit.