Other Infrastructure Study
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Publication
The Potential of Zero-Carbon Bunker Fuels in Developing Countries
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-15)To meet the climate targets set forth in the International Maritime Organization’s Initial GHG Strategy, the maritime transport sector needs to abandon the use of fossil-based bunker fuels and turn toward zero-carbon alternatives which emit zero or at most very low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions throughout their lifecycles. This report, “The Potential of Zero-Carbon Bunker Fuels in Developing Countries”, examines a range of zero-carbon bunker fuel options that are considered to be major contributors to shipping’s decarbonized future: biofuels, hydrogen and ammonia, and synthetic carbon-based fuels. The comparison shows that green ammonia and green hydrogen strike the most advantageous balance of favorable features due to their lifecycle GHG emissions, broader environmental factors, scalability, economics, and technical and safety implications. Furthermore, the report finds that many countries, including developing countries, are very well positioned to become future suppliers of zero-carbon bunker fuels—namely ammonia and hydrogen. By embracing their potential, these countries would be able to tap into an estimated $1+ trillion future fuel market while modernizing their own domestic energy and industrial infrastructure. However, strategic policy interventions are needed to unlock these potentials. -
Publication
Charting a Course for Decarbonizing Maritime Transport: Summary for Policymakers and Industry
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-15)As the backbone of global trade, international maritime transport connects the world and facilitates economic growth and development, especially in developing countries. However, producing around three percent of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and emitting around 15 percent of some of the world’s major air pollutants, shipping is a major contributor to climate change and air pollution. To mitigate its negative environmental impact, shipping needs to abandon fossil-based bunker fuels and turn to zero-carbon alternatives. This report, the “Summary for Policymakers and Industry,” summarizes recent World Bank research on decarbonizing the maritime sector. The analysis identifies green ammonia and hydrogen as the most promising zero-carbon bunker fuels within the maritime industry at present. These fuels strike the most advantageous balance of favorable features relating to their lifecycle GHG emissions, broader environmental factors, scalability, economics, and technical and safety implications. The analysis also identifies that LNG will likely only play a limited role in shipping’s energy transition due to concerns over methane slip and stranded assets. Crucially, the research reveals that decarbonizing maritime transport offers unique business and development opportunities for developing countries. Developing countries with large renewable energy resources could take advantage of the new and emerging future zero-carbon bunker fuel market, estimated at over $1 trillion, to establish new export markets while also modernizing their own domestic energy and industrial infrastructure. However, strategic policy interventions are needed to hasten the sector’s energy transition. -
Publication
The Role of LNG in the Transition Toward Low- and Zero-Carbon Shipping
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-15)Due to its much lower air pollution and potential greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions benefits, liquefied natural gas (LNG) is frequently discussed as a fuel pathway towards greener maritime transport. While LNG’s air quality improvements are undeniable, there is debate within the sector as to what extent LNG may be able to contribute to decarbonizing shipping. This report, “The Role of LNG in the Transition Toward Low- and Zero-Carbon Shipping,” considers the potential of LNG to play either a transitional role, in which existing LNG infrastructure and vessels could continue to be used with compatible zero-carbon bunker fuels after 2030, or a temporary one, in which LNG would be rapidly supplanted by zero-carbon alternatives from 2030. Over concerns about methane leakage, which could diminish or even offset any GHG benefits associated with LNG, and additional capital expenditures, the risk of stranded assets as well as a technology lock-in, the report concludes that LNG is unlikely to play a significant role in decarbonizing maritime transport. Instead, the research finds that LNG is likely to only be used in niche shipping applications or in its non-liquefied form as a feedstock to kickstart the production of zero-carbon bunker fuels when used in conjunction with carbon capture and storage technology. The research further suggests that new public policy in support of LNG as a bunker fuel should be avoided, existing policy support should be reconsidered, and methane emissions should be regulated. -
Publication
Mongolia InfraSAP: Infrastructure for Connectivity and Economic Diversification
(World Bank, Ulaanbaatar, 2020-11-10)Like many emerging economies, policy discussions on social and economic growth in Mongolia often gravitate to transport, energy and digital infrastructure as the backbone. ‘What infrastructure?’ and ‘infrastructure for what?’ are equally important questions given the aspirations to unlock new drivers of growth beyond mining and export of primary products. Mongolia’s vast territorial expanse and low population density create unique challenges for economic development in general and infrastructure investments in particular. Sandwiched between China and the Russia, two of the largest countries and economies in the world, Mongolia is the least densely populated country in the world. With just over 3.2 million people inhabiting a territory of 1.564 million square kilometers (more than six times the size of the United Kingdom and less than a third the population of London), Mongolia has a population density of 2.1 people per square kilometer. About half the population—some 1.4 million people—live in the capital city Ulaanbaatar. The rest of the population is spread across small urban centers and vast steppes. Given the spatial and density challenges, the conventional ‘build and they shall come’ approach to developing infrastructure has proved sub-optimal. Mongolia has some of the largest average transport distances (600km) and highest logistics costs (30% of GDP). The infrastructure challenge is made worse by the limited financing options. This infraSAP presents a more sophisticated approach which incorporates strategic value chain analysis and disaggregated modeling of freight movements, and then targets infrastructure investment for amplified impact. In this approach, infrastructure is located at the highest concentrations of economic activity and is developed as part of an integrated national logistics system. This surgical approach informs more targeted policy decisions on how to use scarce resources to accelerate economic diversification and competitiveness while addressing institutional bottlenecks. -
Publication
Belt and Road Initiative: Azerbaijan Country Case Study
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), announced in 2013 and formalized in 2015, is China’s long-term commitment and aims to improve connectivity within Asia as well as between Asia and other continents via transport corridors (rail, road, maritime, air) and deeper economic, political, and cultural integration between China and the countries in Europe and Africa (National Development and Reform Commission, 2015). This study analyzes a potential impact of the BRI on Azerbaijan’s economy by focusing on (1) Azerbaijan’s connectivity and trade with the BRI economies; (2) its recent improvements in transport, power, and ICT infrastructure as part of the China, Central Asia, West Asia economic corridor; (3) its remaining connectivity gaps and challenges; and (4) potential economic effects of BRI on Azerbaijan’s trade, foreign investment, growth and welfare. Finally, the study concludes with policy implications that would mitigate the BRI risks and maximize the benefits. -
Publication
Tunisia Infrastructure Diagnostic
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-12)Tunisia’s has made significant investments in infrastructure, which has contributed to economic growth. The investments have enabled reasonably good access to basic infrastructure services. While access rates are high, the relative quality of Tunisia’s infrastructure has deteriorated significantly over the last ten years. State-owned enterprises (SOEs), which dominate the infrastructure sector, receive considerable subsidies and incur notable financial losses. Overall, there is a heavy reliance on external borrowing to fund infrastructure investment, which creates contingent liabilities, and enhances foreign exchange and macro-economic risk. Chapter one provides an overview of Tunisia’s infrastructure performance; chapter two discusses each sub-sector in more detail in terms of achievements and challenges; chapter three looks at historical trends in spending followed by a scenario analysis of investment needs with anecdotal examples, and discusses the present macro-economic and fiscal constraints; and chapter four presents possible action items for further discussion with the Tunisian government. -
Publication
Mobilizing Private Finance for Development in Latin America and the Caribbean
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-02)The Latin America and the Caribbean Region (LAC) has the largest stock of active PPP investments and the largest pipeline of infrastructure projects by volume globally, reflecting the central role of the private sector in the regional development agenda. Looking ahead, the region is making efforts to close the estimated US$180 billion per year investment gap with further private sector resources by: (i) improving the enabling environment for private investments to take place; and (ii) developing a robust pipeline of bankable projects. The WBG is well-placed to assist the region with financial support and knowledge services, as illustrated by the examples selected for part three of this report.