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Publication
Transport and Logistics: Myanmar Infrastructure Monitoring
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-03-31) World BankTransport and logistics services in Myanmar have been substantially hit by the impacts of the February 2021 coup and the surge in Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases. Logistics companies have been affected by rising fuel prices, border closures, and a shortage of shipping containers. While the initial effects after the military coup on the transport sector were extremely severe, there have been signs of some recovery of transport services since May 2021. Public transport in Yangon experienced a significant reduction in passenger demand in early months after the coup, subsequently recovering some ground by December 2021. Higher fuel prices and currency liquidity shortages significantly increased the cost of inland transport services. Transportation and logistics services are expected to be severely impacted by continuing high fuel prices, mobility constrains, political instability, and evolution of the pandemic. The export and import via container are expected to recover gradually due to agricultural and garment industry-led demand. However, improvement of exports and imports in the medium term is uncertain given the complexity of trade relations with international trade partners. In addition to effects of the coup and political conflicts, risks related to the pandemic will also significantly impact logistics supply chains and mobility in the near to mid-term. -
Publication
The Potential of Zero-Carbon Bunker Fuels in Developing Countries
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-15) Englert, Dominik ; Losos, Andrew ; Raucci, Carlo ; Smith, TristanTo meet the climate targets set forth in the International Maritime Organization’s Initial GHG Strategy, the maritime transport sector needs to abandon the use of fossil-based bunker fuels and turn toward zero-carbon alternatives which emit zero or at most very low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions throughout their lifecycles. This report, “The Potential of Zero-Carbon Bunker Fuels in Developing Countries”, examines a range of zero-carbon bunker fuel options that are considered to be major contributors to shipping’s decarbonized future: biofuels, hydrogen and ammonia, and synthetic carbon-based fuels. The comparison shows that green ammonia and green hydrogen strike the most advantageous balance of favorable features due to their lifecycle GHG emissions, broader environmental factors, scalability, economics, and technical and safety implications. Furthermore, the report finds that many countries, including developing countries, are very well positioned to become future suppliers of zero-carbon bunker fuels—namely ammonia and hydrogen. By embracing their potential, these countries would be able to tap into an estimated $1+ trillion future fuel market while modernizing their own domestic energy and industrial infrastructure. However, strategic policy interventions are needed to unlock these potentials. -
Publication
Charting a Course for Decarbonizing Maritime Transport: Summary for Policymakers and Industry
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-15) Englert, Dominik ; Losos, AndrewAs the backbone of global trade, international maritime transport connects the world and facilitates economic growth and development, especially in developing countries. However, producing around three percent of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and emitting around 15 percent of some of the world’s major air pollutants, shipping is a major contributor to climate change and air pollution. To mitigate its negative environmental impact, shipping needs to abandon fossil-based bunker fuels and turn to zero-carbon alternatives. This report, the “Summary for Policymakers and Industry,” summarizes recent World Bank research on decarbonizing the maritime sector. The analysis identifies green ammonia and hydrogen as the most promising zero-carbon bunker fuels within the maritime industry at present. These fuels strike the most advantageous balance of favorable features relating to their lifecycle GHG emissions, broader environmental factors, scalability, economics, and technical and safety implications. The analysis also identifies that LNG will likely only play a limited role in shipping’s energy transition due to concerns over methane slip and stranded assets. Crucially, the research reveals that decarbonizing maritime transport offers unique business and development opportunities for developing countries. Developing countries with large renewable energy resources could take advantage of the new and emerging future zero-carbon bunker fuel market, estimated at over $1 trillion, to establish new export markets while also modernizing their own domestic energy and industrial infrastructure. However, strategic policy interventions are needed to hasten the sector’s energy transition. -
Publication
The Role of LNG in the Transition Toward Low- and Zero-Carbon Shipping
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-15) Englert, Dominik ; Losos, Andrew ; Raucci, Carlo ; Smith, TristanDue to its much lower air pollution and potential greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions benefits, liquefied natural gas (LNG) is frequently discussed as a fuel pathway towards greener maritime transport. While LNG’s air quality improvements are undeniable, there is debate within the sector as to what extent LNG may be able to contribute to decarbonizing shipping. This report, “The Role of LNG in the Transition Toward Low- and Zero-Carbon Shipping,” considers the potential of LNG to play either a transitional role, in which existing LNG infrastructure and vessels could continue to be used with compatible zero-carbon bunker fuels after 2030, or a temporary one, in which LNG would be rapidly supplanted by zero-carbon alternatives from 2030. Over concerns about methane leakage, which could diminish or even offset any GHG benefits associated with LNG, and additional capital expenditures, the risk of stranded assets as well as a technology lock-in, the report concludes that LNG is unlikely to play a significant role in decarbonizing maritime transport. Instead, the research finds that LNG is likely to only be used in niche shipping applications or in its non-liquefied form as a feedstock to kickstart the production of zero-carbon bunker fuels when used in conjunction with carbon capture and storage technology. The research further suggests that new public policy in support of LNG as a bunker fuel should be avoided, existing policy support should be reconsidered, and methane emissions should be regulated. -
Publication
Regional Economic Impact Analysis of High Speed Rail in China : Step by Step Guide
(Washington, DC, 2014-06-25) World BankThis report reflects a two-stage work flow designed to fulfill the research objectives: stage one defined the methodology, and stages two tested this methodology and transferred the know-how to the China Railway Corporation and its consultants through case studies. Chapter two summarizes the theoretical framework within which regional economic impacts are discussed and quantified. Chapter three reviews current regional economic impact analyses in China. Chapter four summarizes the approach to practical regional impact assessment in other countries and reviews the relevance of the main methods in the Chinese context. Chapter five summarizes the work that has been carried out by the World Bank to date in estimating regional impacts in China. Chapter six develops a practical approach to quantifying the regional economic impacts of future HSR in China, including methods for data collection, surveys and interviews. Chapter seven presents the implementation of the methodology in the case studies and the interpretation of quantified model results. Chapter eight summarizes the conclusions and the recommendations for further work. In addition, appendices one to three provide further details about existing assessment studies and methodologies. Appendices four and five show the interview and survey forms. A separate report provides a step-by-step how-to guide for a regional economic impact assessment using a four zone generic example model, which as a simple numerical example complements the presentation of the case study applications on Changchun-Jilin HSR and the northern part of the Beijing-Shanghai HSR.