Miscellaneous Knowledge Notes
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Publication
Piloting a Machine Learning-Based Job-Matching Algorithm: Summary of Results from Pomerania
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-11-20)The objective of this note is to present and discuss the findings of piloting a task-based job matching tool developed by the World Bank and implemented in partnership with the Regional Labor Office of Pomerania, Poland. The aim of the pilot was to assess whether simple ML-based tools could contribute to improve the efficiency of PES delivery and job-seeking behaviors compared to rule-based, knowledge-driven approaches. By combining labor demand data from local occupational barometers and the descriptions of tasks in the national taxonomy of occupations, the tool provides jobseekers a menu of potential jobs available in the local labor markets that match the tasks performed in previous work experiences. Results show that jobseekers were satisfied with the proposed occupations resulting from the tool (as beyond their thinking) and had the intention to expand job search efforts, though job-seeking behaviors could not be monitored. Career advisers recognized that the lack of information on jobseekers’ education, skills, and preferences limited the efficiency of the proposed job matches. -
Publication
Case Studies of Successful Reforms to Address the Challenges of Financing Education Systems Effectively: Increasing the Adequacy of Education Finance through Private Sector Resource Mobilization - The Case of Côte d’Ivoire
(Washington, DC, 2023-11-20)Many low, and middle-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa face an education financing crisis. Exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, rapid improvements in access place severe pressure on the adequacy of public education expenditure, with average per-student public expenditure in the region being less than one-tenth that in Europe and Central Asia (World Bank, 2022). Some countries have successfully mobilized private sector finance to support education beyond the financing provided by government. These efforts have been particularly common in technical and vocational education and training (TVET), where countries including Tanzania and Zambia have introduced skills levies on businesses, which are channeled into dedicated funds to support TVET. However, such efforts are much rarer in basic education, which typically relies on conventional taxation, public debt, and development assistance for funding. This case study presents the example of Côte d’Ivoire, where a partnership between the government, private foundations, and the cocoa industry has mobilized significant amounts of finance to support the provision of basic education in cocoa-growing communities. -
Publication
Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor: 27 October, 2023
(Washington, DC, 2023-11-13)The economy continued its moderate expansion, driven by private consumption and improving goods exports. However, the tourism recovery decelerated. Inflation remained significantly below peers; raw food prices fell and energy subsidies contained pressure on living costs. The planned fiscal stimulus measures will provide a short-term boost to growth but delay ongoing fiscal consolidation. The Bank of Thailand unexpectedly raised its policy rate to 2.50 percent. In September, the Thai baht depreciated against major trading partners. -
Publication
Vietnam Macro Monitoring
(Washington, DC, 2023-10-31)This brief discusses the economic development of Vietnam for September 2023. While economic growth picked up in Q3-2023 thanks to a gradual recovery of the exports, domestic consumption remained subdued and credit growth continued to be slow reflecting weak private domestic investment and investors’ confidence. A sharp upward trend in headline inflation continues to warrant close watch. Continued efforts to implement public investment could support aggregate demand and economic growth in the short run. A strategic and well-prepared investment pipeline for 2024 and the next Medium-Term Investment Plan (MTIP) with a focus on green, resilient, and regional infrastructure will help bolster long term economic development. Further improving the business environment and stepping up investment in human capital would help the country: attract high-tech and high-value-addition FDI and boost productivity in the long run. -
Publication
Distributional Impacts of Brazil’s Tax Reform: scenarios regarding Cesta Básica exemption
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-10-31)A consumption tax reform in Brazil has been recently approved by the House of Representatives, providing a full tax exemption for the yet undefined ‘National Basic Basket’ of goods (cesta basica nacional), alongside a cashback scheme that is yet to be determined. This note simulates the distributional impacts of different fiscally neutral scenarios of reduced rates and exemptions. The authors show that the exemption of taxes for food and personal care goods (such as those suggested by Law 10,925) would benefit the most vulnerable. Nonetheless, overall expenditures on certain items that are being considered for inclusion in the cesta are relatively concentrated on households in the top decile of the income distribution. Thus, a blanket exemption on Cesta Basica items may benefit the richest more in absolute terms. If the list of items in the exempted Cesta Basica is shortened and the equivalent resources of the potential forgone revenues are returned into a targeted cashback scheme, a far less regressive indirect tax system could be achieved. -
Publication
G2PX in Nigeria: Piloting Rapid Response for the Urban Informal
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-10-23)To provide assistance related to COVID-19 and to inform future shock response, Nigeria piloted digital delivery of a cash transfer program geared toward reaching the urban informal. The pilot made use of mobile technology and direct deposit, but it relied on in-person site visits and struggled to make full use of available data, hindering implementation speed. Low account penetration among informal populations and inadequate access points, among other issues plaguing the financial ecosystem, added to sluggish rollouts during pilots. While the program evolved significantly over time, incorporating the lessons from the pilots, the lack of monitoring and evaluation data prevent a full understanding of its ultimate effectiveness. -
Publication
Vietnam Macro Monitoring
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-09-27)This brief discusses the economic development of Vietnam for August 2023. While the export slump may have bottomed out, and domestic consumption remained resilient, credit growth continued to be slow, reflecting weak private domestic investment and investors’ confidence. Recent upward movements in global energy prices warrants close monitoring of CPI inflation. This may also prevent SBV from loosening monetary policy further. The continuation of tight global financial conditions warrants flexible FX management to accommodate external conditions. Further acceleration of public investment disbursement could support aggregate demand and economic growth in the short run while focusing on priority green and resilient infrastructure and human capital investments will help bolster long term economic development. -
Publication
On the Construction of the World Bank’s Subnational Poverty and Inequality Databases: Documentation
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-09-26)In many countries, large differences in poverty persist at the subnational level. In addition, global challenges such as climate change, fragility, economic crises, and food insecurity are often trans-border issues that pose significant risks for poverty reduction both across and within countries. Traditional poverty measures are generally presented at the national level, potentially obscuring local and regional variations of poverty and inequality. To overcome these challenges, this note describes the construction of two databases designed to provide a more granular perspective on poverty. The Subnational Poverty and Inequality Database (SPID) presents direct survey estimates of poverty and inequality from nationally representative household surveys over time. The Global Subnational Atlas of Poverty (GSAP) presents poverty estimates of survey-representative administrative areas projected to a common year. Both databases use the same underlying household survey data used by the World Bank to monitor global poverty. -
Publication
Philippines Monthly Economic Developments, August 2023
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-08-22)Gross domestic product (GDP) growth moderated to 4.3 percent in Q2 2023 owing to a slowdown in domestic and external demand. Manufacturing and services continued to weaken in June, although leading indicators suggest a stronger expansion in July. External demand for goods exports softened in June amid slowing global activity, while soft domestic demand led to a contraction in goods imports. The fiscal deficit narrowed in Q2 2023, as public spending declined due to ongoing fiscal consolidation and delays in budget execution. Labor market conditions remained strong, despite an uptick in unemployment and underemployment. -
Publication
Assessment and Options Analysis of Climate and Nature Financing Instruments and Opportunities: Summary Note on Financing for Climate and Nature
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-08-17)Despite increasing recognition of the material impact of nature degradation, the global financing gap for climate and nature investments is significant and growing. The Paulson Institute estimated in 2020 that the biodiversity financing gap at an average of US$711 billion per year. Government leaders and private enterprises must accelerate and scale financial resource mobilization strategies to close this gap. However, at a national level, many developing countries have limited market access and lack the fiscal space to mobilize financing at the scale required to avoid the severe negative impacts of biodiversity loss, nature degradation, and reduced ecosystem services. This can precipitate countries into a vicious circle, whereby delayed investment at scale exposes them to the risk of ecosystems collapse. These systems also provide essential climate benefits in terms of carbon sinks and adaptation buffers against severe climate impacts (e.g., floods, droughts, storms). These natural assets underpin economic growth of developing countries but are currently undervalued and underinvested. Given the difficulty of estimating the timing, progression, and extent of these impacts and their global public good (GPG) nature, other more immediate or visible needs tend to be prioritized. However, when nature-related risks materialize, economic activity is likely to contract, further reducing fiscal space, increasing a country’s borrowing costs, and delaying investments.