Miscellaneous Knowledge Notes
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Publication
Drivers of Public Debt in East Asia and Pacific Economies
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-12-16)Public debt in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) economies has increased markedly since the recession in 2020 induced by COVID-19 pandemic. This brief uses standard debt dynamic accounting decomposition to quantify the main drivers of debt accumulation in developing EAP countries since 2000. In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, larger primary deficits have been the main drivers of the increase in the ratio of public debt to GDP in most developing EAP economies. While strong GDP growth and, to a certain extent, inflation have helped deflate public-debt-to-GDP ratios during the past two decades, they have, on average, been more muted since the COVID-19 shock. -
Publication
The Road Not Taken?: Responding to the Energy Price Shock in East Asia
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11-17)Several countries in East Asia have increased fossil fuel subsidies to keep consumer prices lower than currently high international prices. These subsidies are discouraging the shift in consumption away from fossil fuels, while high prices are encouraging investment in new fossil fuel infrastructure. Providing income transfers instead of price subsidies would encourage consumption of cleaner alternatives, while softening the welfare loss. And subsidizing investment in renewables would avert the risk of being locked in to fossil fuels. The total cost need not be higher than that of fossil fuel subsidies. -
Publication
Resource Misallocation and Distortions: Some Evidence from East Asia
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11-03)Developing East Asia has undergone a dramatic transformation over the past few decades thanks to a combination of policies that fostered outward-oriented and labor-intensive growth, investments in basic human capital, and sound economic governance. However, slowing growth and shifting patterns in global trade, rapid technological change, and evolving country circumstances present challenges to sustaining past productivity growth and ensuring future growth. Thus, understanding the extent of misallocation and its drivers is an important step toward identifying the types of policies that can improve domestic productivity and the competitiveness of firms. This Research and Policy Brief reviews the evidence for East Asian countries and discusses the limitations of current approaches to measuring misallocation. -
Publication
Firms’ Recovery from COVID-19 in Malaysia: Results from the 5th Round of COVID-19 Business Pulse Survey
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-08)The survey implemented in August 2022 shows that economic recovery is taking root in Malaysia as evidenced by the trends in operating hours, sales, and employment. The outlook of firms is positive and with more than 38 percent of firms relative to 34 percent of firms in R4 business pulse survey (BPS) expecting higher sales for Q4 2022. With international borders being opened, firms’ recovery has accelerated across regions and firm sizes. However, this brings about new challenges for firms such as shortages of labor, rising input costs, and increasing market competition. -
Publication
Firms’ Recovery from COVID-19 in Malaysia: Results from the 4th Round of COVID-19 Business Pulse Survey
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-02-28)The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) business pulse survey (BPS) is a rapid survey designed to measure the various channels of impact of COVID-19 on firms, firm adjustment strategies, and public policy responses. The World Bank, in collaboration with a private survey company, conducted the 4th round of the Malaysia BPS in February to March 2022, following the 1st round in October 2020, 2nd round in Mid-January to February 2021, and 3rd round in July 2021. Firms were sampled randomly from an online business panel database, which consists of 100,000+ companies in all sectors and sizes, across Peninsular and East Malaysia. A minimum sample size was obtained for sectors that are important to Malaysia’s economy and are sensitive to the COVID-19 crisis (export-oriented activities: electronics, automotive, tourism related activities) while preserving the sectoral shares in the sampling frame. The survey was conducted online and yielded 1,500 responses from respondents in senior management positions at their company (i.e. owners, C-suite or Director level). -
Publication
Why Central Bank Independence Matters
(World Bank, Malaysia, 2021-11-30)Deep economic crises - the global financial crisis and the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic - have put some strains on and rekindled an older debate about the costs and benefits of central bank Independence. Central banks have been accorded more independence since the 1970s, which has helped bring down and keep inflation low and reduced the risk of fiscal crises. However, as their interventions in the economy with unconventional policies expand further beyond their original mandate, especially those pertaining to financial stability, critics have called for more oversight of their activities. That is because some of the central banks’ newfound responsibilities such as financial stability does not have a precise and unambiguous target or measure, making accountability difficult. The evidence in support of central bank independence remains strong, as highlighted in this brief. However, in light of the expansion of central banks’ power, reforms should aim to institute oversight of the newfound powers. -
Publication
Policy Actions to Increase the Supply of COVID-19 Vaccines in the Short Term
(World Bank, Malaysia, 2021-08-16)Vaccination rates in developing countries lag those in developed countries by a huge margin. This Research & Policy Brief identifies and quantifies the impact of six policy and regulatory actions that could increase vaccine supply to developing countries before the end of 2021. The actions focus on measures to accelerate regulatory approvals, optimize production capacity across firms, reconfigure prioritization of low-risk groups, and adjust generous dosage thresholds. Together these actions could yield enough supply to reach the interim target to vaccinate at least 40 percent of the population of every country by the end of 2021, as a means to vaccinate 60 percent of global population by mid-2022, thereby helping to end the pandemic earlier, reducing uncertainty and raising growth. -
Publication
Does Elderly Employment Reduce Job Opportunities for Youth?
(World Bank, Malaysia, 2021-08-09)The aging of populations around the world and the associated fall in the working age population are expected to adversely affect countries’ GDP growth in coming decades. These demographic shifts will also place fiscal pressure on governments, given the need either to finance pension systems or to support the most vulnerable in retirement. Extending working lives is imperative but often politically challenging, due to the widespread belief that extending employment for older workers will limit employment opportunities for youth. Global empirical evidence summarized in this brief, as well as original analysis, does not support this belief, and in fact suggests that elderly employment has positive effects on youth employment, on the well-being of older workers, and on economies and societies. There is much to gain in creating a supportive regulatory environment to harness the economic potential of older workers by eliminating age-biased hiring practices, allowing for flexible working conditions, and providing equal opportunities for upskilling and reskilling. -
Publication
Impacts of COVID-19 on Firms in Malaysia: Results from the 3rd Round of COVID-19 Business Pulse Survey
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-07)The COVID-19 Business Pulse Survey (BPS) is a rapid survey designed to measure the various channels of impact of COVID-19 on firms, firm adjustment strategies, and public policy responses. The World Bank, in collaboration with a private survey company, conducted the 3rd round of survey in July 2021, following the 1st round in October 2020 and 2nd round of the Malaysia BPS in Mid-January to February 2021. Firms were sampled randomly from an online business panel database, which consists of 100,000+ companies in all sectors and sizes, across Peninsular and East Malaysia. A minimum sample size was obtained for sectors that are important to Malaysia’s economy and are sensitive to the COVID-19 crisis (export-oriented activities: electronics, automotive, tourism related activities) while preserving the sectoral shares in the sampling frame. The survey was conducted online and yielded 1,500 responses from respondents in senior management positions at their company (i.e. owners, C-suite or Director level). -
Publication
Impacts of COVID-19 on Firms in Malaysia: Results from the 2nd Round of COVID-19 Business Pulse Survey
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06-24)The re-imposition of the Conditional Movement Control Order during mid-October 2020 and the upgrade to a stricter lockdown to Movement Control Order in January 2021 has substantially weakened the recovery momentum highlighted in Round 1 of Business Pulse Survey (early October 2020). To adapt to the latest lockdown, the majority of firms responded by remaining partially open in operations. Employment adjustments such as reducing work hours remain the most common method by firms. Supply chain disruptions remain a major problem in the market. Adoption of digital technologies remains the most popular choice for adjustment by firms, with sales and marketing functions topping the list of digital adoption.