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Adaptive Safety Nets for Rural Africa: Drought-Sensitive Targeting with Sparse Data
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-07) Baez, Javier E.; Kshirsagar, Varun; Skoufias, Emmanuel
This paper combines remote-sensed data and individual child, mother, and household-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for 5 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa to design a prototype drought-contingent targeting framework for use in scarce-data contexts. To accomplish this, the paper: (i) develops simple and easy-to-communicate measures of drought shocks; (ii) shows that droughts have a large impact on child stunting in these five countries, comparable, in size, to the effects of mother’s illiteracy or a fall to a lower wealth quintile; and (iii) shows that, in this context, decision trees and regressions predict stunting as accurately as complex machine learning methods that are not interpretable.2 Taken together, the analysis lends support to the idea that a data-driven approach may contribute to the design of a transparent and easy-to-use drought-contingent targeting framework
How is the COVID-19 Crisis Affecting Nitrogen Dioxide Emissions in Sub-Saharan Africa?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-05) Masaki, Takaaki; Nakamura, Shohei; Newhouse, David
Daily estimates of Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2)—one of a group of pollutant gases that derive from human activity, primarily combustion—can provide a useful, albeit "noisy", real-time proxy measure of how COVID-19 has affected economic activity. To examine how the crisis affects NO2 levels in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), we calculated mean daily NO2 tropospheric estimates for 43 regions that contain either national capitals or large urban areas for the period July 2018 to April 2020. We found that emissions reductions in April were sizeable, larger in more developed areas, and large in many but not all of the countries that implemented national lockdowns. Overall, the data suggest that NO2 readings contain useful information to help track the reduction in motorized transport, and possibly overall economic activity, in urban, developed areas.
Who Wins and Who Loses from Staple Food Price Spikes?: Welfare Implications for Mozambique
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06) Baez, Javier E.; Caruso, German; Pullabhotla, Hemant
Changes in food prices – triggered frequently by natural disasters, macroeconomic shocks or regional market disruptions– can lead to large household welfare effects. At over 60 and 40 percent, food budget shares remain high in rural and urban Mozambique, respectively. Furthermore, nearly 70 percent of the population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods. To determine the net impact of food price changes on consumption and poverty, we performed incidence analysis combining household and farmer survey data with disaggregated, market-level price data on major staples (maize, rice, and cassava). Overall, we find evidence for a large net negative welfare effect of price rises in rural areas, and a small, negative effect in the urban areas. For instance, A 10 percent increase in maize prices is associated with an average reduction of 1.2 percent in consumption per capita in rural areas and 0.2 percent in urban areas. Not all households are affected equally. Overall, the negative impacts are larger for the bottom half of the distribution. As a result, the sharp food price spike observed in 2016–17 may have translated into a poverty increase of 4-6 percentage points, with some of the poorest provinces bearing much of the brunt. These findings underscore the importance of improving the functioning of agricultural input and output markets, developing early food security warning systems, and increasing the availability of rapidly scalable safety nets.
Extreme Weather and Poverty Risk: Evidence from Multiple Shocks in Mozambique
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-03) Baez, Javier E.; Caruso, German; Niu, Chiyu
Thanks to strong economic growth over the last two decades, poverty in Mozambique has decreased and the average household is now more likely to access basic education, health, and housing. Yet, the country is still ravaged by intense and frequent weather disasters. To determine the scale and nature of the impacts of these shocks, this paper analyzes the vulnerability of rural livelihoods across three different extreme weather events: droughts, floods and cyclones. The study finds that per capita food and non-food consumption and asset ownership are reduced among households affected by any of the three weather shocks. Their children are less likely to attend school, have a higher probability of falling sick and show higher engagement in paid and unpaid work. What’s more, staple food prices are disrupted and remain affected nearly a year after the disaster. Helping households confront these events requires comprehensive risk management policies, including making agriculture more resilient to weather, improving the functioning of credit and insurance markets, facilitating economic diversification and market access, and increasing the availability of flexible safety nets – all before the shocks occur.