Other Infrastructure Study
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Publication
Vulnerability to Human Trafficking in Nepal from Enhanced Regional Connectivity
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12)Trafficking in persons is a serious crime and a grave violation of human rights. It is a form of modern-day slavery that involves the recruitment, harboring, or transportation of people into an exploitative situation by means of violence, deception, or coercion for the purpose of exploitation. In Nepal, the most widespread forms of human trafficking are for forced labor, domestic servitude, prostitution and sexual exploitation, and organ extraction. The country’s open borders with India, and to some extent China, with limited border surveillance, have enabled transnational crimes such as human trafficking. The World Bank has extended technical and financial assistance to large-scale infrastructure projects in Nepal, some for improved transport connectivity and trade facilitation both within the country and within the region. The nature of these investments must be looked at through the lens of enhancing long-term economic growth and prosperity, which is jeopardized by human trafficking. As a result, this study was conducted to draw links between the various aspects of development projects, in particular, improved transport connectivity and migration, that either contribute, mitigate, facilitate, or prevent trafficking in men, women, and children. -
Publication
Mongolia InfraSAP: Infrastructure for Connectivity and Economic Diversification
(World Bank, Ulaanbaatar, 2020-11-10)Like many emerging economies, policy discussions on social and economic growth in Mongolia often gravitate to transport, energy and digital infrastructure as the backbone. ‘What infrastructure?’ and ‘infrastructure for what?’ are equally important questions given the aspirations to unlock new drivers of growth beyond mining and export of primary products. Mongolia’s vast territorial expanse and low population density create unique challenges for economic development in general and infrastructure investments in particular. Sandwiched between China and the Russia, two of the largest countries and economies in the world, Mongolia is the least densely populated country in the world. With just over 3.2 million people inhabiting a territory of 1.564 million square kilometers (more than six times the size of the United Kingdom and less than a third the population of London), Mongolia has a population density of 2.1 people per square kilometer. About half the population—some 1.4 million people—live in the capital city Ulaanbaatar. The rest of the population is spread across small urban centers and vast steppes. Given the spatial and density challenges, the conventional ‘build and they shall come’ approach to developing infrastructure has proved sub-optimal. Mongolia has some of the largest average transport distances (600km) and highest logistics costs (30% of GDP). The infrastructure challenge is made worse by the limited financing options. This infraSAP presents a more sophisticated approach which incorporates strategic value chain analysis and disaggregated modeling of freight movements, and then targets infrastructure investment for amplified impact. In this approach, infrastructure is located at the highest concentrations of economic activity and is developed as part of an integrated national logistics system. This surgical approach informs more targeted policy decisions on how to use scarce resources to accelerate economic diversification and competitiveness while addressing institutional bottlenecks. -
Publication
South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative: Uzbekistan Country Case Study
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)Uzbekistan is a resource-rich country with a relatively young population of 33 million, the largest in Central Asia. It is also a geographic pivot for the region, bordering all other Central Asian countries and Afghanistan, with transit connections in all directions. As a double landlocked country, it is uniquely dependent on these cross-border transport connections and on how well they work. It can also potentially be the largest market in Central Asia and given its sizeable young labor force and substantial agricultural and manufacturing capacity, a major regional exporter. This note attempts to highlight the potential economic impact of BRI on the Tajik economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented globally, the BRI is expected to achieve better transport connections and greater economic integration of participating BRI countries, discusses improvements in Tajikistan’s cross-border transport, electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, and assesses the potential impact of the completion of all BRI transport projects on Tajik shipment time. It further looks at the likely economic impact of BRI reductions in shipment time on exports, FDI and GDP, and the spatial distribution of benefits within the country and at how complementary polices can enhance the positive impact and mitigate risks. Finally, it examines the fiscal risk of Tajikistan’s scaling-up of investment in BRI transport projects in the coming years without undermining medium-term debt sustainability. -
Publication
Greener Transport Connectivity for Eastern Partnership Countries
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)The Eastern Partnership (EaP) is a joint policy initiative, which aims to deepen and strengthen relations between the European Union (EU) and its six Eastern neighbours. One of its four priority areas is stronger connectivity which includes the extension of the Trans European Transport Network (TEN-T) to the EaP region. On the policy front, it aims at achieving regulatory convergence across transport modes between member countries and with the EU to heighten the focus on energy efficiency and combat climate change. The EaP countries experienced a large shock to their economies following the end of the Soviet Union in 1989. At the same time, EaP countries are acutely aware of the need to converge with the EU in terms of energy efficiency, environment and climate change goals. The EU is currently formalising its European Green Deal, which is a roadmap for making the EU's economy sustainable. The objective of this study is to assist decision-makers in prioritizing strategic transport policies and infrastructure investments. It develops the evidence base and prioritisation framework for improving the transport sector of the region including improved energy efficiency and sustainability so that it is not left behind by advances in the EU. The study has also developed an online visualization tool to help policy makers explore and use the results of the modelling exercise. -
Publication
South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative: Kazakhstan Country Case Study
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)Kazakhstan is an upper-middle income, resource rich country. Its ascent to upper-middle income status was propelled by rising oil production and booming oil prices which pushed the average annual rate to above 7 percent during 2000-2013. The halving of world oil prices and lower export demand since resulted in a sharp slowdown with an average annual GDP growth rate of 2.2 percent in 2014-17. Growth picked up modestly recently but remains a far cry from the levels seen in early 2000s. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic and the slump in commodity prices further dents the growth outlook. This note assesses the potential impact of BRI over connectivity and the Kazakh economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented globally, the BRI is expected to achieve better transport connections and greater economic integration of participating BRI countries, discusses improvements in Kazakhstan’s cross-border transport, electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, and the potential impact of the completion of BRI transport projects on lowering Kazakh shipment time. It further looks at the likely economic impact of BRI reductions in shipment time on exports, FDI and GDP, the within country regional distribution of that impact and how complementary polices can enhance the positive impact and reduce regional inequity. Finally, it also examines the fiscal risk of scaling-up investment in BRI projects in the coming years without undermining medium-term debt sustainability. -
Publication
South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative: Tajikistan Country Case Study
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)Tajikistan is the poorest country in the region despite strong growth for nearly two decades; sustaining growth in future will need substantially higher growth in private investment and exports. Its per capita income (GNI) is close to US$1,000 but nearly a third of its population, of around 9 million, live in poverty. Its growth of 6-7 percent per year since 2000 was fueled by growth in consumption and public investment, the latter driven mainly by rising remittances and export receipts from aluminum and cotton. Private investment and growth of other exports remained weak, and the fiscal situation, fragile for most of that period. Accordingly, the National Development Strategy 2030 (NDS) seeks to address those weaknesses. This note attempts to highlight the potential economic impact of BRI on the Tajik economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented globally, the BRI is expected to achieve better transport connections and greater economic integration of participating BRI countries, discusses improvements in Tajikistan’s cross-border transport, electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, and assesses the potential impact of the completion of all BRI transport projects on Tajik shipment time. It further looks at the likely economic impact of BRI reductions in shipment time on exports, FDI and GDP, and the spatial distribution of benefits within the country and at how complementary polices can enhance the positive impact and mitigate risks. Finally, it examines the fiscal risk of Tajikistan’s scaling-up of investment in BRI transport projects in the coming years without undermining medium-term debt sustainability. -
Publication
South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative: Georgia Country Case Study
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)Georgia is the only country in the CAC region that can access markets around the world through its own seaports and thus less dependent on China’s BRI overland corridors for trade, investment and growth. Nevertheless, the Georgian government is investing in the one BRI corridor China, Europe route that passes through the Caucuses, partly because it provides a faster route to China. The potential for larger volume of Chinese transit cargo on this route may also be attractive given its desire to become a major transit and trading hub in the region. With greater people-to-people contact between China and Georgia, there could also be greater access to China’s outward FDI under the BRI that would bring with it capital, better technology as well as managerial and marketing know-how. Chinese private firms are already investing in Tbilisi, Kutaisi and other areas in the country. Georgia’s liberal investment and trade regime, especially its free trade agreements with the European Union (EU), China, Turkey, and its location, make it eminently suited for such FDI inflows, including participation in China-centric Global Value Chains (GVCs). This note assesses the potential impact of BRI over connectivity and the Georgian economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented globally, the BRI is expected to achieve better transport connections and greater economic integration of participating BRI countries, discusses improvements in Georgia’s cross-border transport, electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, and the potential impact of the completion of BRI transport projects on lowering Georgia’s shipment time. It further looks at the likely economic impact of BRI reductions in shipment time on exports, FDI and GDP, the within-country regional distribution of that impact and how complementary polices can enhance the positive impact, mitigate risks and reduce regional inequity. Finally, it also examines the fiscal risk of scaling-up investment in BRI projects in the coming years without undermining medium-term debt sustainability. -
Publication
South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative: Kyrgyz Republic Country Case Study
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)The Kyrgyz economy has been, since its earliest days, the most liberal and open among Central Asian countries resulting in an atypical structural transformation with limited productivity growth. It was the first Central Asian country to become a WTO member in 1998 and its trade share in GDP is the highest in the region. This is largely due to the flourishing cross-border trade with Kyrgyz Republic’s large markets, Dordoi and Kara-Su, intermediating large volumes of goods: importing goods through both formal and informal trade systems, mainly from China, and re-exporting (in few cases with some value-addition) most of that to other economies in the region. It has highly entrepreneurial traders and a logistics-system that caters well to this large ‘entrepot’ trade. Agriculture and light manufacturing have contributed to its exports. This note assesses the potential impact of BRI over connectivity and the Kazakh economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented globally, the BRI is expected to achieve better transport connections and greater economic integration of participating BRI countries, discusses improvements in Kazakhstan’s cross-border transport, electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, and the potential impact of the completion of BRI transport projects on lowering Kazakh shipment time. It further looks at the likely economic impact of BRI reductions in shipment time on exports, FDI and GDP, the within country regional distribution of that impact and how complementary polices can enhance the positive impact and reduce regional inequity. Finally, it also examines the fiscal risk of scaling-up investment in BRI projects in the coming years without undermining medium-term debt sustainability. -
Publication
South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative: Armenia Country Case Study
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)Armenia is a small land-locked mountainous country with relatively difficult access to regional and global markets. The borders with Azerbaijan in the east and with Turkey in the southwest and west are closed. Only the borders with Georgia in the north and Iran in the south are open for trade and transport. Roads dominate its mode of transportation because of its mostly mountainous terrain. The only cross-border rail connection is through Georgia. None of the BRI-corridors pass through the country and even the one that goes through Georgia is only accessible in the western direction. This note assesses the potential impact of BRI over connectivity and the Armenian economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented globally, the BRI is expected to achieve better transport connections and greater economic integration, discusses improvements in Armenia’s cross-border transport, electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, and the potential impact of the completion of BRI transport projects on lowering Armenian shipment time. It further looks at the likely economic impact of BRI-related reductions in shipment time on exports, FDI and GDP, the within-country regional distribution of that impact and how complementary polices can enhance the positive impact, mitigate risks and reduce regional inequity. Finally, it also examines the fiscal risk of scaling-up investment in BRI projects in the coming years without undermining medium-term debt sustainability. -
Publication
Belt and Road Initiative: Azerbaijan Country Case Study
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), announced in 2013 and formalized in 2015, is China’s long-term commitment and aims to improve connectivity within Asia as well as between Asia and other continents via transport corridors (rail, road, maritime, air) and deeper economic, political, and cultural integration between China and the countries in Europe and Africa (National Development and Reform Commission, 2015). This study analyzes a potential impact of the BRI on Azerbaijan’s economy by focusing on (1) Azerbaijan’s connectivity and trade with the BRI economies; (2) its recent improvements in transport, power, and ICT infrastructure as part of the China, Central Asia, West Asia economic corridor; (3) its remaining connectivity gaps and challenges; and (4) potential economic effects of BRI on Azerbaijan’s trade, foreign investment, growth and welfare. Finally, the study concludes with policy implications that would mitigate the BRI risks and maximize the benefits.