Miscellaneous Knowledge Notes

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    Monitoring COVID-19 Impacts on Households in Sudan: Results from a Panel Household High-Frequency Phone Survey
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-06) Osman, Eiman ; Rahasimbelonirina, Ando ; Etang, Alvin
    This brief focuses on the household survey component of the High-Frequency Phone Survey of Households (HFS). The sampling methodology adopted for the implementation of the household survey is probabilistic, and the sampling frame is provided by a compilation of a list of phone numbers collected during the implementation of various projects/surveys during the last few years at the household level across the country. The sample is representative of the 18 states of Sudan. This brief summarizes the main results of the core questions in the completed six rounds of the Sudan HFS of the same households (i.e., a panel survey). Results of the firm survey will be reported in a separate report.
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    Psychological Distress One Year into the COVID-19 Pandemic: Results from the Fifth Round of the Household High-Frequency Monitoring Survey (HFS) in Sudan
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-06) Farfán, Gabriela ; Gayoso de Ervin, Lyliana ; Osman, Eiman ; Aziz, Azza Ahmed Abdel
    The outbreak of COVID-19 coincided with a period of significant economic, social, and political challenges in Sudan. The most significant of these were related to the recent establishment of a transitional government in August 2019 after the fall of the ruling regime due to the revolution that started in December 2018 and succeeded in toppling the government in April 2019. But the optimism around the political developments were accompanied by marked fluctuations in the economy that were further exacerbated by the pandemic. Between March 2020 (the first wave of the pandemic) and June 2021 (the time of this survey) inflation went from 81.64 percent to 412.75 percent, and the Sudanese pound severely depreciated. While the government introduced a package of reforms aiming at restoring macro-economic stability, soaring commodity prices and shortages of power and fuel, are some of the economic challenges that fueled social and political unrest during this period. The first COVID-19 case in Sudan was confirmed on March 13 of 2020, and soon after, cases started to increase. As in many developing countries, evidence suggests that COVID-19 exposure was significantly more prevalent than that indicated by officially reported cases. The speed of propagation of the coronavirus and the uncertainty around how to prevent it led to the implementation of different preventive and control measures in the first quarter of 2020, including restrictions on activities and the promotion of preventative health measures. 3,4 The government implemented two lockdowns aiming to restrict mobility. The first lockdown implemented from March to June 2020 was strict. Initially it only allowed activity until 10am, and it gradually extended to 1pm and eventually to 6pm. The second lockdown (September - December) was more lax. Furthermore, adherence to the timeframes set by the government was highly correlated with socio-economic status. Middle-class segments of Sudanese society were able to comply more readily than their less economically privileged counterparts. As a result, only the major thoroughfares were empty. In contrast, gatherings, public prayers, social life, and market congregations were largely maintained in neighborhoods of lower socioeconomic status.
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    A Case Study on How Allocative Efficiency Analysis Supported by Mathematical Modelling Changed HIV Investment in Sudan
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-11) World Bank
    This brief presents a real-life example of how a group of government decision-makers, programme managers, researchers and development partners worked together to improve the allocation of HIV resources in Sudan and thereby better address the HIV objectives that the country strives to achieve. The initial modelling analysis showed that by reallocating funds towards antiretroviral treatment (ART) and prevention programmes in Sudan, 37 percent of new HIV infections could be averted with the same amount of funding. These allocations combined with additional technical efficiency gains would allow for increasing ART coverage from 6 percent in 2013 to 34 percent in 2017, and more than double programme coverage for key populations. The reallocations in the 2015 to 2017 HIV budget for the national response are projected to avert an additional 3,200 new infections and 1,100 deaths in these three years compared to initially planned allocations.The reallocations were achieved through a rigorous HIV allocative efficiency analysis and evidence-informed policy process, conducted by a multi-disciplinary team of national and international partners working for the common goal to make Sudan’s HIV response more manageable and sustainable. The case study discusses process and outcomes of this effort. It also offers some reflections on the application of mathematical modelling to strengthening decision-making of finite HIV resources, and some lessons learned about how to go ‘beyond modelling’ to application of modelled allocative efficiency improvements to improving actual budget allocations for better health outcomes.