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Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa, home to more than 1 billion people, half of whom will be under 25 years old by 2050, is a diverse ...
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Publication Adaptive Social Protection in Southern Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-10-31) World BankThe countries of the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) - Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia, and South Africa are exposed to climatic shocks, especially drought, that pose a continual threat to lives and livelihoods across the subregion. The pandemic has compounded these existing vulnerabilities. Climatic shocks such as these tend to affect the poorest most, exacerbating inequalities and increasing poverty. Food insecurity, which is chronic in the subregion and both a root cause of vulnerability to drought and an outcome of it also increased as a result of impacts from the pandemic. Social safety net programs can help poor and vulnerable households manage the risks they face from shocks, helping to mitigate the impacts on poverty and food insecurity, but their effectiveness can be constrained in several ways. The mobilization of social protection in response to COVID-19 and the challenges that have emerged to that mobilization have strengthened the case for investments in preparedness ahead of future shocks. Adaptive social protection refers to an agenda for preparing social protection systems to improve their response to shocks and to build the resilience of poor and vulnerable households. This report takes stock of ASP in four of the five SACU countries and provides targeted recommendations for each country’s development.Publication Tanzania Country Program Evaluation: Approach Paper(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-10-03) Independent Evaluation GroupThe Country Program Evaluation (CPE) for Tanzania assesses the World Bank Group’s effectiveness and relevance in its work to help Tanzania address its key development challenges. The CPE will encompass two Bank Group strategy periods covering fiscal years (FY)12–16 and FY18–22. The evaluation aims to inform the next Bank Group Country Partnership Framework for Tanzania.Publication Fostering Rwanda Competitiveness and Resilience in the Post-COVID-19 Era(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-10) World Bank GroupRwanda achieved rapid export growth in the decade before the pandemic. In addition, Rwanda has expanded business tourism by promoting the meetings, incentives, conferences/conventions, and events/exhibitions industry. Air transport services was another key export, as a growing number of international airlines are serving Rwanda. However, the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic depressed goods and especially, services exports in 2020. Sustained growth in trade will be a key driver for achieving the government’s goal of becoming an upper middle-income country by 2035. While exports have increased significantly over the past two decades, Rwanda remains a less open country than the middle-income countries the government aspires to match. Regional integration can not only provide the needed economic scale for Rwandan firms to improve their productivity and competitiveness, but can also serve as a vital training ground for learning to export and produce higher-quality goods The aim of this report is to assess policy options to foster international trade, deepen regional integration, and reinforce the government diversification strategy through services. The first part of this report assesses Rwandan trade performances and trade potential in recent years, with a special emphasis on regional trade, trade in services, and the impact of the COVID-19. The second part of the report assesses the main drivers and challenges to international and regional trade in Rwanda including: i) trade policy, with special emphasis on non-tariff barriers and the African Continental Free Trade Agreement; ii) trade facilitation with special emphasis on Rwanda’s trade logistic ambitions; iii) supply side trade constraints at the firm-level; and iv) specific trade challenges to trade in service and data exchanges. The third part of the report discusses potential recommendations.Publication Voluntary Migration in Ethiopia: In Search for Work and Better Opportunities(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-08) Wieser, Christina; Mekonnen, Berhe; Cardona-Sosa, Lina; Abubakar, AishaPeople migrate both within and between countries to improve their lives and the lives of families left back home. Evidence is growing on the significant returns to voluntary internal and international migration. Wage differentials incentivize people to cross borders and work abroad. Despite positive welfare effects, internal migration can also strain destination communities, particularly urban areas, which can contribute to negative social externalities. The benefits of internal and international labor migration, especially increasing household incomes and reducing poverty, are likely to outweigh costs. Policies in Ethiopia have focused on the negative aspects of migration, but perceptions are changing. This report expands the understanding of voluntary economic migration in Ethiopia. This report presents a comprehensive picture on migration in Ethiopia by synthesizing previous research and complementing existing evidence with new analysis using more recent data, including the latest available 2021 labor force and migration survey (LMS). This report is structured around two broad sections, which aim to provide a comprehensive picture of voluntary internal and international migration in Ethiopia, as well as a section highlighting broad policy implications. Chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two provides an overview of migration in Ethiopia and the latest trends on migration. Chapter three discusses migration motives and effects. Chapter four highlights policy directions to maximize the benefit of migration while minimizing the costs.Publication Intra-Household Dynamics and Attitudes toward Vaccines: Experimental and Survey Evidence from Zambia(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-08) Hoy, Christopher; Kanagavel, Rajee; Cameron, CoreyThis paper explores how intra-household dynamics relate to attitudes toward vaccines in low-income countries, by drawing on three novel surveys from Zambia. The first is a nationally representative, in-person survey of over 10,000 households that asked all household members individually about their willingness to get a COVID-19 vaccine. The second and third surveys involved conducting randomized experiments with over 2,000 participants using Facebook and SMS messages. They tested how the impact of information about the benefits from receiving a COVID-19 vaccine on people’s willingness to get vaccinated varied based on intra-household dynamics. These data sources showed that people’s willingness (unwillingness) to get a COVID-19 vaccine was strongly associated with whether other household members were also willing (unwilling). Both experiments found that respondents who received information emphasizing either individual or household benefits from getting a COVID-19 vaccine were more willing to get vaccinated than those in the control group. This information was more potent among respondents who believed other members of their household would not get vaccinated but did not have a larger impact on respondents who were involved in household decision making. There was also some evidence of positive “second-round” effects whereby respondents who received the information treatments were more likely to encourage other household members to get a COVID-19 vaccine. An important implication that flows from this analysis is that although household members tend to have similar attitudes toward vaccines, communicating accurate information about the benefits of getting vaccinated can counter intra-household dynamics that undermine acceptance.Publication The World Bank Group in Chad, Fiscal Years 2010–20: Country Program Evaluation(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022-06-28) Independent Evaluation GroupThis Country Program Evaluation (CPE) assesses the World Bank Group's development effectiveness in Chad over the past decade within a context of high fragility and extreme poverty. The report covers the implementation of the Interim Strategy Note (2010–12) and the Country Partnership Framework (16–20). This CPE draws lessons to inform the design and implementation of the next partnership strategy with Chad. IEG finds that World Bank Group's support to Chad was aligned with government priorities and World Bank diagnostics. Bank Group support helped advance several human development objectives. It especially increased access to health services, primary and secondary education, and social protection in targeted areas as well as gender equality. Notwithstanding the challenges inherent in working in a fragile and conflict-affected situation, the performance of the Bank Group portfolio in Chad was weak. Timely budget support helped stave off an imminent fiscal crisis but did not achieve sustained reform. Few results were achieved in agriculture, infrastructure, and public resource management. Overall, performance was undermined by procurement delays, high turnover of government counterparts, and a lack of continuity in World Bank staff working on Chad. The following three lessons are offered for consideration. First, timely and targeted analytical work is necessary to inform priority setting, policy dialogue, and the design of reforms. Given the prevalence of capacity and absorptive constraints, it is essential to strategically prioritize analytical work to help identify and understand the most binding constraints to development gains and inform efforts to address them. Second, procurement challenges warrant greater attention to address the underlying political and bureaucratic obstacles, which will require a higher-level dialogue with the government. Lastly, although working in Chad is challenging, it is critical to strengthen incentives to attract and retain talent. This is needed to improve continuity of engagement with country authorities and compensate for weak client capacity, including the high turnover of government officials.Publication Creating Markets in Botswana - A Diamond in the Rough: Toward a New Strategy for Diversification and Private Sector Growth - Country Private Sector Diagnostic(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-06) International Finance CorporationDiamonds have been at the center of Botswana’s growth miracle for decade - but the urgency to diversify is stronger than ever. Although Botswana’s economy has undergone transformation over the past decades, the shift has been largely into non-tradable services, with limited gains in employment, income equality, and export diversification. In addition, Botswana’s high vulnerability to climate change, which affects all major sectors of the economy, underscores the need to strengthen Botswana’s response to climate factors as a basis for renewed, sustainable growth. A positive growth outlook and steps taken as part of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis response should give the government new impetus to accelerate reforms. Success in diversifying the economy will depend on the decisive implementation of structural measures to increase private sector participation in nonmineral exports and transformative sectors. The dominant role that the government of Botswana still plays in large parts of the economy, particularly through its footprint as a shareholder in companies in the corporate sector, is a critical constraint that inhibits the entry and success of private sector participants. Gaps in infrastructure, access to finance, and skills are additional key constraints to employment and productivity growth. A coordinated approach to financing entrepreneurship and policies to increase uptake of digital finance can help close the gap. Trade barriers are another key cross-cutting constraint for the private sector, and a greener path for the economy can be unlocked by facilitating improved trade in environmental goods and services (EGS). Three key recommendations for the energy sector are as follows. The first recommendation is the fast tracking of instruments to facilitate investment in energy infrastructure development, including independent power producer (IPP) licensing, and procurement guidelines and processes. The second recommendation is the enhancement of the institutional capacity and governance model of the Botswana Energy Regulatory Authority (BERA). The third recommendation is the development of credit-enhancement and risk-mitigation strategies and supporting instruments to attract and mobilize private sector investment.Publication Psychological Distress One Year into the COVID-19 Pandemic: Results from the Fifth Round of the Household High-Frequency Monitoring Survey (HFS) in Sudan(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-06) Farfán, Gabriela; Gayoso de Ervin, Lyliana; Osman, Eiman; Aziz, Azza Ahmed AbdelThe outbreak of COVID-19 coincided with a period of significant economic, social, and political challenges in Sudan. The most significant of these were related to the recent establishment of a transitional government in August 2019 after the fall of the ruling regime due to the revolution that started in December 2018 and succeeded in toppling the government in April 2019. But the optimism around the political developments were accompanied by marked fluctuations in the economy that were further exacerbated by the pandemic. Between March 2020 (the first wave of the pandemic) and June 2021 (the time of this survey) inflation went from 81.64 percent to 412.75 percent, and the Sudanese pound severely depreciated. While the government introduced a package of reforms aiming at restoring macro-economic stability, soaring commodity prices and shortages of power and fuel, are some of the economic challenges that fueled social and political unrest during this period. The first COVID-19 case in Sudan was confirmed on March 13 of 2020, and soon after, cases started to increase. As in many developing countries, evidence suggests that COVID-19 exposure was significantly more prevalent than that indicated by officially reported cases. The speed of propagation of the coronavirus and the uncertainty around how to prevent it led to the implementation of different preventive and control measures in the first quarter of 2020, including restrictions on activities and the promotion of preventative health measures. 3,4 The government implemented two lockdowns aiming to restrict mobility. The first lockdown implemented from March to June 2020 was strict. Initially it only allowed activity until 10am, and it gradually extended to 1pm and eventually to 6pm. The second lockdown (September - December) was more lax. Furthermore, adherence to the timeframes set by the government was highly correlated with socio-economic status. Middle-class segments of Sudanese society were able to comply more readily than their less economically privileged counterparts. As a result, only the major thoroughfares were empty. In contrast, gatherings, public prayers, social life, and market congregations were largely maintained in neighborhoods of lower socioeconomic status.Publication Sierra Leone Economic Update 2022: Leveraging SME Financing and Digitization for Inclusive Growth(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-05-31) World BankThe Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has set back the economy and fiscal balances of Sierra Leone, which are now further impacted by the war in Ukraine. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth turned negative in 2020, while the government’s efforts to reduce the fiscal deficit were undermined by the need for emergency spending. Just when the economy began to recover, the war in Ukraine caused new disruption through sharply higher food and fuel prices. Thus, the authorities face both the short-term challenge of coping with these price shocks while recovering from the pandemic, and the medium-term challenge of renewing fiscal consolidation and promoting higher economic growth. Public finances have deteriorated since the onset of COVID-19. Inflationary pressures have accelerated since mid-2021, driven first by the post-pandemic rebound in consumption, and subsequently by global supply chain disruptions since the onset of the Ukraine war, and depreciation pressures on the Leone. Small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) can be engines of economic growth and job creation,under the right circumstances. Currently, in Sierra Leone, SMEs (along with micro-enterprises) provide livelihoods to approximately 70 percent of the population and represent over 90 percent of the domestic private sector. Access to finance for SMEs and digital finance are priorities for the government. Digital financial services (DFS) are not diversified, and mobile money remains the main driver. The payments infrastructure including the RTGS, ACH and securities settlement system needs to be upgraded. Sierra Leone lacks a modern credit reporting system. Key recommendations for greater SME access to finance are presented in this report.Publication Creating Markets in Mali: Mobilizing the Private Sector for Economic Resilience and Recovery - Country Private Sector Diagnostic(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-04) International Finance CorporationUntil the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (SARS-CoV2) COVID-19 pandemic and despite the deteriorating security situation, Mali’s economic growth averaged five percent since 2014, on par with its long-term potential. Mali’s fragile state status has also taken a toll on economic activity and social welfare by reducing access to markets, threatening food security, and degrading human capital indicators. With an increasing debt burden resulting in limited fiscal space to address persistent security risks and to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, the government of Mali is compelled to refocus the role of the state and unleash the potential of the private sector to boost productivity growth, to diversify the economy away from a narrow base, and to ensure inclusive economic and social welfare for all Malians. The growth model will be readdressed around energizing investment, creating resilient markets, and building back better for a more resilient recovery via (a) improving the business environment; (b) crowding-in private participation in the delivery of infrastructure and certain public services; (c) ensuring that remaining state-owned enterprises and private firms compete on equal terms - that is, upholding competitive neutrality principles; (d) expanding public-private partnerships in key sectors, through transparent and competitive procurement; and (e) leveraging digital solutions by further enhancing digital infrastructure that would, in turn, increase the uptake of digital financial services and digital platforms for key sectors of the economy, such as agriculture, and digitize government services (e-government).