Miscellaneous Knowledge Notes

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Vietnam Macro Monitoring

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-09-27) World Bank

This brief discusses the economic development of Vietnam for August 2023. While the export slump may have bottomed out, and domestic consumption remained resilient, credit growth continued to be slow, reflecting weak private domestic investment and investors’ confidence. Recent upward movements in global energy prices warrants close monitoring of CPI inflation. This may also prevent SBV from loosening monetary policy further. The continuation of tight global financial conditions warrants flexible FX management to accommodate external conditions. Further acceleration of public investment disbursement could support aggregate demand and economic growth in the short run while focusing on priority green and resilient infrastructure and human capital investments will help bolster long term economic development.
Philippines Monthly Economic Developments, August 2023

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-08-22) World Bank

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth moderated to 4.3 percent in Q2 2023 owing to a slowdown in domestic and external demand. Manufacturing and services continued to weaken in June, although leading indicators suggest a stronger expansion in July. External demand for goods exports softened in June amid slowing global activity, while soft domestic demand led to a contraction in goods imports. The fiscal deficit narrowed in Q2 2023, as public spending declined due to ongoing fiscal consolidation and delays in budget execution. Labor market conditions remained strong, despite an uptick in unemployment and underemployment.
Assessment and Options Analysis of Climate and Nature Financing Instruments and Opportunities: Summary Note on Financing for Climate and Nature

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-08-17) World Bank

Despite increasing recognition of the material impact of nature degradation, the global financing gap for climate and nature investments is significant and growing. The Paulson Institute estimated in 2020 that the biodiversity financing gap at an average of US$711 billion per year. Government leaders and private enterprises must accelerate and scale financial resource mobilization strategies to close this gap. However, at a national level, many developing countries have limited market access and lack the fiscal space to mobilize financing at the scale required to avoid the severe negative impacts of biodiversity loss, nature degradation, and reduced ecosystem services. This can precipitate countries into a vicious circle, whereby delayed investment at scale exposes them to the risk of ecosystems collapse. These systems also provide essential climate benefits in terms of carbon sinks and adaptation buffers against severe climate impacts (e.g., floods, droughts, storms). These natural assets underpin economic growth of developing countries but are currently undervalued and underinvested. Given the difficulty of estimating the timing, progression, and extent of these impacts and their global public good (GPG) nature, other more immediate or visible needs tend to be prioritized. However, when nature-related risks materialize, economic activity is likely to contract, further reducing fiscal space, increasing a country’s borrowing costs, and delaying investments.
Supporting Artisanal and Small-scale Mining Communities During the COVID-19 Pandemic

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-08-01) World Bank

In 2020, the World Bank projected that the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic could push more than hundred million people into extreme poverty. The estimated forty-five million people around the world working in artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) were particularly vulnerable because of the informal, often precarious nature of their working conditions and lack of access to social safety nets. At the height of the initial lockdown, as mineral prices dropped and mining sites closed, artisanal and small-scale miners, their families, and their communities suffered large declines in income and rising food insecurity. Without intervention, they were at risk of sliding into poverty. At the same time, there was concern that gains made over several decades to formalize the sector would be eroded, particularly where community tensions were rising. To address these risks, the World Bank took early action. In May 2020, the extractives global programmatic support (EGPS) trust fund initiated a rapid global survey to identify miners’ needs and then used the results to mobilize an emergency response window that raised 6.6 million in support to ASM communities in 22 countries. This report describes the EGPS emergency response window for ASM Communities Impacted by COVID-19, what it achieved, and what the World Bank has identified as priority areas for action in ASM communities going forward.
The West Africa Unique Identification for Regional Integration and Inclusion (WURI) Program: Unique Identifiers to Enable Access to Human Development Services

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-07-31) World Bank

Access to basic human development programs in West Africa is particularly low. Individually, the sub-region’s countries perform poorly on the Human Capital Index (HCI). It is the second-lowest African region in rank for social safety net coverage. By contrast, the subregion has the second highest transaction value of mobile money on the continent. This case study examines the West Africa Unique Identification for Regional Integration and Inclusion (WURI) Program, which aims to confront this challenge head-on. In 2022, the program was working in six countries across two phases in partnership with the governments, and with the ECOWAS Commission.
Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor, July 2023

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-07-24) World Bank

The economy maintained moderate expansion, driven by private consumption and tourism. Declining inflation alleviated pressure on living costs and supported private consumption. However, goods exports as well as manufacturing production and investment contracted due to weak external demand. Public debt remained stable;a decrease in budget deficit financing was offset by increased borrowing to support the State Oil Fund. In June, the Thai baht depreciated compared to major ASEAN currencies, primarily due to an all-year high current account deficit.
Ukraine - Human Development Update, February 2023

(Washington, DC, 2023-04-10) World Bank

The full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has resulted in tens of thousands of civilian casualties, internal displacement of millions of people, widespread destruction of infrastructure, and disruption of services that are essential to human capital formation and protection. This Ukraine Human Development Update summarizes the cumulative effects of the war, highlights recent government responses, and provides an overview of World Bank support.
Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor: 21 March 2023

(Washington, DC, 2023-03-21) World Bank

The economy resumed moderate expansion as private consumption and tourism improved at the beginning of 2023, after a disappointing Q4 outturn. However, lingering soft global demand continued to weigh on goods exports, manufacturing, and private investment. Inflation slowed amid easing global energy prices but remained above the Bank of Thailand’s target range of 1-3 percent. As a result, authorities extended energy-related subsidies while maintaining monetary policy normalization. The Thai baht depreciated the most among major ASEAN currencies in February as the current account turned deficit due to slowing export of goods while substantial portfolio flows exited the equity and bond markets.
Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor: February 2023

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-03-14) World Bank

Growth decelerated more than expected to 1.4 percent in Q4 2022 amid the global economic slowdown. Goods trade contracted while manufacturing production and investment weakened. However, robust private consumption and tourism recovery continued to strengthen the outlook. Headline inflation declined but the second-round impact on domestic prices remained. This prompted the Bank of Thailand to continue monetary policy normalization and the government to extend energy-related subsidies. The current account balance returned to surplus in Q4 2022 on the back of substantially improved tourism receipts, supporting the Thai baht.
Public Services and COVID-19 - Reflections from the Pacific: Sustainable Wage Bills

(Washington, DC, 2022-12) World Bank

The purpose of this note is to identify good practice in public sector management drawn from Pacific Island public service experiences of navigating the COVID-19 pandemic. These experiences were brought together through a World Bank engagement with Pacific Island countries in 2021 and 2022. The engagement identified five core aspects of Pacific Island public service management in response to COVID-19: trust, preparation, adaptable system settings, adaptable operating models, and sustainable wage bills. This first note in the series of five focuses on the importance of trust. The primary audience is public service leaders in Pacific Islands. The note will also be of interest to anyone working on designing and leading public sector management systems through rapid change, uncertainty and crises.