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Publication Georgia Economic Impact of East-West Highway Phase 2: Assessing the Impact of East-West Highway Investments on Exports through Gravity Modeling(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-06-27) World BankThe objective of this study is to assess the impact of the East-West Highway improvement program on Georgia’s ability to access international markets. As highlighted extensively in the literature, improving transport infrastructure and the efficiency of the logistics sector can help countries gain competitiveness in international export markets, which can translate into faster economic growth and higher income. This study hypothesizes that investments in the EWH have reduced the cost of shipping Georgian goods to the rest of the world, and such reductions should be more significant for goods transported by road. To estimate the effect of cost reductions generated by improvements in the EWH, a gravity-type model in first-differences has been estimated. The results show that: (i) a 10 percent increase in the length of upgraded road network predicts a 1.1 percent increase in exports transported by road while no significant effect is estimated for exports on other transport modes (rail, sea, and air); (ii) the resulting increase in exports by road was reflected by a decrease in exports transported by sea; (iii) the effect is statistically and economically significant only for customs offices located along the EWH; (iv) only exports of time-sensitive products responded positively and significantly to improvements in the EWH during the 2006-2015 period; (v) upgrading the entire EWH is estimated to generate additional export revenues between USD 776 million and USD 1,466 million. It is important to note that the overall trade generating effect of the investment is expected to be somewhat lower as the results suggest some substitution between road and sea transport, but the overall impact is a significant boost to exports.Publication Federative Republic of Brazil iRAP Pilot Technical Report: Federal Highways(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-01) World BankAs part of efforts to curb road deaths and serious injuries, the World Bank Global Road Safety Facility (GRSF) invited the International Road Assessment Programme (iRAP) to work with the National Department of Transport Infrastructure (Departamento Nacional de Infraestrutura de Transportes, DNIT) to assess the safety of Brazilian roads. During this second assessment of Brazilian roads, approximately 3,400km of roads were assessed. This technical report describes the road assessment project and includes details on data collection, the methodology used and a summary of the results. The infrastructure-related risk assessment involved detailed surveys and coding of 50 road attributes at 100 meter intervals along the network and creation of Star Ratings, which provide a simple and objective measure showing the level of risk on the road network. The star ratings show that 1 percent of road length is rated as 5-star, 9 percent is rated as 4-star, 58 percent is rated as 3-star, and the remaining 32 percent is rated as 2-star and below for vehicle occupants. For motorcyclists, no roads were rated as 5-star, only 3 percent of road length is rated as 4-star, 47 percent is rated as 3-star, and the remaining 50 percent is rated 2-star and below. For pedestrians less than 1 percent is rated as 4-star and 5-star, 2 percent is rated as 3-star and the remaining 13 percent is rated 2-star and below. For bicyclists less than 1 percent is rated as 5-star or 4-star, 5 percent is rated as 3-star and the remaining 14 percent is rated 2-star and below. The project also involved the creation of a Safer Roads Investment Plans, which draws on more than 90 proven road safety treatments, ranging from low cost road markings and pedestrian refuges to higher cost intersection upgrades and full highway duplication.Publication Shifting into Higher Gear: Recommendations for Improved Grain Logistics in Ukraine(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-08) World Bank GroupThis study was conceived on the basis of a request by Ukraine’s Ministry of Agricultural Policies and Food (MoAPF). In 2013, the MoAPF explored the World Bank’s interest for investing in grain hoppers, following a deficit of hoppers and concerns about related difficulties for grain transport. In response, the World Bank secured resources from the Multi Donor Trust Fund for Trade and Development (TF016693) to carry out a review of grain logistics in Ukraine in order to better understand the challenges facing the sector. The objectives of this report are to assess the functioning of the grain logistics system, identify bottlenecks and put forward practical recommendations for investments and reform. Research points to five key drivers of current high logistics costs: (i) lack of regulatory clarity and sub-optimal management of public assets that create barriers to private investments; (ii) underutilization of river transport, (iii) underinvestment in rail transport; (iv) inefficiencies in storage management, and (v) excessive use of road transport. However, there are two important limitations of the report that should be taken into account. First, the ongoing crisis remains a source of uncertainty. It has so far had limited impact on grain production and logistics, yet access to finance has become more difficult and other impacts might arise in the future. Second, there are two areas that the report does not address: customs and ports. Both are important elements of logistics costs and deserve a comprehensive analysis in the future.Publication Philippine Transport Infrastructure Development Roadmap Framework Plan: Executive Summary(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-10) Cambridge SystematicsVarious transport-related agencies and local governments develop their respective transport plans or strategies to address bottlenecks and improve outcomes in the transport sector. However, to be able to bring a more focused or targeted intervention that is more inclusive, these various strategies need to focus on establishing interconnectivity between key urban growth centers and between lagging and fast-growing regions, and creating supporting institutions that promote greater integration. Upon the request of the National Economic and Development Authority, a framework plan was developed to provide policy-makers with a strategic framework to help identify the transport needs of the Philippines and guide in implementing an integrated, more coordinated approach to establishing stronger transport infrastructure linkages to support the country’s inclusive growth agenda. The framework plan was developed under the guidance of a vision and goals developed by stakeholders across the Philippines. This comprehensive vision can be summarized as ‘Bringing us all closer together for prosperity.’ The geographic focus of the Framework Plan includes all of the Philippines outside of Metro Manila. This Framework Plan does not replicate the work being done by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) for Metro Manila (the JICA study covers Metro Manila with an approximate radius of 100 kilometers and is being conducted to evaluate specific transport infrastructure projects for the Metro Manila area). Future improvements and needs of transportation infrastructure to meet the demand for long-distance transport to and from Metro Manila and to other urban/economic centers in the Philippines are considered; nevertheless, national-level strategies recommended in this study affect all areas of the Philippines.Publication Regional Economic Impact Analysis of High Speed Rail in China : Main Report(Washington, DC, 2014-06-25) World BankThis report reflects a two-stage work flow designed to fulfill the research objectives: stage one defined the methodology, and stages two tested this methodology and transferred the know-how to the China Railway Corporation and its consultants through case studies. Chapter two summarizes the theoretical framework within which regional economic impacts are discussed and quantified. Chapter three reviews current regional economic impact analyses in China. Chapter four summarizes the approach to practical regional impact assessment in other countries and reviews the relevance of the main methods in the Chinese context. Chapter five summarizes the work that has been carried out by the World Bank to date in estimating regional impacts in China. Chapter six develops a practical approach to quantifying the regional economic impacts of future HSR in China, including methods for data collection, surveys and interviews. Chapter seven presents the implementation of the methodology in the case studies and the interpretation of quantified model results. Chapter eight summarizes the conclusions and the recommendations for further work. In addition, appendices one to three provide further details about existing assessment studies and methodologies. Appendices four and five show the interview and survey forms. A separate report provides a step-by-step how-to guide for a regional economic impact assessment using a four zone generic example model, which as a simple numerical example complements the presentation of the case study applications on Changchun-Jilin HSR and the northern part of the Beijing-Shanghai HSR.Publication Cairo Traffic Congestion Study : Executive Note(Washington, DC, 2014-05) World BankThe Greater Cairo Metropolitan Area (GCMA), with more than 19 million inhabitants, is host to more than one-fifth of Egypt's population. The GCMA is also an important contributor to the Egyptian economy in terms of GDP and jobs. The population of the GCMA is expected to further increase to 24 million by 2027, and correspondingly its importance to the economy will also increase. Traffic congestion is a serious problem in the GCMA with large and adverse effects on both the quality of life and the economy. In addition to the time wasted standing still in traffic, time that could be put to more productive uses, congestion results in unnecessary fuel consumption, causes additional wear and tear on vehicles, increases harmful emissions lowering air quality, increases the costs of transport for business, and makes the GCMA an unattractive location for businesses and industry. These adverse effects have very real and large monetary and nonmonetary costs not only for the economy of the GCMA, but given its size, for the economy of Egypt as well. As the population of the GCMA continues to increase, traffic congestion is becoming worse and the need to address this congestion is becoming more urgent. This report documents the results of the study. The results of this study should be of interest to policy-makers and practitioners in the GCMA, the Egyptian Government, other cities facing similar problems, and international financial institutions.Publication Zimbabwe Infrastructure Policy Review(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-12-09) Ringskog, KlasMany empirical studies have demonstrated the close relationship between a country’s economic development and its stock of infrastructure. Decades of deferred maintenance and lack of long-term financing have taken a heavy toll on Zimbabwe’s infrastructure that at one time was ranked at the top in Africa. Only the information and communications technologies (ICT) sector has been performing relatively well but its high tariffs add to the cost of doing business in Zimbabwe. The strategy in the infrastructure sectors is to encourage public private partnerships (PPPs) for the financing and execution of the different sub-projects. This strategy has been emerging in the electric power, road transport, and ICT sectors and is now being extended to water supply and sanitation. This review builds on the findings from an October-November 2013 mission that, upon the request of the Ministry of Finance, assessed the ministerial submissions for the 2014 public sector investment program (PSIP). The review concludes that the perception of the predictable policies is key for attracting responsible private partners for sustainable PPPs. The review recommends less risky options such as: (i) outsourcing operations of existing plants; (ii) lease contracts of existing plants; and (iii) sales of existing thermal plants. The review notes that the analytical multi donor trust fund (AMDTF) is programmed to close on June 30, 2014. It is of the essence to explore the possibilities to locate concessionary funding for a successor to the AMDTF given the high priority of additional studies in the power, water, and ICT sectors to prepare for the reforms suggested.Publication Regional Impacts of High Speed Rail in China : Spatial Proximity and Productivity in an Emerging Economy(World Bank, Beijing, 2013-06-30) Jin, Ying; Bullock, Richard; Fang, WanliThis paper contains an initial reconnaissance of the situation in Yunfu, prior to the NanGuang project construction. It provides a brief overview of the trajectory of economic development in Yunfu from an economy that was dominated by primary industries to that by secondary industries. The development of local transport infrastructure is reviewed, as is the more detailed structure of local industries, with special emphasis on dominant industrial sectors and the planned industrial parks. The experience of high speed rail development impact elsewhere was drawn upon to reflect on the possible regional economic outcomes that might emerge following the opening of the Nanning-Guangzhou high speed rail. The structure of and the approach to a before and after monitoring study is considered. The remainder of the paper is divided into six parts. Part two gives a brief overview of the economic development in Yunfu municipality since its establishment in 1994. Part three describes local transport links and infrastructure. Part four provides a description of the internal structure of local industries, with special emphasis on the dominant industrial sectors and the planned industrial parks. Part five discusses possible regional economic impacts associated with the forthcoming high-speed rail line and part six summarizes a proposal for the next steps.Publication Cairo Traffic Congestion Study : Final Report(Washington, DC, 2013-05) World BankThe Greater Cairo Metropolitan Area (GCMA), with more than 19 million inhabitants, is host to more than one-fifth of Egypt's population. The GCMA is also an important contributor to the Egyptian economy in terms of GDP and jobs. The population of the GCMA is expected to further increase to 24 million by 2027, and correspondingly its importance to the economy will also increase. Traffic congestion is a serious problem in the GCMA with large and adverse effects on both the quality of life and the economy. In addition to the time wasted standing still in traffic, time that could be put to more productive uses, congestion results in unnecessary fuel consumption, causes additional wear and tear on vehicles, increases harmful emissions lowering air quality, increases the costs of transport for business, and makes the GCMA an unattractive location for businesses and industry. These adverse effects have very real and large monetary and nonmonetary costs not only for the economy of the GCMA, but given its size, for the economy of Egypt as well. As the population of the GCMA continues to increase, traffic congestion is becoming worse and the need to address this congestion is becoming more urgent. In recognition of the seriousness of the problem of traffic congestion, and upon the request of Government, primarily the Ministries of Finance, Transport, Housing, and Interior, the World Bank funded an investigation into its magnitude, causes, and potential solutions in the GCMA. This report documents the results of the study. The results of this study should be of interest to policy-makers and practitioners in the GCMA, the Egyptian Government, other cities facing similar problems, and international financial institutions.Publication Mongolia : Improving Public Investments to Meet the Challenge of Scaling Up Infrastructure(Washington, DC, 2013-01) World BankThe objective of this report is to analyze in depth the current public investment management system and to assess whether or not it is able to meet this challenge of delivering good quality projects in the priority areas in a macro-economically sustainable manner; and to recommend what needs to be done to improve the system so that it is able to effectively transform natural resource revenues into sustainable capital assets. In making its recommendations, this report focuses on some of the details that need to be laid out in implementing regulations in order to make the Fiscal Stability Law (FSL), Budget Law of Mongolia (IBL), and Public Procurement Law of Mongolia (PPLM) work. The report also suggests amendments to some of the existing laws that pose a risk to meeting the four objectives. In proposing policy options, the report is conscious of the political economy of reform and, wherever possible, analyzes the compatibility of the technical solutions with the political interests of policy-makers.