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PublicationThe Mexican Tourism Sector as a Driver of Shared Growth(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-11-18) Aguilera, Nelly; Velázquez, César; Montesinos, AlejandroThe goal of this paper is to estimate (with the data available) the impact of tourism as a factor of shared growth at the local or municipal level in Mexico. This country provides an excellent research example due to its socioeconomic characteristics, the fact that tourism is an important economic activity and that, in spite of not having an ideal database to prove empirically that tourism is associated to shared growth, there are reliable databases that combined may provide insightful information. The main findings are: first, tourist destinations in general have better economic conditions that neighbor communities. Second, in general we find that growth in tourism (growth in tourism related employment) is associated to more employment, to lower percentage of population working in social security, and to better figures in the Human Development Index (HDI). It has also been found that growth in maquila and oil industries do not present these positive impacts. PublicationTransport Development Priorities in Papua and West Papua(World Bank, 2009-10-01) World BankThe province of Papua of the Republic of Indonesia was provided special autonomy under law 21-2001 in recognition of the fact that 'the management and use of the natural wealth of Tanah Papua has not yet been optimally utilized to enhance the living standard of the natives, causing a deep gap between the Papua province and the other regions, and violations of the basic rights of the Papuan people.' The goal of special autonomy was to help Papua and Papuans catch up to the rest of Indonesia in terms of living standards and opportunities. Yet, now almost a decade later, and after the split into two provinces: Papua and West Papua, progress toward this goal has been slow. In recognition of this, the Indonesian central government issued presidential instruction 5-2007 on the acceleration of development of Papua and West Papua instructing all relevant technical ministries to devote special attention to the two provinces and to coordinate their programs with the governors of both provinces. Transport is a key piece of the development puzzle and is a high priority for all levels of government in Papua and West Papua. Yet, despite this, and large amounts of investment channeled toward the sector, the people of Papua and West Papua are not receiving substantially better transportation services than they were before special autonomy. This report aims to set out a set of priorities that transport development must follow in Papua and West Papua if investments are to be productive and remain useful for their entire design life. PublicationOperational Risk Assessment (ORA) for Local Government Engineering Department (LGED) in Bangladesh : Final Implementation Plan(Washington, DC, 2009-10) World BankIn April, 2008 the World Bank and the Local Government Engineering Department (LGED) commenced a study with the following objectives: (i) to assess fiduciary and operational risks in LGED's management of projects, assets and other resources, and in the Local Government Division (LGD), Ministry Of Local Government, Rural Development and Cooperatives' oversight function; (ii) to evaluate the efficacy of external review of decision-making by LGED and the LGD; and (iii) to identify options for future monitoring of operational risks in LGED and the LGD, and (iv) to prioritize options which are realistic and available to effectively minimize the major operational risks identified. This report addresses the last of these objectives. It is based on discussions in Dhaka 14-20 March with senior LGED staff the Operational Risk Assessment (ORA) team leader, and follow-up work by LGED staff through March 30. The report identifies and categorizes three different types of risks. The first type includes risks that LGED has the authority to take the necessary actions to address, with support from development partners and routine budgetary spending and staffing authorizations needed from other agencies. The second type includes risks that can only be addressed by LGED in partnership with one or more other organizations. In other words, it can initiate some parts, but will also need key partners to make necessary decisions to carry out the recommended actions. Although initial work on these can begin right away, successful implementation is expected to take longer than addressing the first type of risks. The third type includes risks that stem from the external environment in which LGED operates. LGED cannot take any direct action to address them. Yet, based on a full understanding of the nature of the risk, LGED may be able to take indirect actions to mitigate the relevant operational and fiduciary risks to LGED's operations and reputation. These are more complex than the first two types, and may take more time to address. Once finalized, the report will be presented and discussed at the ORA Dissemination Workshop tentatively scheduled for July, 2009, with participants from Government, civil society, and international partner organizations. Following approval by the Local Government Division, Ministry Of Local Government, Rural Development and Cooperatives, LGED will begin implementing the risk mitigating measures according to the attached schedule. PublicationIndonesia - Investing in the future of Papua and West Papua : Infrastructure for sustainable development(World Bank, 2009-10-01) World BankThe remote and sparsely populated provinces of Papua and West Papua face a time of great change. Monetary transfers from Jakarta have grown extraordinarily in recent years, by more than 600 percent in real terms and 1300 percent in nominal terms since 2000, greatly increasing demand for goods and services. The high price of imports in the interior is producing pressure to improve roads in order to lower transport costs. Pressure is mounting to open up the interior of the region to commercial interests that would like to extract resources: copper, gold, coal, petroleum, natural gas, and, above all, timber. Investment in infrastructure, especially in road transport, is seen as the means to make dreams of development a reality. Building infrastructure in Papua and West Papua also is challenging because of physical (i.e. topographical and geological) conditions. Much of the region has either poorly drained peat soils or steep slopes with thin soils subject to landslides and erosion. Most of Papua and West Papua also receive heavy seasonal rainfall. The cost of building a good, well-planned road into the highlands is Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) 6 to 10 billion per kilometer, far more than has been budgeted in the past. Combined with the low population density (a region three times the size of Java has a population smaller than that of Lombok), this means that it takes bigger networks of roads and power to serve the population. Moreover, such infrastructure has been inadequately maintained. As a result, especially outside urban areas, there is too little to show for past investments in roads, water supply systems, or power generating capacity. The aim of this report is: (i) to lay out the challenges that faces infrastructure planners and implementers in the central, provincial, and Kabupaten and Kota governments in a clear manner; and (ii) provide those planners and implementers with recommendations, based on the best information available, on how to mitigate the effects of these challenges. PublicationManaging Water for Sustainable Growth and Poverty Reduction : A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy for Zambia(World Bank, 2009-08-01) World BankThe country water resources assistance strategy for Zambia provides an analysis of the role of water in the economy and identifies the specific challenges, development opportunities and policies which inform an agreed framework for priority areas of assistance. Zambia lies entirely within the catchments of the Zambezi and Congo rivers and all internal runoff is shared by downstream and parallel riparian countries. This strategic geographic position in the upper reaches of both these catchments provides an important context for any water resources development. Zambia has played an important role in development of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) revised protocol on shared water courses (2000) and is engaged in the process of developing co-operative mechanisms with riparian states. However, the existing legal framework explicitly excludes any provisions for addressing issues on shared waters in the Zambezi and Luapula rivers, along with that portion of the Luangwa River which constitutes the boundary between Zambia and Mozambique. These account for more than 60 percent of Zambia's water resources. Economic development is undermined by physical scarcity of water. Despite the relative abundance, the uneven distribution of water resources across the country, high climatic variability (resulting in frequent floods and droughts) and degradation of water quality increasingly results in localized issues of scarcity. Despite continuing efforts to reduce pollution flow into the Kafue River, severe water quality issues persist in the Copper belt, posing serious health risks to the population and limiting the availability of water for productive purposes. The high dependency on hydropower, with 96 percent of the installed capacity produced within a 300km radius in the Kafue/Zambezi complex, will further increase vulnerability of the national economy to impacts associated with changing climatic conditions. PublicationUnderstanding Sector Performance : The Case of Utilities in Latin America and the Caribbean(World Bank, 2009-07-29) World BankThis report provides innovative approaches to better understand infrastructure sector performance by focusing on the links between key indicators for private and public utilities, and changes in ownership, regulatory agency governance, and corporate governance, among other dimensions. By linking inputs and outputs over the last 15 years, the analysis proposes key determinants that have impacted sector performance in infrastructure sectors in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). It is about understanding how and to what extent the effect of such elements result in significant changes in the performance of infrastructure service provision. This report focuses on the distribution segment of basic infrastructure services. It covers electricity distribution, water distribution and sewerage, and fixed telecommunications. More specifically, the report does: i) depict sector performance with a broad set of indicators that describes the current situation as well its evolution during the last 15 years; ii) propose analytical frameworks for themes less developed in the literature such as regulatory governance and corporate governance for state-owned enterprises (SOEs); iii) benchmark the institutional designs of the regulatory agencies in the region for the water and electricity sectors; and iv) analyze the relationship between sector performance and regulation, private sector participation, and corporate governance. PublicationSolvency Measures for Insurance Companies : Is There a Room for Improvement?(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-06-26) Gurenko, Eugene N.; Itigin, AlexanderOver the last few years, there has been a considerable debate in the industry and in the academic community about the accuracy and reliability of risk-based solvency measures in approximating the level of risk retained by insurance and reinsurance entities. This topic was further reinvigorated by the recent enactment of second solvency requirements by the European Parliament, which should replace the current first solvency regulations in 2012. Despite divergence of opinions about the adequacy of specific risk based measures of required solvency capital, there seems to be a general consensus that in principle, well-designed risk based capital (RBC) or solvency requirements can help achieve an efficient reduction in the expected costs of insolvencies by helping regulators to identify weak insurers and intervene well before capital falls below specified levels. The main objective of this paper is to revisit both issues the accuracy and reliability of most common risk-based measures of insurers' solvency and the practicability of risk-based measures of solvency for corrective regulatory action. The paper also touches upon the role of financial incentives in developing the RBC estimates. PublicationVietnam : Framework for Thermal BOT Tenders and Strategy for Gas Coordination and Harmonization with Market Roadmap, Volume 2(Washington, DC, 2009-06-20) World BankThis Final Report represents the third and final under The World Bank PPIAF-financed Vietnam Framework for Thermal BOT Tenders & Strategy for Gas Coordination and Harmonization with Market Roadmap. It consists of two volumes: Volume 1 presents the executive summaries of assignment activities, and a detailed report on coordination of gas and power development planning. Volume 2 presents the detailed report on mechanisms for market integration and competitive tendering. PublicationVietnam : Framework for Thermal BOT Tenders and Strategy for Gas Coordination and Harmonization with Market Roadmap, Volume 1(Washington, DC, 2009-06-20) World BankThe purpose of this Volume 1 report is to explore how development of the gas andelectricity sectors can be better coordinated within this dynamic environment. In particular,this report aims to: Briefly outline the gas resources and developments in Vietnam, and describe the current institutional arrangements for the gas sector and how they relate to overall gas and electricity planning; Identify key gas sector issues as they relate to gas and electricity sector planning in general and BOT electricity generation project development, and in particular identify the development and operating risks for a BOT electricity generation project developer and suggest mitigation measures for these risks ;Suggest mechanisms to improve gas and electricity planning coordination. Present a case study that illustrates some of the gas and electricity planning issues and how these would be addressed if the suggested planning changes were implemented. This assignment has been undertaken during a period of unprecedented change in Vietnam. The electricity sector is part way through the complex process of introducing a market. In global world energy markets, oil prices have risen to USD140/bbl and then dropped to below USD50/bbl in less than a year. In global financial markets, the world isfacing the deepest recession in decades, the banking sector is in turmoil, and theavailability of credit has shrunk dramatically. It is difficult for any planning process to cope with these massive worldwide shifts and fully capture the expected economic impact on a rapidly growing economy such as Vietnam. As a result of these events, some data such as electricity load forecasts and the least-cost ranking of generating plant would likely differ if they were updated. Nonetheless, the fundamental observations and recommendations of this report remain relevant despite (or perhaps because of) the volatility of international markets. And while recent economic volatility complicates planning, it makes it all the more necessary. PublicationAir Transport : Challenges to Growth(World Bank, 2009-06-01) World BankThe air transport market in Sub-Saharan Africa presents a strong dichotomy. In Southern and East Africa the market is growing: three strong hubs and three major African carriers dominate international and domestic markets, which are becoming increasingly concentrated. In contrast, in Central and West Africa the sector is stagnating, with the vacuum created by the collapse of Cote d'Ivoire and the demise of several regional airlines, including Air Afrique, still unfilled. Throughout, there are many unviable small state-owned operations that depend on subsidies and have a monopoly over the domestic market. There are also some promising signs: growth in air traffic has been buoyant, the number of routes and the size of aircraft are being adapted to the market, and a number of large carriers are viable and expanding. But in spite of this, overall connectivity has been declining. As oil prices rise, the role of air transportation will be looked at even more critically. Africa is a poor continent, and some countries face the potential of further isolation as the cost of flying increases. At a time when Africa's infrastructure requirements are being widely debated, a more complete inventory of air transport capabilities is sought. This report will focus on industry organization within Africa; overall accessibility; and the quality of oversight and infrastructure installations countrywide and at selected airports with various capacities. Beyond data collected from questionnaires sent directly to the civil aviation authorities (CAAs) in each country, this report relies on data collected through a variety of other sources, especially from the providers of flight schedules to global reservation systems, for an independent analysis of trends.