SPEND BETTER, SPEND MORE How to Make Education Expenditures Count for Children in Pakistan Juan D. Barón, Mary Bend, Fahad Mirza, Nimra Afzal, Hirut Wolde, Nadeem Hussain South Asia Region Education Global Practice The World Bank ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report was the product of a concerted effort by a World Bank Education Global Practice task team under the Data and Research in Education (DARE) trust fund, facilitated by the Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office (FCDO). Led by Senior Economist Juan D. Barón, the team phone survey, and the views and opinions of nearly comprised Mary (May) Bend, Fahad Mirza, Nimra 2,000 households across Pakistan about the state of Afzal, Hirut Wolde, and Nadeem Hussain, who Pakistan’s education system. contributed substantial technical inputs, data analysis, We are also appreciative of the support, facilitation, recommendations, and content development for the technical and policy knowledge, and continuous report. Elizabeth Salud and Insiya Syed provided design support of our World Bank colleagues, including Toby and photography, respectively. Special thanks to Maria Linden, Izza Farrakh, Maliha Hyder, Inga Afanasieva, Qazi who supported the poverty analysis in the report. Elena Roseo, Puteri Watson, Irfan Muzzafar, Saqib This report has benefited from innumerable Farooq, Mariem Rahim, Nimra Tariq, Jessica Lee, discussions over four years of policy dialogue with Ariana Maria Del Mar Grossi, and Daniela Monsalve provincial and federal governments, local and Farias, among many others. We thank colleagues international development partners, private sector, civil Uzma Quresh and Mishka Zaman for connecting us society organizations, and other stakeholders committed with civil society organizations during consultations. to improve education for all children in Pakistan. We thank the entire Pakistan Education team, previous and present, as well as other colleagues, including For enriching our consultations, we express our Gul Najam Jamy, Amjad Zafar Khan, and Koen Geven, gratitude to the Additional Secretary and the who were always available to answer a plethora of Coordination & Implementation Lead at the Ministry questions. Valuable inputs and comments to the of Federal Education & Professional Training (MOFEPT), report were provided by analysts and experts, such Secretaries from Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as Nadia Naviwala, Umar Nadeem, Mosharraf Zaidi, and Balochistan Education Departments and staff from Munazza Gillani, Baela Raza Jamil, Salman Naveed, Zia all provincial Planning and Development Departments, Akhter Abbas, and many others. We apologize if we research firms, civil society organizations, and are missing any colleagues but we reassure you that international development partners including FCDO, your contributions enriched the report. To all of you, UNICEF, UNHCR, USAID, and JICA, among others. thank you. Representatives from Idara-e-Taleem-o-Aagahi (ITA), Institute of Social & Policy Sciences (I-SAPS), Tabadlab, Finally, this report would not have been possible Cambridge Partnership for Education (CPE), and Pak without the direct and unwavering support of Alliance for Maths & Science (PAMS); civil society Najy Benhassine (Country Director), Nicole Klingen organizations like Malala Fund, Pakistan Coalition for (Regional Director for Human Development), Gailius Education (PCE), Global Sightsavers, and Special Talent Draugelis (Country Manager), and Hnin Pyne (Program Exchange Program (STEP) all provided valuable input Leader for Human Development). Special thanks during consultations. We extend our heartfelt gratitude to Keiko Inoue (Education Program Manager) for to all those who contributed to the report in different continuous support and encouragement. Special capacities. The report was enriched by technical inputs thanks also to Faizal Bari (Dean LUMS School of from Freya Perry and Saima Anwer, both Education Education), Adnan Ghumman (Senior Economist, Advisors at the FCDO. World Bank), and Flora Kelmendi (Senior Economist, World Bank) who served as peer reviewers. The report incorporated parental and household perspectives on education financing in Pakistan, thanks to Ipsos Pakistan and Lauren Nicole Dahlin, AT TRIBUTION Barón, Juan D., Mary Bend, Fahad Mirza, Nimra Afzal, a consultant at the World Bank. Our analysis was Hirut Wolde, and Nadeem Hussain. 2023. Spend Better, Spend More: enhanced by their data collection efforts via a national How to Make Education Expenditures Count for Children in Pakistan. Washington, DC: World Bank. ii ii IN THIS REPORT → Executive Summary iv Introduction 12 01 Overview of the 16 Education System in Pakistan 02 Education Financing 31 and Spending 03 Efficiency in the Education 48 Sector in Pakistan 04 Equity in Pakistan’s Education 63 05 System Management 88 and Coordination 06 Parents and Civil Society 104 07 Conclusion and 118 Recommendations DISC L AIMER This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes, and other information shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The citation of works authored by others does not mean the World Bank endorses the views expressed by those authors or the content of their works. iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Over the last few decades, Pakistan has made great strides in strengthening its education system. Pakistan has expanded free and In the long term, this leads to reduced compulsory education to millions of human capital and stunted economic students and increased female school productivity and growth. To address these attendance. Punjab alone doubled the issues, the country needs to rethink its number of 6- to 15-year-old children in approach to education financing. But school to 26 million between 1998 and implementing the policies needed to 2020. The country has also introduced strengthen the efficiency and effectiveness innovative reforms, most notably, merit- of the education system is a complex task. based recruitment of teachers and strategic There are no easy solutions to fix many of use of public-private partnerships (PPPs) the system’s deficiencies. to support the expansion of the system The country’s education challenges and improve teaching. All of these reforms have been exacerbated by the global have been underpinned by a significant pandemic, the 2022 floods, and the current increase in data availability and active political climate, which have hindered the participation of civil society organizations, introduction of vital reforms. Facing large promoting transparency and inclusivity fiscal deficits, high inflation, and a pressing in the education system. Pakistan’s need to stabilize the economy, Pakistan cumulative efforts, marked by an openness finds itself in a precarious position. Within to experimentation and research, have this context, chances may appear slim for laid a solid foundation for sustained finding budgetary support and political improvement in its education system. momentum for a comprehensive overhaul Yet the country still has a long way to of the education system. However, the go. Pakistan’s education spending falls country’s urgent need for education reform below the average for South Asia, and the is underscored by the erosion of human results show. The country has the second- capital caused by the COVID-19 pandemic3 highest number of out-of-school children and floods4, and compounded by already (OOSC) worldwide, at 20.3 million.1 Eight low learning levels prior to these crises. out of every 10 children in Pakistan cannot Pakistan cannot afford to fall further behind understand a basic short text by age 10, in building the human capital critical to reflecting a high level of learning poverty.2 driving economic growth. iv We propose a comprehensive reform agenda focused on EXECUTIVE SUMMARY enhancing Pakistan’s efficiency in public education expenditure, with an emphasis on improving children’s learning outcomes. The suggested reforms are built around five Key Messages related to education spending: the need for (1) adequacy, (2) efficiency, (3) equity in spending; (4) improved management and coordination; and (5) greater involvement by parents and civil society. The reforms linked to these messages Reforms should be prioritized to reflect are diverse, reflecting different cost the challenges and realities of what can structures and tailored approaches. realistically be achieved under current Most draw upon proven initiatives within economic conditions. In this report, we Pakistan, capitalizing on their evidence propose a method of prioritizing policy of impact, but some demand a bolder recommendations based on five factors— approach. While these recommendations two considerations and three constraints. may require significant investment up Given the urgent need to pivot the system front, they would aim to sustainably resolve toward a path that delivers for children critical inefficiencies within the system. and to increase efficiency of expenditures As such, their results would be enduring in education, it is essential to consider and pay substantial dividends year after whether the reform can start in the short year. By tackling fundamental issues in term, and what potential efficiency gains the education system, the proposed can be achieved in the medium term. We reforms promise not only to rectify also identify three specific constraints5 that existing inefficiencies but also to lay the may influence policy implementation: the groundwork for a continuous program of fiscal costs associated with the reforms, the improvement and expansion. complexity of executing them within the unique context of Pakistan, and the level of A successful reform agenda necessarily political buy-in required to carry them out. involves multiple levels of government, and the recommendations within this The reform agenda recommended in this proposed agenda call for action at all report draws from existing evidence at tiers of government: national, provincial, local and global levels, implementation and district. While the education systems knowledge, global insights, and findings across provinces vary in maturity, many face within the report itself to classify each similar challenges, albeit, varying in degree. intervention. 6 If Pakistan currently cannot Many of the reforms suggested here offer implement a comprehensive menu of multiple benefits to the education system. policies to enhance the efficiency and For instance, a specific recommendation effectiveness of public expenditure for might enhance teacher effectiveness, while education, it could prioritize those that can also bridging equity gaps and fostering start soon and deliver the most efficiency greater transparency within the sector. gains. This approach would use a similar amount of funding as currently budgeted. It is also flexible enough to account for the fact that education systems of different provinces are at varying stages of development and to allow for distinct paths of improvement for each. 01 KEY MESSAGES : OVERVIEW EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This overview lists the five Key Messages. Each message is followed by specific recommendations for action, targeting key areas where the education sector’s efficiency can be enhanced and facilitate system expansion when economically possible. The final chapter of the report provides the prioritization framework to guide the sequence and timing of these actions. 01 02 ADEQUACY EFFICIENCY Pakistan needs to spend Pakistan needs to spend more on education. The better on education. Pakistan’s country’s low allocation is education spending fails to contributing to high dropout secure the quality and access rates, learning poverty, reduced enjoyed by other countries in human capital, and stunted part due to a misallocation of economic growth. Pakistan financial and human resources. must increase education It can make spending more spending to at least 4.3% of GDP efficient by improving the from 2.1% in 2020 to achieve impact of major recurrent its commitment to provide budget items, such as teacher free compulsory education to effectiveness, among other children ages 5­‑16. actions. 02 03 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EQUITY Inequities are reinforced by the way educational funds are allocated. Low, inefficient spending has led to an inequitable provision of 05 education services, affecting children from poor families and PARENTS AND other disadvantaged groups. CIVIL SOCIETY Pakistan can boost equity by using data to create targeted Empower parents and civil initiatives and adopting an society with voice, support, inclusive approach in its budget and participatory mechanisms. process. The current level of engagement of parents and community stakeholders in education- 04 budgeting decisions often MANAGEMENT falls short. Establishing formal platforms for participation AND can improve the effectiveness COORDINATION of budgetary and policy- making processes in Pakistan’s Enhanced sector management and education system. coordination can improve services and the efficiency of public sector spending. After more than a decade of devolution to the provinces, some problems have emerged, including inefficient teacher deployment. Solutions include improving education management information system (EMIS), strengthening stakeholder coordination, and reducing bureaucratic duplication. 03 KEY MESSAGE 01 ADEQUACY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Pakistan needs to spend upon increases in overall budgets (as a percentage of GDP) could set Pakistan on more on education. track to fulfill this obligation. To augment In 2020, the country spent 2.1% of gross expenditure on education, Pakistan domestic product (GDP) on education, needs to bolster government revenues below the South Asian regional average through enhanced fiscal efforts and of 2.9% and the global average of 4.3%. internal negotiations regarding the revenue Alarmingly, Pakistan’s expenditure distribution of the 8th National Finance decreased to 1.5% in 2023. Such Commission (NFC) Award.7 investment is inadequate for achieving its constitutional pledge to provide free and Allocation compulsory education to children ages How should the increased funding be 5­–16. The consequences of inadequate allocated? Priority could go to expanding spending are apparent in the country’s access to quality education with well- high numbers of OOSC, the learning prepared teachers by continuing to poverty rate, and stunted economic strengthen the public sector. Other growth. Pakistan needs to rethink its options include enhancing PPPs, guided approach to education financing, increase by robust regulation; making optimal use government revenue, and gradually raise of current infrastructure, for instance, by its education expenditure to at least 4.3% implementing double shifts; and promoting of GDP to ensure access to a higher quality coordinated, targeted expansion in tandem of education. This is more important than with the Benazir Income Support Program ever with new census data confirming a (BISP) and education foundations for data- higher fertility rate that will bring more driven growth, thereby maximizing the children than expected into the education impact of resources, including conditional system in the near future. cash transfers. It is also essential to expand early childhood education (ECE) in a progressive and strategic way to ensure Recommendations children are ready to begin school on time. This will require investing in ECE access and quality, including recruiting new teachers Spending and providing effective training, defining Even with the most efficient allocation sustainable modalities for programs, and of resources, Pakistan cannot deliver on strengthening regulation. Finally, improving its commitment to free and compulsory technological and managerial systems will education without additional funding. To allow for more efficient and effective use ensure that all children attend school and of new resources. Implementing these are learning, the government must invest strategies will ensure that any increase an amount equivalent to between 4.3% in the education budget is utilized to its and 5.4% of GDP in education. While this fullest potential. is a formidable figure, annually agreed- 04 KEY MESSAGE 02 EFFICIENCY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Pakistan needs to spend practices directly bolsters system efficiency by improving student outcomes. A key better on education. part of this strategy involves improving Pakistan’s education spending fails to teacher recruitment, management, and secure the quality and access enjoyed by development, including evaluation and other countries with similar education promotion. Establishing a comprehensive budgets. One reason is because human career pathway for teachers can foster and financial resources are not directed to their continuous improvement, maximizing where they are most needed: About 70% their impact in the classroom. Leadership of the budget is allocated to salaries and roles at schools and within districts should only about 10% to development—and the be clearly delineated and supported. And latter is usually not fully executed. System- teacher deployment policies should seek management challenges hinder delivery of to ensure equitable distribution across support to teachers in the public system, schools and educational levels, with clear affecting student learning and decreasing guidelines issued on teacher incentives and parents’ desire to send their children to absenteeism consequences. This will also public school. Given the country’s limited provide a barrier to political patronage. fiscal space, Pakistan must prioritize Focusing on pedagogical practices in early- enhancing the efficiency of its educational grade reading and writing, complemented expenditure. It could do so by improving by relevant learning materials, promises the impact of major recurrent budget both immediate and long-term efficiency items, particularly teacher effectiveness; gains. Teachers can also benefit from eliminating duplicative departmental structured in-service training, ongoing mandates; improving management; feedback, and access to quality resources. ensuring full execution of development It is essential to ensure that middle and budgets; and ultimately, focusing on and secondary school teachers possess strengthening learning. deep subject-matter expertise, and that schools with multigrade classrooms—a necessary reality for many—offer authentic Recommendations multigrade teaching. This requires clear policies, specialized teacher training, Teachers clear guidelines on the materials to use, Given the sizeable share of the budget and ongoing monitoring and evaluation. dedicated to teacher salaries, the most Also, reviewing and revamping preservice impactful way to enhance system efficiency teacher training practices can drive long- is by strengthening teacher effectiveness term system improvements. in the classroom. Improving teaching (Recommendations continue on next page.) 05 KEY MESSAGE 02 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EFFICIENCY (continued) Learning Financing and budgeting To enhance learning, it is vital to embrace Improvements in efficiency will remain teaching methods that have been elusive for Pakistan without incorporating shown to yield significant results both proper financial and budgetary processes internationally and within Pakistan. Some and strategies into the reform agenda. evidence-based strategies that have Defining clear targets and consistently positively impacted learning outcomes monitoring progress in alignment with in Pakistan and other countries can be realistic sector plans could help bridge found in initiatives such as the Pakistan the gap between available funding and Reading Program and in teaching educational objectives. Leveraging existing training programs such as The Citizens data for budget planning contributes to Foundation’s training for teachers and more efficient resource allocation while leaders. Children must also be able to discouraging inappropriate external comprehend classroom instruction. influences in the process. A comprehensive Given Pakistan’s linguistic diversity, clear review of the 8th NFC Award is imperative, policies regarding language use in schools specifically regarding the introduction are crucial, as is their implementation by of incentives-linked education financing the public sector. A transparent mother- at both federal and provincial levels. tongue policy, including communication Strengthening education department with parents, will facilitate a smoother personnel’s capacity in budget planning, transition to designated instructional monitoring, and procurement can ensure languages. Lastly, campaigns can help optimal utilization of limited development ensure children begin school at the budgets each year. A transition to right age and with the skills to thrive, by development planning at the school promoting effective parenting practices, level and program- and school-centric especially in early reading, as well as by budgeting, with continuous engagement progressively mobilizing funds to expand with finance departments to secure timely early childhood education. Achieving fund release, can bolster school leadership system-level improvements in learning and ensure that funds are addressing through evidence-based programs will foundational infrastructure and other require the alignment of curriculum, specific needs of schools. assessment, language policies, and teaching. 06 KEY MESSAGE 03 EQUIT Y EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Recommendations Resources To enhance equity, Pakistan could reevaluate its existing mechanisms that Inequities are reinforced by address disparities in expenditure per the way educational funds are child, establishing targets and monitoring processes to reduce such differences. By allocated. using clear formulas anchored in data and The combination of low and inefficient principles of equity and inclusion, resources spending leads to inequitable provision can be directed where they are most of educational services across regions needed. Programs could be tailored to and among different population groups. cater to populations that have traditionally This especially affects the enrollment, been marginalized, such as children in progression, and learning outcomes of rural-area school systems that lack middle disadvantaged populations, including schools (up to grade 8) and postprimary- children from low-income families, those school-age children in these regions that living in remote areas, girls, children with have a prevalence of dropping out of disabilities, and minorities. Persistent school. Effective, long-term strategies educational inequalities prevent individuals might encompass recruiting teachers from making full societal contributions and from local communities, diversifying perpetuate cycles of poverty. Although data school calendars to cater to all children, exist that highlight these disparities, they formalizing multigrade teaching where often are not used during budget planning, needed, and identifying cost-effective leaving these inequities unaddressed. programs for children with disabilities. To Pakistan can ensure a more equitable ensure the programs’ viability, it is vital distribution of resources by using data for to establish targets that align with these targeted initiatives, enhancing districts’ budgets. technical and managerial capacity, and incorporating an inclusive perspective into Girls budget processes. Any decisions to expand Ensuring safe spaces for girls by building the education system should consider boundary walls, hiring female teachers, the potential equity impact of supporting and providing proper water, sanitation and private versus public schools. hygiene (WASH) facilities can significantly improve gender equity. Emphasizing female well-being can also help, including providing safe transportation for female teachers and students and offering life skills and other cocurricular activities. These measures not only can enhance girls’ learning but also enable them to leverage their education to positively impact their families and communities. 07 KEY MESSAGE 04 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY MANAGEMENT AND COORDINATION Enhanced sector management their families. Often, teachers, districts, and government departments lack the and coordination can improve capacity, authority, and incentives to align services and the efficiency of their actions toward a system that ensures public sector spending. quality education. To address these issues, Pakistan must prioritize improving the After a decade of devolution to the management and execution of policies provinces, it is important to understand related to significant budget portions how the education system has evolved. that impact many children. There are Several issues have become apparent: specific managerial and policy decisions inefficient teacher distribution and essential for systemwide enhancement as deployment; poorly implemented, de well as areas for transformative action in facto multigrade teaching in many schools; management and coordination, including lack of targeted budgetary allocations; and data management and use, stakeholder duplication of efforts at both provincial and coordination, decentralization of authorities federal levels. The result is low levels of to lower levels of government, and investment efficacy and failure to provide inclusive education. high-quality services for children and It is important to prioritize improving the management and execution of policies related to significant budget portions that impact many children. 08 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Decentralization Recommendations With the 18th Amendment giving more autonomy to provincial education Data management authorities starting in 2010, now is a Pakistan has a wealth of data, but there timely opportunity to assess the federal is an urgent need to improve data and provincial education systems. A management, specifically the EMIS. comprehensive review of all education The emphasis should be on integration, departments and initiatives can pinpoint transparency, and regular and timely duplication and opportunities for realigning utilization of EMIS data for planning and programs and bureaucratic structures to targeting at national, provincial, and district enhance efficiency. Such a review can also levels. Tapping into the full potential of this assess system capacities, quality assurance, data can bolster system improvement. For and costing protocols for inputs such as instance, presenting budget and execution textbooks and pedagogical materials, data in citizen-friendly formats could and the efficacy of school supervision. As foster public understanding and spotlight decentralization continues from provincial areas where funds could be directed for to district level, provinces could adopt maximum impact. rule-based mechanisms to govern funds transfers, making district-level funding Coordination more transparent, predictable, and need- Streamlining coordination mechanisms, at based. Adding a results-based component both the national and provincial level, can to resource-allocation formulas could spur knowledge exchange on best practices further incentivize districts to perform. and policies. By involving education foundations and literacy departments Inclusive education within provinces, resources can be It is essential to amplify the government’s employed more efficiently. dedication to inclusive education. Strategic public campaigns via social media, television, radio, and grassroots community interactions can spotlight the importance of education, advocate for marginalized children, and elevate the perception of public schools. 09 KEY MESSAGE 05 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY PARENTS AND CIVIL SOCIET Y Empower parents and civil a dominant provider of education in many regions of Pakistan. The absence of formal society with voice, support, and platforms that promote active parental participatory mechanisms. participation and collaboration with various Parents have an intrinsic motivation to governmental tiers creates a disconnect support their children’s education, and between the education system and the their involvement can act as a shield communities it serves. This can lead to against poor education-sector decisions. a lack of accountability in the education However, the current level of engagement system, potentially increasing susceptibility of parents and community stakeholders to political influence, resource misallocation, in Pakistan’s budgetary decisions often and erosion of the social contract. To falls short. Parents’ concerns remain rectify this, it is essential to engage and underrepresented, even as families pay empower parents, teachers, and civil society high out-of-pocket expenses for uniforms organizations, so they can participate in and other school-related costs, or opt budgetary and other processes and help for expensive private schools, which are ensure that the education system reflects seen as offering a superior education. local values and needs. Indeed, the private sector has emerged as The absence of formal platforms that promote active parental participation and collaboration with various governmental tiers creates a disconnect between the education system and the communities it serves. 10 Budgetary process EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Recommendations Analysis of budget proposals offers an opportunity for collaboration among civil Testing and evaluation society, academia, and the public sector. A foundational step toward strengthening Given that budgets tend to be lengthy the involvement of parents and civil society and intricate, academics can help to in the education system is by ensuring that clarify the goals, targets, and incentives national diagnostic student assessments behind budgetary proposals and facilitate occur regularly. The assessments can a more expansive dialogue with parent include citizen-led and official government associations and other civic groups that evaluations, and international assessments could result in more effective resource conducted every few years. Such routine allocation. The formal introduction of checks not only measure student progress platforms fostering government and civil but also can provide an indication of the society cooperation can maximize the effectiveness of the education system. The benefits of this collaboration and give dissemination of results should be paired parents and society greater influence over with actionable plans aimed at addressing budgetary decisions. Ways to participate any weaknesses and improving learning include through citizen participatory budget outcomes in the public sector. With access processes at education departments and to such data, parents and civil society will budgetary discussions at Local Education be better informed about, and are likely Group meetings, where the public sector to get involved in, the education system, could garner feedback and innovative both by engaging with different levels of ideas before finalizing budgets. Continued government on policy decisions and by engagement with civil society after budgets supporting children’s learning at home. receive approval can ensure that resources are executed on time and can pave the way for potential technical collaboration aimed at improving policy and execution. Strengthening the role of communications teams and media to distill messaging on complex budgeting decisions can also help to empower families to be more engaged in budgetary processes. SECTION NOTES 1 The Pakistan Education Statistics report for 4 Barón et al. (2022); Dahlin and Barón (2023). 2021-2022 estimates the population of OOSC to be 5 Schady et al. (2023). 26.2 million. In this report, we use our own estimations and rates calculated from the Pakistan Social and 6 Banerjee et al. (2023). Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) data, as this 7 The National Finance Commission (NFC) Award is approach enables further analysis of the reasons why a constitutional arrangement in Pakistan, designed children are not attending school. Once released, the to distribute financial resources among the federal Pakistan Population Census 2023 data will provide the government and the provinces. most accurate count of OOSC in the country. 2 Learning poverty is a World Bank metric that estimates the percentage of 10-year-olds who can read and understand a paragraph of age-appropriate text. OOSC are automatically counted as illiterate. (World Bank 2022). 3 ASER Pakistan (2021). 11 INTRODUCTION Over the last three decades, Pakistan has expanded free and compulsory education to millions of students and increased female students’ attendance at school. Punjab alone doubled the number of 6- to 15-year-old children in school to 26 million between 1998 and 2020. The country has also introduced innovative reforms, most notably, merit-based recruitment of teachers and strategic use of public-private partnerships (PPPs) to support the expansion of the system and improve teaching. In addition, the government has increased data availability and encouraged active participation of civil society organizations, promoting transparency and inclusivity and establishing a foundation for sustained improvement in the education system. These laid a solid foundation for sustained improvement in its education system. To unlock Pakistan’s potential for economic children in Pakistan are not learning nearly growth and prosperity, it is fundamental to as much as they could and should. These address systemic educational issues, most challenges create a formidable barrier to notably the alarming numbers of out-of- the nation’s growth and the prosperity of its school children (OOSC) and pervasively people. low learning levels. Even when in school, 12 Adding a layer of complexity to these seeks to provide robust, evidence-based educational challenges is the critically policy recommendations that can enhance low public expenditure on education resource allocation in ways proven to in Pakistan. Pakistan has invested about improve educational outcomes. 2.0% of its gross domestic product (GDP) This report uses a diverse and innovative in education, leaving most of the cost of INTRODUCTION set of data sources to provide a education to families who make great comprehensive narrative about education efforts to send their children to school, expenditures and their impact on and who consistently opt out of the educational outcomes. These sources public sector when they can afford private include household surveys, phone surveys, schools. More concerning is the fact that international student assessments, public investment in education has been administrative data, and local and global declining for the last three years. As of research (see Box 6 on page 29). By December 2023, data show that public drawing on these multiple sources of data, expenditure was roughly 1.7% of GDP. For the report can provide a comprehensive Pakistan to give itself an opportunity for and nuanced narrative of the efficiency, productivity, growth, social inclusion, and equity, and overall effectiveness of prosperity, it needs to invest efficiently in education financing in Pakistan today. The education to provide better opportunities report’s findings are based on rigorous to its citizens. analysis of these data sources and provide Since Pakistan approved the 18th valuable insights into the challenges and Amendment to the Constitution (2010), opportunities facing Pakistan’s education education provision in the country has system. changed. The amendment has empowered The intended audience for this report is provinces to deliver education services policy makers, stakeholders, and parents directly. These changes have spurred who are interested in understanding the investigations into the effectiveness and status of the education system and the efficiency of the mechanisms that have economic decisions and dynamics that been created for financing education and underpin children’s learning outcomes. the institutions that deliver it. This report The report is straightforward and concise, contributes to this inquiry by offering making it accessible to a wide range of insights into the education system as it readers. The complexity of the subject is stands today. distilled to five key components, providing Pakistan needs a comprehensive reform a useful resource for those who want agenda that involves both improvement to be more informed about the status in the efficiency of current spending and of education in Pakistan, its financing, an increase in education expenditure and what it would take to improve the overall. By spending better, the country education system. can achieve more with existing funding, The reform agenda proposed in this report ensuring maximum impact for every rupee is comprehensive and necessary. There spent. By spending more, it can marshal are no easy solutions for the magnitude of the resources needed to enhance access the challenges Pakistan faces in improving to quality education across the nation, its education system. High debt levels, especially for subgroups of the population high inflation, and grim economic growth that are being left behind. For parents, in the medium term make investments stakeholders, and the broader public to in education more important, not less. trust and support an increase in education Education is not social assistance; it is expenditure, they need to see a tangible an investment for long-term prosperity, link between spending and improved opportunity, social cohesion, and inclusion. educational outcomes. Hence, this report 13 BOX 1 Benchmarking Pakistan Education Systems The graphs in this box illustrate how Pakistan compares to similar large, federal countries, some of which have upper middle-income economies (Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico) or others which have lower-income economies (Bangladesh). Figure B1.1. Government expenditure on Government expenditure on education as a In terms of government expenditure on education as a percentage percentage of GDP in 2020 of GDP (%) in 2020 education as a percentage of GDP, Pakistan allocates a relatively low share compared to Indonesia, Mexico, and Brazil, but has a more similar share to that of Bangladesh. 5.8% There are some stark differences in the 4.6% percentage of enrollment in private 3.5% institutions, with some countries such as Bangladesh, being able to expand 2.1% secondary schooling primarily through 1.8% the private sector. This is especially true throughout the South Asia region, where Bangladesh Pakistan Indonesia Mexico Brazil the private sector has played a key role in expanding educational access.1 Source: UNESCO UIS Database. Pakistan spends quite a large percentage of its total public expenditures on teacher Figure B1.2. Percentage of enrollment salaries, roughly the same amount as in primary and secondary education Mexico, and nearly 20 percentage points Percentage of enrolment in primary and secondary education in private in private institutions institutions (%) in 2017 in 2017 greater than Argentina, an upper middle- income country. Primary education Secondary education Figure B1.3. Teaching staff compensation as a percentage of total expenditure in public Government expenditure on education as a 93.9% institutions in 2019 percentage of GDP (%) in 2020 72% 73% 41.5% 35.0% 32.1% 55% 21.4% 17.8% 21.9% 45% 13.7% 9.3% 13.1% Bangladesh Brazil Indonesia Mexico Pakistan Source: UNESCO UIS Database. Bangladesh Argentina Pakistan Mexico Source: BOOST Database based on data from Pakistan Ministry of Finance and UNESCO UIS Database. 1 Béteille et al. (2020). 14 INTRODUCTION This report is divided into the following sections: Section 01 provides a brief description of the system and its main aggregate outcomes. Section 02 discusses the financing of education in Pakistan. Section 03 discusses issues of efficiency within the system, and Section 04 discusses equity challenges, both deeply linked to financing. Section 05 provides an explanation of the drivers behind the outcomes we observe, allowing data driven identification of opportunities to improve education spending. Section 06 provides insights into parents’ view of education and the influence they have on the future of their children. This section emphasizes the importance of engagement by both parents and civil society to ensure the education system delivers a quality education for their children. Section 07 closes the report with a proposed reform agenda, which takes into consideration the constraints that exist in the country now as well as those projected in the years to come. 15 01 OVERVIEW OF THE EDUCATION SYSTEM IN PAKISTAN From 1990 to 2020, Pakistan and other countries in South Asia significantly expanded their education systems. During this period, Pakistan’s primary completion rate (the proportion of children who complete primary education) rose from approximately 50% to 74%, lower secondary completion rate increased from 38% to 56%, and upper secondary completion rate grew from 16% to 26%. Despite this progress, Pakistan has been outpaced by every other South Asian country in expanding education (Figure 1.1). Pakistan stands out as the only country in the region where education expansion has averaged below 1 percentage point per year during the period,1 and it has the lowest completion rates in the region for every education level and at the aggregate level. 16 Primary: Timely completion India Primary: Ultimate completion Pakistan Bngldsh Figure 1.1. Completion rates, by country inPrimary: Timely completion South Asia, 1990–2020 Nepal Lower secondary: Timely completion Primary: Ultimate completion Lower secondary: Ultimate completion Primary . Timely completion Primary . Timely completion Primary: Timely completion Lower secondary: Timely completion Upper secondary: Timely completion Primary . Timely completion Primary . Timely completion Primary. Ultimate completion Primary. Ultimate completion Primary. Ultimate completion Primary. Ultimate completion Primary: Ultimate Lower secundary. Timely completioncompletion Lower secondary: Ultimate completion Lower secundary. Timely completion Lower secundary. Timely completion Upper secondary: Ultimate completion Lower secundary. Timely completion Lower secondary: Timely completion Upper secondary: Timely completion Lower secundary. Ultimate completion Lower secundary. Ultimate completion Lower secundary. Ultimate completion Lower secundary. Ultimate completion uper secondary . Timely completion uper secondary . Timely completion Pakistan Bangladesh India Nepal uper secondary . Timely completion uper secondary . Timely completion Lower secondary: uper secondary Ultimate completion . Ultimate completion Upper secondary: Ultimate uper secondary . Ultimate completion completion uper secondary . Ultimate completion uper secondary . Ultimate completion 100 Upper secondary: Timely completion 100 100 100 Upper secondary: Ultimate completion 90 90 90 90 80 80 80 80 01 OVERVIEW OF THE EDUCATION SYSTEM IN PAKISTAN 70 70 70 70 60 60 60 60 50 50 50 50 40 40 40 40 30 30 30 30 20 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 1990 2000 2010 2020 1990 2000 2010 2020 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: Authors’ estimates based on Global Education Monitoring Report 2021–2022. Note: Timely completion refers to the percentage of students who complete a certain level of education within the expected or standard number of years for that level. For example, if the standard time to complete primary education is six years, timely completion measures how many students finish primary education within those six years. Ultimate completion measures the percentage of students who eventually complete a certain level of education, regardless of the time taken. This metric includes those who may have taken longer than the standard number of years to finish their education. For example, if a student completes primary education in seven or more years instead of the standard six years, they are still counted in the ultimate completion rate. The slow expansion of education factoring in what children learn, the opportunities in Pakistan has contributed expected years of schooling in Pakistan are to low levels of human capital, as only 4.8 years, showing the ineffectiveness measured by the World Bank’s Human of the education system in achieving Capital Index (HCI). The HCI measures learning outcomes. The low HCI in Pakistan the amount of human capital that a child limits human development, productivity, born today can expect to attain by her and growth. 18th birthday, given the risks of incomplete Pakistani children are not learning the education and poor health that prevail in fundamentals. Learning poverty, the her birth country. Pakistan’s HCI of 0.41 percentage of children unable to read is low in absolute and relative terms. It is and understand a short, age-appropriate lower than South Asia’s average of 0.48, text by age 10, was 75% even before the with Nepal at 0.49 and Bangladesh at 0.46. COVID-19 pandemic. Estimates show that Pakistan’s human capital outcomes are learning poverty has increased to 77%, in comparable to countries in Sub-Saharan part due to school closures resulting from Africa, which have an average HCI value of the pandemic and direct and indirect 0.40. While a child in Pakistan who starts impacts of the 2022 floods. This low level school at age 4 can expect to complete of foundational learning has most likely 8.8 years of school by her 18th birthday, 17 contributed to high dropout rates, low subjects meaningfully, generate doubts in learning in other subjects, and overall parents about the usefulness of education, low educational achievement in later and facilitate the disengagement of families years. Learning poverty in Pakistan is also with the education system. exceptionally high relative to regional and One stark characteristic of Pakistan’s global comparator federal countries (Figure education system is the significant 1.2). number of OOSC, which is estimated The challenges in learning are not only at approximately 20.3 million. This prevalent in early literacy but also in early accounts for about 10% of the global total numeracy and science. In the 2019 Trends of OOSC, making Pakistan the second- 01 OVERVIEW OF THE EDUCATION SYSTEM IN PAKISTAN in International Mathematics and Science largest contributor to the nearly 250 Study (TIMSS) assessment for grade 4 math million children out of school worldwide, and science, 75% of students did not reach surpassed only by Nigeria (Figure 1.3). the minimum lowest benchmark. Only 20% Other countries with larger populations of students achieved the low benchmark, and at different stages of economic and a mere 1% of students reached the high development than Pakistan, such as India, benchmark. Notably, no students achieved China, Indonesia, and Brazil, have fewer the advanced benchmark in math, with children out of school. Solving the global similar results for science. Low learning issue of OOSC will require addressing this levels in foundational subjects impact significant challenge within Pakistan. the ability of students to engage in other Figure 1.2. Learning poverty in Pakistan: Regional and global perspective (a) South Asia region (selected countries) (b) Large federal countries (selected countries) 93.4% 77.0% 77.0% 58.2% 56.1% 58.2% 52.8% 47.6% 46.9% 14.8% Afghanistan Pakistan Bangladesh India Sri Lanka Pakistan Bangladesh Indonesia Mexico Brazil Source: Learning Poverty Country Briefs (World Bank 2023) Note: Panel (b) shows large countries with federal systems, except Bangladesh, at different levels of development. The federal structure imposes unique challenges for service delivery. 18 All Out of School Children (OOSC) from Primary to Upper Secondary in 2021 Figure 1.3. Countries Pakistan with more has the 1 than second largest Million number children that of areout-of-school children out of school in the world Nepal Malaysia 1,020,000 1,097,000 Burkina Faso Iraq Kenya 2,025,000 1,880,000 Uganda 2,830,000 Malawi USA Guatemala 4,323,000 1,204,000 1,095,000 1,079,000 Pakistan Philippines South Sudan 20,300,000 Chad 2,908,000 2,029,000 2,017,000 Zambia 1,309,000 Myanmar Benin 1,302,000 1,233,000 Sudan Ghana Mexico Guinea South Africa 4,933,000 2,032,000 2,017,000 1,738,000 1,510,000 Mali 3,152,000 01 OVERVIEW OF THE EDUCATION SYSTEM IN PAKISTAN Côte d’Ivoire Yemen Afghanistan Mozambique 2,247,000 2,151,000 2,145,000 2,042,000 Nigeria Niger 4,940,000 Angola 3,943,000 Cameroon Madagascar Brazil Senegal 20,680,000 2,472,000 2,397,000 2,258,000 2,255,000 Indonesia Tanzania Congo Bangladesh 7,511,000 7,010,000 5,992,000 5,509,000 143 other countries 26,153,912 India China Ethiopia 15,134,000 11,420,000 10,450,000 Source: Source: Authors’ estimates for Pakistan are based on census data from 2017 and for children ages 5 to 16. Out of School Children: UNESCO Global Education Monitoring Report (https://education−estimates.org/out−of−school/) Note: Note: Data on figure The only India uses shows figures countries of with Primary and more Lower than 1.0 million Secondary y Onl OOSC. Data for India include only primary and lower secondary education learners. The Pakistan Education Statistics report for 2021-2022 estimates the population of OOSC to be 26.2 million. See Box 2 on page 20 for different estimations of OOSC in Pakistan. The Pakistan Education Statistics report receiving no support from the public for 2021-2022 estimates the population sector.2 The expansion of private education of OOSC to be 26.2 million. In this report, in Pakistan began in the 1990s, doubling we use our own estimations and rates its share of students from 15% to 30% calculated from the Pakistan Social and between 1991 and 2001. This growth Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) data, continued, with private school enrollment as this approach enables further analysis of accounting for approximately 34% by the reasons why children are not attending 2008. 3 By the 2020s, Pakistan had one school. Once released, the Pakistan of the largest shares of private school Population Census 2023 data will provide enrollment in primary education in South the most accurate count of OOSC in the Asia, second only to India and trailing India country. (See Box 2 on page 20.) and Bangladesh in secondary education (Table 1.1). Compared with the global Private education is a notable aspect of averages of 19% for primary education the education system in Pakistan. A key and 27% for secondary education, the feature of the system is the substantial prevalence of the private sector in Pakistan number of students attending private is particularly striking. schools, with most of these schools 19 BOX 2 Measuring Out-of-School Children Taking an accurate count Table B2.1. Estimates of OOSC by source of the total number of out- OOSC Age of-school children (OOSC)  Source (in range millions) in Pakistan is a difficult task The Missing Third (2021) 20.1 5-16 given the various ways in 01 OVERVIEW OF THE EDUCATION SYSTEM IN PAKISTAN UNESCO 20.7 6-18 which data collection tools UNICEF (2016–17) 22.8 5-16 are designed. Pakistan Education 26.2 5-16 Statistics 2021-2022 For example, the Pakistan Education Pakistan Education Statistics report for 2021-2022 estimates 22.8 5-16 Statistics 2016-2017 the population of OOSC to be 26.2 million, Pakistan Education however, many researchers calculate Statistics 2017-2018, n.a.   estimations from the PSLM, as that 2018-19, 2019-20 approach enables further analysis of the reasons why children are not attending PSLM District Report   5-16 school. Once released, the Pakistan PSLM National Report   5-16 Population Census 2023 data will provide Policy Framework for the most accurate count of OOSC in the Pakistan’s Out-of- 18.7 5-16 country. School-Children (2020) Table 1.1. Share of enrollment in private schools, 2020 or later   Preprimary Primary Secondary Pakistan 39% 34% 34% Afghanistan n.a. 7% 4% Bangladesh 55% 24% 94% Bhutan 14% 4% 10% India 25% 45% 51% Maldives 36% 4% 5% Nepal 47% 25% 24% Sri Lanka 80% 3% n.a. South Asia 32% 38% 50% World 38% 19% 27% Source: UIS Database, UNESCO. Note: Based on the UNESCO Institute of Statistics (UIS) database, Pakistan has a primary enrollment share of 34% while the average in South Asia is 38%. Within South Asia, Pakistan ranks second after India (45%) and is 15 percentage points above the world average. In secondary enrollment, Bangladesh ranks first with 94% of the enrollment share, which is significantly above the global average of 27%. 20 Pakistan’s expenditure per child is low Pakistan faces considerable challenges compared to other countries in the South when it comes to gender gaps in Asian region (Table 1.2). Pakistan only education. It ranks 142 out of 146 countries spends US$338 per student at the primary on the Global Gender Gap Index 2023. level, which is less than Nepal (US$350) Looking at different aspects of this index, and Sri Lanka (US$901). This underscores Pakistan ranks 138th on educational the urgent need for Pakistan to increase attainment, 132nd on health and survival, its public expenditure per student to 95th on political empowerment, and accommodate its large school-age 143rd on economic participation and population. This report encourages these opportunity.4 While these broad disparities 01 OVERVIEW OF THE EDUCATION SYSTEM IN PAKISTAN increases to help improve the equity and in gender equality affect both genders, efficacy of the country’s education system. they particularly and significantly hinder In other words, to improve children’s girls’ ability to unlock their potential and educational outcomes, Pakistan needs to contribute to Pakistan’s economic and spend better and to spend more. social advancement. Table 1.2. Public expenditure per student in South Asia, by education level (US$) Primary Secondary Afghanistan 231 255 Bangladesh n.a. 381 Nepal 350 296 Pakistan 338 668 Sri Lanka 901 887 Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from the Global Monitoring Report 2021. Note: Pakistan spends US$338 per student at the primary level which is lower than Nepal (US$350) and Sri Lanka (US$901). At the secondary level, the spending is US$381 per student which is higher in comparison to Bangladesh, Nepal, and Afghanistan. Pakistan’s expenditure per child in primary education is low and hinders needed investments to improve quality of and access to education. 21 BOX 3 Private Schools The private sector plays a large role in Pakistan’s education system, especially through public-private partnerships. However, private schooling, i.e. schools Another key difference between private that do not receive any support from the and public schools is teacher salary. public sector, is prevalent in Pakistan, While children at private schools generally serving 42.4% of all students. The share of achieve slightly higher learning outcomes 01 OVERVIEW OF THE EDUCATION SYSTEM IN PAKISTAN private schooling among total enrollment than their counterparts in public schools, is higher in urban areas (40.1%), and among that outcome often comes at the expense the provinces, it is highest in Punjab, where of teachers. Teachers at private schools 62.9% of all students go to private schools. earn between one-eighth and one-half of The share of poor students attending what public school teachers are paid. This private schools is 19.3%. is particularly concerning since teacher salaries at private schools are often linked The expansion of private education in to the underpayment of predominantly Pakistan began in the 1990s, doubling young female teachers. These financial its share of students from 15% to 30% issues underscore a need for better between 1991 and 2001. This growth regulation. continued, with private school enrollment accounting for approximately 34% by 2008. Ultimately, the implications of a two- By the 2020s, Pakistan had one of the tier education system, where the poor largest shares of private school enrollment predominantly attend public schools, in primary education in South Asia. while the nonpoor attend private schools, are extensive and profound. This system One of the key differences in students risks promoting social segregation, limiting who attend private school versus public opportunities for interaction and learning school is obvious – most poor students among children from diverse backgrounds tend to attend public schools, and in a world that is increasingly polarized their representation in private school by political and social issues. In order to enrollment is low. Almost 81 of every 100 address these equity concerns effectively, poor students attend public schools, and there must be increased investment in poor students only represent 8% of all the public education sector to enhance students enrolled in private schools. This its quality and offer parents better quality situation can be symptomatic of parents options for the education of their children. opting out of public schools when they can afford to do so or when alternative options are available nearby. One of the primary reasons parents opt to send their children to private schools is driven by their perception of quality teaching. In fact, 88% of parents say the main reason they send their children to private schools is “good teaching,” compared to 38% of parents who send their children to public schools. 22 Figure 1.4. The education system in Pakistan, from preprimary to higher secondary school A e Gr de 15–16+ Higher Secondary School 11–12 SECONDARY EDUCATION 13–14+ High School 09–10 01 OVERVIEW OF THE EDUCATION SYSTEM IN PAKISTAN 10–12+ Middle School 06–09 ELEMENTARY 05–09+ Elementary or Primary School 01–05 EDUCATION 03–04+ Preprimary School UA–K Source: Pakistan Education Statistics 2020–2021. Note: The structure of Pakistan’s education system has five levels: preprimary, elementary/primary, middle, high, and higher secondary. The education system of Pakistan has five education system also incorporates a levels: preprimary (ages 3–4), elementary/ significant number of religious schools primary (grades 1–5), middle (grades called madrassas, which primarily provide 6–9), high level (grades 9–10), and higher/ religious education. Technical and tertiary level (grades 11 and beyond). vocational education is offered by the The levels of education can broadly be Technical Education and Vocational Training categorized into elementary education Authority (TEVTA) schools, providing various (preprimary, primary, middle school) and skills-based programs. These vocational secondary (high school and beyond) (Figure institutes are exclusive of elementary and 1.4). These education levels encompass secondary education. both public and private institutions. The 23 Pakistan’s education system is vast. basic right, under Article 25, “A Right to As of 2017, Pakistan, with a population Education,” and the State (understood as nearing 221.0 million, had 58.9 million the federal and provincial governments) school-age children (ages 5 to 16). 5 Among would provide free and compulsory these children, 38.2 million were enrolled education to all children between the in primary to secondary educational ages of 5 and 16. The first change radically institutions. Pakistan’s education system transformed how education was planned, accommodates approximately 55.4 million monitored, and funded. The second made students, extending from preprimary to education a fundamental right in Pakistan. tertiary levels, including technical and The decentralization process of education 01 OVERVIEW OF THE EDUCATION SYSTEM IN PAKISTAN vocational education (Table 1.3). The was intended to bring the government gender-based gross enrollment rates at closer to citizens and to better respond to primary, middle, and secondary levels are local needs. The changes also brought up 87:75, 60:51, and 64:51 (male to female), challenges in establishing policy coherence, respectively. The country employs roughly ensuring capacity to deliver services at the 1.8 million teachers across the education provincial level, setting education policies, levels, yielding an average student-to- and managing disparities in educational teacher ratio of 30:1. Pakistan hosts funding across the provinces. The changes nearly 300,000 educational institutions also opened a debate about the role nationwide. Despite the size of the system, of the federal government to support as of June 2024, the adult literacy rate and guarantee the right to education stands at 62.8%.6 to all citizens. The amendment left no provisions for provincial accountability The most substantial change to Pakistan’s to the federal government for their new education system occurred in 2010 responsibilities and resources.8 Since when the Constitution of Pakistan 2010, provinces have made progress in was amended. 7 The 18th Amendment improving the management of education to the Constitution resulted in two systems, but substantial challenges remain fundamental changes: (1) education in accountability and planning of resources became decentralized, and the provinces to ensure the provision of quality inputs were empowered to deliver educational needed to guarantee quality education for service; and (2) education became a all children in Pakistan.9 Table 1.3. The education system in Pakistan Technical Primary* Secondary Tertiary and vocational Total education Enrollment 45,058.6 4,548.7 5,310.5 455.5 55,373.3 Institutions 229.4 34.8 11.5 3.7 279.4 Teachers 906.7 598.9 295.2 18.2 1,819.0 Source: Pakistan Economic Survey 2022–2023. Note: *Primary includes preprimary, religious schools, and nonformal basic education (NFBE). Religious schools account for nearly 10% of school enrollment. Pakistan’s education system accommodates approximately 55.4 million students, extending from preprimary to tertiary levels, including technical and vocational education (TVET). Approximately 45.1 million of the total enrolled students are in primary education. 24 BOX 4 COVID-19 Impacts It is undeniable that COVID-19 has had a huge impact on schooling around the world and worsened existing inequalities and challenges with getting children in school and learning. Pakistan was one of the first countries For the children who did return to school, to institute school closures and learning losses were evident. Between unfortunately found minimal success 2021-2022, the Annual Status of Education 01 OVERVIEW OF THE EDUCATION SYSTEM IN PAKISTAN with distance learning. As a result of the Report (ASER) was able to once again COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting conduct a nationwide survey for both rural school closures, 75% of families with (152) and urban (22) districts in Pakistan. children ages 3 to 17 reported stopping Rural and urban differences remain, with education, and more than 80% of boys rural children experiencing lower levels of and girls reported not attending school for learning, though the amount of learning between 6 to 12 months.1 loss that both urban and rural children faced is similar. For rural children, in 2021- During school closures, the federal 2022, 55.0% of grade 5 children could read ministry and provincial education a grade 2 level story in Urdu/Sindhi/Pashto departments made great efforts to compared to 59.0% in 2019.4 Similarly, for implement diverse modes of digital urban children, in 2021-2022, 65.3% of learning through radio, TV, and online grade 5 children could read a grade 2 level platforms. However, the most marginalized story in Urdu/Sindhi/Pashto compared to households lacked adequate infrastructure 69.5% in 2019. 5 There was an even greater and/or digital technology. On average, 21% decline in math scores during this same of households with school-going children period, where 51% of grade 5 children in do not have any access to electricity; and rural districts could do two-digit division rates of households without electricity as compared to 57% in 2019.6 For urban were highest in provinces with large rural children, in 2021-2022, 61.5% of grade populations such as Sindh (53%), KP (30%), 5 children could do two-digit division and Balochistan (11%).2 compared to 65.9% in 2019.7 Girls, especially from rural households, While the long-term effects of the were more likely to drop out of school COVID-19 pandemic are still being after the pandemic. According to studied, current evidence suggests that household survey data, 7% of rural girls and rural children are much more households reported that girls did not impacted and stand to lose more by return to school after the pandemic, way of educational opportunities than compared to just 3% reporting the same other children. To prevent further learning for boys.3 losses, actions can be taken to boost enrollment and limit dropouts, utilize student assessments to reveal the true extent of the problem, and expand access to connectivity so that remote learning can take place, if necessary, in the future.8 1 World Bank (forthcoming). 6 Ibid. 2 Ibid. 7 Ibid. 3 Ibid. 8 Geven and Hasan (2020). 4 ASER (2021, 2022a, 2022b). 25 BOX 5 Floods Beginning in June 2022, heavy monsoon rains led to widespread flooding, which affected approximately one-third of the country, with Sindh province experiencing the worst of the damage. The floods not only caused physical encourage people to prioritize climate destruction but also had significant long- change and take proactive measures to term impacts on children’s educational address it. 01 OVERVIEW OF THE EDUCATION SYSTEM IN PAKISTAN access and outcomes. All families faced Women and those with higher education direct and indirect consequences such as levels are more concerned about the damage to homes, loss of income, and impacts of climate change, especially its increased health risks, though families effects on children.4 Though awareness with better educated parents were more is higher among the educated, distrust in equipped to deal with the climate shock. climate information prevails, particularly in The floods severely damaged the rural areas and among the less-educated education system. Over 6,000 schools population. According to a recent phone were fully damaged, and nearly 11,000 survey, less than half of respondents schools were partially damaged, impacting believe that climate change is caused by over 2.6 million enrolled children1, 2 . A human activity, and almost one third of survey carried out six months after the respondents do not trust any source of floods3 showed that economic activity, climate change information. health, and education indicators began While there is widespread support for to improve, but challenges persisted for introducing climate education in schools, households in completely flooded areas. less than half of parents discuss climate Even when many of the schools reopened, change with their children at home. 5 many children affected by the floods This gap between awareness and action were unlikely to return. Some schools had underscores the need for enhanced efforts been completely destroyed, while others to promote discussions and actions at required an increase in travel costs and the household level and highlights the travel distances. Economic hardships of potential role of schools in educating some families forced their children to work, families on climate change issues. leaving them unable to return to school. Despite experiencing the impacts of To address the current and future threats climate change, there is limited support posed by climate change in Pakistan, it for both personal and government is crucial to understand the interplay climate action in Pakistan, highlighting the between socioeconomic factors and imperative for enhanced communication people’s attitudes and actions towards and education on actionable steps. climate change. Using data to understand Equipping individuals with knowledge what drives people’s climate behavior can about climate change will incentivize them help policy makers target interventions to to effectively address its impacts in the bridge the gap between climate awareness short and long term. and action and develop strategies that 1 Government of Pakistan, Asian Development Bank, 3 Barón and Dahlin (2023). European Union, United Nations Development 4 Asad, Barón, and Dahlin (2023). Programme, and World Bank (2022). 5 Ibid. 2 Barón et al. (2022). 26 Coordination across provinces and federal government is important to increase the resilience of the education system and better tackle the impacts of natural disasters. 01 OVERVIEW OF THE EDUCATION SYSTEM IN PAKISTAN All provinces began developing education The coordination challenges are evident sector plans to guide education services even at the level of aggregating provincial delivery under the 18th Amendment and data for reporting on international enhance their capacity for education commitments, such as the United policy making on curriculum, textbooks, Nations Sustainable Development Goals and management of teachers. Sizeable (SDGs). Only recently, with the leadership parts of provincial budgets, between 10% of the Ministry of Federal Education and 20%, are allocated to the education and Professional Training (MOFEPT) the sector every year by the provincial planning country has started to develop a common and development departments. However, framework for standardizing data for this setup lacks (1) coordination among better policy making in the country and for provincial and federal governments to reporting on international commitments achieve national-level objectives, including with high-quality data. Without such a appropriate checks and balances as in framework, each province has developed other federal countries10; and (2) knowledge its own education and information sharing on implementation, data-driven management system (EMIS), which tracks budget allocation, and lessons learned indicators of its education systems but in policy creation and implementation. does not necessarily provide comparable These shortcomings contribute to low- data across provinces. quality country-level data and inequality in educational outcomes, limiting Pakistani authorities’ ability to measure national and international commitments and improve education policy. 27 One attempt at coordination at the as a coordination mechanism during highest level of education policy has the COVID-19 pandemic, and when it been the development of the National addressed curriculum development, Curriculum, which emerged out of the examinations, and educational standards. National Education Policy (NEP) and The IPEMC is increasingly becoming the the Single National Curriculum (SNC) in primary means through which provincial 2021. In 2021, the government developed and federal education authorities attempt the NEP with input from the public and to coordinate and align educational policy. various stakeholders in a consultative However, as a coordination mechanism, three-month process (December 2020 the IPEMC lacks formal enforcement power to ensure compliance with agreed-upon 01 OVERVIEW OF THE EDUCATION SYSTEM IN PAKISTAN to March 2021). In addition, the federal government emphasized its commitment decisions. to a unified system of education across the In 2019, the IPEMC approved the country with the intention of addressing National Education Equitable Education equity issues in the education system Program (NEEP), a vertically integrated with the SNC, which was rolled out in initiative in which the MOFEPT provides three phases over three years: phase I, the additional provincial grants based on development of the SNC and textbooks performance indicators. NEEP’s aim was for preprimary to grade 5 (March 2021); to enhance service delivery in the most phase II, the development of SNC and disadvantaged districts of each province. textbooks for grades 6–8 (March 2022); The World Bank funded the initiative and phase III, development of SNC and through a project called ASPIRE (Actions textbooks for grades 9–12 (March 2023). (A to Strengthen Performance for Inclusive consensus on the SNC core curriculum for and Responsive Education).11 The primary middle-school grades had been achieved objective of the project was to bolster in February 2022.) The SNC has since been federal-provincial coordination and transformed into the National Curriculum management. Specifically, this involved: (1) of Pakistan, which emphasizes a minimum strengthening data systems, (2) promoting curriculum of knowledge and things that knowledge sharing, (3) enhancing the use children in Pakistan must know and be able of data to target lagging districts with low to do. While respecting the power the 18th educational outcomes, and (4) supporting Amendment bestowed to the provinces, interventions to incentivize behavioral the government will not force the change among teachers, students, and implementation of the National Curriculum; parents.12 Additionally, the mechanism instead, the MOFEPT is committed to integrated performance-based indicators playing a supporting role to all provinces for provinces. It was designed to serve for capacity building in education and as a model for future discussions on interprovincial harmony. education financing, specifically in relation An ad-hoc coordination mechanism, the to the 8th National Finance Commission Inter-Provincial Education Ministerial (NFC) award,13 which determines financial Conference (IPEMC), has proven to be a formulas for distributing financial resources useful platform for coordination among to provincial and federal governments. provinces and the federal government Building on this design, in July 2023, the in Pakistan. The IPEMC is a forum where Ministry of Planning Development and education ministers from all provinces Special Initiatives (MOPD) launched a convene to discuss and make decisions performance-based initiative to incentivize on significant educational issues and provinces to reduce the number of OOSC policies at the national level. The in lagging districts. conference was particularly beneficial 28 BOX 6 Data This report utilizes data from a variety of sources to present a comprehensive picture of the state of education in Pakistan. Various sources were used to ensure accurate analysis and to enable as much disaggregation as possible. A description of the sources is below in Table B6.1. Table B6.1. Description of data sources used in this report 01 OVERVIEW OF THE EDUCATION SYSTEM IN PAKISTAN Data Description ASER 2020–2021 The Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) is a household-based survey conducted across rural districts in Pakistan assessing the learning outcomes on language and mathematics of children ages 5-16. BOOST 2010-2021 BOOST collects district-level expenditure data of Pakistan on multiple categories and levels. PSLM 2004-2014 Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) collected social and economic indicators at the province and district level. PSLM/HIES 2018-2019 PSLM and Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) collected social and economic indicators at the province and district level. The data contain information on household income and consumption by category. PSLM 2019-2020 PSLM collected social and economic indicators at the province and district level. AEPAM 2018-2019, 2020- Academy of Educational Planning & Management (AEPAM) provides data on enrollment, repetition, 2021, 2021-2022 teachers, school condition, school facilities, and nonteaching staff. NAT 2018–2019 National Achievement Test (NAT) 2019 for grade 4 and grade 8 test scores in English, science, general science, and mathematics. Pakistan Population Census The census includes information on electrification, population density and more. 2017 World Bank WDI World Development Indicators provides cross comparison, time series and country-level data on global development. The information is used to carry out expenditure efficiency analysis. WEF The World Economic Forum (WEF) conducts an annual assessment of 103 countries’ economic performance that measures how countries perform on 11 dimensions of economic progress in addition to GDP. GEM Report 2021 The Global Education Monitoring Report (GEM) is an editorially independent annual report hosted and published by UNESCO, which is mandated to monitor progress on education in the SDGs and on the implementation of national and international education strategies to help hold all relevant partners to account for their commitments. TIMSS 2019 The Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) is an assessment of the mathematics and science knowledge of learners in grade 4 (or 5) and grade 8 (or 9) in various countries around the world. UNESCO UIS The UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) provides free access to data for all UNESCO countries and regional groupings from 1970 to the most recent year available and encourages developers and researchers to build websites and applications that make rich use of UIS dissemination data. Pakistan Economic Survey The Pakistan Economic Survey 2022-2023 presents analysis of the performance of different 2022-2023 sectors of the economy. Pakistan Education Survey/ Pakistan Education Statistics is a publication by the Pakistan Institute of Education (PIE). Statistics 2022 SABER SDI SABER Service Delivery Indicators (SABER SDI) is an initiative by the World Bank Education Global Practice to uncover bottlenecks that inhibit student learning in low-income and middle-income countries. This school survey collects strategic information on school inputs and processes that produce learning outcomes. GEPD 2023 Global Education Policy Dashboard (GEPD) is a data-collection tool developed by the World Bank identifying priorities for investments and policy reforms. NAT 2019 National Achievement Test (NAT) 2019 is a nationwide tool that assesses student achievement in core subjects like English, Urdu, math, and science, and Sindhi in Sindh province, offering valuable data to inform educational progress. 29 Education is not social 01 OVERVIEW OF THE EDUCATION SYSTEM IN PAKISTAN assistance; it is an investment for long-term prosperity, opportunity, social cohesion, and inclusion. SECTION NOTES 1 UNESCO (2022). 11 World Bank (2020). 2 UNESCO (2022). 12 The Actions to Strengthen Performance for Inclusive 3 Andrabi, Khuwaja, and Das (2006); Nguyen and Raju and Responsive Education (ASPIRE) program helps (2014). Pakistan address school disruptions related to COVID-19 by accelerating virtual and distance learning 4 WEF (2023). opportunities for out-of-school children (OOSC), 5 PBS (2017a). particularly among disadvantaged communities. It 6 Government of Pakistan (2023). helps strengthen coordination between federal and provincial authorities to generate new investments 7 Constitution of Pakistan as modified up to 2018 in traditional and alternative education programs to (Government of Pakistan 1973). accelerate recovery. 8 I-SAPS (n.d.). 13 National Finance Commission (NFC): Article 160 (1) of 9 Kakar, Saleem, and Sarwar (2022). Pakistan’s constitution provides for the establishment 10 Shah (2006). of the NFC. 30 02 EDUCATION FINANCING & SPENDING Education in Pakistan is financed through a blend of private and public sources. The public sector accounts for approximately 45% of total education expenditure. The private sector encompasses a diverse range of sources, which include families, foundations, nongovernmental organizations, charities, and religious institutions.1 Funding for Education in Pakistan To fulfill constitutional obligations on income, wealth, capital value, sales related to public education provision, the and purchases of goods, export duties government funds public expenditure on cotton, custom duties, federal excise from government revenue, primarily duties, and any other tax imposed by the taxes. 2 It is the responsibility of the federal government. While the current NFC National Finance Commission (NFC), Award, the 7th, was set to expire in 2015, under the presidential directive, to it has instead been extended annually distribute tax revenue between the federal since consensus has not been reached and provincial governments through a on changes to the distribution formulas. mechanism known as the NFC Award. The Typically, the NFC Award is revised every NFC Award distributes a common pool of five years, which presents opportunities to funds derived from taxes, such as taxes improve the decentralization process. 31 KEY MESSAGE ADEQUACY Pakistan needs to spend socioeconomic consequences of this underfunding include reduced human more on education. capital and stunted long-term economic productivity and growth. Pakistan needs to In 2020, the country spent 2.1% of gross rethink its current approach to education domestic product (GDP) on education, financing, increase government revenue, notably below the South Asian regional and gradually increase its education average of 2.9% and the global average expenditure to at least 4.3% of its GDP— of 4.3%. Alarmingly, this allocation essential for ensuring access to a higher decreased to 1.5% in 2023. Such investment quality of education. This has become is inadequate to achieve Pakistan’s more important since the release of new constitutional pledge to provide free and data from the 7th Population and Housing compulsory education to children age 5–16. Census 2023. The data indicates that the Consequently, Pakistan has the second- population growth averaged 2.55% annually highest number of out-of-school children between 2012 and 2023, up from 2.40% (OOSC) worldwide, at 20.3 million. Eight annually between 1998 and 2017. This of every 10 children in Pakistan cannot acceleration in population growth will bring understand a basic short text by age 10, millions more children than expected into classifying them as “learning poor.” The the education system in the near future. The NFC Award is the main source of The NFC Award plays a significant role provincial expenditure. The common in funding provincial activities and pool of funds, after certain exclusions, is services. Provinces supplement this source divided between the four provinces and of government funding with their own the federal government at a ratio of 57.5% taxes on services, as well as funding from to the provinces and 42.5% to the federal development assistance and loans. 5 Once government. 3 This allocation is based on the NFC Award funds have been allocated, population (82.0%), poverty (10.3%), revenue it is up to each province to decide how collection (5.0%), and inverse population to distribute these funds among various density (2.7%). As a result of this formula, sectors, including education. Provinces the 57.5% allocated to the provinces is allocate between 13% and 20% of their divided as follows: Balochistan receives budgets toward education. A noteworthy 5.2%, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) receives aspect, particularly relevant to education, 8.4%, Punjab receives 29.8%, and Sindh is that the NFC Award did not include receives 14.8% (approximate values). In the checks and balances for accountability or fiscal year 2022, provincial expenditures incentivize certain activities or targets, apart financed by transfers from federal from impacting the distribution formula. governments (mainly through the NFC) There are no provisions or compensation represented 100% in Punjab, 80% in Sindh, funds, which are common in other federal 86% in KP, and 89% in Balochistan.4 countries, that incentivize provinces and districts to ensure a more geographically balanced development path.6 32 While the 18th Amendment to the Quality education demands supportive Constitution devolved service delivery public institutions for monitoring, to the province level, the devolution evaluating, and building capacity process remains incomplete, especially beyond just improving resources. These at the district level, in some provinces. institutions, varying by name across All the provinces have approved their local provinces, perform essential functions government acts with later amendments. to facilitate student learning. These These local government acts in Pakistan’s institutions have evolved from the 18th provinces outline different levels of Amendment, both at the provincial and education administration responsibilities. federal government levels. Although it is In KP 7 and Punjab,8 education has been beyond the scope of this study, it would 02 EDUCATION FINANCING AND SPENDING devolved to local governments, enabling be important to assess the efficiency and district-level autonomy in management, relevance of these numerous institutions. planning, taxation for support, and the Many of them are legacy institutions at the overseeing of educational development. federal government level but were never Punjab’s District Education Authorities absorbed by provincial governments when (DEA) oversees the entire education the decentralization of educational services sector. KP and Punjab have also devolved occurred. In some provinces, there are even educational planning to the local level, two distinct departments, like literacy and giving districts more fiscal autonomy and school education, that do not necessarily control over education and, in theory, work together. At the federal level, there enabling them to respond to the local are organizations such as the National needs of their population. In contrast, the Commission of Human Development decentralization process has stalled in and the Basic Education Community Balochistan and Sindh, especially at the Schools that also operate in the provinces district level. In Sindh, local governments with similar mandates to the ones of have limited roles, such as promoting the provincial education and literacy adult education and monitoring primary departments. Assessing the efficiency and education,9 while Balochistan’s local relevancy of these institutions will allow for government focuses on providing and duplication to be eliminated, enhancing maintaining primary schools.10 It has efficiency and freeing additional resources been 12 years since the amendment was for service delivery. enacted, and these two provinces have yet to announce a Provincial Financial Commission. 33 Figure 2.1. Characteristics of education financing in Pakistan (a) Public expenditure in education compared (b) Trends in total education expenditures nominal to other countries, as percentage of GDP, 2020 (in million PKR) and as a percentage of GDP, 2015– 2020 2.12% 4.5% 2.02% 1.98% 988,032 4.2% 1.97% 1.90% 2.9% 2.9% 663,356 1.77% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 02 EDUCATION FINANCING AND SPENDING India Nepal Afghanistan SAR Pakistan Bangladesh Sri Lanka 2015–2016 2016–2017 2017–2018 2018–2019 2019–2020 2020–2021 Total expenditure (million PKR) As a percent of GDP (c) Share of total public education expenditure, (d) Current versus development expenditure in by province, 2021 education (in million PKR) 1,000,000 Current Sindh expenditure 869,755 20% Development 807,629 Federal 800,000 774,932 expenditure 719,346 13% KPK 600,000 562,398 598,365 22% Balochistan 6% 400,000 200,000 Punjab 39% 15.3% 14.5% 13.4% 10.9% 10.5% 11.9% 0 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 Source: Authors’ estimates, using data from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators database and Pakistan Economic Survey 2021–2022. Note: Pakistan’s share of education expenditure as GDP tends to slightly differ depending on the source of information: World Development Indicators (WDI) / UNESCO, BOOST, or Pakistan Economic Survey; decreasing trends in expenditure are, however, consistent in all three sources of information. In absolute nominal terms, total expenditure on education has risen from PKR 663,356 million in FY 2015–2016 to PKR 988,032 million in FY 2020–2021. In 2021, Punjab had the highest share of total public expenditure in education at 39.0% followed by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Sindh, Federal and Balochistan. Development expenditure as a portion of total expenditure in education has seen a decline from FY 2015–2016 at 15.3% to 11.9% in 2020–2021. 34 Education expenditure in Pakistan Compared to international benchmarks consistently decreased since 2018, from and regional counterparts, the percentage 2.12% to 1.77% (Figure 2.1b). These data of GDP Pakistan allocates to education do not fully capture the impacts of the is low. As of 2020, Pakistan’s educational recent pandemic and floods on education expenditure was 2.1% of its GDP (Figure spending. Therefore, the proportion of GDP 2.1a). This is less than the allocation of allocated to education could shrink further. spending by India (4.5% of GDP), Nepal In addition, with high levels of inflation, (4.2%), and the region’s average (2.9%). nominal increases might not compensate Furthermore, Pakistan’s education for the reduction in purchasing power, expenditure is considerably less than thereby potentially leading to a further the minimum threshold set at the World contraction in real education expenditure. Education Forum (WEF) in Incheon in 2015, To understand the potential impact of which suggested that education sector 02 EDUCATION FINANCING AND SPENDING education expenditures across Pakistan, spending should be between 4.0% and it is useful to look at the distribution of 6.0% of GDP.11 In 2020, Pakistan’s education expenditure across provinces and the expenditure was less than half of the lower federal government (Figure 2.1c). Punjab limit of this benchmark. Among regional accounts for 39.0% of all education peers, only India and Nepal surpassed the spending in the country, followed by minimum spending threshold of 4% of GDP. Sindh (19.7%) and KP (21.9%). Despite The downward trend in Pakistan’s having a larger population than KP, Sindh expenditure on education is a cause for spends less on education. Balochistan concern. Despite nominal increases in and the federal government account yearly allocations that have led to a nearly for 6.7% and 12.7% of total education 50% surge in education expenditure expenditure, respectively. However, the between 2015 and 2020, the proportion allocation of these expenditures differs of the GDP allocated to education has within each province. Figure 2.2. Public education expenditure as percentage of total public expenditure (a) Country level, 2010–2020 (b) By province, 2022–2023 12.5% 25 10.9% 10.3% 8.8% 9.1% 20 19.1% 8.9% 8.8% 15 17.0% 8.3% 15.7% 7.6% 7.1% 13.7% 10 5 0 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 Sindh Balochistan Khyber Punjab Pakhtunkhwa Sources: Expenditure data BOOST Database based on data from Pakistan Ministry of Finance; and GDP data from the World Bank. Note: Public education expenditure as a percentage of total public expenditure in 2019–2020 was 8.8%, close to the total expenditure in 2010–2011 at 7.6%. The highest public expenditure was in 2018–2019 at 12.5%. In 2022–2023, the public expenditure on education by province was Sindh at 19.1%, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) at 17.0%, Punjab at 15.7%, and Balochistan at 13.0% of the total public expenditure. 35 Figure 2.3. Public expenditure by function, 2019-20 General Public Service 55.7% Defence Affairs & Services 12.8% Education Affairs and Services 8.8% Economic Affairs 8.8% Public Order and Safety Affairs 5.6% Social Protection 3.7% Health 3.3% Housing and Community Amenities 0.7% Recreational, Culture and Religion 0.4% 02 EDUCATION FINANCING AND SPENDING Environment Protection 0.1% Source: BOOST Database based on data from Pakistan Ministry of Finance. Note: The general public service sector receives the highest share of public expenditure at 55.7%, followed by the defense affairs and services sector at 12.8% and education at 8.8% in 2019–2020. In 2020, 90% of Pakistan’s expenditure was is highly likely that salaries are crowding on recurrent expenditures, with teachers’ out expenditures that guarantee teachers salaries representing between 70% and and students the infrastructure and the 75% of the recurrent budget. This leaves pedagogical material needed for quality limited funds for the education system’s education. expansion and improvement of quality Pakistan allocates approximately 9.0% (Figure 2.1d). In Pakistan, expenditures of its total public expenditure, including are categorized into two types: recurrent federal and provincial budgets, to and development (capital). Recurrent education. This allocation falls short of the expenditures include salaries, textbooks, commitment Pakistan, along with other and small repairs (maintenance), while nations, made at the WEF in Incheon in development expenditures refer to 2015. This forum advocated that countries funding allocated for specific projects, dedicate at least 15.0% to 20.0% of public such as the construction or improvement expenditure to education. The highest of schools. Balancing between recurrent proportion of spending Pakistan has and development spending is crucial.12 allocated to education in the past decade For example, classrooms need teachers, was 12.5% in 2018–2019, just before the who in turn need textbooks to facilitate pandemic. However, the allocation has education. If the expenses allocated to also dipped as low as 7.1% in 2015–2016. teachers eclipse those for textbooks, it A review of the trends since 2010 reveals could undermine the overall efficacy of a cyclical pattern in public expenditure education and hamper student learning.13 on education (Figure 2.2). This cyclical With only 10% of public expenditures investment trend hinders the sector’s dedicated to new schools, teacher training, ability to plan for the long term and and other quality-enhancing activities, it impedes progress. 36 Figure 2.4. Salary, nonsalary, and capital expenditures evolution, from 2010–2020 and by province (a) Spending by salary, nonsalary, and capital (b) Distribution of federal and provincial expenditure, by activity 6% 8% 3% 6% 5% 6% 5% 4% 3% 6% 1% 12% 10% 1% 6% 4% 76% 23% 29% 25% 24% 27% 30% 39% 35% 28% 19% 23% 16% 16% 26% 14% 65% 68% 73% 67% 65% 55% 59% 68% 78% 72% 24% 74% 74% 77% 78% 69% 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- ICT Balochistan KP Punjab Sindh Pakistan 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Salary Nonsalary (recurrent) Capital Salary Nonsalary (recurrent) Capital 02 EDUCATION FINANCING AND SPENDING Source: BOOST Database based on data from Pakistan Ministry of Finance. Note: Salary expenditure varies from 55% to 78% over time from FY 2010–2011 to 2019–2020 in Pakistan. Capital expenditures have remained below 10% consistently over time while nonsalary expenditures varied from 19% to 39% over time. By province, all except for Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) spends approximately 75% of expenditures on salary. Punjab and ICT both have the lowest spending on capital expenditures at 1%. As of 2021, provincial expenditure levels defense affairs and services, which receives in Pakistan have fallen between 13% and 13% of the budget. Education spending 20%, with Balochistan as the exception. ranks third among budget priorities, Balochistan has struggled to reach the 15% receiving just 9% of the total public public expenditure spending benchmark expenditure (Figure 2.3). set at the WEF in 2015; instead its spending Over the past five years, salary level is at 14%. In contrast, KP and Punjab expenditures have increased by an average allocate approximately 20% and 17%, of 3% points per year and account for 70% respectively. It is essential to interpret of Pakistan’s education expenditures. In these figures within their proper context. 2019–2020, 72% of sector spending went Comparing provincial expenditure shares to salary payments, 23% to nonsalary with international benchmarks misses the recurrent expenditures, and only 6% to purpose of these benchmarks, which is to capital investment (Figure 2.4). Compared incentivize increased public spending in to 2016–2017, the share of salary spending education. The benchmarks are tailored to increased by 13% points, mainly coming countrywide public expenditure, not the from nonsalary recurrent expenditures. expenditures at the subnational level. Of these salary payments, more than 98% Given that Pakistan spends less on are employee-related expenses, and less education than many other countries in than 2% correspond to pension benefits. the South Asian region, where does most In 2019–2020, 55% of employee-related of Pakistan’s public money go? The answer expenditures were salaries, and 45% were lies primarily in the general public service allowances (up from 37% in 2016–2017). sector, which consumes 56% of the total The capital expenditure, at only 6%, mostly budget. The most substantial portion of this includes civil works, such as construction. allocation is consumed by domestic debt Nonsalary recurrent expenditures, at 23%, management and interest payments. The consist largely of grants, subsidies, write- second major sector of expenditure is for offs, transfers, and operating costs. 37 All provinces in Pakistan dedicate allocation for grants to districts and schools approximately 67% of their spending to as part of the ongoing decentralization salaries, while the federal government process within the province. primarily focuses on nonsalary recurrent Pakistan makes almost equal investments expenditures (Figure 2.4). Balochistan and in primary and secondary education, KP commit slightly more funds than the while less is spent on tertiary education. other regions to capital investments, chiefly Considering the low enrollment and infrastructure. Meanwhile, Balochistan completion rates in secondary education, and KP both spent 74%, Punjab spent it is reasonable to question the efficiency 77%, and Sindh spent 78% on the capital of the budget allocation, which has investments. Both the federal government generally remained constant, with only and Punjab allocated only 1% of their minor fluctuations, over the past decade. budgets to infrastructure; the former due In the fiscal year 2019–2020, Pakistan to its limited mandate for direct service allocated 36% of its education budget to delivery, and the latter due to its focus primary education, an equal proportion to 02 EDUCATION FINANCING AND SPENDING on system expansion via public-private secondary education, and 23% to tertiary partnerships (PPPs) rather than the education (Figure 2.5a). construction of new school infrastructure. Punjab’s expenditure figures also indicate a higher proportion of nonsalary recurrent expenditures, which includes an increased Figure 2.5. Public expenditure, by education level (a) Expenditure, by level, 2019-2020 (b) Type of expenditure, by education level, 2019–2020 2% 3% 13% 1% 16% Tertiary 23% Secondary 36% 60% Others 5% Preprimary & Primary 97% 81% 27% 36% Preprimary & Primary Secondary Education Tertiary Education Education Salary Nonsalary (recurrent) Capital Source: BOOST Database based on data from Pakistan Ministry of Finance. Note: In the fiscal year 2019–2020, Pakistan allocated 36% of its education budget to primary education, an equal proportion to secondary education, and only 23% to tertiary education. During 2019–2020, almost all expenditures (97%) were channeled to salaries in primary education. In secondary education, salary payments accounted for 81% of spending, while nonsalary recurrent expenditures took up 16%, and capital investment constituted the remaining 3%. 38 Figure 2.6. Budget execution from different perspectives (a) Evolution (b) Execution is lower in nonsalary (recurrent) and development budget 100% = Perfect execution 100% = Perfect Execution 102% 99% 93% 94% 94% 93% 92% 91% 92% 90% 90% 86% 88% 84% 79% 77% 73% 73% 60% 02 EDUCATION FINANCING AND SPENDING 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2016-2017 2017-2018 2019-2020 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Salary Nonsalary (recurrent) Capital Education sector execution Source: BOOST Database based on data from Pakistan Ministry of Finance; based on data from the World Bank’s WDI database; Pakistan Economic Survey 2021–2022. Note: Formula for budget execution = (Actual Expenditure ÷ Final Budget) × 100%. Pakistan maintains budget execution rates of around 90% from FY 2010–2011 to FY 2019–2020. Execution rate for the recurrent salary budget is nearly 100%. The nonsalary (recurrent) and development budgets pose challenges, with execution rates varying between 75% to 85% and 60% to 70%. As the level of education increases, support for teachers and students to the proportion of expenditure spent acquire the foundational skills they need to on salaries decreases. At all levels benefit from the rest of their experience in of education, most expenditures are the education system. It could also ensure dedicated to salaries, with important that multigrade education is formalized differences. During 2019-2020, almost all and implemented adequately. Investing expenditures (97%), as with previous years, more in primary education will enhance were channeled to salaries in primary the efficiency of the system as it would education. In secondary education, salary enhance the efficacy of the large recurrent payments accounted for 81% of spending, expenditures in teacher salaries. while nonsalary recurrent expenditures Decentralization of sector service delivery took up 16%, and capital investment is evident, with most of the expenditures constituted the remaining 3% (Figure taking place at the regional level, 2.5b). In tertiary education, the bulk of especially at the primary and secondary expenditure, 60%, was nonsalary recurrent, levels. In 2019–2020, nearly all of primary largely comprised of grants, subsidies, and secondary education spending (99% and write-offs of loans/advances/others, and 97%, respectively) took place at the with salary payments at 27% and capital provincial level. For tertiary education, expenditures comprising 13%. To enhance 50% of spending occurred at the provincial the quality of education, the system must level and 50% at the federal level. Between increase development spending in primary 2010 and 2019, the proportion of education education. More development expenditure expenditures made by the federal at this level will allow for better and more 39 government decreased from 21% to 13% efficiency of expenditure, especially if that (with a spike in 2015 that reached 26%). This unexecuted budget is used to make the shows the devolution of service delivery recurrent expenditures, such as salaries of from federal to provincial governments teachers, more impactful. that has been happening for more than a Procurement, planning, and parking of decade. funds all contribute to underutilizing Pakistan maintains budget execution the development budget, according to rates of around 90%, a trend that has extensive consultations with officials held steady since the devolution process from provincial and federal education, in 2010 (Figure 2.6). However, this figure finance, and planning and development hides information critical for policy making, departments. Cumbersome procurement especially considering the execution rate processes often hinder the full deployment for the recurrent salary budget, which of the budget. Complex procedures, is nearly 100%. The disbursement of stringent regulations, and bureaucratic red salaries to teachers and administrators tape can slow the acquisition of essential 02 EDUCATION FINANCING AND SPENDING is a straightforward and predictable task goods and services, impeding the effective that does not require following intricate implementation of development plans. procurement procedures. However, the Discrepancies between planning and nonsalary recurrent and development execution can also arise due to inadequate budgets pose challenges, with execution forecasting or unrealistic budgeting, rates over three years averaging 84% leading to the underutilization of funds. and 69%, respectively (Figure 2.6). It is A lack of technical skills and knowledge also unsurprising, given the expenditure in the agencies tasked with executing the structure, which is predominantly development budget presents another composed of transfers and salaries, that the challenge. Capacity building within these federal government exhibits near-perfect agencies is essential to ensure the efficient execution rates. In terms of education levels, execution of the budget and full utilization primary education almost consistently of allocated funds. Furthermore, “parked” demonstrates the highest rates of execution, allocations, or funds listed in the budget an expected outcome considering that with no intention of them being fully spent, salaries constitute most of their budget. can inflate the size of the development Execution in secondary education is only budget artificially while actual spending marginally lower than primary in certain remains low. years, which is also understandable given The overarching challenge lies in the the substantial proportion of salaries and inconsistent and often delayed release other nonsalary recurrent costs comprise of funds, which causes difficulties in 97% of the budget. planning and implementing projects as Overall, not only is the development per approved budgets. This delay can budget relatively small, but it is also create substantial disparities between not fully executed. This implies that the budgeted and actual expenditures, as the resources necessary for system expansion time for implementation during the fiscal and quality improvement are limited. It year shrinks due to the delays. To fully seems that even the minimal opportunity utilize the development budget and to for change is not being fully realized. ensure the expansion and enhancement Making sure that these unexecuted of Pakistan’s education system, addressing resources are fully carried out could create these underlying challenges is crucial. an opportunity for Pakistan to increase the 40 BOX 7 Pensions In Pakistan, teacher salaries are paid by each provincial education department while teacher pensions are paid out from a provincewide pension pool, which disburses pensions to all civil servants. For example, retired public school teachers For retired teachers to receive their in Punjab and retired finance department pensions, they must submit a request to employees would receive their pensions the provincial Accountant General (AG) from the same provincial pot of funds offices in all four provinces and District which are managed separately from Accounts Offices (DAOs). Once this request 02 EDUCATION FINANCING AND SPENDING salaries. In annual provincial budgets, is made, they must provide their service there is a separate heading for pensions, book (a file that documents their tenure) which are allocated separately, like other and other documents that prove their administrative departments.1 identity and years of service. 1 See, for example, Annual Budget Statements for each provincial government. Increasing expenditure in education will enabling more substantial investments in require effort from both provincial and education​ . Given that provinces are heavily federal governments. The fragmentation reliant on a divisible pool of funds,15 the and lack of cohesion in tax policies NFC Award, which is the main source of between federal and provincial levels provincial expenditure, would provide further complicate revenue collection. an opportunity to discuss and agree on The World Bank notes that Pakistan’s fiscal a system that incentivizes performance deficits are large, persistent, and growing, in terms of increased learning outcomes which exacerbates macroeconomic and access to education. However, the 7th volatility and limits the government’s ability NFC Award, which expired in 2015, remains to invest in critical sectors like education.14 in place with an annual renewal, since a Effective fiscal management, including consensus has not yet been established for reducing the fiscal deficit, is crucial for the 8th NFC Award. 41 How much would it cost to send children to better quality schools? Funding for education in Pakistan is provincial level and aggregated to generate inadequate. It not only fails to cover all a national expenditure profile and public children, but a large portion of it comes sector capacity requirements. from parents. As part of this report, a The tool’s parameters consider differences simulation model was developed to in urban and rural expenditures, gender- understand the financial implications of specific interventions, and improvements funding all children to go to school. in the efficiency of public expenditure. The simulation tool provides cost Given Pakistan’s acute learning poverty estimates for addressing barriers crisis, improving learning outcomes to enrollment and reenrollment, requires interventions at the teacher, accommodating a growing population of assessment, school, and community levels. 02 EDUCATION FINANCING AND SPENDING school-age children, and improving the The sensitivity parameters use national quality of education. The tool forecasts blended costs to provide more incremental costs from 2024 to 2030 that conservative estimates for the needs will be required to overcome existing of lagging and vulnerable groups, such challenges, particularly pertaining to getting as the rural population and girls. These OOSC to enroll and attend school. The tool factors help map the additional costing assumes a constant GDP in 2023 PKR to requirements to serve these groups. capture the current economic conditions Additionally, one parameter helps gauge that limit growth. the savings that can come from increased The tool considers population growth efficiency in utilizing expenditure. and the age of school-going children Importantly, the simulation assumes that and considers different responses to the public sector can generate efficiency in the challenge of OOSC. Responses to spending of 20% (the system can achieve children out of school are based on the 20% more outcomes with the same taxonomy put forward by the World Bank’s allocation of resources). Human Capital Review, which splits OOSC By 2030, the number of school-eligible into different groups, requiring different children ages 5 to 16 in Pakistan is interventions based on their experience estimated to grow from 63.0 million to with the education system and their 76.5 million, reflecting a consistent annual current age. This setup captures the unique growth rate of 2% of new 5-year-olds each challenges faced by each group of OOSC, year. As the population of eligible students allowing for differential costing for each continues to expand and the OOSC crisis group and making the simulations more persists, the need for Pakistan to address realistic. The results are produced at the its public education service delivery becomes even more pressing with each passing year. 42 The simulation estimates that Pakistan The public school system is expected to can reduce its OOSC population to 1% enroll approximately 64% of all school- by 2030 with substantial technical and eligible students. Therefore, it is essential financial effort (Figure 2.7). This can be to focus on enhancing the capacity and done by setting annual intervention targets quality of education provided by the public geared toward reducing the number sector to effectively meet the needs of the of children who have never enrolled or expanding student population. dropped out of school. This is an extremely To realize this expectation, incremental ambitious but useful exercise. It provides public expenditure on education is benchmarking into what it would take to required. It needs to increase by 2.3 solve the enrollment problem percentage points by 2030, and reach at least 4.3% of GDP if current allocations are maintained (approximately 2.0% of GDP). In absolute terms, the required public expenditure needs to increase from PKR 1.3 02 EDUCATION FINANCING AND SPENDING trillion to PKR 1.9 trillion from 2024 to 2030. Figure 2.7. Simulation results (a) Children out of school (%) (b) Children enrolled (c) Additional expenditure as in public schools (%) percentage of GDP (blended scenario) 31% 64% 2.3% 2.3% 62% 60% 2.1% 57% 53% 1.9% 1.9% 48% 1.7% 1.6% 17% 41% 10% 7% % of GDP 4% 3% 2% 1% 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Source: Authors’ calculations based on simulation tool. Note: Over time, the percentages of out-of-school children (OOSC) are shown to decline continuously and is expected to reach a low of 1% in 2030 from a high of 31% in 2023. Enrollment is expected to rise and reach a high of 64% for all school- 64% going children in 2030. Increasing public expenditure on education is required to reduce the number of OOSC. More details on the simulation 60% 62% tool are available upon request. 57% 53% 48% 41% Public school enrolled children as a % of 5–16-yr- olds 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 43 Figure 2.8. Shifting of resources from remedial to The current simulation shows a shift in the investments in quality distribution of public expenditure from OOSC enrollment and remedial support toward investments in improving the Learning Quality quality of education (Figure 2.8). With the Increasing Public Sector Capacity budget allocation reduction in the number of children out Remedial Support of school, there is an increasing emphasis OOSC Enrollment on ensuring that the output of public education consistently delivers high- quality learning outcomes. Subsequently, 26% 30% 33% 36% 37% 36% 38% the pressure on public expenditure pivots toward sustaining the continuous improvement of education quality in the years to come while having most children in the system. 02 EDUCATION FINANCING AND SPENDING 2% The recent preliminary results of the 64% 3% aggregate number of the 2023 population 3% 59% census indicate that financing education 3% 3% 3% 3% 55% 56% 55% 52% 53% for all in Pakistan will become more complex. Between 2017 and 2023, the population of Pakistan increased annually at rate of 2.55%, higher than the rate between 1998 and 2017, which was 2.40%.16 Although numbers by age groups are not yet available, it is safe to assume that Pakistan’s effort to guarantee the right to education for all will be higher than estimated, given the millions of additional children expected to join the system due to increased fertility. Unless Pakistan increases 9% 9% efficiency, expenditure, and seeks out-of- 8% 8% 7% 5% 6% the-box solutions to expand the system, 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 the number of OOSC will continue to grow. Source: Authors’ calculations based on the simulation tool. Note: Based on the simulation, a change in the allocation of public funds is observed, focusing less on enrolling out-of-school children and providing remedial support, and shifting toward investments in enhancing the overall quality of education. More details on the simulation tool are available upon request. 44 Greater frequency of extreme weather events, such as the 2022 floods, highlights the importance of increasing the resilience of school infrastructure and the education system to minimize the impact of school closures. 02 EDUCATION FINANCING AND SPENDING BOX 8 Resiliency and climate change in education Climate change is causing major disruptions to education. Over the last 20 years, climate disasters To do this, policy makers could consider: such as floods, cyclones, drought and (1) education management for resilience crop failures have forced schools to close (e.g., developing disaster risk planning); roughly 75% of the time during these (2) school infrastructure for resilience extreme events.1 Strong evidence from (e.g., reinforcing the physical structure of COVID-19 shows that, on average, a day of schools to minimize damage and/or keep school closures equals a day of learning students cool/warm); (3) ensuring learning lost.2 Despite these statistics, most climate continuity (e.g., keeping schools open or policy does not include educational engaging in reenrollment campaigns); and considerations. In Pakistan, greater (4) empowering teachers and students incidence of extreme weather such as the as change agents (e.g., training teachers floods of 2022, which disrupted access to on climate risks and climate knowledge). 3 education and other basic services, shows These discussions are also important to the importance of building resilience within have within households, given that people the education system to withstand future with the least education are most likely climate shocks. to distrust sources of climate-related information, even though parents have a high demand of climate change education for their children.4 1 Venegas, Schwarz and Sabarwal (2024). 3 Ibid. 2 Ibid. 4 Asad, Dahlin, and Barón (2023). 45 RECOMMENDATIONS ADEQUACY Pakistan needs to spend Allocation more on education. Should the education budget increase, how should these funds be allocated? Spending Priority could be given to expanding access to quality education with well- Pakistan cannot deliver on its constitutional prepared teachers by continuing to 02 EDUCATION FINANCING AND SPENDING commitment to provide free and build the public sector. Additionally, compulsory education to children ages 5 other viable avenues include enhancing to 16 without additional resources, even if public-private partnerships (PPPs) with the most efficient allocation of resources robust regulation, making optimal use were to be achieved. To ensure that all of current infrastructure—for instance, children attend school and are learning, by implementing double shifts—and Pakistan must invest an amount equivalent promoting coordinated, targeted expansion to between 4.3% and 5.4% of its GDP in in tandem with Benazir Income Support education. While this is a formidable figure, Program (BISP) and education foundations annually agreed-upon increases in overall for data-driven growth (to maximize the budgets (as a percentage of GDP) could impact of resources, including conditional set Pakistan on the right track to fulfill its cash transfers). It is also essential to obligations to both current and future expand early childhood education (ECE) in generations. To augment expenditure a progressive and strategic way to ensure on education, Pakistan needs to bolster children are ready to begin school on time. government revenues through enhanced This means defining sustainable modalities, fiscal efforts and internal negotiations improving regulation, implementing regarding the revenue distribution of the pedagogical and language approaches, 8th NFC Award. such as socioemotional learning, enhancing ECE structures for implementation, and establishing formal programs for teacher training. Such expansion will require investment in ECE access and quality, including recruitment of new teachers and effective teacher training. Finally, improving technological and managerial systems will allow for more efficient and effective use of new resources. Implementing these strategies will ensure that any increase in the education budget is utilized to its fullest potential. 46 Increasing education expenditure to 4.3% to 5.4% of GDP is crucial for Pakistan to meet the educational needs of children, and pave the 02 EDUCATION FINANCING AND SPENDING path to higher productivity and economic growth. SECTION NOTES 1 Bano (2008). 13 Development expenses by the government are 2 PCE (2017). undertaken through dedicated schemes reflected in the Annual Development Plan (ADP) on the 3 Government of Pakistan (2010). provincial level and Public Sector Development 4 World Bank (2023c). Program (PSDP) at the Federal Level. These expenses 5 Ahmed and Kamal (2014). also include Foreign Project Assistance in the form of grants and loans. ADP and PSDP are a combined 6 Boadway and Shah (2009). set of schemes for all departments including 7 Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (2013). education. Hence, development expenses covered 8 Ibid. under these schemes for education may include upgradation or reconstruction of existing facilities 9 Government of Sindh (2013). such as schools or classrooms; construction of new 10 Government of Balochistan (2010). school buildings; provision of missing facilities such as 11 UIS (2015). water, washrooms, school walls etc.; teacher training; collaborative foreign funded projects; provision, 12 Malik and Naveed (2012). rehabilitation, and reconstruction of field services among others. 14 Husain, Qureshi, and Hussain (2019). 15 World Bank (2023b). 16 Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (2023). 47 03 EFFICIENCY IN THE EDUCATION SECTOR IN PAKISTAN Increasing the efficiency of public expenditure in education is needed to provide more children with the opportunity to benefit from education with the same resources and show citizens the country’s commitment to better-managed and efficient institutions. Internal efficiency One method to assess the efficiency of Pakistan. It also indirectly accounts for education systems and their expenditures repetition, as students who repeat grades is by examining both gross enrollment are likely to be older than the standard rates (GER) and net enrollment rates age range for their grade. In contrast, the (NER). The GER is calculated as the total NER captures what the enrollment should number of students, irrespective of their ideally be. It measures the percentage of age, enrolled in a specific level (such as students who are of the official age for their primary education) divided by the total education level (or grade, if calculated for a number of children who are officially within specific grade) divided by the total number the age range for that level. This measure of children who are officially within the age includes underage and overage children, range for that level (the same denominator the latter being particularly relevant for as for the GER). 48 KEY MESSAGE EFFICIENCY Pakistan needs to spend of the support teachers need, affecting students’ learning opportunities in the better on education. public system. Such resource allocation and results decrease parents’ desire to Pakistan’s education spending fails to send their children to public school. Given yield results regarding quality and access the current economic conditions in the compared to countries that spend similar country, Pakistan can increase expenditure budgets on education. Human and financial efficiency by focusing on improving resources are not directed where they the impact of major recurrent budget are most needed to improve quality and items, particularly teacher effectiveness; access to education. Approximately 70% eliminating duplicative departmental of the budget is allocated to salaries and mandates; improving management; only about 10% to development—which ensuring full execution of development is usually not fully executed. System budgets; and ultimately focusing on and management challenges hinder delivery strengthening learning. In a system where students are enrolled The discrepancy between GER and NER in school at the correct age for their level reveals considerable inefficiencies within or grade, the NER would be 100% (and the education system. At all three levels so would be the GER). However, for most (primary, middle, and high school), the GER systems, it signifies what percentage of is at least 30 percentage points higher than children are in school at the appropriate the NER. This means that in an average age (excluding children who are underage public primary school, 3 out of every 8 or overage). Therefore, NER is a superior students are overage (given it is highly measure of efficiency (being in school and improbable that underage children would at the right age), while GER is a secondary be present), 3 out of 5 students are overage measure (being in school, regardless of in middle school, and 5 out of 6 are overage age). If the GER is significantly higher than in high school (Figure 3.1). This makes clear the NER, it most likely indicates a high internal inefficiency challenges, especially prevalence of grade repetition or delayed considering that overaged students are school start, both reducing the efficiency of more likely to drop out of school.2 It is also expenditures.1 notable that NERs are low, with 50% in primary school, 21% in middle school, and 13% in high school, indicating that most students who make it to those grades are not advancing through the system as expected. 49 Figure 3.1. NER and GER per education level The aggregate GER and NER figures conceal provincial and gender variation, 90% highlighting substantial efficiency NER GER challenges. In primary education, for 80% 82% instance, despite Punjab having the 70% highest GER, approximately 6 out of every 9 students are overage, compared to 5 60% out of every 8 in KP. Primary school NERs range between 45% and 56% in Sindh 50% 56% 58% and Punjab, respectively (Figure 3.2a). In 51% addition, the discrepancy between GER 40% and NER for middle school girls reveals 30% that, in Punjab, nearly 50% of the girls are overage. Consequently, while many girls are 20% enrolled and attending school, many are 21% too old for their grade. Overall, in Pakistan, 10% 13% only 2 out of every 5 middle school girls 0% are of the correct age for it (Figure 3.2b). Primary Middle High (5-9 y.o.) (10-12 y.o.) (13-14 y.o.) NER rates for middle school girls are as low as 11% in Balochistan and 26% in Punjab. 03 EFFICIENCY IN THE EDUCATION SECTOR IN PAKISTAN Source: Pakistan Economic Survey 2022–2023. NERs are consistently lower for primary and Note: Based on the Pakistan Economic Survey, the net middle school girls than for boys (except for enrollment ratio (NER) for primary, middle and high school is 51%, 21%, and 13%, respectively. Gross enrollment ratio (GER) Punjab, not shown). Therefore, it is not only has been recorded at 82%, 56% and 58% for primary, middle, that many girls are not in school, but those and high school, respectively. A significantly higher GER in comparison to NER is indicative of repetition or delayed school who are enrolled tend to be overage. There start. are also more overage girls than boys. This indicates that girls tend to start school when they are older than boys. Figure 3.2. NER and GER, by province and gender (a) Primary level, by province (b) Middle school for girls, by province 100% 100% NER GER NER GER 90% 90% 34% 80% 80% 31% 34% 70% 70% 24% 60% 22% 60% 61% 50% 56% 50% 51% 49% 51% 40% 45% 46% 40% 44% 38% 30% 30% 29% 20% 20% 26% 21% 10% 10% 16% 15% 11% 0% 0% Pakistan Punjab Sindh KP Balochistan Pakistan Punjab Sindh KP Balochistan Source: Pakistan Economic Survey 2022. Note: At the primary level, net enrollment ratio (NER) by province varies between 45% and 49% for Sindh, KP, and Balochistan. Punjab has a higher NER versus other provinces and Pakistan as a whole. At the middle school level, Balochistan has the lowest NER at 11% while Punjab has the highest value at 26%. Punjab, at the primary school level, has a higher NER than the national average of 21%. 50 Low enrollment, high repetition rates, average for primary and upper secondary the prevalence of overage students, and rates stood at 89% and 76%, respectively. the high number of dropouts impact In South Asia, the primary completion rate completion rates, which are low across is 90%, substantially higher than Pakistan’s all levels of the education system. For rate of completion at 67%.4 instance, out of every 100 students While the system invests in providing expected to complete primary education students with an education, these each year, only 67 students successfully investments do not reach enough finished the final year of primary school. children. Too many are overlooked, and This trend of decreasing completion rates although some may come to understand continues as students get older. For lower the value of education later in their life, secondary education, only 43 out of every they are unable to reclaim and maximize on 100 students expected to complete this the individual and social benefits of a basic level did so. When it comes to completing education. This underscores the urgent the full cycle of basic education, which need to address the efficiency challenges includes upper secondary school, the and opportunities to make better use of rate drops even further: only 23 out of limited resources in Pakistan to reach more every 100 students expected to reach this children. level successfully managed to do so. 3 In 2019, completion rates for Pakistan are 03 EFFICIENCY IN THE EDUCATION SECTOR IN PAKISTAN low against any comparator: The world To ensure all children complete their schooling and benefit from quality education, Pakistan must invest more in education and improve the efficiency of those investments. 51 Geography, expenditure and education outcomes Expenditure across districts in Pakistan distance and cost required to provide shows substantial variation. While some public education. Given this extensive districts spend over US$1,000 per student variation in expenditure per child per (Figure 3.3), many districts, particularly in district, two points of interest arise: (1) Punjab, spend less than US$100. The factors the correlation between expenditure driving these disparities are multiple, and education outcomes, and (2) the encompassing elements like population potential degree of efficiency in translating density, enrollment, and the availability expenditure into education. of public schools, which affect both the Spending per student on Education varies across districts Figure 3.3. Spending per student on education varies across districts Balochistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Punjab Sindh 03 EFFICIENCY IN THE EDUCATION SECTOR IN PAKISTAN 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Expenditure per student (US$), rounded to nearest 10 AEPAMcalculations Data:Authors’ Source: 2018/19 | BOOST based on 2010-2021 data from BOOST 2010–2021 (average). Note: There exist substantial variation in expenditures across districts in Pakistan with spending reaching greater than US$1,000 per child in some districts. There are a number of districts within the province of Punjab that spend less than or equal to US$100 per child. 52 Districts that invest more funds per is weak: an increase of 1% in education student tend to exhibit improved expenditure is linked to a decrease in the learning outcomes and increased access percentage of OOSC, as indicated by a to education. As seen in the regression coefficient of -0.021. This figure illustrates analysis, which controls for a set of district a negative association. However, despite and household level characteristics, the statistical significance, the economic there is a correlation between education size is minimal. For instance, a district expenditures and several key outcomes would need to double its expenditure per (Table 3.1). The results reveal a significant child to achieve a mere two percentage positive correlation between education point reduction in dropout rates. Similarly, expenditure and several learning outcomes, a 10% boost in education expenditure such as math scores, English reading per child is correlated with an increase proficiency, and fluency in a local language. in the average years of schooling by just An increase in expenditure is positively over half a year (0.600 years). This positive associated with the number of years association, while statistically significant, students spend in school. Also, higher is economically minor. Comparable expenditure is linked with lower rates conclusions are drawn when considering all of OOSC. Taken together, these findings the learning outcomes in Table 3.1. suggest that districts that invest more In short, the education system struggles to funds per student tend to exhibit improved 03 EFFICIENCY IN THE EDUCATION SECTOR IN PAKISTAN convert financing into substantial results learning outcomes and lower rates of in the sector. Although more investment children who are out of school. in education is needed, the system can Although there is indeed a role for improve its efficiency by strengthening expenditure in enhancing education the association between expenditure and outcomes, increased expenditure does education outcomes, making every rupee not strongly translate into improved count toward advancing learning outcomes outcomes (the economic size of the for children. relationship is small). The correlation Table 3.1. More expenditure, better education outcomes Dependent Variable: Math English Local Years of Out of school Covariates: reading reading school ALL Log of primary spending 0.028*** 0.025*** 0.029*** 0.061*** per primary student (US$) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.010) Log of total spending -0.021*** per student (US$) (0.003) Observations 73,262 72,639 73,364 73,580 74,096 R2 0.15 0.14 0.12 0.62 0.16 Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Province fixed effects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from ITA 2021, Population Census 2017, and PSLM 2018–2019. Note: Results from a regression analysis of the outcome variable in each column on expenditure (ln) and a set of sociodemographic controls that includes gender of household head, household head years of education, child gender, house ownership, computer ownership, smartphone ownership, electricity connection, population density, and public student proportion. Standard errors in parentheses. (*, **, ***) denote statistical significance at 10%, 5% and 1% levels, respectively. Mean of dependent variables math, English reading, local reading, years of school, and out of school is 0.266, 0.298, 0.303, 4.03, and 0.192, respectively. 53 Efficiency at the country, district, and school levels The concept of efficiency is crucial expenditure but also to pinpoint. This in public expenditure, particularly in analysis establishes an efficiency frontier education, where the use of resources that represents the best output that can can significantly impact children’s lives. be achieved for every level of education An effective tool for examining efficiency expenditure. Consequently, any system is the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), a positioned below this efficiency frontier method used in economics to estimate the is deemed inefficient relative to its most efficient production frontier. In the counterparts on or close to the frontier. following sections, the report examines the Pakistan is substantially far from results of applying DEA analysis at three the efficiency frontier. The country’s levels to assess how effectively resources educational outcomes do not correspond are used to achieve educational outcomes. with those of more efficient nations with This will help identify inefficiencies similar levels of expenditure per child by showing the heterogeneity in the (Figure 3.4); those near the efficiency combination of inputs and outcomes. DEA, frontier (line). This discrepancy becomes as a methodology, provides the unique even more pronounced in comparison to opportunity to evaluate the comparative other countries in the South Asian region. efficiency of decision-making units—in 03 EFFICIENCY IN THE EDUCATION SECTOR IN PAKISTAN In both access indicators, enrollment in this case, provinces, districts, or schools— primary and enrollment in secondary thereby helping the system identify education, Pakistan trails all other regional opportunities for policy interventions. countries (Figure 3.4). For a similar level of expenditure per student, most other education systems deliver superior Efficiency at the country level outcomes for their children, as evidenced by the vertical distance between the dot Is Pakistan’s education system making for Pakistan and the efficiency frontier. efficient use of its resources? As shown This same challenge is evident when in figure 3.4, the DEA provides answers considering proxies for education quality, to this question by looking at four main such as youth literacy and the quality of outcomes of the education system: gross math and science (Figure 3.4). At similar primary enrollment, gross secondary levels of expenditure, countries worldwide enrollment, youth literacy rates, and the produce better educational outcomes for quality of math and science education. their children than Pakistan. Figure 3.4 shows how the relationship between education spending and the Pakistan’s inefficiency in spending resulting outcomes in Pakistan can be suggests the need for reforms to better understood by considering these maximize the use of resources to four perspectives. Countries worldwide improve educational access and quality. are points in a Cartesian plane, with per Moreover, the DEA findings underscore capita expenditure on education on the the importance of focusing not just on x-axis and an indicator of access or quality inputs (expenditure) but also on outputs on the y-axis (Figure 3.4). The DEA helps (educational outcomes) to make a not only to identify the most efficient difference in education quality and access. use of resources for any given level of Pakistan needs to spend better. 54 Figure 3.4. Efficiency at the country level (DEA) (a) Gross Grossprimary Primaryenrollment Enrollment vs versus education Education Expenditure (b) Gross Gross secondary enrollment Secondary Enrollment versus Expenditure vs Education expenditure Single−Input E iciency Curve (DEA) education expenditure Single−Input E iciency Curve (DEA) MDG CHN 100 140 NPL KAZ LKA 80 120 KAZ BGD 60 IND IND NPL Gross Primary Gross Secondary Enrollment Enrollment BGD 100 LKA PAK 40 PAK 80 20 60 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Public expenditure per capita on education Public expenditure per capita on education 03 EFFICIENCY IN THE EDUCATION SECTOR IN PAKISTAN Note: A DEA visualizes plot ranking countries against the most e icient. Note: A DEA visualizes plot ranking countries against the most e icient. Pakistan Pakistan ranks better than India in comparison to the most e icient ones ranks better than most SAR countries (India, Nepal, Bangladesh) in comparison to the most e icient ones (c) Youth Youth Data literacy Source: Worldversus Literacy Rate Bank /education WDIvs Education World expenditure Economic Expenditure Forum. (d) Quality Quality of of math Math and and science Science versusExpenditure vs Education . Data Source: World Bank WDI / World Economic Forum Citation: Single−Input E iciency Curve (DEA) education expenditure Single−Input E iciency Curve (DEA) Herrera,Santiago & Ouedraogo,Abdoulaye, 2018. E iciency of Public Spending Citation: in Education, Health, and Infrastructure: An International Benchmarking Exercise, Herrera,Santiago & Ouedraogo,Abdoulaye, 2018. E iciency of Public Spending Policy Research Working Paper Series 8586, The World Bank. in Education, Health, and Infrastructure: An International Benchmarking Exercise, LBNAZE UKR Policy Research Working Paper Series 8586, FINThe World Bank. 100 LKA 6 LBN IND NPL 80 IND LKA PAK 4 KAZ BGD Quality of PAK NPL Youth Literacy Math & BGD 60 Rate Science 2 40 20 0 0 500 1000 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Public expenditure per capita on education Public expenditure per capita on education Note: A DEA visualizes plot ranking countries against the most e icient. Pakistan Note: A DEA visualizes plot ranking countries against the most e icient. Pakistan ranks better than most SAR countries (India, Nepal, Bangladesh) in comparison ranks better than most SAR countries (Nepal, Bangladesh) in comparison Source: Authors’ to the most e icient ones based on data from Herrera and Ouedraogo calculation (2018). to the most e icient ones Note: A technical efficiency plot (input oriented) visualizes how much a country spends to achieve the same level of Data Source: World Bank WDI / World Economic Forum. Data Source: World Bank WDI / World Economic Forum. outcome as other countries. Analyzing the plot horizontally shows how much a country spends to achieve a score in comparison to other countries with a similar score. Analyzing the plot vertically Citation: Citation: shows how a country achieves a score Herrera,Santiago & Ouedraogo,Abdoulaye, 2018. E iciency of Public Spending Herrera,Santiago & Ouedraogo,Abdoulaye, 2018. E iciency of Public Spendin g based onin spending levels Education, Health, versus and other countries Infrastructure: spending An International the same Benchmarking amount. Exercise, in Education, Health, and Infrastructure: An International Benchmarking Exercise, Policy Research Working Paper Series 8586, The World Bank. Policy Research Working Paper Series 8586, The World Bank. 55 production across different expenditure Efficiency at the district level levels. For instance, while there are many districts that manage to yield substantial The DEA, when applied to district learning outcomes with an expenditure outcomes and expenditures, provides a level of US$50 per student, some districts nuanced understanding of the efficiency have low learning outcomes at the same of resource utilization across different expenditure level. This pattern is consistent districts in Pakistan. In Figure 3.5, each across all expenditure levels, suggesting dot represents data on learning outcomes, opportunities for collaboration, sharing enrollment, and expenditures per student best practices, and cross-learning to for a district within the country. The dots identify areas of low-cost improvement. are color-coded to identify the province Figure 3.5, as shown in the color-coding, they belong to. The placement of a district reveals that districts in Punjab tend to be on the graph illustrates the efficiency the most efficient, while those in Sindh level with which resources are being and Balochistan are typically the least utilized. By providing a visual analysis of efficient at every expenditure level. It is the data, efficiency patterns can be seen crucial to note that the graphs do not adjust across different provinces, identifying for specific district characteristics, such which districts are performing better or as poverty levels or population density, worse given their level of expenditure, both of which may impact efficiency. 03 EFFICIENCY IN THE EDUCATION SECTOR IN PAKISTAN and potentially discovering areas for Nevertheless, these unconditional improvement or best practices that could efficiency scores are significant; they be shared across districts. provide a firsthand, immediate overview of the substantial differences in efficiency There are significant insights to draw across districts. from this DEA. There is considerable variation in the efficiency of outcomes Districts in Pakistan show different levels of efficiency in their educational expenditure, with Punjab’s districts on average showing higher levels of efficiency. 56 Figure 3.5. Efficiency at the district level (DEA) Percentage of Students that can read Local stories vs Percentage of Students that can read English sentences vs Education ● Balochistan Expenditure ● Khyber Pakhtunkhwa ● Punjab ● Sindh Education Expenditure Local Reading data from ASER 2020/21. English Reading data from ASER 2020/21. Single−Input E iciency Curve (DEA Input Oriented) Single−Input E iciency Curve (DEA Input Oriented) (a) Outcome: Students that can (b) Outcome: Students that can Balochistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Balochistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Punjab language read local Sindh stories (%) read English Punjab sentences Sindh (%) 60 60 Abbottabad, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Sheikhupura, Punjab Faisalabad, Punjab 50 50 Faisalabad, Punjab Jhelum, Punjab 40 40 Jhelum, Punjab Local English Story (% ) Sentences (% ) 30 30 20 20 10 10 Okara, Punjab Okara, Punjab 0 0 03 EFFICIENCY IN THE EDUCATION SECTOR IN PAKISTAN 0 50 100 150 200 250 270 0 50 100 150 200 250 270 Percentage of Students per Expenditure that can perform primary Division vs student (US$) Percentage of Expenditure Primary level Enrolled per primary vs (US$) student Education Expenditure Education Expenditure Data: AEPAM 2018/19 | ASER 2020/21 | BOOST 2010−2021 Data: AEPAM 2018/19 | ASER 2020/21 | BOOST 2010−2021 Math data from ASER 2020/21. Enrollment data from PSLM 2018/19. Single−Input E iciency Curve (DEA Input Oriented) Single-Input E iciency Curve (DEA Input Oriented) (c) Outcomes: Students that can (d) Outcome: Balochistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa perform division (%) Punjab Sindh Enrollment (%) Balochistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Punjab Sindh Jhelum, Punjab 60 100 Okara, Punjab Chakwal, Punjab 90 Sargodha, Punjab 50 Faisalabad, Punjab 80 70 40 Jhelum, Punjab 60 Math Division (%) Enrolled 30 (%) 50 40 20 30 20 10 10 Okara, Punjab 0 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 270 0 50 100 150 200 250 285 Expenditure per primary student (US$) Expenditure per primary student (US$) Data: AEPAM 2018/19 | ASER 2020/21 | BOOST 2010−2021 Data: AEPAM 2018/19 | PSLM 2018/19 | BOOST 2010-2021   Source: AEPAM 2018–2019; ASER 2020–2021; BOOST 2010–2021. Note: Efficiency analysis of students that are able to read local language stories visualizes that most of the districts from Punjab form the efficiency frontier with one district belonging from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) in relation to all others. From the plot, Punjab and KP have districts closer to the efficiency frontier, an indication that their efficiency score is closer to districts forming the efficiency frontier versus those from Sindh and Balochistan. When it comes to students’ ability in reading English sentences, there is a similar picture; however, the efficiency frontier is formed by districts from Punjab only. A cluster is formed on the lower end of the y-axis for district from Sindh and Balochistan, indicating lower efficiency. Five districts form the efficiency frontier when analyzing efficiency for students’ ability in performing division in mathematics. The districts are all from Punjab and within the plot, major districts closer to the efficiency frontier are from Punjab, including scores on the higher side. The analysis of out-of-school children (OOSC) is opposite to the way we described for plots (a) to (c). Most of the districts forming the efficiency frontier are from Balochistan, which has the highest number of OOSC among the provinces. Districts from Sindh and Balochistan spend less and are seen to have a lower incidence of enrollment while Punjab and KP spend slightly more and show higher enrollment rates. 57 Geographical disparities in efficiency decentralization process in Punjab and KP are significant. This report maps district after the 18th Amendment, which has not variation in efficiency, where each circle necessarily advanced at the same pace represents a district in the country, and in Balochistan and Sindh. It signifies an colors represent the province where that opportunity for districts and provinces to district is located (Figure 3.6). Districts learn from each other, adapting, emulating, in Punjab consistently score higher in and scaling up what works. efficiency than other provinces and host The DEA thus stresses the importance of some of the most efficient districts in the investigating the differences in education country; districts in Punjab also appear expenditures further to identify successful to be more efficient than those in other policies and practices in the more efficient provinces (we see more yellow circles to regions and to create formal mechanisms the right of the figures). KP districts come of coordination and knowledge sharing second, showing better efficiency scores among provinces. Lessons learned (indicated by dark green circles in Figure from these districts could potentially be 3.6) than Sindh and Balochistan, which applied in less efficient areas. Moreover, consistently have the least efficient districts it underscores the need to understand across all outcomes (Figure 3.6). and address the specific challenges faced Geographical disparities in educational by districts in Sindh and Balochistan to 03 EFFICIENCY IN THE EDUCATION SECTOR IN PAKISTAN efficiency suggest the presence of improve their educational efficiency. systematic regional differences in Pakistan. This may be linked to a deeper Creating formal coordination and knowledge-sharing mechanisms can help identify successful teaching practices across districts and provinces to boost student learning. 58 Figure 3.6. The most efficient districts in Pakistan Efficiency Score of Students that can read Local Stories Efficiency Score of Students that can read English sentences ● Balochistan ● Khyber Pakhtunkhwa ● Punjab ● Sindh DEA Input-Oriented, Single-Input: Expenditure per Primary Student (USD) DEA Input-Oriented, Single-Input: Expenditure per Primary Student (USD) Balochistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Balochistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Outcome: Sindh (a) Punjab Outcome: Sindh (b) Punjab Students that can read local stories Students that can read English sentence 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Efficiency score Efficiency score 03 EFFICIENCY IN THE EDUCATION SECTOR IN PAKISTAN Efficiency Score of Students that can perform Division Efficiency Score for Enrollment at Primary Level (1 - OOS) Data: AEPAM 2018/19 | ASER 2020/21 | BOOST 2010-2021 Data: AEPAM 2018/19 | ASER 2020/21 | BOOST 2010-2021 DEA Input-Oriented, Single-Input: Expenditure per Primary Student (USD) DEA Input-Oriented, Single-Input: Expenditure per Primary Student (USD) Balochistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Balochistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (c) Outcome: Punjab Sindh Outcome: Sindh (d) Punjab Students that can perform division Student enrollment 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Efficiency score Efficiency score Data: AEPAM 2018/19 | ASER 2020/21 | BOOST 2010-2021 Data: AEPAM 2018/19 | ASER 2020/21 | BOOST 2010-2021 Source: AEPAM 2018–2019; ASER 2020–2021; BOOST 2010–2021. Note: Circles represent districts and colors represent different provinces. Circles to the right of each panel indicate higher efficiency scores. Visualizing efficiency scores geographically for students’ ability to read local stories indicates higher efficiency scores in the northern part of the country with the most efficient districts in Punjab. Most efficient districts fall within Punjab, according to the scores of students who can read English sentences. A similar pattern is observed whereby the central and northern parts of the country are doing relatively better than those in the south. The pattern is replicated when observing the ability of students in performing division in mathematics where all five of the most efficient districts fall in Punjab. Mainly districts from Punjab are among those with the highest efficiency score in terms of enrollment. 59 results for science (Figure 3.7b). However, Efficiency at the school level it is worth noting that compared to other countries, Pakistan’s efficiency frontier is Is there a similar variation in the efficiency substantially lower, given that scores can with which schools can transform inputs reach as high as 700 points on the TIMSS into outcomes? To investigate this, the scale. report uses data from the 2019 Trends in International Mathematics and Science What do all these findings imply? The Study (TIMSS). TIMSS is particularly useful implications presented in this section are as it provides extensive background and clear. Pakistan has the potential to achieve sociodemographic characteristics. While better learning outcomes by spending there is a lack of data on expenditure per its limited resources more efficiently. school, we construct an index of inputs Provinces, districts, and schools can benefit for each school and use it to assess how greatly from learning from each other, each school in Pakistan’s sample converts sharing experiences on organizational those inputs into learning outcomes in processes, deepening decentralization, science and mathematics, the two subjects and managing limited resources at the included in TIMSS (Figure 3.7). school level. These findings suggest that structured and formal platforms for Similar to Pakistan’s provinces and collaboration could substantially improve districts, its schools demonstrate 03 EFFICIENCY IN THE EDUCATION SECTOR IN PAKISTAN the efficiency of the limited resources substantial variability in their efficiency at that Pakistan invests in education, thereby producing learning outcomes. There are paving the way for increased investment. schools that are more and less efficient. Evidence from other federal countries With an input math score of 10, differences undergoing education decentralization may between schools are staggering, of almost be useful to add to the policy options that 300 points on the TIMSS scale (which Pakistan can consider as it deepens its own ranges from 100 to 700) (Figure 3.7a). Similar decentralization process. variations in schools are present in the Figure 3.7. Efficiency at the school level Pakistan School Level Math Score (TIMSS) vs. related characteristics Pakistan School Level Science Score (TIMSS) vs. related characteristics e Characteristics Include: Teacher, Child, School & Hom Characteristics Include: Teacher, Child, School & Home (a) Outcomes: 2019 TIMSS math score, by school Single−Input E iciency Curve (DEA) (b) Outcomes: 2019 Single−Input E iciency TIMSS science score, by school Curve (DEA) 600 600 Most e icient Most e icient Most e icient 500 500 Most e icient 400 Most e icient 400 Math Science Score Score Most e icient TIMSS TIMSS 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 10 20 30 0 10 20 30 PCA score of multiple characteristics PCA score of multiple characteristics Note: A DEA visualizes plot ranking schools against the most e icient in Pakistan. Note: A DEA visualizes plot ranking schools against the most e icient in Pakistan. Data Source: TIMSS 2019 Data Source: TIMSS 2019 Source: Author’s calculations are based on data from TIMSS 2019. Note: Efficiency frontier for TIMSS math score denotes large variations among schools when measured against an index of inputs. Efficiency frontier for TIMSS science score depicts large variations among schools; however, variation in the science score is more spread out with schools on the lower score level than the variation in the math score. 60 RECOMMENDATIONS EFFICIENCY Pakistan needs to spend better on education. Teachers are key. It is also essential to ensure that middle and secondary school teachers Given the sizeable portion of the budget possess deep subject-matter expertise. In dedicated to teacher salaries, the most many schools, it has become a necessity to impactful way of enhancing system place students in multigrade classrooms, efficiency is by ensuring that teacher making it crucial to equip teachers with effectiveness in the classroom is higher. effective strategies for multigrade teaching. Improving teaching practices directly This involves clear policies, specialized bolsters system efficiency by improving teacher training, clear guidelines on the learning outcomes for students. Due to a materials to use, and ongoing monitoring limited budget, Pakistan must prioritize and evaluation. Also, reviewing and enhancing the efficiency of its educational revamping preservice teacher training expenditure. This is not only to achieve 03 EFFICIENCY IN THE EDUCATION SECTOR IN PAKISTAN practices can yield investments that drive more with the existing resource of teachers long-term system improvements. but also to reassure the public that the education system can indeed serve Learning children, families, and the nation effectively. To enhance learning, it is vital to embrace A key part of this strategy involves teaching methods that have yielded improving teacher recruitment, significant results both internationally and management, and development. within Pakistan. Some evidence-based This encompasses how teachers are strategies that have positively impacted recruited, supported, trained, managed, learning outcomes in Pakistan and other evaluated, and promoted. Establishing a countries can be found in initiatives such comprehensive teacher career pathway as the Pakistan Reading Program, Teach can foster continuous improvement, for Pakistan, the contributions of an NGO maximizing teachers’ classroom impact. called Durbeen for teacher training in Leadership roles at schools and within Sindh, the Citizens Foundation’s training districts should be clearly delineated and for teachers and leaders, and the “Teach at supported. Moreover, teacher deployment the Right Level” approach piloted in Khyber policies need an overhaul to ensure Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province by the Centre equitable distribution across schools for Economic Research in Pakistan (CERP) and educational levels, providing clear and other provinces by Idara-e-Taleem- guidelines on teacher incentives and o-Aagahi (ITA), and Punjab’s data-driven absenteeism consequences. This will also continuous teacher training approach. provide a barrier against political patronage. However, it is not just about training teachers. From the moment children step Focusing on pedagogical practices in early- into school, comprehension is key. Given grade reading and writing, complemented Pakistan’s linguistic diversity, clear policies with relevant learning materials, promises regarding language instruction in schools both immediate and long-term efficiency are crucial, as are their implementation gains. Structured in-service training, by the public sector. Transitioning from ongoing feedback, and quality resources home languages to instructional languages (Recommendations continue on next page.) 61 RECOMMENDATIONS EFFICIENCY (continued) presents challenges, compounded by between available funding and educational parental preferences for specific languages objectives. Leveraging existing data for they believe will ensure their child’s budget planning not only promises a success. A transparent mother-tongue more efficient allocation of resources policy, which includes open communication but also shields the budgetary process to involve parents, will facilitate smoother from inappropriate external influences. transitions to the designated instructional There is also an imperative need for a languages. Lastly, campaigns promoting comprehensive discussion on the 8th effective parenting practices, especially National Finance Commission (NFC) Award, early reading, will optimize subsequent specifically on introducing incentives educational investments, ensuring children related to education financing at both begin school at the right age and better federal and provincial levels. Strengthening equipped to thrive, while funds are the capacity of education department progressively and strategically mobilized to personnel in budget planning, monitoring, begin expanding early childhood education. and procurement can ensure optimal Improvements in learning through utilization of the limited development evidence-based programs will require budget each year. This should be the alignment of curriculum, assessment, complemented by a transition to improved language policies, and teaching if results are development planning and program- and expected to be achieved at a system level. school-centric budgeting, and a strategic, sustained engagement with finance Financing and budgeting departments to ensure the timely release Improvements in efficiency will remain of funds. By decentralizing expenditures elusive for Pakistan without incorporating down to the school level and broadening financial and budgetary processes and school grants, school leadership can be strategies into a reform agenda. From bolstered. Such decentralization also a financial perspective, defining clear increases the likelihood of consistently targets and consistently monitoring meeting the foundational infrastructure them in alignment with realistic sector requirements essential for maintaining safe plans could help bridge the disconnect learning environments. SECTION NOTES 1 In 2018, Pakistan’s primary school repetition rate was 2 EPDC (2009). 1.9%, and 1.6% for lower secondary. These rates are 3 Government of Pakistan (2022). high when compared to other countries in South Asia and the World (UNESCO 2022). 4 UNESCO (2022). 62 04 EQUITY IN PAKISTAN’S EDUCATION Societies aim to provide every child with fair and equitable access to education. Despite these intentions, factors such as education policies on equity and access, parents’ decisions on school choice and attendance, and resource allocations determined by the government often lead to disparities in children’s educational opportunities. By examining differences in outcomes for some subgroups of the population, policy makers, parents, and other stakeholders can gain insights into how the education system can more effectively meet the needs of all children in the country. 63 KEY MESSAGE EQUIT Y Inequities are reinforced leaving these inequities unaddressed. Persistent educational inequalities lead by the way educational to reduced social mobility, eroded social funds are allocated. cohesion, decreased civic participation, and limited opportunities for segments The combination of low and inefficient of the population, preventing individuals’ spending leads to an inequitable provision full societal contribution and perpetuating of educational services across regions cycles of poverty. Addressing these and among different population groups. disparities to ensure equal opportunities Such practices limit the education of for all children is essential. To achieve this, disadvantaged populations, exacerbating Pakistan can ensure a more equitable inequities. Children from low-income distribution of resources by using data for families, those living in remote areas, girls, targeted initiatives, enhancing the technical children with disabilities, and minorities and managerial capacity of districts, and often receive fewer educational resources. incorporating an inclusive perspective into This situation negatively impacts their budget processes. Any decisions to expand enrollment, progression, and learning the system via private or public schools outcomes. Although data exist that would impact equity and would need to be highlight these disparities, they often considered. are not used during budget planning, Equity challenges in access and quality of education Approximately 20.3 million school-age totaling approximately 14 million children. children are out of school.1 This number However, Balochistan and Sindh hold the is expected to have increased given the country’s highest provincial rates of OOSC.3 COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 floods, Girls’ education is one of the most which impacted 33% of the country. Out- critical issues for equity and inclusion in of-school children (OOSC) are more likely to Pakistan, with about 11 million girls out live in rural areas, come from low-income of school, roughly 2 million more than households, and be older. About 35% of boys. In 2018, 26% of girls and 19% of boys rural children (15 million) ages 5 to 16 are out had never attended school. Some of the of school, compared with 20% (4.4 million) major challenges that limit girls’ education of urban children. This gap has remained are poverty and distance to school.4 The constant over the past two decades. More gender gap falls as wealth rises: among secondary-school-age children are out poor families, girls are 22 percentage points of school (40%) than middle-school-age less likely to attend school than boys, children (25%) or primary-school-age while there is no gender gap in school children (23%).2 The number and share of attendance for children from the wealthiest OOSC differ drastically across provinces: 53% quintile, where enrollment is around 87% of all OOSC live in Punjab and 23% in Sindh, 64 for both genders. Girls face challenges to boys and girls, and rural and urban children. their security in public spaces, when taking Across Pakistan, the overall enrollment transportation, and near schools.5 Given rate for children ages 5 to 16 is 68%, which concerns about security, parents in Pakistan masks crucial differences. For instance, at often delay the education of their girls (more younger ages, enrollment rates for girls and than boys) or prevent them from attending boys are only 42% and 45%, respectively. school altogether. At the current pace of Despite the enrollment rate experiencing incorporating girls into schools, it will take a sharp rise during primary-school-age Pakistan at least 50 years to enroll all school- children, peaking at 86% for boys and 77% age girls (and 31 years to enroll all school-age for girls, it dwindles quickly as children start boys).6 becoming teenagers. A significant gender enrollment gap of about 10 percentage Hiding behind the overall enrollment points disadvantaging girls remains by the numbers is an alarming reality: almost time children are of school-finishing age. 20% of children ages 10 to 16 have never stepped foot in a school. This is more A similar pattern of enrollment disparity common among girls, with a 27% rate emerges when comparing children from compared to 16% among boys. The disparity urban and rural areas. The urban-rural is also more pronounced in rural areas, divide is noticeable from as early as age 5, where 26% of children have never been to which is the official school-going age. Even school, compared to 12% in urban regions. more concerning is the gap’s size, starting at The situation is particularly dire in Sindh a substantial 17 percentage points. Although and Balochistan where children have never the gap slightly narrows to around 11 been to school at 34% and 38%, respectively. percentage points during the primary school Conditions are slightly better in Punjab years, it rapidly expands again to almost 20% 04 EQUITY IN PAKISTAN’S EDUCATION and KP, where children have completely by the time children reach age 16, putting missed out on schooling at 14% and 20%, rural children at a substantial disadvantage. respectively.7 This gap underscores the urgent need for effective interventions and policies to better Girls and children in rural areas are less support rural enrollment and retention, and likely to attend school at any age. As directly impacting efficiency of the resources illustrated in Figure 4.1, the enrollment that have already been invested in these profiles differ significantly when comparing children. Figure 4.1. Girls and children in rural areas are less likely to be in school (a) Enrollment, by age and gender (% of children) (b) Enrollment, by age and rural status (% of children) 86% 85% 81% 82% 81% 89% 88% 77% 77% 85% 86% 86% 82% 80% 71% 78% 70% 77% 76% 76% 73% 72% 65% 78% 69% 70% 77% 73% 74% 64% 66% 72% 64% 64% 56% 57% 67% 66% 62% 57% 58% 45% 54% 52% 47% 45% 42% 38% 5 7 9 11 13 15 5 7 9 11 13 15 Girls Boys Urban Rural Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from PSLM 2019–2020. Note: Enrollment profiles differ significantly when comparing boys and girls by age. From age 8 onward, there is an approximately 10 percentage point difference between the two genders with girls consistently displaying lower enrollment scores by age. Enrollment profiles also differ significantly when comparing rural and urban areas by age. Rural enrollment remains consistently lower than urban enrollment with similar patterns by age. 65 BOX 9 Disability and inclusion Data on children living with disabilities in Pakistan is slowly improving, with the inclusion of questions about disability in the survey tools of both the Pakistan Social and Living Standard Measurement (PSLM) and the Annual Status of Education Report (ASER). Both tools include some of the core Despite improvements in data collection, questions presented by the Washington information is still unreliable, as some Group on Disability Statistics to assess families respond inaccurately due to internationally comparable measures social stigma. 3 Discrimination continues to related to disability, such as seeing, affect children with disabilities in Pakistan, hearing, communication, cognition, though the government has made efforts walking, and self-care.1 to initiate different programs to support their well-being in school. For example, The Pakistan Demographic and Health the government has introduced legislative Survey (2017) shows that roughly 13% frameworks that adopt international of children age 5 years and above conventions around inclusive education.4 In have difficulty in at least one of the addition, roughly 20% of schools in Pakistan aforementioned domains. 2 According to cater to children with special needs. 5 the 2019-20 PSLM, the share of OOSC with disabilities at the primary school level is However, more work is needed to ensure significantly higher than children without that children with disabilities are truly 04 EQUITY IN PAKISTAN’S EDUCATION disabilities (Figure B9-1). The number only included in the education system. First, increases at the secondary school level. strengthening data collection instruments and properly identifying children with Figure B9.1. Share of out-of-school children disabilities remain critical to better serving those children.6 Without this knowledge, 80 Total Male Female administrators, teachers, policy makers 70 and community members cannot make 69.2 67.6 71.5 60 appropriate recommendations and 50 accommodations. Second, more efforts are 40 needed to mainstream issues for children 30 with disabilities, to ensure that they have 20 31.3 access not only to school buildings but also 25.4 10 20.3 to safe transportation options and teachers 0 who are trained in special education. Out-of-school rate for children Out-of-school rate for children without a disability (%) with a disability (%) Finally, mainstreaming inclusive education into the formal education system will take Source: Bashir and Ahsan, 2023. much more government coordination and provincial ownership, given the highly decentralized nature of Pakistan.7 1 Bashir and Ahsan (2023). 5 UNICEF (2021). 2 UNICEF (2021). 6 Rose and Singal (2018). 3 Shaukat (2022). 7 Rose and Singal (2018). 4 UNICEF (2021). 66 Rural girls in Pakistan face the greatest province). Despite these strides, there is still barriers to education, a pattern that room for growth as gross enrollment rates surfaces in every province but varies in are still far from reflecting all children in severity. All provinces have significant gaps school. Since almost 50% of the children in in enrollment rates between rural girls and the country live in Punjab, any increase or other groups, such as rural boys and urban decrease in enrollment would directly drive children (Figure 4.2). This gap is particularly up enrollment rates for Pakistan as a whole. glaring in KP, Sindh, and Balochistan, where Sindh, in contrast, is a cause for concern. the differences in enrollment rates between As the province with the second-largest rural girls and urban boys at age 10 reach 34 population in Pakistan, it is alarming that percentage points, 47 percentage points, it presents some of the lowest enrollment and 34 percentage points, respectively. This rates for rural girls—rates that are the results in staggering low enrollment rates lowest in the country at certain ages (35% for rural girls in KP (29%), Sindh (12%), and for 10-year-olds and 12% for 16-year-olds), Balochistan (12%) by the time girls should rivaled only by Balochistan (Figure 4.2). Given be completing school. Only 10% of girls are these challenges, Sindh could focus more enrolled in school in Sindh and Balochistan on efforts to increase school enrollment, by the time they are 15 years old. particularly among rural girls, if the country Punjab stands out in these findings. In this wants to improve the efficiency of the province, the enrollment gap between urban whole system. Given its combination of low girls and boys has nearly closed (Figure education outcomes and high population, 4.2). The range in school attendance rates improving enrollment rates in Sindh would between urban and rural children in Punjab significantly boost national figures and has also narrowed to just 18 percentage contribute meaningfully to addressing 04 EQUITY IN PAKISTAN’S EDUCATION points (substantially lower than any other education disparity in Pakistan. Figure 4.2. Gross enrollment for urban and rural boys and girls, by province Urban boys Rural boys Urban girls Rural girls Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from PSLM 2019–2020. Note: All provinces have KP Punjab significant gaps in enrollment 100% 100% rates between rural girls, rural boys, and urban children. The gap 80% 80% between rural girls and others is significantly higher in KP, Sindh, 60% 60% and Balochistan. This leads to low enrollment rates for rural girls in KP (29%), Sindh (12%), and Balochistan 40% 40% (12%) by the time girls should be finishing school. In Punjab, the 20% 20% enrollment gap between urban girls and boys has nearly closed. 0% 0% 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Sindh Balochistan 100% 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 67 Challenges in enrollment and learning Punjab show higher learning outcomes, and outcomes persist in some districts (Figure they are more effective at enrolling children 4.3), varying significantly within and in school. These differences per district across provinces, which emphasizes the highlight the need for tailored strategies to different challenges of each province and tackle challenges in different parts of the the national education system’s capacity same province. Any solutions, however, to address them all. The cases of learning need to consider public capabilities for outcomes and enrollment per district show implementation and the local context of the geographic heterogeneity: districts in the provinces and districts. Figure 4.3. Provincial and district disparities in learning and enrollment ● Balochistan Ability of Students ● inKhyber Pakhtunkhwa reading ● Punjab a story in Urdu/Pashto ● Sindh Enrollment Rates Across Districts Ages 5 to 16 (a) Outcomes: Balochistan Reading in local language (% of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (b) Enrollment   per district (% of students, ages Punjab Sindh students) 5–16) Balochistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Punjab Sindh 04 EQUITY IN PAKISTAN’S EDUCATION 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Score Enrollment rate Data: ASER 2021 Data: PSLM 2019/20     89% (c) Learning poverty 78% 78% 70% post-COVID-19 Punjab Sindh KP Balochistan Source: Authors’ calculations are based on data from ASER 2020–2021, PSLM 2019–2020, learning poverty estimates, and World Bank calculations. Note: Learning outcome of children when using ASER data for measuring child’s ability to read a story in local language depicts large variations across districts. Enrollment per district also varies widely with a visible pattern where the southern part of the country experienced lower enrollment in comparison to central and northern parts. Learning poverty by district is high for all provinces, with Balochistan taking the lead (89%), followed by KP (78%), Sindh (78%), and Punjab (70%). 68 At the provincial level, learning poverty Equity issues are evident in learning rates display substantial disparities outcomes across various other groups. (Figure 4.3). Learning poverty is a metric While there is only a small difference in introduced by the World Bank to measure language outcomes by gender as measured the percentage of 10-year-olds who cannot by citizen-led assessments (in rural areas) read and understand an age-appropriate at grade 5, international assessments reveal text.8 The metric counts all OOSC among variations that favor girls in both math the learning poor. Roughly 9 in 10 children and science in a representative sample of in Pakistan are learning poor, while Punjab schools in Pakistan (Figure 4.4). As seen exhibits a notably lower percentage of 7 in in Figure 4.4, girls score 19 points and 10 children experiencing learning poverty. 38 points higher than boys in math and This diversity in education outcomes across science, respectively. provinces calls for customized solutions to address the challenges faced by each province. Figure 4.4. Inequity in learning outcomes (a) Difference in performance for different (b) Difference in learning outcomes for boys and subgroups TIMSS assessments for Math in TIMSS ASER girls in rural, %Test Score (ASER Pakistan by Gender assessment) and Science and Subject 360 80 Math (Boys - Girls) 340 338 04 EQUITY IN PAKISTAN’S EDUCATION 70 320 319 Science (Boys - Girls) 311 60 English (Boys - Girls) 300 Local Lang (Boys - Girls) 51 Score Score 280 50 48 49 273 45 260 40 240 30 220 20 200 Girls Boys Girls Boys Source: Authors’ calculations based on TIMSS and ASER Pakistan 2021. Note: TIMSS assessments for math and science reveal that girls outscore boys by 19 points and 38 points, respectively (yellow marker = girls). ASER data reveal that a slight difference between learning outcomes between girls and boys. In ability to read local stories, girls outscore boys by 3 percentage points. When measuring ability of children in reading English sentences, girls outperform boys by 2 percentage points. 69 Education and the poor: A tale of two types of schools Poor children in Pakistan are areas (40.1%). Among the provinces, it underrepresented in the education is highest in Punjab, where 62.9% of all system. The official national methodology students go to private schools (not shown). for measuring monetary poverty classifies The share of poor students attending households that spend less than PKR private schools is 19.3%. Despite the low 3,757.85 per adult equivalent each month percentage of poor students in private as poor. Based on this definition, in the schools, private schooling remains a major fiscal year 2018–2019, approximately 28.4% option for households, serving 42.4% of all of children under 18 were identified as students in the country. poor. Despite the high number of poor Overall, girls are underrepresented among children, only a fifth (18.6%) of the student students: 44.5% of all enrolled students population comes from poor households are girls, even though they represent (Table 4.1). The education system struggles 48.6% of all children under 18 (Table 4.1). to bring poor children into the school The share of students who are female system. varies significantly across regions. For Private schooling is widespread in example, in Punjab, 48.2% of students are Pakistan, serving 42.4% of all students girls, but in KP and Balochistan, just 38.0% (Table 4.1). The share of private schooling and 34.9% of students, respectively, are among total enrollment is higher in urban female (not shown). 04 EQUITY IN PAKISTAN’S EDUCATION Table 4.1. Profile of currently enrolled students: Girls, the poor, and public versus private schools Girls Boys All Poor Total number of students  24,287,444 30,351,982 54,639,426 10,167,943 Share of total 44.5% 55.5% 100.0% 18.6% By region: Rural 56.7% 62.4% 59.9% 79.9% Urban 43.3% 37.6% 40.1% 20.1% By poverty status: Nonpoor 82.8% 80.3% 81.4% Poor 17.2% 19.7% 18.6% By type of provider: Government 57.2% 57.9% 57.6% 80.7% Private (NGOs, madrassas, others) 42.8% 42.1% 42.4% 19.3% Source: Authors’ calculations based on HIES 2018–2019 microdata and welfare data obtained from World Bank Poverty Global Practice’s Database of Harmonized Datasets DATALIBWEB. Note: The subsample of the poor includes currently enrolled students from households classified as poor based on the official monetary poverty measure. A fifth (18.6%) of the student population comes from poor households. Private schooling is widespread in Pakistan, serving 42.4% of all students. 70 Poor girls are underrepresented in of public schools when they can afford education compared to nonpoor girls to do so or when alternative options are (Figure 4.5). Better-off households are available nearby. This two-tier education more likely to send girls to school: among system exacerbates existing socioeconomic poor students, 41.1% are girls, compared disparities, as children from better-off to 45.2% of students from nonpoor families typically have access to superior households. The gap between the share opportunities both at home and in private of girls in the total population, compared schools, which could further increase to the population of enrolled students is inequality. For instance, rural private 8.4 percentage points for the poor and 3.1 schools offer children a broader spectrum percentage points for nonpoor girls. of learning opportunities than their public- school counterparts.9 Rural private schools Most poor students tend to attend public are more likely than rural public schools schools, and their representation in to have usable water and slightly higher private school enrollment is low. Almost availability of usable toilets and boundary 81 of every 100 poor students attend public walls. They are also more likely than schools (Table 4.1), but poor students only rural public schools to have solar panels, represent 8% of all students enrolled in computer labs, and smartboards, by 56 private schools (Figure 4.5). This situation percentage points, 82 percentage points, can be symptomatic of parents opting out and 36 percentage points, respectively. Figure 4.5. Poor girls are underrepresented in school enrollment, and poor children are underrepresented in private schools (a) Poor children arelikely are less Poor Children to attend less likely school, to become (b) Distribution of students in private schools, Students, compared to nonpoor children by poverty status 04 EQUITY IN PAKISTAN’S EDUCATION Compared to Non-Poor Children 60% 8.5% Nonpoor 50% Poor 48.3% 49.5% 40% 45.2% 41.1% 30% 20% 10% 91.5% 0% Nonpoor Poor Girls as a share of all students Girls as a share of all children Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from HIES 2018–2019. Note: Nonpoor families are more likely than poor families to send their girls to school. Among poor families, 41.1% have girls who attend school, while in nonpoor families, 45.2% of their girls attend school. The difference between the number of girls in the whole group and the ones in school is 8.4% for poor girls and 3.1% for the nonpoor girls. Out of all the children going to private schools, only 8.0% come from poor families. Children of nonpoor families usually have better chances to learn and are able to learn both at home and in school. This might make the learning gap between nonpoor and poor children even bigger. 71 The implications of a two-tier education along socioeconomic lines and negatively system, where the poor predominantly impacting the self-esteem and aspirations attend public schools, while the nonpoor of students attending these schools. If attend private schools, are extensive and wealthier families favor private schools, profound. This system risks promoting they may be less inclined to support public social segregation, limiting opportunities schools, exacerbating funding disparities for interaction and learning among children and less attention to accountability of the from diverse backgrounds in a world that public sector. Ultimately, as education is is increasingly polarized by political and viewed as a critical driver of social mobility, social issues. One concerning outcome a system that inherently favors wealthier is the potential stigmatization of public students perpetuates socioeconomic schools, potentially labeled as “institutions inequality. for the poor,” further dividing society Figure 4.6. Learning outcomes, by socioeconomic background and type of school (a) Learning outcomes, by socioeconomic (b) Learning outcomes in private schools are higher Learning Outcomes by Socio-Economic Background background (average score) Average Score (Punjab, in number of years of learning) Years of Education Mastered 600 4 More affluent More disadvantaged 3 500 04 EQUITY IN PAKISTAN’S EDUCATION Number of years 2 2.3 2.3 Subject score 1.9 400 372 Math 338 335 1 Science 300 303 0 Public Private PEF 200 Source: Authors’ calculations based on 2019 TIMSS. Source: Authors’ calculations based on SABER SDI Survey, Punjab 2019. Note: More affluent = Schools where more than 25% of the student Note: The SABER-SDI Survey includes 18,055 student observations from body comes from economically affluent homes and not more than the province of Punjab. PEF = Punjab Education Foundation. Learning 25% from economically disadvantaged homes as reported by the outcomes in private schools surpass those in public schools by 0.4 Principal’s Reports; More disadvantaged = Schools where more than years. 25% of the student body comes from economically disadvantaged homes and not more than 25% from economically affluent homes. 72 Students from more affluent effectively increase school enrollment and socioeconomic backgrounds achieve improve educational quality. However, better learning outcomes. These students the current two-tier system of public perform better on standardized tests than and private schools exacerbates existing their more disadvantaged peers (Figure 4.6). socioeconomic inequalities as poorer The difference in performance between the children receive an inferior quality of two groups is substantial, amounting to 34 education in public schools, which tends to points and 32 points in math and science, limit their future opportunities and social respectively. mobility. Learning outcomes in private schools To improve learning outcomes for slightly surpass those in public schools, all students requires better service despite overall low-learning levels for delivery, especially in public schools. all students. In Punjab, after four years of Service delivery in public schools requires schooling, children in private schools have increased attention, support, and mastered 2.3 years of the curriculum, in accountability to ensure better quality. The comparison to 1.9 years mastered by those comparable performance of students in in public schools (Figure 4.6). Interestingly, PPPs in Punjab to those in private schools students in public-private partnerships suggests that innovative approaches (PPPs), such as those in Punjab Education involving the private and public sectors Foundation (PEF) schools, perform similarly are part of the solution. These findings to nonsupported private schools. Others underscore the critical importance of have also documented that PPP students ensuring access to high-quality education outperform students in the public sector for all children, regardless of their in Pakistan.10 In theory, the better results of socioeconomic status. This objective can 04 EQUITY IN PAKISTAN’S EDUCATION private school can be explained by school be achievable through better regulation autonomy in the use and presence of of schools, especially private schools. important inputs in the education process, Analysts have emphasized that the cost such as ensuring teacher quality and advantage of private schools, especially pedagogical inputs in the schools. low-fee schools, often stems from underpaying teachers, sometimes even Children at private schools generally below minimum wage.11 Private schools achieve higher learning outcomes, often tend to hire female teachers who are local, at a lower cost than public schools, yet, moderately educated, and have limited poorer children predominantly attend alternative employment opportunities.12 public schools. This situation has several Closer oversight to enforce labor and implications for the educational system and other relevant laws in private schools, resource allocation. PPPs could be used to in particular low-fee schools, is key to rapidly expand the system and enhance its ensuring that the education expands in quality, as demonstrated in Punjab over the a way that gives teachers the protections last few decades. If better regulated and guaranteed under labor laws. integrated into a strategic plan, PPPs could 73 Government interventions on the demand and supply of education introduced transfers to families of children Programs to support the in middle, secondary, and high school, demand of education supporting beneficiaries up to the higher secondary level.13 It also created differential As of 2024, the Benazir Taleemi Wazaif cash transfers for girls, to tackle the low program, formerly known as the enrollment rates of girls among the poor. Waseela-e-Taleem program, is the The program is coordinated with provincial most effective tool Pakistan utilizes education departments. From 2013 to 2023, to stimulate education demand. This the program has enrolled about 12 million conditional cash transfer (CCT) initiative is students (with 47.5% girls) and disbursing a designed to encourage families to enroll total of PKR 63.34 billion. their children in school by alleviating the financial burden and incentivizing families’ The CCT program is designed to address commitment to education. This program the primary challenges of getting children operates under the broader umbrella of the to school in Pakistan. It provides greater Benazir Income Support Program, which resources for girls’ attendance, as they is dedicated to protecting and helping the traditionally have lower enrollment poor and vulnerable, specifically those in rates, and for all children’s attendance at the bottom two quintiles of the income higher levels of education (Table 4.2). This distribution. structure provides incentives to boost 04 EQUITY IN PAKISTAN’S EDUCATION enrollment. For example, to encourage In 2012, the CCT program was piloted in primary school completion for girls, a five districts, later expanding to 32, 50, one-time graduation bonus of PKR 3,000 is and 100 districts in 2015, 2018, and 2020, disbursed. respectively. In 2020, the CCT program expanded to all districts of Pakistan and Table 4.2. Quarterly stipend rates for enrolled students for the Taleemi Wazaif program (in PKR, 2023) Level Girls (PKR per quarter) Boys (PKR per quarter) Primary 2,000 1,500 Secondary 3,000 2,500 Higher secondary 4,000 3,500 Source: Benazir Income Support Program 2023. 74 The beneficiaries of Taleemi Wazaif side intervention is influenced by the receive quarterly transfers, if they supply of educational opportunities in maintain 70% attendance, which is many areas and highlights the importance assessed on a quarterly basis by the of working together not only with provincial program. Students who cannot meet this education departments and joint targeting condition for three consecutive quarters are tools to maximize the impact of the removed from the program. To be eligible, increased spaces for children but also the students must be active beneficiaries of Taleemi Wazaif program. BISP Kafaalat and fall in the age brackets A notable strength of the program is its of 4 to 12 years, 8 to 18 years, and 13 to 22 robust attendance monitoring system. years for primary, secondary, and higher Education departments stand to benefit secondary education levels, respectively. from this model to bolster their own The process also entails mandatory education management information verification through the National Database systems (EMIS) and enhance the and Registration Authority (NADRA) reporting of educational statistics. This database. can be achieved if BISP and provincial In 2016, before the program’s expansion, departments formalize collaborations an impact evaluation was conducted on data sharing and devise a concrete comparing beneficiaries in districts plan to learn from BISP’s data collection where the Taleemi Wazaif program system for the Taleemi Wazaif. This would was implemented to similar potential require extending data collection to all beneficiaries in districts where the program students in each province, enabling more was not active. The results showed a effective educational decision-making significant increase in school enrollment due and potentially leading to more efficient 04 EQUITY IN PAKISTAN’S EDUCATION to the program, especially among primary use of public resources during budgetary students ages 5–12, with comparable decisions. increases for both boys and girls (at that Pakistan has experimented with other time, the payment for both boys and girls programs to incentivize demand for was the same). Compared to households education with success. These include not benefiting from the program, Taleemi student vouchers (as currently seen in Wazaif raised the enrollment of children in Punjab’s Education Voucher Scheme the same age group by 10 percentage points. program), and girls’ stipends in Sindh and When the children benefiting from Taleemi Punjab, among others. BISP and provincial Wazaif were compared to those benefiting governments have agreed that BISP will from the base Benazir Income Support not offer secondary school programs in Programme (BISP), there was an additional districts where provinces already have a increase in enrollment by 9 percentage similar program for girls. Overall, these points.14 types of stipend programs have shown A unique aspect of the Taleemi Wazaif positive results, in both the short and program is its attempt to align available long term: they increase the likelihood spaces in both public and private schools of beneficiaries completing secondary with potential beneficiaries. This ensures school, reduce the likelihood of teenage that families wishing to send their children marriage and childbirth, and even exhibit to school have a nearby, accessible option. intergenerational effects (children of However, this is contingent upon meeting women exposed to the program are two conditions in the respective areas of less likely to be underweight or stunted). the country: (1) the existence of operational These impacts seem to be achieved public or private schools, and (2) adequate through “assortative mating” by education, school capacity for new students.15 This improved health knowledge, and women suggests that the success of this demand- empowerment.16 75 New initiatives employing mobile phone technology to encourage reenrollment The supply of education in schools via text messages have shown services: Teachers promise. In this experiment in Punjab, one group of families received messages that Pakistan’s education system presents a specifically mentioned the adolescent supply-side puzzle. Enrollment in primary girl in their households, while another education is relatively high. There were 25.7 group received gender-neutral messages. million enrolled students in 2020–2021. The findings indicate that text messages However, enrollment plummets to 8.3 on reenrollment and gender-neutral million in middle school. This substantial messages successfully encouraged families drop is largely due to a scarcity of middle to send girls back to school after school educational institutions, which decreased reopened.17 Given the positive results and from 187,900 schools to 49,300 schools the low cost of text messaging compared during the same period (Figure 4.7). to other alternatives, this approach Meanwhile, the count of teachers across all presents an efficient method to help boost levels, approximately 1.6 million (primary, reenrollment and initial enrollment rates.18 middle, and high school), remains relatively constant across education levels at 0.5 million.19 This results in a disproportionate The supply of education spread of teachers in the education system (Figure 4.7). In high school, there services are 8 students per teacher. In middle school, there are 17 students per teacher. Much discussion has surrounded In primary schools, where there are the the challenges of providing quality highest number of students, there are the 04 EQUITY IN PAKISTAN’S EDUCATION educational resources in Pakistan. fewest number of teachers. Primary schools An abundance of statistics is available have nearly 49 students per teacher. The regarding the supply of such inputs high number of teachers in middle and as textbooks, teaching and learning high school relative to primary school, materials, and the need for infrastructure despite substantially lower enrollment improvements. However, in this section, after primary school, is further confounded the report focuses on strategies that could by the provincial education departments’ significantly impact education on a broad confirmation of nearly 200,000 unfulfilled scale if teacher management programs positions as of 2023. The situation is more and PPPs are implemented correctly. The pressing considering that almost 40% of former represents the largest expenditure schools in Pakistan have some form of in the education sector and, if improved, multigrade teaching (see section below). can yield substantial efficiency gains on public resources. The latter is a strategy that Pakistan has been employing for almost two decades. 76 Figure 4.7. Student-teacher ratios and education institutions, by education level (a) Student-teacher ratios drop (b) Drastic drop in the number of schools significantly after primary education after primary education (in thousands) (2020–2021) 200 60% 700 180 600 50% Number of Institutions (in thousands) 160 595.9 500 140 522.8 Student-Teacher Ratio 40% Number of Teachers 485 400 120 100 187.9 30% 49% 300 80 20% 60 200 40 10% 17% 100 49.3 32.3 20 8% 0% 0 0 Primary Middle High Primary Middle High Source: Authors’ calculations using data from the Pakistan Economic Survey 2021. Note: There has been a decline in student-teacher ratios, from nearly 49 students per teacher in primary schools to 17 students per teacher in middle schools and reaching 8 students per teacher in high schools. There has been a drastic decline in the number of schools after the primary level. There are 187,900 primary schools, 49,300 middle schools, and only 32,300 high schools. Even though Pakistan requires subject- Improving teacher management and 04 EQUITY IN PAKISTAN’S EDUCATION matter teachers for middle and secondary deployment can significantly enhance the schools, the low teacher-to-student efficiency of the most important inputs ratio in the face of declining student in the education system. To accomplish enrollment postprimary education calls this, the following four key inputs could into question the effectiveness of existing be considered: ensuring appropriate human resource strategies and teacher teacher-student ratios, incentivizing rural management and deployment policies. school placements, streamlining the There is a persistent demand from teachers recruitment process, and improving the to transfer to “better locations”; there is teacher deployment process. To improve a preference for schools in urban centers the efficiency of the education system, it is that promise improved living conditions important to ensure that teacher-student for teachers and their families. However, ratios are appropriate to facilitate effective it is important to consider that there may teaching and learning. Another crucial input be instances where political interests for improvement is to make teaching in align with facilitating teachers’ requests rural schools attractive by having incentives for school transfers through education in place, such as differential salaries, departments, given the critical role teachers housing allowances, hardship allowances, play as polling agents during political or fast-tracked career progression to elections. attract and retain teachers in rural areas. 77 Enhancing teacher support, recruiting local teachers, and creating career development opportunities can attract and retain good teachers in the classrooms that need them the most. Rural schools should also meet minimum the Islamabad Capital Territory. Although infrastructure standards, which will make these rates are, in general, lower than rural postings more attractive for teachers. in similar countries, the fact that 14% of 04 EQUITY IN PAKISTAN’S EDUCATION It is also important to streamline the teachers in the public sector are absent recruitment process to fill vacant positions from school on any given day means that faster, including for professionals from nearly 215,000 teachers are absent from other areas who want to become teachers. their classrooms, and an estimated 4.3 Transparency in the hiring process can million students are not benefiting from attract more qualified applicants and the main input in their education. reduce favoritism and political influence. Provincial governments could also Hiring teachers from local communities make strides in supporting the teaching could also be considered. The final key profession and better manage the input to help improve the efficiency of the workforce. Incentives could be put in place education system is to employ data-driven to help improve the recruitment processes, decision-making in teacher deployment onboarding, certification, support, to identify vacancies and anticipate performance evaluation, promotions, and openings, creating incentives and removing exit strategies from the education system. restrictions on the teacher deployment and For example, for teachers already in the management process (e.g., which teachers system, professional support could be can apply to which schools). Technology given to help them advance in their careers can support these process changes without having to leave the classroom to efficiently and ensure transparency. become administrators, keeping good Relatively high rates of teacher teachers in the classroom.21 Defining a absenteeism are another signal that career path for school administrators and teacher management in Pakistan stands leaders that includes pedagogical support to improve. Data from Punjab in 2019, for as part of their duties could also go a long example, shows that in unannounced visits, way in professionalizing teaching and 14% of teachers are absent from school.20 establishing the incentives for an improved Data from 2021 confirms a similar rate for quality learning environment. 78 of teachers, and other inputs for program The supply of education schools. However, it is unclear how much services: Public-private of the additional enrollment came from students already enrolled in the system. partnership The program increased enrollment by 59% (around the enrollment cutoff for Pakistan has experimented with several schools to be eligible), additional teachers programs to enhance education provision by 46%, classrooms by 47%, and reduced via public-private partnerships (PPPs) crowded classrooms by 14%.23 Balochistan in multiple provinces. Overall, these experimented with PPPs more than 20 programs include direct subsidies and years ago with the Quetta Urban Fellowship vouchers to students to use in specific Program (similar to the FAS in Punjab), schools, partnerships with NGOs to which incentivized the opening of private manage public schools, and collaborations schools for girls by offering subsidies with private schools to offer new places or directly to schools and guaranteed public open schools in underserved regions. PPPs support for three years; the program amount to roughly 5% of the education increased girls’ enrollment around 33 department budget in Punjab, the largest percentage points.24 A similar program in implementer of PPPs in the country. rural areas of Balochistan had no impact on The strategy of integrating the private school enrollment.25 sector into education service delivery has Existing research indicates that in been institutionalized through Provincial Punjab, PPPs generally cater to a similar Education Foundations across all demographic of students in the public provinces. Within this framework, private sector who are typically less affluent than schools receive a per-student subsidy, as 04 EQUITY IN PAKISTAN’S EDUCATION students enrolled in private schools. While seen in the Foundation Assisted Schools private school students tend to come from Program (FAS) in Punjab and Sindh, or wealthier backgrounds and often receive the private sector adopts a public school, private tuition, there is no significant taking over their management and daily difference between the socioeconomic operations, such as in the Adopt a School status of students enrolled in PPP schools Program (AASP) in Sindh or the Public and those in public schools, both groups School Support Program (PSSP) program being relatively less affluent than students in Punjab. These partnerships particularly in private schools. Students participating in emphasize supporting access in areas the New School Program (one of Punjab’s where public schools are underperforming PPP initiatives) are the most disadvantaged and the prevalence of OOSC is high. These among all PPP students, confirming programs have requirements for selection the progressive targeting of PPPs in the and performance and have developed data province.26 This suggests that targeting monitoring systems for decision-making. of PPPs is adequate to reach the most Robust evaluations of the PPPs in Pakistan marginalized children. have shown positive results on access and An alternative approach to PPPs with learning (when measured). In Sindh, the some demonstrated effectiveness Promoting Private Schooling in Rural Sindh involves the public sector outsourcing (PPRS) shows substantial results in both the management of public schools to the access and quality in marginalized areas private sector. The PSSP in Punjab provides of the province; it increased enrollment government subsidies per enrolled student by 32 percentage points and learning by in public schools. The results indicate 0.63 standard deviations.22 In Punjab, the that enrollment in program-affiliated FAS program has shown large positive schools increased by over 60%, though impacts on school enrollment, the number average test scores decreased. However, 79 it remains unclear whether this reduction The lessons and experiences from the past in learning is due to the overall academic 20 years of implementing PPPs in Pakistan performance of newly enrolled students provide a solid foundation for a new or to the short-term potential disruptions generation of PPPs. Below are some ideas caused by the program.27 More research to consider for improved use of PPPs: is needed to understand how to preserve → Enhance interdepartmental and gains in enrollment and ensure that student interprovincial coordination. Bolster learning increases. the synergy between education New research in Pakistan underscores departments and education the need to examine the distribution of foundations, ensuring strategic learning outcomes within schools, not planning, data sharing, and targeting just across schools by type. Conclusions to eliminate program overlap and about differences between public and unnecessary competition between private schools may vary significantly PPP and public schools. Develop and when assessed at different points in the implement concrete institutional distribution of learning. 28 Given this, it protocols for coordination. Encourage becomes crucial to invest in and develop cross-province knowledge sharing strategies targeting the effectiveness of on operational, implementation, teachers in classrooms, regardless of and policy design. Pakistan’s diverse whether the teacher-student interaction program experiences can provide occurs in public or private schools. valuable insights to enhance service delivery through PPPs. PPPs in Pakistan have demonstrated significant results on the ground, both → Prioritize underserved groups. in terms of access and quality. They are 04 EQUITY IN PAKISTAN’S EDUCATION Implement targeted strategies for institutionalized as part of government delivering education to children with processes and have been used to address disabilities and other underserved the needs of the most marginalized groups. An inclusive and welcoming children. However, some modalities, such school culture and infrastructure as NGO-managed public schools, face should be promoted in every school. challenges with no observable increase in learning outcomes. → Focus on supply-side programs in primary, middle, and high school. Consolidate efforts toward improving and expanding programs that target supply-side issues while enhancing coordination with BISP to use it for demand-side programs. A well- coordinated approach with the CCT program will allow resources to be used more efficiently for monitoring, managing, and regulating the PPP schools at the provincial level. 80 → Strengthen governance and Close monitoring, enforcement of laws and management. Improve teacher- programs’ design features are necessary to related policies, including law- enhance accountability of private schools. abiding compensation, and promote How many children do PPPs in Pakistan transparency. Foster accountability support? According to data from the 2021 through easy-to-access data with all education foundation reports in Sindh stakeholders. Consider introducing and Punjab, Sindh supports approximately policy amendments allowing education 960,000 children, while Punjab supports 2.2 foundations to raise funds, enhancing million children mainly through the FAS and their capacity directly. Maintain a the NSP. 30 Altogether, at least 3.2 million focus on building an evidence base children are supported through PPPs in the with rigorous impact evaluations and country. These numbers may be higher, but process evaluations. Avoid duplication data from KP and Balochistan education of functions when implementing foundations are not provided on their PPPs, such as the occurrence of websites. For comparison, it is estimated administrative overlap in the Sindh that nearly 5.0 million children attend Education Foundation and the religious schools. 31 PPP node at the School Education Department. As of 2023, school payments through PPPs vary. Monthly payments include PKR 550 → Emphasize learning outcomes. per student in primary school, PKR 600 While PPPs have proven effective in elementary, PKR 900 in secondary arts in enhancing access to education, schools, PKR 1,100 in secondary science their impact on education quality schools, PKR 1,200 in higher secondary is mixed. Strengthen incentives and arts schools, and PKR 1,500 in higher 04 EQUITY IN PAKISTAN’S EDUCATION regulations to align PPPs with learning secondary science schools. In Punjab, as while strengthening regulations and of 2023, the public payments for a child’s monitoring their adherence. Requiring education per school year is between partners to focus on heterogeneity US$20 and US$52 (286 PKR/US$). In 2021, within schools could potentially speed the rate was between US$37 and US$97 per up increases in student learning. year per student; the difference is due to recent exchange rate fluctuations. (In 2017, Taking stock of what Pakistan has achieved yearly spending per student was US$338 in in education PPPs in the last 20 years will primary and US$668 in secondary.) allow the country to think and develop a new generation of PPPs that can deliver The substantial difference between the improved outcomes for children. PPPs cost of educating a child in the public should not be viewed as replacements for system makes the PPP model particularly offering access to quality public education attractive and efficient. However, there but as a strategic and complementary tool have been several issues associated with to address the immediate educational this model. One pressing concern is that needs of children.29 PPPs led by education the lower cost of private schools, including foundations should work closely with the those under PEF and others, is often linked public sector, strengthening the state’s to the underpayment of predominantly capacity to provide and widen access to young female teachers, many of whom quality education. Incorporating nonformal earn below the provincial minimum wage. 32 education programs into PPPs’ design and This underscores the need for careful aligning the institutions, both at federal and regulation design and further enhancement provincial levels, will enhance the efficiency of the PPP model. 33 of public expenditure, reduce duplication, and enhance the effectiveness of programs. 81 Household education spending patterns On average families spend 5% of their At the other end of the spectrum, poor household budgets on the education of households, and those in Balochistan, their children. In 2018–2019, households spend the least amount on education. In spent PKR 1,424 per student, which Balochistan, 50% of all households do not amounts to .8% of their total monthly report any education spending, and the spending (Table 4.3). However, there is average household spends less than 50% large variation across the population. of the national average, which might be Households in Punjab spent the highest related to the low prevalence of private amount per student (PKR 1,518), while schooling in Balochistan, the lowest in the households in KP devoted the largest share country. Similarly, poor households spend of their monthly budgets to education: 20% of what nonpoor households spend 6%. Urban households on average spend per student (PKR 367 versus PKR 1,665) and the highest amount on education (PKR allocate just 3% of their monthly budget 2,121), more than twice as much as rural to education, about 50% of what nonpoor households (PKR 957). households spend (Table 4.3). Table 4.3. Household spending on education Average monthly spend per student Education (2018–2019 PKR) 04 EQUITY IN PAKISTAN’S EDUCATION budget share   All Private Public Pakistan 4.8% 1,424 2,314 769 By region: Rural 3.8% 957 1,686 612 Urban 6.3% 2,121 2,838 1,144   By province: KP 5.8% 1,253 2,111 758 Punjab 5.2% 1,518 2,348 836 Sindh 3.6% 1,444 2,449 672 Balochistan 1.9% 664 1,515 414   By poverty status: Nonpoor 5.2% 1,665 2,465 936 Poor 2.5% 367 673 294 Source: Authors’ calculations based on HIES 2018–2019 microdata and welfare data obtained from World Bank Poverty Global Practice’s Database of Harmonized Datasets DATALIBWEB. 82 These differences in education spending In addition to fees, transportation costs come largely from the choice of private are also twice as high for private school- versus public schooling: the average cost goers, along with the cost of books and for families of sending a child to private private tuitions. These differences are school is three times higher compared reflected in the composition of education to public (government) schooling (2,341 spending, which is dramatically different versus 769; see Table 4.3). This difference for both. School fees take the biggest stems primarily from school fees, which share for those enrolled in private school are more than seven times higher in (45.5%), compared to just 10.8% for public private schools since public education is school students. In both cases, books largely free of cost (Figure 4.8) while fees in and uniforms form the second largest private schools include teachers’ salaries. component of education spending. Figure 4.8. Breakdown of education expenditure for families (a) Breakdown of Breakdown of education Education costs, Spending by type of Categories (b) Breakdown of education costs, Public Vs Private Schooling school (monthly spending per student; PKR) by type and poverty status Fees 7.3% 8.02% 168 Other 149 Pakistan 27.0% 18.7% 21.3% 17.7% Transport 120 Books By poverty 118 8.1% 8.92% Public status: Private tuitions 103 04 EQUITY IN PAKISTAN’S EDUCATION Nonpoor 29.8% 17.3% 20.1% 15.8% Uniforms 94 Hostel 54 Poor 13.1% 25.8% 27.2% 27.0% Exam fees 23 3.3% 3.55% Fees By type of 1263 7.8% 8.13% provider: Private tuitions 256 Private 45.5% 11.6% 16.7% 10.4% Transport 241 Books 231 Govt 10.8% 24.7% 25.5% 23.8% Private Other 181 7.0% 8.22% Uniforms 140 Hostel Fees Books Exams/Transport/Hostel 58 Uniform Private tuition Other Exam fees 47 Monthly spending per student (PKR) - 2018-2019 Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from HIES 2018–2019. 83 The per-student cost of private schools of household and individual level also varies across the population (Figure characteristics are included as independent 4.9). Students from poor households variables, including age, gender, type of tend to attend low-cost private schools, provider, level of schooling, household size, spending just 25% of the average for welfare status, and location identifiers. This nonpoor households (2,465 versus 673). analysis corroborates the importance of Private schooling is also significantly more private provision, location of households, expensive in urban areas (2,838 versus 1,686 and welfare status as significant correlations in rural areas), and in Sindh (2,449) and in households’ education spending per Punjab (2,348). student. In addition, it also points toward the level of schooling and mother’s level To identify other potential determinants of literacy as important factors. Having of households’ education expenditure, a literate mother is associated with an a multivariate regression analysis increase of PKR 392 per month in a (not shown) was carried out. A range student’s education spending. Figure 4.9. Public versus private school spending (PKR) Source: HIES 2018–2019. Private Note: Children from poor families often go to low- Public cost private schools, spending only 25% of the amount nonpoor families spend (2,465 compared to 673). Private Pakistan 2,314 schools are also much pricier in cities, leading to the 769 enrollment of 2,838 students compared to 1,686 students in rural areas, and this is especially true in Sindh (2,449 students) and Punjab (2,348 students). 04 EQUITY IN PAKISTAN’S EDUCATION By region: Rural 1,686 612 Urban 2,838 1144 By province: KPK 2,111 758 Punjab 2,348 836 Sindh 2,449 672 Balochistan 1,515 414 By poverty status: Nonpoor 2,465 936 Poor 673 294 84 Figure 4.10. Education expenditure across the welfare distribution 59.4% Share of total enrolled students Share of total education expenditure 22.2% 24.0% 18.4% 19.9% 15.5% 10.9% 19.1% 6.7% 3.9% Quintile 1 Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Quintile 5 Source: HIES 2018–2019. Note: The wealthiest of households contribute to 59.4% of all the money spent on education. Within different income groups of students, the percentage of students enrolled in school also rises along with the household income level, with the richest quintile having the highest enrollment (24.0%). 04 EQUITY IN PAKISTAN’S EDUCATION The analysis further indicates that poorest. This difference can be attributed education spending varies vastly across to the higher likelihood of the wealthiest the welfare distribution. Belonging to children attending private schools, where the top welfare quintile 34 is associated fees are higher, and opportunities for with an increase in spending per student further investment, such as private tutoring, of PKR 2,106 per month relative to the abound. bottom quintile. However, moving from Strategies to increase the quantity and the lowest quintile to the second or even quality of public schools are key to third quintile does not appear to have improving education system equity in a significant correlation with education Pakistan. Focusing on providing more spending. Because of this large disparity, and better education opportunities to education spending by the top quintile poor households, girls, and middle- and accounts for 59.4% of total spending on secondary-school-age children top the education made by households (Figure priority list and should be attended to first. 4.10), showing substantial inequality PPPs can complement these efforts and between the top income quintile and enhance the efficiency of public spending. the rest of the population, especially the 85 RECOMMENDATIONS EQUIT Y Inequities are reinforced Girls by the way educational Ensuring safe spaces for girls through boundary walls, hiring female teachers, funds are allocated. and providing proper water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) facilities can Equity significantly impact equity. Effective, To enhance equity, Pakistan could long-term strategies might encompass reevaluate its existing mechanisms that recruiting teachers from local communities, address disparities in expenditure per diversifying school calendars to cater to all child, establishing targets and monitoring children, formalizing multigrade teaching processes to reduce such differences. By where needed, and identifying cost- using clear formulas anchored in data effective programs with care for children and principles of equity and inclusion, with disabilities, among other initiatives. In resources can be directed where they are the process, it is vital to set aside budgets most needed, helping to bridge spending and establish targets that align with these 04 EQUITY IN PAKISTAN’S EDUCATION gaps. Programs could be tailored to cater budgets, ensuring the programs’ viability. to populations that have traditionally been Emphasizing female well-being, which marginalized. Notably, given the scarcity of includes safe transportation for both middle schools and prevalent dropout rates teachers and students, offering life skills, after primary school, there is a pressing and providing other cocurricular activities, need to emphasize elementary schools can empower girls. This approach not that go to grade 8 in rural areas. only enhances their learning but also enables them to leverage their education to positively impact their families and communities. 86 Allocating resources to underserved areas and hiring local female teachers can enhance equity and improve education for girls in Pakistan. 04 EQUITY IN PAKISTAN’S EDUCATION SECTION NOTES 1 Out-of-school children (OOSC) accounted for in 19 Government of Pakistan (2022). learning poverty calculations are assumed not to have 20 Geven (2019). achieved minimum proficiency in reading. This means that the inclusion of OOSC increases learning poverty 21 World Bank (2013). rates. 22 Barrera-Osorio et al. (2022). 2 MOFEPT (2020a). 23 Barrera-Osorio and Raju (2015). 3 Ersado et al. (2023). 24 Kim, Alderman, and Orazem (1999). 4 Barón and Bend (2023). 25 Alderman, Kim, and Orazem (2003). 5 Report with the gender team. 26 Ansari (2020). 6 Barón et al. (forthcoming). 27 Crawfurd and Alam (2023). 7 The calculations are from Pakistan Social and Living 28 Andrabi et al. (2022). Standards Measurement Survey 2019–2020 (PBS 29 PPPs are a complementary tool to investments in the 2020). improvement of the public sector. See examples from 8 World Bank (2019a). the case of Punjab (Tahir and Geven 2023). 9 ASER Pakistan (2022a). 30 The Punjab Education Foundation (PEF) and Sindh 10 Amjad and MacLeod (2014). Education Foundation (SEF) are semiautonomous organizations with a mandate to support education 11 Andrabi, Khuwaja, and Das (2006). in the provinces through a multitude of interventions. 12 Bari (2023). See (PEF 2021) and sef.org.pk. 13 Benazir Taleemi Wazaif, formerly known as the 31 Government of Pakistan (2021). Waseela-e-Taleem (WET) program. 32 Andrabi, Khuwaja, and Das (2006). 14 Cheema et al. (2016). 33 UNESCO (2022). 15 Benazir Taleemi Wazaif, Benazir Income Support 34 Welfare quintiles associated with this distribution Programme, Government of Pakistan. were constructed by splitting the population- 16 Musaddiq and Said (2023). weighted distribution of the official welfare aggregate 17 Hasan et al. (2021). (consumption per adult equivalent) into five groups. The bottom quintile represents the bottom 20% of 18 Barrera-Osorio and Raju (2015); Churchill et al. (2021); the population in terms of welfare, whereas the top Hiraoka, Rizwan, and Taniguchi (2021); Iqbal (2021); quintile represents the top 20% of the population. Malik and Naveed (2012); World Bank (2011). 87 05 SYSTEM MANAGEMENT & COORDINATION Increasingly, the significance of management, both at the school and system levels, and the potential impact of the political economy on policy and implementation decisions affecting learning outcomes are being recognized. Understanding school management practices in Pakistan School management in Pakistan, as but less well in instructional leadership, approximated by the data collected in all with ICT leading the provinces with a provinces of Pakistan as part of the Global score of 3.3 (Figure 5.1). There is greater Education Policy Dashboard, indicates that variation in scores for school knowledge schools still have room for improvement and management skills. ICT lags with a in all indicators of school management. score of 2.1 in school knowledge and both Across provinces, schools perform better Balochistan and Sindh have relatively in operational management, with Punjab similar scores of 2.4 and 2.5 management scoring the highest at 4.6 out of 5.0, skills, respectively. These scores show that 88 all provinces have room for improvement making or management of education to ensure that students and teachers have personnel, implementation may be subject the inputs they need to succeed. to patronage. This result aligns with a hypothesis that budget allocations might be The Global Education Policy Dashboard swayed by political agendas, determining data (Figure 5.1) yields an impartial the direction of resource deployment and decision-making score intended to assess explaining the lack of correlation between the impact of external factors on the budget allocation and need. distribution of resources within education departments. Examining the indicators In fact, political patronage appears to be across provinces for the political economy a common occurrence in the education shows no discernible politicization in policy sector in Pakistan,1 and frustrated policy making (average score of 3.9) and personnel makers, analysts, and the public lament management (average score of 3.6, with the limited gains on access and learning Sindh bringing down the average), but does outcomes after substantial increases in reflect some degree of politicization in budgets that followed the enactment of policy implementation. This indicates that the 18th Amendment. 2 while favoritism is not evident in policy Figure 5.1. Score for school management and political economy 05 SYSTEM MANAGEMENT Source: Authors’ calculations based on Global Education Policy Dashboard for ICT 2021. Note: Analyzing the impartial decision indicators designed for Pakistan reveals that there is no significant bias in policy making (score of 3.5) and personnel management (4.1). However, there is evidence of partial politicization in policy implementation, with a score of 2.8, noticeably lower than the scores in other domains. 89 Findings from the Research on Improving Others have also documented political Systems of Education (RISE) diagnostic patronage examples in teacher hiring tool administered in Balochistan (2023) in KP, and the tension between teacher conclude that this tendency for political postings to rural schools and positions patronage pervades the system: remaining vacant. 3 It is rare to have patronage align with learning outcomes; “[T]he education system is well aligned— instead, patronage often generates but about patronage, not learning. … inefficient allocation of resources, resulting In analysing the school construction in suboptimal outcomes for children. reforms, … new schools were built according to political criteria rather Understanding the factors driving than community need. Budgets have children’s educational outcomes therefore been spent inefficiently, and in Pakistan is crucial when seeking available data was ignored. There is opportunities to improve the a misalignment between patronage- management of the system and its driven goals and access-oriented efficiency. While multiple factors influence finance and information.” school attendance and learning, not all fall within the education system’s purview. –Kakar, Saleem, and Sarwar 2022 This section of the report investigates the Consultations for this report, including primary drivers believed to significantly education analysts, academics, civil affect the system’s capability to generate society organizations, and public officials superior learning outcomes and expand from education, finance, and planning educational access. With Pakistan grappling and development departments have with fiscal constraints, optimizing resource corroborated the findings presented in the management in the education sector RISE report. will ensure more results from existing resources. This challenge requires a shift “[P]atronage has perverted teacher in both perspective and methodology. human resource (HR) systems. On Confronting systemic duplication in the one hand, reforms introduced an public sector and reallocating resources 05 SYSTEM MANAGEMENT examination-based teacher recruitment toward activities that target the real drivers policy. By ensuring that the teacher of low educational outcomes is essential. recruitment is conducted [in] a rules- based manner, this policy has helped insulate this aspect of teacher HR from the patronage in the surrounding system. However, teacher assignment is still driven by patronage and connections, allowing teachers to transfer out of undesirable rural posts and leaving many schools severely understaffed. Thus, access-aligned reforms in one part of the system (i.e., school construction) are undermined by patronage-aligned norms in another (i.e., patronage-based teacher assignment).” –Kakar, Saleem, and Sarwar 2022 90 What factors explain school attendance and dropout rates in Pakistan? By examining household data from almost poverty. Households with female heads the last 20 years, this report identifies are more likely to have children who attend the main factors that influence school school (both boys and girls) at all ages. attendance. A multivariate analysis enables Distance to school also notably impacts the identification of factors that most attendance, particularly considering age impact attendance, such as poverty, the and gender. The further a school is, the education level of the household head, the lower the attendance rate for primary- distance to the school, instances of early school-age children, regardless of gender. marriages, and rurality. Among the parents School attendance decreases by 10 surveyed for this report, respondents also percentage to 25 percentage points as the emphasized gender and age as contributing distance to school increases (compared factors to their children dropping out of to schools located within a 15-minute school. walk). Among older children (ages 10 to 16) In fact, poverty is the most significant increased distance to school significantly factor influencing school attendance for diminishes attendance for girls, but not children of all ages. This is measured using for boys (Figure 5.2). Numerous factors a wealth index. Children from families may contribute to this gap, such as safety in the bottom wealth quintile are 20 concerns for girls in their commute to percentage points to 40 percentage points school and within school premises. Girls less likely to attend school compared to frequently report instances of harassment children from families in the top quintile. and bullying.4 If schools do not offer what This holds true even after accounting for parents perceive as safe spaces, such other sociodemographic characteristics of as boundary walls and female teachers, the household. The impact is even more or they lack fundamental sanitation pronounced for older children. infrastructure, such as facilities with clean 05 SYSTEM MANAGEMENT water or accommodations for menstrual The educational attainment and gender hygiene, it becomes understandable of the household head plays a crucial why parents may opt not to send their role in school attendance. Children daughters to school. Only 63% of middle from households where the head of the schools in Balochistan and 79% in Sindh household has less education tend to have access to water, while even fewer attend school much less compared to (60%) of primary schools in these two those with more educated heads. This is provinces can say the same. Similarly, only a consistent finding across all age groups, 71% of middle schools in Balochistan and underscoring the significance of parental 83% in Sindh are equipped with boundary perspectives and norms in preventing the walls, whereas the percentages are intergenerational transmission of learning even lower for primary schools in these provinces, at 59% and 37%, respectively. 5 91 Rurality and early marriage are additional rural status significantly impacts school factors that impact girls’ school attendance for girls, particularly older girls, attendance. Early marriage affects school but not for boys of any age (Figure 5.2). This attendance for boys and girls ages 13 to 16 trend likely captures the more conservative (Figure 5.2). School attendance drops by norms and attitudes toward girls’ education almost 20 percentage points for children in rural areas. This difference is notable, who are married. Even after considering affecting attendance rates by 6 percentage rural-specific characteristics such as points to 10 percentage points. distance to school, poverty, and family size, Figure 5.2. Determinants of school attendance for younger (ages 5 to 9) and older (ages 13 to 16) children, by gender (a) Girls, ages 5 to 9 (b) Boys, ages 5 to 9 05 SYSTEM MANAGEMENT (c) Girls: ages 13 to 16 (d) Boys: ages 10 to 16 Source: Authors’ calculations based on PSLM Survey data 2004 to 2014. Note: This is a multivariate analysis of school attendance. Dots are marginal effect coefficients with confidence intervals at the 95% level. If the confidence interval of the marginal effect includes the value 0, then the result is insignificant at the 5% level. 92 When directly questioned about Parents’ reasons for dropping out of why children dropped out of school, school have a gender component. parents offered a variety of responses According to PSLM data, the reasons reflecting both demand- and supply- for more girls dropping out of school side constraints. Approximately 36% of compared to boys include parents not parents report their child’s unwillingness allowing them to attend (20 percentage to attend school, which may likely be points), the need to help at home (10 linked to parental attitudes toward percentage points), the school being too far education. Another 15% cited high cost as away (11 percentage points), the expense an educational barrier, signaling a demand of education (5 percentage points), and the issue. Parents also highlighted the need belief that further education is unnecessary for children to work either within (8%) (especially for older girls, 12 percentage or outside (9%) the household. A small points) (Figure 5.3). According to DHS data, fraction, about 4%, mentioned that the the reason more boys in comparison to school’s remote location was a contributing girls drop out is the need to work and earn factor, indicating a supply-side constraint.6 money (15 percentage points) (Figure 5.3). Note that the reasons given interact with These trends highlight the significance of each other and are only rough proxies for gender norms where dropouts are driven demand and supply. by stereotypes of traditional gender roles. Figure 5.3. Reasons for children out of school (ages 5 to 16), by gender (a) PSLM data (b) DHS data Difference in meansin Difference (Girls means- Boys) (Girls - Boys)     Difference Difference in meansin means (Girls (Girls - Boys) - Boys) Parents doParents not allow do not allow Further education Further education not necessary not necessary Had to work Hadat to home work at home School School too far too far Shortage of female teachers Shortage of female teachers much too much Costs too Costs Too far flung Too far flung Marriage Marriage Required Required for for household/farm household/farm work work complete complete Education Education 05 SYSTEM MANAGEMENT Got married Got married Lack of documents Lack of documents Not safe Not safe Education not useful not useful Education Shortage of male teachers Shortage of male teachers Transport Transport not available not available     Poor quality of schools Poor quality of schools Did Did not get not get admission admission Others Others Don't know Don't know Ill/Handicapped Ill/Handicapped Education is expensive Education is expensive failures failures Repeated Repeated Had to help towork with Had help with work Other Other or work Due to job Due to job or work in studies in studies Not interested Not interested Too young Too young Child not willing Child not willing Need to earn Need to earn .4 -.2 -.1 -.1 0 0 .1 .1 .2 -.3 -.2 -.3 -.1 -.2 0 -.1 .1 0 .2 .1 .3 .2 .4 .3 -.2 .2 Source: Authors’ calculations based on PSLM Survey data Source: Authors’ calculations based on DHS Survey data 2004 to 2014. 2004 to 2014. Note: Reasons why more girls drop out of school Note: The causes behind girls dropping out in contrast to compared to boys include parents not permitting them boys, include the schools being located too far away (a to attend (a difference of 20 percentage points) and the difference of 11 percentage points), the cost of education necessity to assist with household chores (a difference (a difference of 5 percentage points), and the perception of 10 percentage points). Conversely, reasons why more that additional education is not essential (particularly boys dropping out than girls include the need to work among older girls, a difference of 12 percentage points). and earn money (a difference of 5 percentage points) and A main factor for more boys than girls dropping out is being considered too young (a difference of 7 percentage the need to work and earn money (a difference of 15 points). percentage points). 93 Multiple factors impact parents’ decision fact, 88% of parents say the main reason to send their children to school, but one they send their children to private schools notable reason is that parents value the is “good teaching,” compared to 38% of quality of education and their belief in parents who send their children to public their children’s ability to access quality schools (Figure 5.4). In contrast, 43% of education. The primary reason parents opt parents reported that a main factor driving to send their children to private schools their decision to send their children to public is driven by their perception of quality. In schools is that it is “cheaper” (Figure 5.4). Main Parental Reason for Children’s School Enrollment By reason Figure 5.4. Main parental Type of for children’s school enrollment, by type of school School Public Private Good teaching Cheaper Near to home Female teachers Male teachers Good teaching behavior Good school environment No other school 05 SYSTEM MANAGEMENT Other 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Percent % Source: HIES 2018–2019. Note: Private schools are chosen by 88% of parents because of the quality of teaching, while public schools are chosen by 38% of parents for the same reason. On the flip side, 43% of parents point out the affordability of public schooling as the leading factor in their choice of school. 94 What factors explain low learning levels? Improving the management of the students. This interaction, underpinned by system in key aspects can certainly the teacher’s mastery of subject content increase the efficiency of the system in and effective pedagogical practices, producing learning outcomes. These key fundamentally determines the quality aspects include: teachers ready to teach, of education and, by extension, impacts schools ready to receive students with the student outcomes. most appropriate pedagogical organization An analysis of teaching practices across a (recognition of multigrade teachings as a sample of 809 schools in Punjab reveals reality of the system), and children ready both strengths and areas for improvement to learn. in pedagogical skills in the classroom (Table 5.1). Teachers demonstrated strengths in social behaviors within the Teacher readiness classroom culture, such as fostering supportive learning environments (70% Teachers hold a crucial role that of public teachers) and providing equal transcends merely disseminating opportunities for learning (89% of teachers information; they are key in shaping in all types of schools). However, in students’ academic journeys and overall instruction, only a few teachers displayed learning experiences. Considering they crucial teaching behaviors such as checking account for the largest portion of the for understanding of what is being taught education budget, enhancing teacher (11% of public teachers, for example) and effectiveness is a direct path to improving providing feedback to students (14% of expenditure efficiency. The essence of public teachers). teacher effectiveness lies in the quality of the interaction between teachers and Table 5.1. Share of teachers showing good pedagogical practices in Punjab, by type of school, 2019 05 SYSTEM MANAGEMENT Private and PPPs Good practices Public (average) Classroom culture 82 76 Supportive learning environment 70 61 Setting positive behavioral expectations 36 29 Providing equal opportunities to learn 89 89 Instruction 7 4 Lesson facilitation 28 11 Checking for understanding 11 6 Providing feedback 14 11 Critical thinking 3 2 Source: SABER SDI, Punjab 2019. Note: Two forms of practice were measured: classroom culture and instruction. For classroom culture, 89% of the teachers in public and private schools and PPPs demonstrated strength in providing equal opportunities for children to learn. Overall, approximately 66% of teachers (70% of teachers in public schools and 61% in private schools) fostered a supportive learning environment. For instruction, overall, 13% of teachers provided feedback to students while 9% of teachers checked their students for understanding. 95 The data reveal similarities and differences teacher training, with just a part of their across provinces in their teacher policies. training being executed in the classroom. For example, teacher support in all To enhance both the effectiveness and provinces is low, though teachers are efficiency of funds dedicated to teachers, generally quite motivated (Figure 5.5). In more practical, classroom-based support addition, the Islamabad Capital Territory is needed. Given that the ICT is among the (ICT) is significantly stronger in attracting most advanced education systems and teachers than Balochistan or Sindh (see one of the smaller ones, it is not necessarily Figure 5.5). A key factor impacting teacher representative of the entire country. effectiveness, and therefore the allocation However, the provincewide data show that of resources, is the observed lack of ICT is not actually scoring much higher than practice in the classroom. In ICT, a mere the other provinces (except in attracting 18% of teachers have had in-classroom teachers), reinforcing the fact that greater practice, and from within this group, attention is needed for teacher policies and only 28% had undergone any in-service their implementation. Figure 5.5. Score for teachers’ policies, by region 05 SYSTEM MANAGEMENT Source: Authors’ calculations based on Global Education Policy Dashboard 2023. Note: The evaluation of policies in the Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) reveals that the selection and deployment aspects receive a satisfactory rating of 4.1 out of 5.0. However, there is room for substantial enhancement in teacher support and monitoring, both of which scored only 2.7 and 2.3 out of 5.0, respectively. 96 Another aspect to consider when are expected to have complete mastery assessing teacher effectiveness is their of the content they are teaching. Data content knowledge. Teacher content from the ICT confirm that teacher content knowledge levels tend to be only slightly knowledge is low; only 4.9% of teachers are higher than their students for any gender proficient in their teaching content. The low and in all subjects (Figure 5.6). For teachers levels of content knowledge of teachers to adequately teach the content and help underscore the challenges of improving students develop necessary skills, they teacher effectiveness. Figure 5.6. Contentthknowledge of teachers is low 4 Grade English Test Score by Category & Gender (Country Level) Student & Teacher Scores in % (a) English score English % Reader−Text Connection Perform Task Literacy Experience Male Teacher Information Female General Understanding Developing Interpretation Examine Context & Structure English % Reader−Text Connection Perform Task Literacy Experience Male Student Female Information General Understanding Developing Interpretation Examine Context & Structure 0 20 40 60 80 100 th Percent 4 Grade Science? Test Score by Category & Gender (Country Level) 05 SYSTEM MANAGEMENT Student & Teacher Scores in % (b) Science score Science Total % Scientific Invention Physical Sciences Male Practical Reasoning Teacher Female Life Sciences Earth Sciences Conceptual Understanding Science Total % Scientific Invention Physical Sciences Practical Reasoning Student Male Female Life Sciences Earth Sciences Conceptual Understanding 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percent Source: National Assessment Test 2019. Note: National Assessment Test (NAT) employs the same assessment tool for both teachers and students. Teachers exhibit comparable levels of content knowledge to their students, which sheds light on the challenges they face in fully comprehending the subjects they teach. This trend holds true across all genders and subjects, with teacher knowledge closely mirroring that of their students, albeit slightly higher. In the context of English scores, teachers score around 60% to 65%, while students score 45% to 55%. A similar pattern emerges for science scores, with the gap between teachers and students being even narrower. 97 Teachers’ salary is also a factor to consider in improving teachers’ effectiveness. Multigrade teaching and On average, public school teachers earn classrooms slightly more than any other category.7 By education level, for instance, in Sindh, In Pakistan, despite not being recognized primary school teachers earn about officially as a pedagogical approach, 0.8 times the average salary, whereas multigrade teaching, where two or secondary school subject-specialist more grades are taught within a single teachers earn 1.8 times the average salary. classroom, is prevalent in many public In Punjab, teachers in rural schools earn less schools. Schools adopt multigrade than their counterparts in urban schools. classrooms in response to low enrollment Teachers in Balochistan earn 9.2 times per in certain grades, teacher attrition, and/or capita income (as of 2015), while teachers limited availability of classrooms.10 While in Punjab earn 5.5 times per capita income. often necessary, it is not acknowledged Importantly, private school teachers earn as an official pedagogical practice. During between one-eighth and one-half of what preservice training, teachers are not given public school teachers earn.8 the pedagogical training and practice needed to effectively prepare multigrade “The study also highlights the lessons and assessments, nor manage misalignment that exists between multigrade classrooms. During in-service teacher pay (finance) and incentives to training, teachers learn how to teach in teach (motivation). Government teachers monograde curricular standards, but in are highly paid, with the stated goal actuality, in their classrooms, they operate of attracting talent, but there are few in multigrade situations for which they do intrinsic or extrinsic motivators to teach not have the adequate tools. Unplanned well. The study concludes that high for multigrade classrooms result in poor salaries have done little to motivate working conditions for teachers and lower teachers in the absence of concomitant learning outcomes among students.11 changes to school culture and teacher career ladders.” Given the unofficial nature of multigrade 05 SYSTEM MANAGEMENT –RISE Diagnostic Tool, Balochistan 2022 classrooms, the education system does not consistently report on its existence. This quote highlights the need to think However, an estimate of multigrade about the teaching profession and prevalence can be calculated from available management holistically, including all data by quantifying the percentage of aspects of selection, support, assessment, schools where grade 2 students were and incentives, among others. Only reported to be sharing classrooms with providing better salaries is not enough students from other grades.12 Data from to motivate and support teachers.9 2011 shows multigrade classrooms in Policies should help get teachers’ intrinsic 44% of all public schools in Pakistan, with motivation at play (their internal drive Sindh showing up to 65% of schools with for satisfaction, or interest it brings), and multigrade classrooms (Figure 5.7). Data also provide extrinsic motivation (salaries, from 2022 estimates multigrade prevalence promotions, accountability, support). in rural and urban settings at 40%.13 98 Figure 5.7. Multigrade classrooms: Grade Chile, Guatemala, and Viet Nam, among 2 students sitting with other grades, 2011 other countries.14 While each country ‘Multigrade:’ Grade 2 Students Sitting with other Grades (% Schools), 2011 has adapted EN to fit the districts within 100% which it is being implemented, they share several characteristics: (1) teachers 90% receive adequate training to teach in 80% multigrade environments; (2) teachers and students are given instructional 70% 65.4% materials and textbooks designed for 60% classrooms in which the teacher does not teach all students and grades at the % Schools 48.5% 50% 44.4% same time; (3) students are seen as active 40% 36.8% 39.0% participants in the learning process, and encouraged to work independently and 30% creatively toward specified learning goals; 20% and (4) multigrade teachers are provided opportunities for professional interaction 10% with colleagues in other schools. Viet Nam 0% successfully expanded EN to all districts, Punjab KP Sindh Balochistan National using a cascade approach to efficiently and Source: ASER Pakistan 2011. cost-effectively train teachers to facilitate Note: Multigrade classrooms are measured using multigrade learning.15 the percentage of grade 2 students that are sharing classrooms with students from other grades. Data reveal that 44.4% of public schools nationally have multigrade classrooms. Disaggregated by province, Sindh has the largest percentage of public schools with multigrade Children’s school readiness learning. Are children in Pakistan adequately In Pakistan, teachers lack institutional prepared for learning when they begin and system-level support needed to attending school? In parallel with a robust effectively facilitate multigrade learning. 05 SYSTEM MANAGEMENT supply of educational services to run an Policy makers’ failure to effectively plan for efficient education system, it is essential many public schools’ multigrade realities that children are prepared for learning. This by, among other things, offering teachers readiness, known as “school readiness,” is a the preservice and in-service training to key driver of learning outcomes. effectively teach, manage, and assess students in multigrade classrooms makes A key indicator of school readiness is this necessary situation less successful than the enrollment rate in early childhood it might be. Improvements will only happen education (ECE). Ample evidence indicates if policy makers recognize true multigrade that, especially among children from the education as a viable and official means to lowest socioeconomic levels, quality ECE organize and manage service delivery in programs are key to school readiness some parts of the country. because they can support young children in developing the early social and preliteracy Escuela Nueva (EN) offers several lessons and prenumeracy skills needed to succeed in creating the conditions for teachers in primary school and beyond. Data from and students to optimize multigrade the national phone survey conducted in learning environments. The earliest 2021–2022 in Pakistan shows that more than 1 multigrade reform in Latin America, in 2 parents failed to provide engagement EN, was piloted in Colombia in 1975. It that promotes their child’s psychosocial has since been successfully adopted in development at home.16 99 Whether based in schools or homes, early childhood education (ECE) is an important Language of instruction tool to enhance education equity. Data indicate that investments made early in a Children learn more and are more likely child’s life cycle are the most cost-effective to remain in school if they are first taught and yield the greatest returns in human in a language they speak and understand. capital and well-being over the course In many countries such as Pakistan children of his/her life.17 Data from a citizen-led are required to learn in a language different household survey conducted in Pakistan from their mother tongue, putting children, in 2021 reveal that ECE enrollment stood especially the poorest, at a significant at only 38% for children ages 3 to 5 in disadvantage throughout their schooling. rural areas and 47% in urban areas, with When the instruction language is not the an 8% dropout rate.18 Among the four children’s first language, it takes them provinces, Sindh and Balochistan reported longer to acquire foundational skills. This is the lowest enrollment rates, at 30%. The a reason why many countries have very low survey also painted a sobering picture of learning levels. school readiness based on preliteracy and In Pakistan, the main languages of prenumeracy indicators. Results show that instruction are usually English and Urdu. in rural areas of Balochistan and Sindh, However, most children probably do 76% and 63% of children, respectively, not understand those languages in early scored lowest in school readiness, grades as they are not exposed to them compared to 56% and 57% in KP and regularly at home. It is not effective to use Punjab, respectively.19 Therefore, enhancing Urdu and English as the main languages of school readiness as children enter primary instruction to teach children early literacy school is an immediate challenge that, skills when few children are familiar with if addressed, could make investments these languages (Table 5.2).20 In Balochistan, in primary education more effective most people speak Balochi and Pashto at and efficient. Since big investments in home; in KP the main language is Pashto; ECE might be prohibitively expensive in Sindh, they speak Sindhi and Urdu; in the current economic environment, 05 SYSTEM MANAGEMENT and in Punjab, the main languages are home-based parenting interventions Punjabi, Saraiki, and Urdu. It would be more could be an alternative to help parents effective and efficient for local languages support their children develop preliteracy to be used in schools, especially in ECE. and prenumeracy skills, as well as Pakistani scholars have called for policy socioemotional and motor skills. practices for language instruction that are carefully planned and informed by local conditions and requirements for better implementation.21 100 Table 5.2. Language used at home, by province (% of households) Province Urdu Punjabi Pashto Sindhi Saraiki Balochi Hindko Other Balochistan 3.8 1.4 29.1 12.5 3.7 37.1 0.9 11.5 KP 5.6 4.9 70.1 0.3 6.0 0.1 8.6 4.3 Punjab 14.2 57.9 1.9 0.6 22.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 Sindh 32.8 7.0 3.5 43.2 7.2 3.4 0.5 2.6 Pakistan 16.5 33.0 15.3 10.8 14.6 3.4 2.7 3.7 Source: Authors’ calculations based on a phone survey of 4,000 families with children of school age, 2023. Note: The 2017 Census of Pakistan calculated similar statistics that are well captured by a phone survey. Some principles for language of The Citizens Foundation, the largest instruction could help accelerate language provider of private schooling for the poor acquisition22: (1) teach children in their in Pakistan, has developed and used first language through at least the first with great success, a similar approach to six years of primary schooling; (2) use a introduce Urdu and English, starting from student’s first language for instruction in Sindhi (and similar languages) for children academic subjects beyond reading and who usually speak Sindhi at home. 23 writing; (3) if students are to learn a second During the Single National Curriculum language in primary school, introduce it discussions, the importance of mother as a foreign language with an initial focus tongue as an entry point to Urdu and on oral language skills; (4) continue first- English was emphasized. 05 SYSTEM MANAGEMENT language instruction even after a second Developing and implementing new language becomes the principal language policies on language of instruction will of instruction; and (5) continuously accelerate the acquisition of reading and plan, develop, adapt, and improve the writing skills for children and improve implementation of the language of the efficiency of existing resources in instruction policies in line with country the system. Local experiences with first- contexts and educational goals. language instruction exist, and there is a policy framework in place to better prepare and transition children from their local language(s) into second-language instruction in Urdu or English. 101 RECOMMENDATIONS MANAGEMENT & COORDINATION Enhanced sector support and becoming victims of political patronage. Additionally, overcrowded, management and understaffed schools and those in low- coordination could density areas resort to poorly executed multigrade teaching methods, and improve services and budgets are not tailored to bolster system the efficiency of public improvements. To address these issues, Pakistan must prioritize improving the sector spending. management and execution of policies After a decade of devolution to the related to significant budget portions provinces, it is important to understand that impact many children. This can how the education system has evolved. be achieved by reevaluating teacher Several issues have become apparent. management policies, refining multigrade Inefficient teacher distribution and teaching approaches, building the deployment, poorly implemented de facto capacity of district and provincial officials multigrade teaching in many schools, lack for planning and quality assurance, and of targeted budgetary allocations, and fostering better coordination among duplication of efforts at both provincial education departments, literacy units, and federal levels result in low levels of education foundations, and legacy investment efficacy, and failure to provide federal departments from the pre-18th Amendment of the Constitution, while 05 SYSTEM MANAGEMENT high-quality services for children and their families. Often, teachers, districts, ensuring streamlined implementation. and government departments lack the While Pakistan possesses considerable capacity, authority, and incentives to experience in education reform, there align their actions toward a system that is room to deepen coordination among ensures quality education. This situation provinces for rapid, scalable solutions often results in teachers continuously and knowledge sharing to tackle these seeking transfers, often without adequate challenges. 102 Better management of the system will ensure teachers are more effectively supported to increase education outcomes, increasing the efficiency of the entire education system. 05 SYSTEM MANAGEMENT SECTION NOTES 1 The Economist (2018). 13 ASER Pakistan (2022b). 2 Kakar, Saleem, and Sarwar (2022). 14 Colvert et al. (1993); Craig, Kraft, and Du Plessis (1998); 3 Gershberg and Spindelman (2023); Ross-Larson, Reimers (2000); World Bank (2019b). Caponio, and Crumplar (2022). 15 World Bank (2019b). 4 Center of Gender and Policy Studies (2022). 16 Hentschel et al. (2023). 5 Government of Pakistan (2018). 17 Melhuish (2014). 6 PBS (2020). 18 ASER Pakistan (2022b). 7 Béteille et al. (2020). 19 ASER Pakistan (2022a). 8 Ibid. 20 PBS (2017b). 9 Béteille and Evans (2021); World Bank (2013). 21 Ashraf, Turner, and Laar (2021) 10 ISAPS (2019). 22 World Bank (2021). 11 Little (2004); Government of Balochistan (2022). 23 Naviwala (2019). 12 Mansoor (2011). 103 06 PARENTS & CIVIL SOCIETY Families in Pakistan bear the brunt of educational expenditure in the country. Private expenditures comprise over 50% of total educational expenses, which include both public and private outlays in the country (Figure 6.1). This contrasts with other countries in the attention and accountability away from South Asian region, such as India and Sri necessary improvements in public schools. Lanka, where the corresponding figures Economic pressure in families can also are 40% and 45%, respectively. Under exacerbate gender disparities in education. significant economic pressure, some When faced with limited resources for families discontinue or refrain from sending education, families may choose to prioritize their children to school. This situation gives boys over girls for schooling, due to the rise to inequality, as higher-income families inability to afford education for both. can invest more in education compared to their lower-income counterparts, diverting 104 KEY MESSAGE PARENTS & CIVIL SOCIET Y Empower parents and regions of Pakistan, the private sector has emerged as a dominant provider of civil society with voice, education (See Box 3 on page 22). The support, and participatory absence of formal platforms that promote active participation, accountability, and mechanisms. collaboration with various governmental Parents have an intrinsic motivation to tiers creates a disconnect between the support their children’s education. By education system and the communities actively involving them and recognizing it serves. Such disconnection precipitates their voice, this can act as a shield against a lack of accountability, susceptibility to inefficient and misguided decisions political influences, resource misallocation, in the education system. However, and erosion of the social contract. To the current level of engagement of rectify this, it is essential to engage and parents and community stakeholders empower parents, teachers, and civil in Pakistan’s budgetary decisions often society organizations, ensuring that the falls short of expectations. Parents’ education system resonates more with concerns remain underrepresented local values and needs. By introducing despite their sacrifices, which include open platforms for parents and other paying high out-of-pocket expenses for stakeholders to actively participate, such as school-related costs such as uniforms, in the formation of participatory budgets materials, lunches, transportation, and and other accountability mechanisms, and tuition for private schools (where they building their capacity, Pakistan can foster a believe a better quality of education is more transparent discussion on budgetary offered). It is worth noting that, in many priorities, allocations, and implementation. Parents of school-age children 06 PARENTS AND CIVIL SOCIETY consistently ranked education as one of the main issues facing the country, but only 2 out of 10 parents are highly satisfied with the state of education in Pakistan, according to the phone survey carried out for this report. 105 Figure 6.1. Pakistani families’ spending on education, compared to other countries of South Asia and the world average World average Bhutan Maldives India Sri Lanka Nepal Pakistan Bangladesh Source: GEMR 2021. Public Private Note: Private expenditures comprise over 50% of total educational expenses. In India and Sri Lanka, the corresponding figures are 40 and 45%. Parents can also have a transformative that will impact their children. Education role in the education of their children systems can benefit from considering beyond heavily investing in their parents’ views in policy discussions and education. They can have a profound providing platforms for their participation 06 PARENTS AND CIVIL SOCIETY impact on their children’s academic and influence. success, by actively supporting their To consider parents’ views, this report children’s education at home and selecting draws upon a nationally representative the school their children will attend. Parents phone survey of parents of school-age can serve as advocates, ensuring that the children. This phone survey was conducted education system remains responsive to in March 2023, and 5,249 families with their children’s needs. They can influence children ages 5 to 17 were interviewed. the allocation of resources, pushing for Overall, among the households that adequate funding for well-equipped participated in the survey, 95.5% of the classrooms and quality teaching materials. children were currently enrolled in school; They can actively engage with schools, with slightly more boys (95.5%) enrolled teachers, and administrators to create than girls (93.5%). The survey results have supportive environments for their children. been adjusted for parents with lower They can also participate in decision- incomes, who generally do not own a making discussions, such as in school mobile phone, offering an imperfect but management committees and advocacy still very important snapshot of parents’ groups, to influence education policy views on education. 106 According to the survey, parents ranked Parents generally believed that schools education and health as among the top have the necessary resources to provide issues of concern in Pakistan. The survey children with an adequate education shows parents’ ranking of the top three but emphasized the need for increased most important issues facing the country teacher support and better infrastructure. today (from left to right column). When Approximately 68% of respondents asked to identify the top three issues, indicated that they either strongly agree parents consistently ranked education or agree that schools and teachers have and health behind inflation and poverty. the necessary resources to deliver a good Among the respondents, 6% considered education, irrespective of the child’s gender. education to be the top concern, while 51% However, parents identified the following ranked inflation as the biggest problem. areas as needing improvement to ensure When asked to rate their satisfaction with quality teaching: teacher training in content the state of education in Pakistan today knowledge and pedagogical approaches on a scale of 1 to 10, only 20% of parents (60%), and school facilities (22%) (Figure 6.2). responded that they were completely satisfied with their children’s education. Figure 6.2. Additional resources that schools What need additional to improve resources education are required for schools/teachers to provide adequate education? More teachers 13% Improved facilities 22% New books, student resources 13% Improved/Di erent curriculum 11% Teacher training − Content knowledge 32% Teacher training − Teach pedagogy 28% 06 PARENTS AND CIVIL SOCIETY Teacher training unspecified 13% Source: Authors’ calculation based on a phone survey. Note: Respondents were asked, “What additional resources are required for schools/teachers to provide adequate education?”, and they were allowed to list as many options as they liked. Enumerators then categorized the responses. Most of the responses considered enhancing teacher training in content knowledge and pedagogy as an important additional resource (60%) that schools needed to improve education. 107 Parents placed a high priority on their completion as extremely important (Figure children’s educational attainment. When 6.3b). Parents expressed similar views asked how important completing primary regarding the importance of completing or secondary schooling is for their child’s tertiary (university) education. However, future, approximately 75% of parents the data (not shown) indicated that parents said it is extremely or very important. in urban areas (75%), compared to rural At each education level, over 50% of areas, are more likely to consider tertiary the respondents ranked completion as education important for their children’s extremely important (Figure 6.3). While future. Regardless of whether parents had urban and rural households largely agreed the economic capacity to support their that primary attainment is a high priority child to attain higher levels of education, for their child’s future, parents in urban they viewed education as a pathway to a areas were 10 percentage points more likely better future for their child. than rural parents to view upper secondary Figure 6.3. Parental views on the importance of primary and secondary education, by area Importance of completing primary education Importance of completing High Secondary education primary (a) Importance of for education childs future By Rural/Urban forsecondary (b) Importance of childs future education By Rural/Urban 56.60 59.07 Extremely important Extremely important 51.16 49.38 24.32 22.30 Very important Very important 23.73 22.82 14.20 Urban 13.93 Urban Important Important 21.73 Rural 21.16 Rural 3.25 3.54 Somewhat important Somewhat important 2.00 4.25 1.63 1.16 Not at all important Not at all important 1.39 2.39 Source: Authors’ calculation based on a phone survey. Note: Respondents were asked the following two questions: “In your opinion, how important for [child name]’s future is it that [child gender – he/she] completes higher secondary school education (through grade 12)?”; and “In your opinion, how important for [child name]’s future is it that [child gender – he/she] completes higher secondary school education (through grade 12)?”. Response options were as follows: not at all important, somewhat important, important, very important, or extremely important. 06 PARENTS AND CIVIL SOCIETY Approximately 75% parents in both rural and urban areas agreed that primary and secondary education are extremely important and very important for their child. More urban area parents than rural area parents emphasized this importance of education. Parents expressed a strong view for both education level. The maximum discrepancy their boys and girls to complete school. observed a difference of 6 percentage Across all education levels, the importance points at the primary education level. A parents placed on their child’s education similar preference was seen at the higher appears to be largely independent of education level, with parents placing the child’s gender. More than 50% of slightly more importance on their boys parents reported that educating both rather than their girls. This difference may boys and girls is extremely important. have resulted from factors other than However, a slightly larger proportion gender. Factors such as security, safe of parents viewed boys’ education as transportation, costs, and distance to extremely important compared to girls’ school can drive a wedge between parents’ education, with differences varying by expressed views and their actions. 108 Mothers with less education, particularly education as either extremely important or those who did not complete primary very important for their child’s future. These education, expressed a strong desire for views seem more prevalent among less their girls to complete school. Almost 50% educated mothers whose children attend of mothers who responded to the survey public schools. Among these mothers, said it was extremely important for their 57% viewed it as extremely important for daughters to complete primary education, their daughters to finish primary education, in contrast to only 28% who said the same compared to only 27% for their sons. Similar for their sons (Figure 6.4). These responses trends continued at secondary and higher were similar to the responses of mothers education levels. Among less educated who had completed primary education. mothers whose children attended public When it comes to secondary school, schools, 50% deemed the completion of mothers with less education assigned more secondary school for their daughters as importance to the completion of school extremely important, compared to just 38% of their daughters than their sons, with for their sons. 78% versus 64% of these mothers viewing Importance of completing primary education for childs future Mother with Primary Educ vs. those that did not complete primary By Child Gender Figure 6.4. Parental views on the importance of primary education, by mother’s education level and child’s gender Extremely important 27.91 Very important 46.15 47.93 48.37 Important Somewhat important 32.56 Not at all important 28.85 29.49 30.98 06 PARENTS AND CIVIL SOCIETY 23.26 17.31 17.97 16.85 13.95 3.85 2.33 3.85 4.15 3.80 0.46 Boy Girl Boy Girl Below primary Completed primary Mother’s education Source: Authors’ calculation based on the national phone survey. Note: Respondents were asked, “How important they felt it was for their son or daughter to complete primary education?” Response options were as follows: not at all important, somewhat important, important, very important, or extremely important. Mothers with less than primary education expressed a strong desire for their girls to complete primary education. Approximately 75% of mothers wanted their girls to complete primary education while 50% of mothers said they wanted their boys to complete it. Mothers who had completed primary school indicated that they wanted both their sons and daughters to complete their primary education. 109 Families placed great emphasis on that close proximity of a school that would education quality. A hypothetical scenario likely result in better school attendance is was posed in the survey, asking parents to not sufficient for a quality education for consider their willingness to face trade- their child. This sentiment was relatively offs to provide better education to their consistent across responses from different children. The survey asked parents to family members, despite minor variations. choose between two schools: School Household data confirmed the results of A, which is closer to home (a 10-minute this hypothetical scenario, highlighting the commute) but of low quality (only 50% importance of quality in school selection. of children know how to read), or School For parents who sent their children to B, which is farther away (a 20-minute school, whether public or private, good commute) but of significantly higher quality teaching consistently ranked at the top of (70% of children know how to read). When their decision-making criteria (Figure 6.5). presented with this choice, a significant This preference was especially pronounced majority of parents prioritized educational among parents who opt for private quality over proximity. Among respondents, schooling, with 90% citing good teaching as 74% of parents preferred to send their child a key factor in their choice. In comparison, on a longer commute to a school of higher only about 40% of parents who sent their quality. This finding is especially relevant children to public school emphasized considering one of the main constraints to good teaching as a priority. Notably, the education in Pakistan is the safety of school importance of good teaching varied by commutes and, in many instances, the gender of the child, a subject that will be distance to school, particularly in rural areas further explored later in the report. (Figure 6.5).1 The data suggest that, given the right conditions, parents will prioritize higher-quality schools; they understand Figure 6.5. Good Good teaching teaching is important was a more for parents’ important preference decisions in public about schools their children’s enrolment for boys education While girls enrolment preference was higher if school is cheaper and nearer to home (% of parents) Boy Girl Private Good te chin Public 06 PARENTS AND CIVIL SOCIETY Private Che per Public Private Ne r to home Public Private Fem le te chers Public Private M le te chers Public Private Good te chin beh vior Public Private Good school environment Public Private No other school Public Private Other Public 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percentage % Source: Authors’ calculation based on HIES 2018/19. Source: PSLM/HIES Note: Respondents were 2018/19 asked, “Why did enroll in this school/institution?”. Parents indicated good teaching as a top priority, especially among parents who selected private schools (90%), compared to public school parents (40%). The importance parents placed on good teaching varied according to their child’s gender. The difference between boys and girls is similar for those opting for private schools while for public schools, the gap increases in favor of boys. 110 While parents valued learning, many read and understand an age-appropriate found themselves unable to support their paragraph. In the survey sample, nearly children’s learning at home. Literacy is a 20% of mothers and 25% of fathers had not crucial objective for any education system, completed primary school. Under 33% of forming the basis for effective lifelong parents with children under the age of eight learning and the development of human reported spending at least 15 minutes daily capital. However, in Pakistan, around 42% reading aloud to their children. Over 14% of of adults (those ages 15 and older) are households responded that they did not illiterate,2 and 75% to 79% of 10-year-olds own any children’s print books, while the are in a state of “learning poverty,”3 which largest portion, 42%, owned between one means that by age 10, a child is unable to and nine books. Figure 6.6. Would parents send their children to a further away school if it provides Send to school 10 mins away with 50% students proficient better education? or relation (by in reading the70% towith 20 mins away child) proficiency Percentage by respondent relation 33.65% Mother 66.35% School B (longer commute, higher reading proficiency) 24.65% Father 75.35% 24.88% Elder brother 75.12% 18.42% Elder sister 81.58% 17.57% Other 82.43% Source: Authors’ calculation based on the national phone survey. Note: Respondents were asked, “Imagine you are choosing between two new schools for [child name], School A and School B, which cost the same. School A is a 10-minute commute with 50% of students proficient at reading. School B is a 20-minute commute with 70% of students proficient at reading. Which school would you choose for [child name]?” 06 PARENTS AND CIVIL SOCIETY Response choices included one or the other, but not both, of the schools. Respondents included mothers, fathers, brothers, and sisters. Among the mothers who responded, 66% chose school B over school A, indicating that mothers are more likely than fathers to send their child to a better school regardless of the distance. The findings of a phone survey provided education, with many parents struggling an informative sample of parents’ to support their children’s home learning views for education policy and their due to systemic issues such as illiteracy children’s experience with its practice. and learning poverty. Findings provide The survey indicated that regardless of context for the broader systemic and their educational attainment, Pakistani societal challenges parents face in attaining parents highly valued their children’s a quality education for their children; there education, emphasizing quality schooling are direct and indirect costs of education, over proximity and acknowledging poverty, safety concerns, distance to education as a key to their children’s school schools, and gender norms that may hinder performance and their future. However, it parents’ ability to convert their positive also showed that parents faced hurdles in attitudes about education into tangible realizing their aspirations for their children’s educational opportunities for their children. 111 Parents’ satisfaction with schools play While this data represent a correlation, it is a significant role in student learning in crucial to recognize that satisfied parents Pakistan. This is exemplified in the 2019 are more likely to engage with the school, Trends in International Mathematics and seek out superior educational activities for Science Study (TIMSS) assessment in which their children, and contribute to improved Pakistan participated. Children whose learning environments. In essence, parental parents were highly satisfied with their involvement in and their perspectives schools scored 42 points higher in math on their children’s schooling matter; and 49 points higher in science, compared parents not only influence their children’s to children whose parents were only participation in school but also their somewhat satisfied or less (Figure 6.7). learning outcomes. Figure 6.7. Parents’ satisfaction with school matters for student learning (a) Achievement gap by parents’ satisfaction with (b) Achievement gap by parents’ satisfaction with the schools (math) the schools (science) Achievement gap (math) by parents' Achievement gap (science) by parents' satisfaction with the schools satisfaction with the schools 600 600 Tu rkey Kazakhastan 527 532 Tu rkey 522 524 513 Kazakhstan 512 501 500 500 494 447 443 Iran Iran 437 437 Science score Math score Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia 410 400 404 400 391 388 340 Pakistan Philippines 308 304 300 298 300 Pakistan 269 261 Philippines 255 215 200 200 06 PARENTS AND CIVIL SOCIETY Students whose parents are very satisfied with the school Students whose parents are very satisfied with the school Students whose parents are somewhat satisfied or less with the school Students whose parents are somewhat satisfied or less with the school Source: Authors’ calculation based on the 2019 TIMSS International Assessment. Note: In the 2019 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) assessment, Pakistani parents who were satisfied with their child’s school showed better educational outcomes versus those who were not. In mathematics, the children of satisfied parents scored 42 points higher in mathematics and 49 points higher in science. Given the significance of parental They can influence broader system-level involvement in their children’s education, aspects, including budget decisions of there exists an untapped potential for education departments, provincial budget them to contribute to improvements allocations for education. They can also in the education system more broadly. ensure social accountability in terms of The role of parents extends beyond mere allocation, execution, prioritization, and interactions with their children’s schools. targeting. 112 Bringing government and citizens together for better budgeting in education Considering the challenges in budgeting, developing contexts, citizens’ associations participation, and resource allocation, have been advocating for platforms for two methodologies could assist provincial increased public participation in budgeting decision-makers in aligning better with processes and decision-making. the aspirations of their constituents and (1) Brazil. Instituto Brasileiro de Análises their children: social accountability and Sociais e Económicas (Ibase) is a bud- participatory budgeting (PB) practices. get program with the aim to promote active citizenship. It was established in 1990 after the country’s return to Social accountability democracy, and its mission is to focus on building citizens’ capacity, analyzing Social accountability is an approach budget information, and using this in- that fosters accountability through civic formation to engage with central and engagement involving public and civil local governments. society organizations. In the context of the public sector, it involves various (2) Croatia. The Institute of Public Finance actions and mechanisms that citizens (IPF) is a publicly funded research or- and local groups can use to hold public ganization, transformed from a tax-fo- systems accountable regarding education cused organization to a regional and sector budgeting. These measures include international research network in public participatory budgeting, public expenditure finance. It maintains an academic focus tracking, monitoring public service delivery, but collaborates with policy makers and and citizen associations. These efforts media to widely disseminate budget complement internal mechanisms of and policy information. accountability already implemented in the (3) Dominican Republic. The Socio- public sector.4 Educational Forum (FSE) is a network of civil society organizations (CSOs) Implementing participatory approaches that have come together to put entail effective organization, social forward policy proposals pertaining dialogue, and strategic public to public expenditures in education. engagement. 5 Citizens and local groups 06 PARENTS AND CIVIL SOCIETY The FSE launched the Ministry of participate in decision-making processes Education Budget Monitoring Watch and advocate for policies in the public in 2010, and it continues to involve interest, whereby governments can civil society in ensuring fair public enhance participation and increase investment in education through this transparency over budgeting processes.6 tool. The tool enhances transparency To enhance participation, countries have by strengthening civil society’s role in also developed guides and enhanced the social audit processes and monitoring capacity of civil organizations to understand education plans and budgets.9 FSE the budgeting process to guarantee citizens’ has also mobilized public opinion to active participation.7 demand and achieve an increase of Budget transparency and social public investment in education from accountability tend to be weak in 2.3% to 4.0% of GDP. countries with high poverty levels, (4) India. The Development Initiatives increasing inequalities, and where there for Social and Human Action (DISHA) exist prevalent rent-seeking behavior or empowers marginalized communities political patronage. 8 However, in many through budget analysis to demand 113 resources and services from the state universities can help facilitate citizens’ government. It trains other Indian NGOs understanding and analysis of budget in budget work, inspiring budget groups proposals, execution, and decision-making in other states to improve government processes. accountability. (5) Mexico. The Center for Research and Analysis (FUNDAR) prioritizes budget Participatory budgeting analysis to promote social justice and practices human rights. It also monitors public funds in areas vulnerable to health risks. Participatory budgeting (PB) is a process (6) South Africa. The Budget Information that allows citizens to participate directly Service (BIS), as part of the Institute in deciding how public funds are allocated for Democracy in South Africa (IDASA), within a government.11 Through this type monitors the government’s transition of budgeting model, citizens and local toward inclusion and democracy groups are empowered to deliberate through applied budget work. It has and sometimes have discretion over the a strong reputation for fact-based allocation of public resources, whereas analysis in various budget areas, governments can curb inefficiencies supporting budget groups in Sub- while maintaining accountability and Saharan Africa through the Africa transparency. In 1988, it was used Budget Project. successfully in Brazil, and subsequently it has appeared to be a common practice in (7) Uganda. Uganda Debt Network multiple high- and low-income countries in (UDN), originally a debt relief Asia, North America, Latin America, Africa, campaign, has evolved into an and Europe.12 NGO conducting budget analysis, advocacy, and anti-corruption efforts PB has proven to be beneficial for in Uganda. conducting budget analysis, governments at various levels of advocacy, and anti-corruption efforts service delivery, fostering innovation in in Uganda. It effectively uses media to democracy as well as local development. disseminate findings, campaigns for Research suggests that PB can lead better governance, and coordinates to increased civic and community civil society groups to influence engagement, greater social capital, and government policies.10 improved educational outcomes for 06 PARENTS AND CIVIL SOCIETY learners while facilitating greater public Despite persistent challenges in capacity participation and local agendas.13 It building within civil society, Pakistan also reinforces inclusive governance as stands to gain from involving local it can help address power imbalances education groups in shaping public and promote social justice by providing expenditure policies. A structured politically marginalized and disadvantaged approach at district and provincial levels communities with a higher representation would enable local groups and CSOs in public decision-making.14 This results in to advocate for increased financing. equitable spending that focusing on areas Consistent cross-sectoral partnerships where gaps remain under conventional can mobilize stakeholders around ongoing budgeting procedures. PB allows budgetary processes, thus promoting social governments to respond to the needs of accountability and budgetary transparency. their citizens and enhance service delivery This can ensure efficient resource allocation efficiently and cost-effectively. in Pakistan’s public education sector across districts and provinces. Leveraging the strong technical expertise of Pakistani 114 Implementing PB practices in education insulation from legislative backlashes, requires strong leadership, effective and contribute financial resources that social dialogue, and sustained community help fund citizen-led education initiatives. engagement.15 PB in education involves At the same time, PB can help build a engaging stakeholders, such as students, new social contract between the state parents, teachers, community members, and its citizens, facilitating processes of and local education groups, in decision- decentralization.17 Engaging in participatory making around the allocation and provision budgeting heightens the local education of education budgets. In the case of Brazil, stakeholders’ perceptions of fairness in a municipality study of São Paulo suggests public decision-making. This further helps that the transfer of education resources promote transparency, inclusivity, and from the central to local government levels deliberative practices in local governance ensured that 25% of municipal resources and enhances the perceived legitimacy were reserved for primary education16 . The of public institutions. This model also overall investments in the education sector creates space for politically excluded also resulted in the provision of funds to communities and districts and serves the districts with the highest demand. as a defense against political patronage and undue political influence. Regulating There are different levels of PB practices: and supporting participatory budgeting Consultative. Governments, usually practices can bring public institutions to local, but also including government listen to their citizens and transform those departments, seek input or feedback from interactions into actionable budgets that the public about the budget. This might reflect all citizens.18 involve public meetings or surveys. While In Pakistan, initiatives such as those led the local government is not obliged to act by the Omar Asghar Khan Foundation on the public’s suggestions, it provides play a crucial role in involving citizens opportunities for the public’s voice to be in the budgeting process. These heard. initiatives empower citizens to engage Involved. Public engagement is included with government decision-making and in the decision-making process. This could understand the impacts of these decisions involve workshops or public forums where on their lives and those of marginalized citizens can discuss budget priorities and groups. The foundation works to build make recommendations. citizens’ capacity to understand how public funds are managed, fostering transparency 06 PARENTS AND CIVIL SOCIETY Collaborative. The public actively and accountability in government. collaborates with the local government or government department to create Expanding such initiatives and developing the budget. This might involve a series of similar ones focused specifically on meetings or workshops where citizens can education can have an impact on work with government officials to decide efficiency. They can help public officials budget priorities. better identify opportunities to improve the quality and access to education. Moreover, Empowered. The local government these initiatives can protect the education commits to implementing the budget sector from undue political influences priorities decided upon by the public. This by ensuring that budgetary decisions are often involves a formal process where made transparent and in the best interest citizens propose, discuss, and vote on of the community. budget priorities. PB requires public support from citizen groups and stakeholders who will actively engage in social dialogue, provide political 115 RECOMMENDATIONS PARENTS & CIVIL SOCIET Y Empower parents Budgetary process and civil society Analysis of budget proposals is an opportunity for collaboration among civil with voice, support, society, academia, and the public sector. and participatory Given that budgets tend to be lengthy and intricate, and considering that academics in mechanisms. Pakistan possess high technical expertise, they can assist in clarifying the goals, Testing and evaluation targets, and incentives behind budgetary Parents and civil society have a significant proposals, facilitating a more expansive role in the Pakistan education system. dialogue that could influence resource Their involvement must be deepened allocation effectively. These proposals can with the support of the public sector then be discussed with parent associations to foster system improvement through and other civil society groups. To maximize participatory mechanisms. These the benefits of this collaboration, platforms should not only bolster advocacy platforms fostering government and civil for parents and society but also grant society cooperation could be formally them greater influence over budgetary instituted. These might encompass decisions, turning advocacy into tangible citizen participatory budget processes at action. A foundational step is ensuring education departments and budgetary national diagnostic student assessments discussions at Local Education Group occur regularly. The dissemination of meetings. This approach would open these assessments should be paired with avenues for the public sector to receive actionable implementation plans. The feedback and innovative ideas before assessments can range from citizen-led finalizing budgets. After budgets receive 06 PARENTS AND CIVIL SOCIETY to official government evaluations, and approval, continued engagement with civil international assessments conducted society can ensure resources are executed every few years. Such routine checks can on time and can pave the way for potential measure the progress of the education collaboration with NGOs. Enhancing the system and help develop improvement capacity of communications and media to strategies that the public sector takes on. distill messaging on budgeting decisions They can serve as a channel to convey to for the average citizen can also help to parents the significance of their voice and empower families to be more engaged of their involvement with different levels with budgetary processes. of government and their children’s learning at home. 116 Parents and civil society can play a big role in improving Pakistan’s education system. They need more support to make a difference through their participation and engagement. SECTION NOTES 06 PARENTS AND CIVIL SOCIETY 1 Barón et al. (forthcoming). 9 CLADE (2012). 2 According to World Bank and UIS data, the literacy 10 De Renzio and Krafchik (2007). rate of the total adult population (% of people ages 15 11 Shah (2007); Wampler (2010). and above) in 2019 in Pakistan is 58%. 12 Huq (2022). 3 Ersado et al. (2023). 13 Santos, Batel, and Gonçalves (2019). 4 Forster, Malena, and Singh (2004). 14 Shah (2007). 5 Van de Walle and Nead (1995); Ginwright and Cammarota (2002). 15 Ginwright and Cammarota (2002). 6 Shah (2007); Wampler (2010). 16 Cabannes (2004). 7 OECD (2019). 17 UNDP (2022). 8 De Renzio and Krafchik (2007). 18 OECD (2019). 117 07 CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDATIONS Implementing the necessary policies to tackle the efficiency and effectiveness challenges of Pakistan’s education system is a complex task. At the end of each chapter, this report has highlighted areas of potential work to enhance education investments. Taken together these sets of recommendations complement others that can be important for specific provincial governments. There are no easy solutions to fix the system’s many deficiencies. The situation has been further complicated by emergencies, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 floods, and the current political climate, that have hindered economic opportunities to enact and implement vital education reforms. Facing large fiscal deficits, high inflation, and a pressing need to stabilize the economy, Pakistan finds itself in a precarious position. Within this context, the chance of substantial investments to increase finding budgetary support, focused access to education. While these attention, and political momentum for a recommendations may require significant comprehensive overhaul of the education resources upfront, they are targeted at system seems slim. Nonetheless, the sustainably resolving critical inefficiencies urgency to address these issues remains within the system. As such, their results are and is underscored by the erosion of enduring and will pay substantial dividends human capital caused by the COVID-19 year after year. By tackling the fundamental pandemic 1 and the 2022 floods, 2 and issues, the proposed reforms promise not compounded by already low learning only to rectify existing inefficiencies but levels prior to these crises. Despite these to lay the groundwork for a continuous significant challenges, Pakistan cannot program of improvement and expansion. afford to fall further behind in building the A successful reform agenda necessarily human capital needed to drive economic involves multiple levels of government, growth. with each reform potentially yielding Developing and implementing a numerous benefits for the education comprehensive reform agenda would system. The recommendations within help enhance Pakistan’s efficiency in the proposed agenda call for action at all public expenditure and improve children’s tiers of government: national, provincial, educational outcomes. The suggested and district. While the education systems reforms in this section are diverse, across provinces vary in maturity, many reflecting different cost structures and of them face similar challenges—albeit tailored approaches. Most of the proposed to varying degrees—stemming from actions draw upon proven initiatives within their shared origins prior to the 18th Pakistan, capitalizing on evidence of their Amendment. Many of the reforms impact. However, some recommendations suggested in this section can offer multiple present a bolder approach, needing benefits to the education system. Prioritizing policy recommendations This report proposes a method of Alongside these considerations are three prioritizing policy recommendations specific constraints3 that may influence based on five factors, with two policy implementation. These include: considerations and three constraints. (3) The fiscal costs associated with the Given the urgency of the system to pivot reforms toward a different path that delivers for 07 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS children, and the need of the system to (4) The complexity of executing reforms increase the efficiency of expenditures within the unique context of Pakistan in education, the two considerations are (5) The level of political buy-in required to relevant: carry them out (1) Whether the reform can start The policy recommendations have been in the short term accessed and prioritized as low, moderate, (2) What potential efficiency gains can be or high. achieved in the medium term 119 The challenging economic outlook in Pakistan is marked by record debt, high Factors for prioritizing policy interest rates, and high inflation, casting recommendations a shadow over the country’s medium- 01 term economic growth. 4 These economic Assessing whether an action pressures are further exacerbated by the can be initiated in the short ongoing recovery from the COVID-19 term. Starting the discussion to formally pandemic and the 2022 floods. Despite incorporate multigrade teaching as a these obstacles, Pakistan’s path to inclusive pedagogical approach to improving teacher and sustained long-term growth lies in effectiveness can begin in the short term, a strategic investment in human capital. as can improving data integration, to both Such investment is not merely a social better use and enhance transparency of responsibility; it is an economic imperative. existing data. In contrast, working toward By focusing on education, Pakistan can lay incorporating checks and balances as part the foundation for increased productivity, of the 8th NFC Award would certainly higher tax revenue, reduced social require a more strategic and focused assistance costs, and diminished inequality approach, and it would take more time to in a country that is becoming more and get started. more urbanized. The long-term dividends of these investments are a promising vision for the nation’s future and a call to action 02 Evaluating the efficiency of the proposed actions in the medium term. This would include considering their for today’s policy makers. Pakistan will not achieve middle-income country status potential to optimize the use of funds in without increased investment in human the medium term. Most of the proposals capital development. 5 in Table 10.1 are aimed at enhancing efficiency. For instance, the impact on the The reform agenda recommended in sector’s efficiency over the medium term this report draws from existing evidence, has been assessed as substantial for high- implementation knowledge, findings efficiency actions such as developing the within this report, and global insights to teaching career, beginning with teachers’ classify each intervention (Table 10.1). 6 If deployment and transfer policies, and implementing a comprehensive menu of almost all actions concerning access policies to enhance the effectiveness of and learning, such as enhancing public- public expenditure is out of reach, Pakistan private partnerships (PPPs) or defining could prioritize those that can start soon and implementing a concrete policy on and deliver the most efficiency gains. This mother-tongue education in early grades. approach would use a similar amount of In contrast, a lower efficiency score funding as currently budgeted. has been given to the formalization of coordination mechanisms, such as the Inter 07 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS Provincial Education Ministers Conference (IPEMC), and the creation of platforms for improved collaboration among education foundations, education departments, and literacy departments, although these are likely to help efficiency in the long term. 03 Categorizing potential fiscal costs. This approach was taken due to the lack of detailed financial information at the program level (except for the data presented in this report). For instance, low-cost examples such as parenting 120 communication campaigns, nudges, and for the development of new infrastructure other communication strategies, all of are organized into three levels: low which focused on concrete messaging complexity (●○○), medium complexity about the benefits, costs, and quality of (●●○), and high complexity (●●●). 05 education, are not only fiscally economical Assessing political buy-in. This but also highly effective, according to local considers whether civil society and international research.7 In contrast, understands that the reform will improve initiatives aimed at expanding access outcomes or should be a priority (and to education, such as providing more hence are less likely to oppose it); what PPPs, increasing ECE opportunities, or vested interests stand to lose from reform coordinating infrastructure development implementation; and if the reform requires with BISP, inevitably entail higher fiscal a high degree of political consensus or costs. Some of these costs can be absorbed political appetite, to advance and be through efficiency savings from other successful. Teacher career reform, or even reforms in the proposed reform agenda or teacher deployment and transfer policies, by diligent execution of the development would require the consensus of multiple budget, reduced duplication of activities stakeholders and would impact vested across various departments, or efficiency interests in the systems. These reforms savings from other reforms in the proposed require a high level of political commitment reform agenda. Potential fiscal costs are for its implementation, despite being organized into three levels: low (●○○), highly impactful on efficiency and only medium (●●○), and high (●●●). moderately expensive and complex. The 04 Developing new infrastructure, some of which may be complex to execute. This includes the physical assessments of buy-in are categorized into three levels: low (●○○), medium (●●○), and high (●●●). construction or creation of previously nonexistent soft infrastructure and coordination between provincial or federal The reform agenda authorities. When evaluated through these lenses, many actions are not overly Many of these reform agenda actions can complex, partly due to the reform agenda’s increase the efficiency of public sector focus on building upon existing programs spending on education, and involve better and leveraging the experience and capacity information and policy decision-making, the public sector already possesses. For such as improved coordination, teacher example, making the budget process more management, and a more transparent open to stakeholders and using data for budgeting process that includes external better targeting in education budgeting stakeholders. Only actions that aim to decisions are not inherently complex enhance access, such as those that improve 07 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS activities. Enhancing PPPs would not the quality of resources, will require require massive capacity building, given substantial fiscal investment; many others Pakistan’s experience with PPPs. However, will not require such funding. These other implementing other activities, such as initiatives can be achieved by executing foundational learning activities and mother- almost 9% of the budget that often goes tongue teaching, may be more complex to unspent (mainly from the development execute because they would require the side). For example, recognizing multigrade creation of new platforms of collaboration teaching as a system reality, formalizing it with private and public stakeholders, in education policy, and providing support systems, and deep technical work. They materials and training for teachers would would also require new learning materials require a moderate investment but could and appropriate teacher training and exponentially enhance system efficiency. support. The execution levels of complexity 121 Table 10.1. Policy reform agenda Constraints Efficiency Execution Political Unviability Short term impact Fiscal cost complexity buy-in Index* POLICY (0 – 1) (1 – 3) (1 – 3) (1 – 3) (1 – 3) (3 – 9) Key Message 1. Adequacy: Pakistan needs to spend more on education Enhance PPPs and strengthen regulation ● ●●● ●●○ ●○○ ●○○ 4 Optimize infrastructure use, including double shifts ● ●●● ●○○ ●○○ ●●○ 4 Access Expand BISP and enhanced targeting and coordination with education foundations for data-driven expansion ● ●●● ●●○ ●○○ ●●● 6 Expand quality ECE (long-term) based on a sustainable strategy ○ ●●● ●●● ●●● ●●● 9 Key Message 2. Efficiency: Pakistan needs to spend better on education Develop teachers’ career—management of teachers ○ ●●● ●●○ ●●○ ●●● 7 Teachers Define school leadership roles at school and district level ● ●●○ ●○○ ●●○ ●○○ 4 Introduce multigrade formally (teacher, materials, training) ● ●●● ●●○ ●●○ 7 Reform preservice teaching institutions ● ●●● ●○○ ●○○ ●○○ 3 Improve pedagogical practices through effective teacher training and new approaches such as Teach at Right Level ● ●●● ●●○ ●●● ●●○ 7 Learning Expand foundational learning programs at all levels building on programs that exist and had delivered results ● ●●● ●○○ ●●○ ●○○ 4 Define and implement policy on mother tongue ○ ●●● ●●○ ●●○ ●●● 7 Enhance parenting practices / Reading as national goal ●●● ●○○ ●○○ ●○○ 3 Define financing targets aligned with realistic sector plans and monitor them yearly ● ●●○ ●○○ ●○○ ●●● 5 Financing and budgeting Use data for budget definition—justification of decisions ● ●●● ●○○ ●○○ ●●● 5 Discuss the 8th NFC Award that incorporates check and balances for education financing at federal and provincial ○ ●●● ●○○ ●○○ ●●● 5 levels Strengthen multi-year planning, budgeting, and procurement with clearer development plans, outcome based, and a ● ●●● ●○○ ●○○ ●○○ 3 shift to program-based budgeting Introduce/develop school grants programs for small expenses (nonsalary budgets) ○ ●●● ●●○ ●●○ ●●● 7 Key Message 3. Equity: Pakistan could address disparities in the allocation of funds Review allocation mechanisms, set targets, and monitor to narrow differences in expenditure per student ● ●●○ ●○○ ●○○ ●●● 5 Equity Ensure middle schools in rural areas are safe spaces for girls (boundary wall, female teachers, WASH, transport) ● ●●○ ●●○ ●○○ ●●● 6 Expand targeted support to disadvantage students ○ ●●○ ●●○ ●○○ ●○○ 4 Key Message 4. Management: Pakistan could enhance management practices Improve data quality (EMIS), integration, openness, 07 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS transparency and use for planning and budgeting ● ●●○ ●○○ ●●○ ●●● 6 Formalize coordination mechanisms at national and provincial Management levels, within provinces, including education foundations ● ●○○ ●○○ ●○○ ●●● 5 and literacy departments, cross-learning Review and reform education departments and programs to eliminate duplication of programs and activities ● ●●● ●○○ ●○○ ●●● 5 Make district funding rules-based and performance-based ○ ●●● ●○○ ●●○ ●●● 6 Review quality assurance process on inputs and supervision ●○○ ●○○ ●●○ 4 Key Message 5. Participation and buy-in: Pakistan could empower stakeholders Facilitate access to all education data to civil society organizations, academia (for analysis) ● ●●● ●○○ ●○○ ●●● 5 Parents Set up participatory budget process at education departments ○ ●●● ●○○ ●○○ ●●● 5 Carry out communication campaigns of the role of parents ● ●●● ●○○ ●○○ ●○○ 3 Discuss education budget at local education groups meetings ● ●○○ ●○○ ●○○ ●○○ 3 Source: Authors’ own table. 122 Many actions with low fiscal impact simply Evaluating the feasibility of various need proper planning and execution. educational reforms reveals a range Others, however, necessitate considerable of challenges and potential long-term political commitment. Coordination is a efficiency gains. Reforms deemed most prime example: the education sector in unviable have an index value of 9, such Pakistan could achieve more with available as expanding quality ECE. The viability resources through reduced duplication and of the reform is based on a sustainable improved coordination across the federation strategy. This initiative demands substantial and within provinces. This includes better financial investments, faces execution alignment with literacy departments complexity due to the imperative of and education foundations, as well as quality in ECE services, and requires clarifying the role and responsibility of every strong political commitment to evidence- institution at the federal and provincial based approaches. Nonetheless, when levels. Gains in efficiency will require more implemented effectively, it can yield than financial resources, they will require significant long-term efficiency gains by ongoing commitment. Another action that better preparing children for primary demands political will is opening the budget education and reducing repetition and process and creating platforms for citizen dropout rates. Other crucial reforms, accountability. Engaging in participatory with index values ranging from 3 to 7, can budgeting processes, discussing budgets enhance the sector’s efficiency by improving at district levels, and involving local learning, such as those aimed at boosting education groups could also be highly the effectiveness of teachers. Additionally, beneficial for creating the right incentives many reforms related to management, for public officials and protecting them from coordination, participation, and equity are outside influences that generate inefficient viable, promising substantial improvements expenditure allocations. in the sector’s functioning and efficiency (with scores between 3 and 6). The report includes an aggregate index called the Unviability Index (Table If the country is to use its resources 10.1). This index sums the number of more efficiently and tackle the pressing full circles assigned to three constraints: challenges of its education system, fiscal cost, execution complexity, and Pakistan must undertake many if not all, political buy-in. The Unviability Index can of these recommended reforms (Table range from 3 to 9, with higher numbers 10.1). Responding to the needs of children indicating less viable reforms due to and the nation is vital. This can be done high fiscal cost, complex execution, and with greater efficiency with existing funds the need for extensive political buy-in. as well as with an increase in education Conversely, reforms with lower values on investments. To spend existing funds better, the Unviability Index demand less fiscal and to have more to spend will enable the 07 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS effort, are simpler to execute, and enjoy country to deliver better learning outcomes widespread political support. for children, their families, and the country of Pakistan as a whole. SECTION NOTES 1 ASER Pakistan (2021). 5 Blanco Armas et al. (2019). 2 Barón et al. (2022); Dahlin and Barón (2023). 6 Banerjee et al. (2023). 3 Schady et al. (2023). 7 Ibid. 4 World Bank (2023b). 123 BIBLIOGRAPHY Ahmed, Manzoor, and Latifa Kamal. 2014. “The ASER Pakistan. 2022b. Annual Status of Political Economy of Fiscal Decentralisation Education Report (Urban) 2021. Lahore, in Pakistan: A Historical Perspective.” Bi- Pakistan: ASER Pakistan Secretariat and Annual Research Journal “Balochistan Idara-eTaleem-o-Aagahi (ITA). Review” 30 (1): 1–26. Ashraf, Muhammad Azeem, David A. 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