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Publication
Carbon Revenues From International Shipping: Enabling an Effective and Equitable Energy Transition - Summary for Policymakers
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-04-01)The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is currently considering developing market-based measures to meet the objectives of its Initial Strategy on the Reduction of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions from Ships (Initial IMO GHG Strategy). While market-based measures are to reduce GHG emissions from international shipping as a matter of priority, some types of market-based measures, e.g. carbon levies or a cap-and-trade scheme without free distribution of emissions allowances, can raise significant revenues—thereby enabling an additional set of actions. Strategically using these revenues also appears more favorable than applying exemptions to address important equity considerations. Hence, the study investigates the unique potential of revenue-raising market-based measures to enable an effective and equitable energy transition and explores three questions: What could carbon revenues from international shipping be used for, who could be the recipients of such revenues, and how can adequate management of carbon revenues from international shipping be imagined? The study considers seven main revenue use options, of which some revenue uses appear more aligned with guiding principles of the Initial IMO GHG Strategy and other key desirable features (e.g., ability to deliver greater climate and development outcomes) than others. The analysis also suggests that splitting carbon revenues between the shipping sector and the use outside the sector could be a viable way forward. As primary recipients of carbon revenues, governments appear to be most suitable given the often blurred links between companies and countries in international shipping. However, to maximize climate and development outcomes, a share of carbon revenues may also be channeled to the private sector, including the shipping industry. The report stresses that expertise and experience from existing climate finance funds and international development organizations offering trustee services could be leveraged to inform and operationalize the management of carbon revenues from international shipping and to minimize transaction costs. -
Publication
The Role of LNG in the Transition Toward Low- and Zero-Carbon Shipping
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-15)Due to its much lower air pollution and potential greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions benefits, liquefied natural gas (LNG) is frequently discussed as a fuel pathway towards greener maritime transport. While LNG’s air quality improvements are undeniable, there is debate within the sector as to what extent LNG may be able to contribute to decarbonizing shipping. This report, “The Role of LNG in the Transition Toward Low- and Zero-Carbon Shipping,” considers the potential of LNG to play either a transitional role, in which existing LNG infrastructure and vessels could continue to be used with compatible zero-carbon bunker fuels after 2030, or a temporary one, in which LNG would be rapidly supplanted by zero-carbon alternatives from 2030. Over concerns about methane leakage, which could diminish or even offset any GHG benefits associated with LNG, and additional capital expenditures, the risk of stranded assets as well as a technology lock-in, the report concludes that LNG is unlikely to play a significant role in decarbonizing maritime transport. Instead, the research finds that LNG is likely to only be used in niche shipping applications or in its non-liquefied form as a feedstock to kickstart the production of zero-carbon bunker fuels when used in conjunction with carbon capture and storage technology. The research further suggests that new public policy in support of LNG as a bunker fuel should be avoided, existing policy support should be reconsidered, and methane emissions should be regulated. -
Publication
The Potential of Zero-Carbon Bunker Fuels in Developing Countries
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-15)To meet the climate targets set forth in the International Maritime Organization’s Initial GHG Strategy, the maritime transport sector needs to abandon the use of fossil-based bunker fuels and turn toward zero-carbon alternatives which emit zero or at most very low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions throughout their lifecycles. This report, “The Potential of Zero-Carbon Bunker Fuels in Developing Countries”, examines a range of zero-carbon bunker fuel options that are considered to be major contributors to shipping’s decarbonized future: biofuels, hydrogen and ammonia, and synthetic carbon-based fuels. The comparison shows that green ammonia and green hydrogen strike the most advantageous balance of favorable features due to their lifecycle GHG emissions, broader environmental factors, scalability, economics, and technical and safety implications. Furthermore, the report finds that many countries, including developing countries, are very well positioned to become future suppliers of zero-carbon bunker fuels—namely ammonia and hydrogen. By embracing their potential, these countries would be able to tap into an estimated $1+ trillion future fuel market while modernizing their own domestic energy and industrial infrastructure. However, strategic policy interventions are needed to unlock these potentials. -
Publication
Charting a Course for Decarbonizing Maritime Transport: Summary for Policymakers and Industry
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-15)As the backbone of global trade, international maritime transport connects the world and facilitates economic growth and development, especially in developing countries. However, producing around three percent of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and emitting around 15 percent of some of the world’s major air pollutants, shipping is a major contributor to climate change and air pollution. To mitigate its negative environmental impact, shipping needs to abandon fossil-based bunker fuels and turn to zero-carbon alternatives. This report, the “Summary for Policymakers and Industry,” summarizes recent World Bank research on decarbonizing the maritime sector. The analysis identifies green ammonia and hydrogen as the most promising zero-carbon bunker fuels within the maritime industry at present. These fuels strike the most advantageous balance of favorable features relating to their lifecycle GHG emissions, broader environmental factors, scalability, economics, and technical and safety implications. The analysis also identifies that LNG will likely only play a limited role in shipping’s energy transition due to concerns over methane slip and stranded assets. Crucially, the research reveals that decarbonizing maritime transport offers unique business and development opportunities for developing countries. Developing countries with large renewable energy resources could take advantage of the new and emerging future zero-carbon bunker fuel market, estimated at over $1 trillion, to establish new export markets while also modernizing their own domestic energy and industrial infrastructure. However, strategic policy interventions are needed to hasten the sector’s energy transition.