Other Infrastructure Study
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Publication
South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative: Uzbekistan Country Case Study
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)Uzbekistan is a resource-rich country with a relatively young population of 33 million, the largest in Central Asia. It is also a geographic pivot for the region, bordering all other Central Asian countries and Afghanistan, with transit connections in all directions. As a double landlocked country, it is uniquely dependent on these cross-border transport connections and on how well they work. It can also potentially be the largest market in Central Asia and given its sizeable young labor force and substantial agricultural and manufacturing capacity, a major regional exporter. This note attempts to highlight the potential economic impact of BRI on the Tajik economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented globally, the BRI is expected to achieve better transport connections and greater economic integration of participating BRI countries, discusses improvements in Tajikistan’s cross-border transport, electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, and assesses the potential impact of the completion of all BRI transport projects on Tajik shipment time. It further looks at the likely economic impact of BRI reductions in shipment time on exports, FDI and GDP, and the spatial distribution of benefits within the country and at how complementary polices can enhance the positive impact and mitigate risks. Finally, it examines the fiscal risk of Tajikistan’s scaling-up of investment in BRI transport projects in the coming years without undermining medium-term debt sustainability. -
Publication
South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative: Kazakhstan Country Case Study
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)Kazakhstan is an upper-middle income, resource rich country. Its ascent to upper-middle income status was propelled by rising oil production and booming oil prices which pushed the average annual rate to above 7 percent during 2000-2013. The halving of world oil prices and lower export demand since resulted in a sharp slowdown with an average annual GDP growth rate of 2.2 percent in 2014-17. Growth picked up modestly recently but remains a far cry from the levels seen in early 2000s. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic and the slump in commodity prices further dents the growth outlook. This note assesses the potential impact of BRI over connectivity and the Kazakh economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented globally, the BRI is expected to achieve better transport connections and greater economic integration of participating BRI countries, discusses improvements in Kazakhstan’s cross-border transport, electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, and the potential impact of the completion of BRI transport projects on lowering Kazakh shipment time. It further looks at the likely economic impact of BRI reductions in shipment time on exports, FDI and GDP, the within country regional distribution of that impact and how complementary polices can enhance the positive impact and reduce regional inequity. Finally, it also examines the fiscal risk of scaling-up investment in BRI projects in the coming years without undermining medium-term debt sustainability. -
Publication
South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative: Tajikistan Country Case Study
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)Tajikistan is the poorest country in the region despite strong growth for nearly two decades; sustaining growth in future will need substantially higher growth in private investment and exports. Its per capita income (GNI) is close to US$1,000 but nearly a third of its population, of around 9 million, live in poverty. Its growth of 6-7 percent per year since 2000 was fueled by growth in consumption and public investment, the latter driven mainly by rising remittances and export receipts from aluminum and cotton. Private investment and growth of other exports remained weak, and the fiscal situation, fragile for most of that period. Accordingly, the National Development Strategy 2030 (NDS) seeks to address those weaknesses. This note attempts to highlight the potential economic impact of BRI on the Tajik economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented globally, the BRI is expected to achieve better transport connections and greater economic integration of participating BRI countries, discusses improvements in Tajikistan’s cross-border transport, electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, and assesses the potential impact of the completion of all BRI transport projects on Tajik shipment time. It further looks at the likely economic impact of BRI reductions in shipment time on exports, FDI and GDP, and the spatial distribution of benefits within the country and at how complementary polices can enhance the positive impact and mitigate risks. Finally, it examines the fiscal risk of Tajikistan’s scaling-up of investment in BRI transport projects in the coming years without undermining medium-term debt sustainability. -
Publication
South Caucasus and Central Asia - The Belt and Road Initiative: Kyrgyz Republic Country Case Study
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)The Kyrgyz economy has been, since its earliest days, the most liberal and open among Central Asian countries resulting in an atypical structural transformation with limited productivity growth. It was the first Central Asian country to become a WTO member in 1998 and its trade share in GDP is the highest in the region. This is largely due to the flourishing cross-border trade with Kyrgyz Republic’s large markets, Dordoi and Kara-Su, intermediating large volumes of goods: importing goods through both formal and informal trade systems, mainly from China, and re-exporting (in few cases with some value-addition) most of that to other economies in the region. It has highly entrepreneurial traders and a logistics-system that caters well to this large ‘entrepot’ trade. Agriculture and light manufacturing have contributed to its exports. This note assesses the potential impact of BRI over connectivity and the Kazakh economy. It looks at how, if fully implemented globally, the BRI is expected to achieve better transport connections and greater economic integration of participating BRI countries, discusses improvements in Kazakhstan’s cross-border transport, electricity and ICT infrastructure to-date, and the potential impact of the completion of BRI transport projects on lowering Kazakh shipment time. It further looks at the likely economic impact of BRI reductions in shipment time on exports, FDI and GDP, the within country regional distribution of that impact and how complementary polices can enhance the positive impact and reduce regional inequity. Finally, it also examines the fiscal risk of scaling-up investment in BRI projects in the coming years without undermining medium-term debt sustainability. -
Publication
From Landlocked to Land-Linked: Unlocking the Potential of Lao-China Rail Connectivity
(World Bank, Vientiane, 2020)The Lao-China railway (also known as the Boten-Vientiane railway) is part of six international economic corridors under China’s belt and road initiative (BRI). As part of the BRI, the Vientiane-Boten railway connects Lao Peoples Democratic Republic (PDR) with not only China (and eventually Singapore) but also the entire BRI network. The railway section that connects Kunming in China with Vientiane in Lao PDR is under construction, with plans to build a railway terminal close to export processing zones (EPZs) and the logistics park in Vientiane. The Thai railway section is designed to carry passenger trains on a new high-speed network while moving cargo traffic to the old meter-gauge network, creating potential challenges for transloading goods and passengers. The Lao-China railway aims to create closer trade linkages between not only Lao PDR and China but also between all economies in the BRI, which is expected to lower trade costs and accelerate economic growth and poverty reduction in the region. To fully benefit from the railway investment, Lao PDR needs to develop efficient services and production along the railway corridor to outcompete maritime transport in terms of cost and time. Increased domestic and foreign private-sector investment will also require early information sharing with the private sector regarding planned railway operations. Policymakers need to adopt key policy reforms and build complementary infrastructure to connect production areas to the railway network. This study identifies key investments and policy reforms to maximize the benefits of the Vientiane-Boten railway for Lao PDR, demonstrating the complementarity of hard and soft infrastructure investments. -
Publication
Regional Economic Impact Analysis of High Speed Rail in China : Step by Step Guide
(Washington, DC, 2014-06-25)This report reflects a two-stage work flow designed to fulfill the research objectives: stage one defined the methodology, and stages two tested this methodology and transferred the know-how to the China Railway Corporation and its consultants through case studies. Chapter two summarizes the theoretical framework within which regional economic impacts are discussed and quantified. Chapter three reviews current regional economic impact analyses in China. Chapter four summarizes the approach to practical regional impact assessment in other countries and reviews the relevance of the main methods in the Chinese context. Chapter five summarizes the work that has been carried out by the World Bank to date in estimating regional impacts in China. Chapter six develops a practical approach to quantifying the regional economic impacts of future HSR in China, including methods for data collection, surveys and interviews. Chapter seven presents the implementation of the methodology in the case studies and the interpretation of quantified model results. Chapter eight summarizes the conclusions and the recommendations for further work. In addition, appendices one to three provide further details about existing assessment studies and methodologies. Appendices four and five show the interview and survey forms. A separate report provides a step-by-step how-to guide for a regional economic impact assessment using a four zone generic example model, which as a simple numerical example complements the presentation of the case study applications on Changchun-Jilin HSR and the northern part of the Beijing-Shanghai HSR. -
Publication
Regional Economic Impact Analysis of High Speed Rail in China : Main Report
(Washington, DC, 2014-06-25)This report reflects a two-stage work flow designed to fulfill the research objectives: stage one defined the methodology, and stages two tested this methodology and transferred the know-how to the China Railway Corporation and its consultants through case studies. Chapter two summarizes the theoretical framework within which regional economic impacts are discussed and quantified. Chapter three reviews current regional economic impact analyses in China. Chapter four summarizes the approach to practical regional impact assessment in other countries and reviews the relevance of the main methods in the Chinese context. Chapter five summarizes the work that has been carried out by the World Bank to date in estimating regional impacts in China. Chapter six develops a practical approach to quantifying the regional economic impacts of future HSR in China, including methods for data collection, surveys and interviews. Chapter seven presents the implementation of the methodology in the case studies and the interpretation of quantified model results. Chapter eight summarizes the conclusions and the recommendations for further work. In addition, appendices one to three provide further details about existing assessment studies and methodologies. Appendices four and five show the interview and survey forms. A separate report provides a step-by-step how-to guide for a regional economic impact assessment using a four zone generic example model, which as a simple numerical example complements the presentation of the case study applications on Changchun-Jilin HSR and the northern part of the Beijing-Shanghai HSR. -
Publication
Regional Impacts of High Speed Rail in China : Baseline Report for a Case Study of Yunfu in Guangdong Province
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-06-30)This paper contains an initial reconnaissance of the situation in Yunfu, prior to the NanGuang project construction. It provides a brief overview of the trajectory of economic development in Yunfu from an economy that was dominated by primary industries to that by secondary industries. The development of local transport infrastructure is reviewed, as is the more detailed structure of local industries, with special emphasis on dominant industrial sectors and the planned industrial parks. The experience of high speed rail development impact elsewhere was drawn upon to reflect on the possible regional economic outcomes that might emerge following the opening of the Nanning-Guangzhou high speed rail. The structure of and the approach to a before and after monitoring study is considered. The remainder of the paper is divided into six parts. Part two gives a brief overview of the economic development in Yunfu municipality since its establishment in 1994. Part three describes local transport links and infrastructure. Part four provides a description of the internal structure of local industries, with special emphasis on the dominant industrial sectors and the planned industrial parks. Part five discusses possible regional economic impacts associated with the forthcoming high-speed rail line and part six summarizes a proposal for the next steps. -
Publication
Regional Impacts of High Speed Rail in China : Spatial Proximity and Productivity in an Emerging Economy
(World Bank, Beijing, 2013-06-30)This paper contains an initial reconnaissance of the situation in Yunfu, prior to the NanGuang project construction. It provides a brief overview of the trajectory of economic development in Yunfu from an economy that was dominated by primary industries to that by secondary industries. The development of local transport infrastructure is reviewed, as is the more detailed structure of local industries, with special emphasis on dominant industrial sectors and the planned industrial parks. The experience of high speed rail development impact elsewhere was drawn upon to reflect on the possible regional economic outcomes that might emerge following the opening of the Nanning-Guangzhou high speed rail. The structure of and the approach to a before and after monitoring study is considered. The remainder of the paper is divided into six parts. Part two gives a brief overview of the economic development in Yunfu municipality since its establishment in 1994. Part three describes local transport links and infrastructure. Part four provides a description of the internal structure of local industries, with special emphasis on the dominant industrial sectors and the planned industrial parks. Part five discusses possible regional economic impacts associated with the forthcoming high-speed rail line and part six summarizes a proposal for the next steps. -
Publication
Tracks from the Past, Transport for the Future : China's Railway Industry 1990-2008 and Its Future Plans and Possibilities
(World Bank, 2009-05-01)This report describes and explains how, in the period 1990-2008, China's railway sector has contributed and responded to the incredibly challenging transport demands generated by China's economic development, and highlights the plans and possibilities that lie ahead. In 1949, China had only 22,000 km of poorly maintained and war-damaged railway line, less than 1,000 km of which was double-tracked with none being electrified. Since then, the government has transformed the railway sector into a vital element of China's national transport system and a key contributor to China's extraordinary record of economic growth. Today, China Rail is the second biggest carrier of rail freight and the biggest carrier of passenger transport in the world. It has the largest combined rail traffic task of any national railway system in the world, carrying about a quarter of the world's railway traffic on about seven percent of the global route-km of public railway. This paper describes how the Ministry of Railways, and its constituent regional railway administrations and other entities, have created a modern rail system by adopting proven international practices and technologies, giving them distinct Chinese characteristics, and adapting them to Chinese circumstances.