70412 WORLD BANK Reimbursable Technical Assistance Egyptian National Postal Organization REVIEW OF ASSET MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS DRAFT REPORT V3 JUNE 2009 WORLD BANK 1 EGYPT NATIONAL POST OFFICE (ENPO) REVIEW OF ASSET MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS I. Overview and Summary of Recommendations 1. Background 2. Overview 3. Summary of Recommendations II. Experience of Selected International Postal Operators 1. Poste Italiane (Italy) 2. La Poste (France) 3. Deutsche Post (Germany) 4. Postal Savings (Japan) III. Issues and Recommendations 1. Identified Issues 2. Recommendations Governance Framework Organizational Structure of Asset Management Operations Investment Policy Accounting for Investments Information System and Operational Procedures Reporting Action Plan 2 DISCLAIMER This document was prepared on the basis of two meetings with Egypt Post, phone interviews of Poste Italiane and La Banque Postale, email exchanges with Deutsche PostBank, and desk research on Japan PostBank. The analysis conducted in this report, and the recommendations that are formulated, are therefore mostly based on a benchmark approach and lacks the depth and precision that access to more information would have allowed. 3 EGYPT NATIONAL POST OFFICE (ENPO) REVIEW OF ASSET MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS I. Overview and Summary Recommendations 1. Background A World Bank mission composed of Isabelle Huynh and Rachid Ghozali visited Cairo from March 8 to March 12, 2009. The mission, conducted at the request of the Egypt National Postal Organization (ENPO), was focused on ENPO‟s management of savings deposits. The terms of reference (Annex 1) was agreed on between ENPO and the World Bank mission; however, the scope of assistance was further narrowed at ENPO‟s request to the following areas:  Appropriate benchmarks to similar postal organizations and post banks for asset class and different investment strategies  Review of investment manual in accordance to ENPO‟s investment strategy  Review of current investment procedures  Review of the current organizational structure of ENPO‟s investment functions  Proposal of an appropriate reporting system. This report presents the mission‟s observations and recommendations. The mission has not been able to review the Investment Manual and current Investment Procedures as the relevant documents have not been yet forwarded by ENPO as requested. In parallel, the Government of Egypt and the World Bank recently finalized the Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) which provides a comprehensive overview of on-going efforts led by the Government to improve the corporate governance of private and state-owned companies. While the codes of corporate governance do not apply to national organizations such as ENPO, those codes provide an excellent framework for ENPO to target. 2. Overview ENPO was established in 1865 and since its creation it has always had a clear mandate of public service that remains dominant until today despite the growing competitive pressures that the Organization is facing in most of its markets. ENPO‟s activities center around two major categories: (i) postal and other services, and (ii) financial services. Postal services include letters (regular and express mails) and parcels. Other services are public services, such as bills payments (telecom, car insurance, and taxes) and government services, including pension payment and 4 government money orders1. ENPO‟s other major activity is providing basic financial services2: savings deposits, electronic payments (a newly-created service that links 32 post offices to Visa and MasterCard, and is accessible with an Egypt Post card), Giro, and postal remittances. In fact, ENPO has been operating savings services on behalf of the Government for more than 100 years, like in many other contries where governments have relied on their postal network for basic mail and financial services as a nationwide infrastructure to unite their territory and drain savings needed to fund public investment projects. Up until recently (as this report will discuss in more details later), those deposits were channeled to a state-owned bank, the National Investment Bank (NIB), against a fixed remuneration set by the Government. ENPO currently holds 18 million savings accounts, against 8 million for the rest of the banking sector, making it the first financial institution in the country in terms of number of accounts. In terms of deposits however, ENPO remains under 10% which is typical for postal operators whose customers are usually low-income households with small savings, therefore the large number of accounts does not translate into a large amount of total savings. ENPO provides daily interest accounts, and postal savings passbook. More recently, it introduced the postal investment book with guaranteed principal. Table 1 shows that the deposit-taking activity of ENPO has grown significantly during the period FY02-FY08, partly due to the competitive interest rate offered on deposits (9.25%). While total savings in the economy have increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.1 percent per annum (p.a.), the Postal Office savings grew at a significantly higher pace of 24.7 percent p.a. As a result, the share of Postal Savings‟ in total savings has increased from 5.3 percent in FY02 to 9 percent in FY08. 1 Government Money Orders are financial bonds issued by governmental bodies and paid to eligible recipients through post offices. 2 In local currency. 5 Table 13 Total Savings (in bil. EGP) Year (ending june 30) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Savings in the Banking system 268.9 317.1 357.3 404.2 451.1 531.4 596.1 of which: -Time & saving deposits in local currency 192.7 212 233.6 283 314.2 377.4 436.3 -Demand and time & saving deposits 76.2 105 123.7 121.2 136.9 154 159.8 in foreign currencies Net Sales of Investment Certificates 49 55.2 60.2 58.5 63.7 68.3 79.4 Post Office Saving Deposits 17.7 22.8 28.4 35.5 45.5 55.7 66.7 Total Savings 335.6 395.1 445.9 498.2 560.3 655.4 742.2 Share of Post Office Savings (%) 5.3% 5.8% 6.4% 7.1% 8.1% 8.5% 9.0% Source : Central Bank of Egypt, Annual Report 2007-2008 According to financial data provided by ENPO to the Universal Postal Union, in 2007, financial services accounted for 50 percent of income in 2007; letter post, 41 percent; parcels, one percent; other products, eight percent; and philately, 0.66 percent. Operating revenues increased from USD 420 million in 2003 to USD 861 million in 2007, growing at 17.6 percent p.a. largely on account of the significant increase in postal deposit savings during the period. Consequently, interest revenues drawn from savings deposits channeled to NIB rose due to this volume increase and fixed remuneration. This growth in revenues has been accompanied by an improvement in operating margin efficiency as operating revenue increased from 2.6 percent in 2003 to 6.2 percent in 2007. As mentioned above, before 2006, ENPO collected savings deposits and transferred them to the NIB, which invested these funds in government infrastructure projects and provided a fixed rate of return on the invested funds. Since 2006 -- following a decree4 -- about 20 percent of savings deposits has been managed directly by ENPO. Asset management was new to ENPO and it needed to build an adequate infrastructure for this activity, including specialized expertise, appropriate IT systems, a governance and reporting framework then lacking in ENPO. 3 This table is extracted from the Central Bank of Egypt „s annual report; the term “deposits� would be more accurate than the term “savings� used in these reports. 4 The Mission did not receive the actual decree/regulation and is hence not in a position to comment in detail. 6 3. Summary of Recommendations Since 2006, ENPO has taken steps to build its governance structure. It designed an organization structure which includes the basic functions required for an asset management operation. However, this organization remains incomplete and would not meet the requirements of an effective asset management structure, an improved oversight, accounting, reporting and auditing functions, better accountability and risk management capabilities. Further measures are urgently needed to establish a sound governance framework for its asset management activities. Regulatory / Institutional Oversight. The Mission could not identify which institutional entity oversees ENPO‟s asset management. It seems that neither MCIT, nor the Ministry of Finance exercises such an oversight function. Still, there is a need to clarify which government entity has oversight responsibility for the activity. This entity needs to have the authority and capacity to supervise financial services to ensure that depositors‟ savings are managed prudently in a sound governance framework, with adequate investment and risk management capabilities, and in particular to protect the interest of its customers who count amongst the most vulnerable groups in Egypt. Responsibility and Accountability for Managing Savings Deposits. ENPO does not manage the bulk of the deposits that it collects. The new rule introduced by decree in 2006 allocates a share of the new deposits to ENPO to manage, but it seems that ENPO has no control over this share and has to adapt a posteriori to a decision process that is led by NIB. It is recommended that the terms of the new rule be clearly defined and aligned with responsibility and accountability for the management of savings deposits collected by ENPO. Governance. It is recommended that a governance framework for an Investment Policy be formulated and set up by the Board, along with Investment Guidelines. This would be approved by the Chairman with the support of the Investment Committee in place (the High Investment Committee) made up of prominent members of the local banking community. Organizational Structure. The organization structure recently designed by ENPO for asset management operations could be streamlined to include a front office that is in charge of all investment activities, a middle office that would be in charge of risk management, compliance and report generation, a back office that would carry out bookkeeping, reconciliation and settlements, and a Cash Management unit. These units would be grouped under the existing Investment Department. The existing Treasury Assets and Liability Management Department under the VP Financial Portfolio and Investment Affairs would play an important role in: (i) analyzing the characteristics and risk of the deposit liabilities; (ii) monitoring and reporting on overall ENPO financial issues including risk and credit management; and (iii) ensuring sound integrated risk management across the institution from an Asset Liability Management (ALM) standpoint. The proposed organization must ensure the separation of trading and investing, settlement, accounting and reconciliation responsibilities within the existing 7 organizational structure. This organization needs also to be adequately staffed as ENPO needs critically-specialized skills in asset management. The functions of each operational unit must be detailed and job descriptions prepared for each position to be filled. Asset Allocation. ENPO needs to undertake a review of its asset allocation taking into account the risk characteristics of its deposit liabilities and the institution‟s tolerance for volatility of earnings resulting from a high allocation to equities. Portfolio Management System. ENPO needs to acquire an appropriate information system to effectively manage its cash and investment portfolio, to enhance its analytical and risk-management capabilities and automate basic investment activities, including portfolio management, monitoring and reporting. ENPO submitted requirements to SAP for additional functionalities for asset management. The mission requested those requirements and proposed to assist ENPO in defining the specifications for the required functionalities for asset management; however, it did not receive the information requested. Furthermore, it is not clear to what extent the SAP system recently acquired is capable of providing the functionalities needed for investment management. Accounting for Investments. As a state-owned enterprise, ENPO must keep its accounts in accordance with the Unified System of Accounting. ENPO is audited by the Central Accounting Organization. The accounting standards issued by the Central Accounting organization are reportedly in conformity with the Egyptian Accounting Standards; however, they are not in full conformity with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). It is recommended that ENPO adopt as soon as possible International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) to account for investment management operations in accordance with international standards. This measure would be consistent with Egypt‟s full adoption of IFRS. Reporting. ENPO management should design and produce a set of reports for an effective monitoring of asset management activities. These reports should be designed according to the content, periodicity and level of detail, as appropriate, for each recipient. The recipients of these reports include the Board (quarterly, aggregate level), the Investment Committee (monthly, aggregate level), Department Manager (daily, aggregate level), and Investment Managers (daily, detailed). II. Experience of Selected International Postal Operators Following ENPO‟s request, we have reviewed four international postal operators to identify best practices and draw from their experience in the management of savings deposits. These operators include Poste Italiane, La Poste in France, Deutsche Post in Germany, and Postal Savings in Japan. Of these four operators, the situation of Poste Italiane is the closest to that of ENPO. Poste Italiane has not established a postal bank -- as the others have -- and is still managing the savings deposits it collects internally. The three others have evolved towards the creation of a postal bank. 8 It should be noted that the time frame reviewed for this report covered the period before these operators established a postal bank to carry out financial services. Consequently, a few relevant observations emerged.  As soon as the Postal Operator takes responsibility for managing the deposits it collects, its asset management activities come under the supervision of the local financial supervisor: the Central Bank in the case of France 5, Germany and Italy.  The investment of deposits is highly conservative and matches the risk profile of the deposit liabilities. In some cases, it is restricted to government bonds (Poste Italiane), or predominantly in government bonds and government agencies (Deutsche Post). In cases where the allocation to equities was allowed, the share allocated to equities tends to be highly restricted, that is, not exceeding 4 percent for Japan Post and about 3 percent for La Poste.  In general, the operators reviewed had established an elaborate process involving the development of a model to capture the risk embedded in the structure of deposit liabilities. This model is then used to derive the structure and risk (duration) of the investments required to match the deposit liabilities risk profile. Poste Italiane (Italy) Poste Italiane manages 5 million deposit accounts and operates a network of 14,000 post offices which gives the operator a significant comparative advantage in the distribution of financial products. The asset management of postal deposits is under the responsibility of Banco Posta. Banco Posta is, however, not a bank and its activities are carried out within a Department of Poste Italiane. Nevertheless, the activities of Banco Posta are supervised by the Central Bank of Italy. Banco Posta manages 35 billion euros in deposit accounts and the revenues generated by these investments constitute a significant share of Poste Italiane revenues6. The recent steep decline in interest rates, therefore, became a major challenge for Poste Italiane. Until 2007, Poste Italiane was required to transfer all the deposits received to the Treasury which, in turn, provided a fixed interest rate to Poste Italiane. A new law issued in 2007 authorized Poste Italiane to manage its deposits. The law restricted Poste Italiane investments to euro government bonds. The Board of Directors further narrowed this authorization and restricted investments to Italian government bonds and to euro government bonds with ratings higher than that of Italy. The investment strategy of Banco Posta is prudent and conservative. Banco Posta‟s asset management activities are driven by three major objectives: 5 With the creation of Efiposte in 2000. 6 Banco Posta remunerates depositors at a 0.25% interest rates (although there is no legal mandatory remuneration on current accounts in Italy. On average, interest rates earned on the 35 billions euros investment has been 4.5% (although it has dropped recently to 0.8%). 9  Manage deposits to achieve stable return from its investment portfolio.  Ensure an effective and prudent management of its balance sheet.  Ensure that its transactions do not have an inordinate impact on the financial market given their large size. To this effect, Banco Posta was allowed to use derivatives but for the sole purpose of hedging and in order to avoid having an undesirable impact on the debt markets with its large transactions. The key for Banco Posta to implement an effective asset/liability management was to capture the risk of its liability structure embedded in the overall deposit base taking into account the volatility of inflows and outflows. It developed to this effect a model that maps the structure of its liabilities and allows it to derive the duration risk of its liabilities and to select the appropriate duration of its investments to match the interest risk of its liabilities and earn a stable return. Furthermore, in order to provide for liquidity needs, Banco Posta deposits a portion of its funds in a Treasury account at a rate in line with Italian Treasury bills (BOT). Asset Management activities at Banco Posta are conducted under a sound governance framework. It has an Investment Committee (Financial Affairs) and a Risk Management Committee. Functions are properly segregated to ensure proper controls. Its operations are adequately staffed for the level of funds to be managed and the number of transactions it executes (a staff of eight in the front office; six in the middle office; and about 10 in the overall Poste Italiane back office handle Banco Posta‟s back office transactions). La Poste (France) La Poste has relatively early on decided to develop its postal financial services into a full fledge bank. It took more than a decade and three phases to reach this objective. Until 1999, all savings deposited at La Poste were managed by outside institutions, similar to ENPO before 2006. For postal current accounts (Comptes Chèques Postaux, CCP), La Poste transferred the funds to the Treasury and received a fixed rate indexed on short- term rates, including a fee for deposit mobilization. Savings deposits were managed by the Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations (CDC). Beginning in 2000, the authorities transferred the responsibility to manage those funds to La Poste, which amount to about 60 billion euros. The period 2000-2005 was a transition period during which La Poste organized itself to manage the savings it collected. In 2005, it created a subsidiary, Efiposte, with a status of Investment Company that was supervised by the Commission Bancaire, a supervisory body of the Central Bank that supervises banks in France. Efiposte, a wholly-held subsidiary of La Poste, was assigned the responsibility of managing savings deposits collected by La Poste. Efiposte was established with an initial capital of 150 million euros. Efiposte had to present an elaborate analysis of the characteristics of liabilities (maturity and volatility, as well as cost) to determine the best policy asset mix for its investments. 10 Its investment strategy was driven by two key factors: (i) developing an asset allocation that matched the characteristics of the liabilities; and (ii) prudent management of liquidity risk. La Poste investment policy was, therefore, prudent with limited tolerance for risk. The asset allocation included 15 percent in short-term fixed income instruments and around 82 percent in government bonds. La Poste also had a small allocation to equities representing a little over 3 percent which was assigned to external managers. When La Poste assumed responsibility for the management of its funds, managing liquidity risk became a significant factor in funds management, unlike in previous arrangements where the Treasury provided any needed liquidity, hence assuming for La Poste its liquidity risk. Efiposte‟s organization included a staff of 12 in the investment unit, (before Efiposte, three people managed La Poste liquidity); six in the middle office and three in IT Systems. When the Government eventually allowed La Poste to create a full fledge bank that could lend money to its customers, a long time objective of La Poste, La Banque Postale was created in 2006 on the basis of Efiposte, supervised and regulated by the Commission Bancaire. Deutsche Post (Germany) The evolution to a Postal Bank occurred much earlier in Germany than in the cases so far reviewed. In 1990, the Deutsche PostBank was established and savings deposits, as well as other financial services, were migrated to the newly-created Postal Bank which manages about 20 billion euros. Prior to 1990, the postal financial services were a business unit of the Deutsche BundesPost, which was a completely state-owned institution. The Bundespost operated under the oversight of a Public Administration body. In addition, the financial services activities of the Bundespost, which were by and large similar to those of insurance companies, and building and loan associations, were governed by the Banking Act (KWG) and were supervised by the German Central Bank (the Bundesbank). The Financial services unit of the Bundespost had a restricted banking license that precluded it from offering any lending products. As a state-owned enterprise, Bundespost was required to invest savings deposits in low-risk instruments, including government bonds or development bonds that financed national development projects (principally development of telecommunication infrastructure). Postal Savings (Japan) Prior to 2001, postal savings in Japan were administered by the Postal Savings Bureau, an Agency of the Ministry of Post and Telecommunications (MPT). Postal savings were deposited with the Trust Fund Bureau of Ministry of Finance (MoF) and were part of the Zaito Funds where they served as an important source of funding for the Fiscal Investment Loan Program (FILP). Zaito Funds were a Japanese government program 11 that borrowed at low rates from the postal savings system to finance public works. This scheme was often criticized for funding questionable projects. From the postal savings system standpoint, the savings deposits were invested in safe Japanese government bonds. This scheme was abolished in 2000 by a Diet Law that transferred management of the funds to MPT. A study group was established to formulate an institutional framework for postal savings management. The report was an input for the Law that was passed by the Diet. The institutional framework established postal savings management objectives, investment policy, risk management, controls, and human resources. The report also underlined the main considerations which needed to underpin the investment policy formulation, some of which are presented below:  Implementing an ALM approach  Carrying out efficient portfolio management from a risk and return perspective  Emphasizing safety and security  Designing an optimum policy asset mix to achieve the target risk and return  Taking into account liability costs and cash flows in designing the policy asset mix. In April 2003, postal savings were transferred from the Postal Savings Bureau to Japan Post, a newly-established public corporation wholly-owned by the Government. With a pool of savings estimated at US$ 2.1 trillion, Japan Post is the largest holder of personal savings in the world. Japan Post operated between 2003 and 2007 as a public corporation wholly-owned by the Government. The process of privatizing of Japan Post began on October 1, 2007, and Japan Post Holdings (also called Japan Post Group) was established to operate the postal services. Japan Post Group includes four companies: Japan Post Service, Japan Post Network, Japan Post Bank and Japan Post Insurance. Privatization is expected to be completed by 2017, and Japan Post Bank and Japan Post Insurance are expected to go public in 2010. During that interim period, Japan Post was required by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications to formulate a medium-term management plan. In the context of the first management plan, the objectives and asset allocation of postal savings for the period 2003-2006 were:  To invest in domestic bonds for the purpose of security and stability  To allow domestic stocks, foreign bonds and foreign stocks with the following tight restrictions: (i) domestic stocks, two percent or less; (ii) foreign bonds, three percent or less; and (iii) foreign stocks, one percent or less. Moreover, the allocation to domestic stocks, and foreign bonds and stocks combined could not exceed 4 percent of investments. 12 III. Issues and Recommendations 1. Asset management operations of ENPO Total postal savings in Egypt were reported to represent LE 66.7 billion in 2008, or about US$ 12 billion equivalent. ENPO manages about 20 percent of those funds, or about US$ 2.4 billion, all invested in domestic assets. In addition, ENPO holds a 20% stake as a direct investment in Etisalat, which means that a large share of ENPO investments is not liquid. However it is unclear whether the investment resources in Etisalat are drawn from the savings deposits or from another source. Savings deposits management activities are conducted by the Investment Department under the supervision of the VP Financial Portfolio and Investment Affairs (Annex 2). ENPO has three Committees to steer the asset management activities:  High Investment Committee which includes senior management and prominent members from the banking and financial community. This Committee defines the strategy, including the sectors in which ENPO invests, and the management of risk and return. It reports to the Chairman and to the Board.  The Technical Investment Committee which includes two ENPO executives, a Board member, and two experts. This committee is responsible for security selection, screening and selecting bank counterparts for deposits.  Direct Investment Committee which: (i) undertakes research for business development; and (ii) reviews investment proposals submitted to ENPO. The High Investment Committee meets monthly, while the Technical Committee meets weekly. ENPO has hired six local external managers including, Hermes, Belton, Cairo Capital, HC, Delta, and Prime. External managers are ranked every month according to their performance. EFG-Hermes‟ mandate is to manage equities only. Belton has a buy-and-hold strategy mandate. A report on investment managers‟ performance is produced weekly. The mission had requested meetings with two of ENPO‟s external managers but was not able to obtain a meeting or conference calls. Consequently, in absence of information about the external managers‟ mandates and their performance, the mission was unable to provide any comments. The asset allocation selected by ENPO is 70 percent fixed income and 30 percent equities with a permissible deviation of +/- 10 percent. ENPO officials indicated that the allocation to equities was recently reduced. A large share of the funds is in the form of a direct equity investment in Etisalat, the Egyptian mobile operator, a subsidiary of a Middle East telecom operator. 13 2. Identified Issues Regulatory / Institutional Oversight. ENPO‟s regulatory framework lacks clarity, given its dual role as postal operator and deposit taker. MCIT is the regulator for ENPO with regard to its postal operations. It remains unclear; however, which institution regulates ENPO‟s savings investment activities. Indeed, part of the governance is carried out by its Board of Directors where there is a broad representation. This, however, cannot be a substitute for a qualified external supervisor. In the countries reviewed for this report, asset management activities of the postal operator were supervised by the Central Bank even before these activities were migrated to a Postal Bank. Aligning Responsibility and Accountability for Savings Management. ENPO collects savings deposits; however, it has no control over the investment of 80 percent of savings deposits it has mobilized. Until 2006, all savings deposits mobilized by ENPO were transferred to NIB which invested them in government infrastructure projects. The return on these investments is set by the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and is reviewed every six months. The most recent reported rate of return on investments obtained from ENPO‟s deposits at NIB was 9.5 percent. MOF also sets the rate ENPO gives to its depositors on savings accounts. The most recent rate was 9.25 percent, which gives ENPO an interest margin spread of 25bp. While ENPO is entrusted with the fiduciary responsibility of managing depositors‟ savings, it has no control on the investment of a large share of these savings. In 2006, the authorities allowed ENPO to manage about 20 percent of the new savings inflow. This, however, does not seem to be a fixed allocation and is subject to negotiations according to ENPO management. These remuneration rules are not marked-based, and as such pause an important constraint on the ability of ENPO to undertake adequat ALM. If the investment in Etisalat is drawn from savings deposits, this may cause undesirable risk mismatches between deposit liabilities and investments. Staffing. Even though the actual management of deposits is outsourced to external managers, a core level of expertise and systems is still required internally to formulate the investment strategy, define external managers mandates including defining return objectives and tracking errors, select, evaluate and monitor external managers, and implement risk management and compliance activities. In this respect, the Investment Department at ENPO lacks the critical resources, such as specialized expertise and systems, to adequately carry out its newly-acquired responsibility to manage savings deposits. Also, it is critically understaffed, with reportedly only 2 staff that were recruited from the private sector and reporting to the VP Financial Portfolio and Investment Affairs. Information and Portfolio Management System. ENPO‟s decision to hire external asset managers was justified, given that it does not have adequate resources to carry out this activity in-house. However, hiring external managers does not exempt ENPO from having a minimum infrastructure to ensure proper monitoring of external managers and to carry out risk-management and reporting activities. The fiduciary responsibility for a 14 prudent management of deposits remains ultimately with ENPO. To the extent that investment activities are carried out wholly, or to a large extent by external managers, the level of investment management systems required would be much lower than if these activities are conducted internally. Nevertheless, a minimum infrastructure, including a staff expertise, a portfolio management system, and risk management analytical tools are still required to support the asset management activities, monitor external managers, monitor compliance, control risk allocation and measure the performance of the portfolio. ENPO does not have the required Management Information Systems to carry out a proper cash management function, a basic and critical aspect of funds management. Accounting for Investment Operations. As a state enterprise, ENPO is required by law to keep its accounts in accordance with the Unified System of Accounting. The Central Accounting Organization audits ENPO‟s accounts. The accounting standards issued by the Central Accounting Organization are in conformity with the Egyptian accounting standards; however, they are not in full conformity with the IFRS. It is recommended that ENPO adopt IFRS to account for its investment operations. The difficulty in implementing IFRS reporting is to build a team that possesses proficiency in investment accounting and fixed-income instruments. Asset Allocation. The mission did not obtain much information regarding ENPO‟s investments. Nevertheless, the presumed asset allocation of 70/30 (bond/equities), with a possible deviation of +/-10 percent, is more akin to that of long-term investors, such as Pension Funds, and does not reflect the specific risk structure and characteristics of ENPO‟s deposit liabilities. In order to limit risk exposure, investing 5% in equity is the ceiling adopted by many postal operators who are offering financial services. A review of the investment mix as well as the structure of the deposit liabilities is critically needed to ensure that ENPO‟s assets‟ risk profile matches that of its deposit liabilities. 3. Recommendations The recommendations presented here should be seen in light of a major uncertainty related to the size of deposits that ENPO will be called upon to manage directly. At this stage, it is not clear whether the formula fixing the percentage of new deposits to be managed by ENPO (reportedly about 20 percent) is well established, or if it is subject to changes. It is also not clear whether the stock of deposits currently managed by NIB on behalf of ENPO will, at some point, be migrated under the management responsibility of ENPO as has been the case for many international postal operators. The outcome of these decisions would have a major impact in terms of the type and size of the asset management infrastructure, including IT systems that ENPO would need to build for such an undertaking. A significant growth in assets under management at ENPO would also raise the question as to what proportion of assets would be managed by external managers and what proportion would be managed internally, and eventually lead to consider the creation of a subsidiary in charge of asset management similar to the French model with Efiposte. At this stage of the analysis however, whether ENPO contemplates the outsourcing option or not, the need to strengthen internal capacities is identified as a priority. 15 It must also be noted that local capital market conditions may constrain ENPO‟s flexibility in implementing its investment strategy. The secondary market for government bonds is shallow and liquidity is virtually inexistent. The Egyptian Treasury is now reopening issues to increase their size and liquidity and this is a positive development that should enhance liquidity in the market. The Treasury has also expanded the range of maturities it issues. Tbills have maturities of three months, six months, nine months and one year; while, Tnotes and bonds include maturities of three, five, seven and 20 years. Governance Framework A major element of a good governance framework for managing savings deposits is to begin with a document defining in broad terms the constraints and objectives of the management of deposits by the postal operator. In international good practice, this is done by a decree or law. Furthermore, as the postal operator takes responsibility for the direct management of savings deposits, there is a need for a qualified supervisor to oversee the asset management activities. This stems from the fact that the traditional line Ministry does not have the capability or the required specialized skills to oversee the financial services activities. In our review of international operators, asset management activities carried out by the postal operator were supervised by the local Central Bank even before those activities were transferred to a newly-established Post Bank A good governance structure is characterized by:  The Board of Directors‟ ownership of the portfolio risk/return profile (the strategic asset allocation decision)  Board delegation of operational decisions and oversight to the Chairman, with the support of the Investment Committee; and  An institutional framework that ensures depositors‟ savings will be managed in accordance with the objectives and constraints determined by the Board. It is recommended that a governance framework be implemented through a policy authorization comprising an Investment Policy, which would be set by the Board, and Investment Guidelines, which would be approved by the Chairman with the support of the Investment Committee which is already in place and operational. Once the organizational structure is complete and staffed with adequate investment and risk management skills, the governance framework should allow for a balanced delegation of authority along the hierarchical structure based on the Board‟s specification of the broad criteria that should govern the management of savings deposits; the approval by the Chairman of a Strategic Asset Allocation and Investment Guidelines that are consistent with the Board‟s policy specification with the support of the Investment Committee; and Management‟s responsibility over implementation. Implementation of an investment policy designed based on the liabilities risk profile and Investment 16 Guidelines is a key component in setting up a sound governance framework for asset management operations. Figure 1 illustrates how the various functions and responsibilities described previously are distributed along the organization‟s hierarchy. These functions include investment policy setting, investment guidelines, auditing and controls and operational units to implement the specific policies, covering investment activities, risk management, compliance, reporting, cash management, and back office operations. This organization sets the framework thatENPO needs to put in place as a prerequisite for establishing a sound governance structure.. Figure 1 Governance Structure for Savings Deposits Management BOARD Sets Investment Policy governing Internal Audit investments, structure, tolerance to market -Operational Risk -Financial Risk risk, credit quality, and eligible asset classes Investment Committee Sets asset allocation that matches liability deposits risk profile and Investment Guidelines consistent with Investment Policy VP Financial Portfolio and Investment Affairs Internal Control -Reliable Reports; Compliance with laws and regulations, and Director Investment Department internal procedures. Back Office Front Office Middle Office Cash Management - Money Markets -Compliance -Reconciliation - Fixed Income -Risk analysis Cash; Securities; Manage cash balances; daily cash -Performance analysis Claims & Investigations positions and reconciliation of bank -Other eligible instruments -Settlements -Reporting accounts; cash flow analysis and Confirmations; Payments forecasting -Strategic Asset Allocation Transfers, -External Managers -Bookkeeping evaluation and monitoring 17 Organizational Structure of Asset Management Activities ENPO recently designed an organization structure for its asset management activities. This organizational structure incorporates the basic functions needed to conduct asset management operations, but it needs to be complemented with a clear definition of the specific processes and functions of the various units, a staffing plan and detailed job descriptions of the various positions that will staff the various units. It could also be streamlined, given the current scope and volume of activities undertaken by the Investment Department. The lower part of Figure 1 outlines the organization structure proposed by the mission. This structure should reflect a clear separation of roles and responsibilities between the areas responsible for trading, compliance, settlements, accounting and reconciliation. Such segregation would provide the Board and the Chairman with enough confidence to delegate authority along the hierarchical structure, with the knowledge that appropriate checks and controls are in place to ensure compliance with the policy decisions. The asset management operations would be grouped under the existing Investment Department reporting to the VP Financial Portfolio and Investment Affairs. Furthermore, it is recommended that an Internal Controller‟s position reporting to the VP Financial Portfolio and Investment Affairs be created. The primary functions of the Internal Controller would be to ensure:  That The Investments Department‟s activities are conducted satisfactorily and efficiently;  That reports are reliable; and  That there is compliance with laws and regulations, as well as internal procedures. The functions and staffing of the four operational units are summarized below:  The Manager of Investments in the front office, a highly critical position, would be responsible for managing money market and fixed-income securities portfolio with a team of four portfolio managers.  The Manager of the middle office would be responsible for two critical functions: (i) the analytical/oversight function of monitoring risk, ensuring compliance, measuring performance and preparing reports, and would be staffed with three analysts; and (ii) the applied quantitative research required to provide management with the necessary technical support to set investment policy, asset allocation and investment guidelines, for which it will require a staff of two with strong quantitative and modeling skills. In addition, the middle office is in charge of recruiting/evaluating external managers 18  The Manager of the back office operations unit would be responsible for settlements (staff of two), recording operations in the accounting system (staff of two) and managing reconciliation (staff of one).  The Manager of the cash management unit would be responsible for managing cash balances, preparing cash flow analysis and forecasting, monitoring daily cash positions and reconciliation of all bank accounts. This unit could be staffed with two to three people. Each Unit manager would, finally, be responsible for the key processes involved in implementing policy decisions. In order to maximize the efficiency of this organization, ENPO should identify ways and means to:  Provide adequate training to ensure that staff acquires the requisite knowledge and the practical experience for their respective responsibilities. Staffing should combine training of young and promising graduates to be involved in asset management and the hiring of experienced personnel from the private sector.  Set-up the capacity to select, monitor and evaluate external managers to manage asset classes that are not cost efficient to manage in-house and require highly specialized expertise. Investment Policy The Investment Policy approved by the Board sets the broad criteria that govern the long- term management of the postal savings deposits with due regard to liquidity risk, market risk, credit risk and asset class eligibility. The investment policy aims at ensuring a stable spread between the asset mix return and the deposit liabilities cost. Its objective is to maximize long-term average total returns of the portfolio in a way that is consistent with the liquidity objectives and tolerable return volatility over a predetermined investment horizon. For a Postal Operator, management of savings deposits stems from an elaborate analysis of the characteristics of its deposit liabilities. Unlike pension funds and investment trusts, the postal savings services feature the following characteristics:  As depositors are guaranteed payments of principal and interest, all risks are borne by this scheme which means that a relatively limited amount of risk is permissible in managing these funds.  A postal operator faces the risks of constantly changing liability costs, and may experience volatile short-term inflows and outflows of funds. Given these 19 characteristics, risk management in the investment of funds that is suited to these liability characteristics is important. The current investment mix exposes ENPO to a liquidity risk resulting from a mismatch between its assets and its deposit liabilities. An appropriate investment policy implies adjusting the term composition of both assets and liabilities and managing cash flows to ensure a stable spread (investment income - liability costs) each fiscal year. Establishing a strategic asset allocation process by which the Board‟s policy criteria governing the investment portfolio‟s structure, and tolerance to market, credit and liquidity risk are translated into investment guidelines and a policy asset mix using quantitative modeling techniques is critical. Determining the appropriate policy asset mix for savings deposits management implies:  Setting investment horizon in accordance with liability characteristics  Setting a risk/return objective to be attained during that period  Defining risk tolerance through simulations and other means and selecting the portfolio of assets corresponding to the risk tolerance on the efficient frontier. Empirical evidence shows that about 90 percent of portfolio returns are attributable to the design of the strategic asset allocation, and a remaining share of 10 percent only to active trading. Set a permissible divergence range by:  Taking into account the characteristics of such funds, long-term and stable fund management should be undertaken, meaning that the funds should be invested chiefly in safe and secure assets  Having the investment committee to provide advice to the Chairman when adjustments are needed to the asset allocation in response to changes in expected market conditions using forward-looking quantitative modeling techniques  Giving due consideration to liquidity needs as they constitute a critical aspect in savings deposits management. Clear limits should be specified for exposure to credit risk (counterparty risk and instruments credit risk) so that the overall credit exposure reflects the maximum tolerance the Board can accept for the cost of downgrades and defaults, with the probability of such events occurring supposedly reflected in the rating category. This would allow the investment committee to adjust minimum rating eligibility, select issuers and set concentration limits as credit conditions change. 20 Performance of postal savings management should be evaluated from an ALM standpoint to assess whether a stable spread is being sustainably achieved between investment return and liabilities cost. From a portfolio management perspective, the risk and return of the actual asset portfolio should be compared to those of the policy asset mix and reasons for excess or deficits should be explained. Accounting for Investments It is recommended that an International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) be implemented to account for the special characteristics of the investment management operations. Furthermore, it is good practice not to let accounting policy drive the economic value of investment transactions. The proper measure of investment management performance is total return. It is also common in official institutions to place great importance on reported accounting returns, instead of the mark-to-market total returns that report the true value of assets and performance. It is important to note, however, that in such cases, the income reported in published financial statements may differ markedly from the total return mark-to-market income from the investment portfolio. While the published income statement usually receives more attention from senior management, the government and the public, it is important to remember that the actual economic value of the investment portfolio is reflected only in the mark-to-market total returns, and the published results can actually be somewhat misleading. Focusing primarily on the published results, may lead to inefficient asset management activities with measurable long-term opportunity costs to the institution. (According to IFRS, assets are marked to market unless they are considered held to maturity (such as bonds), in that case they are valued at amortized cost; are you suggesting that held-to-maturity assets should be valued at mark-to-market? Response: No. The point I am making is that accounting should not drive investment decisions. Some institutions have constraints that they cannot sell an investment at a loss and that is highly constraining because it limits their ability to redeploy investments to better return instruments and may preclude them from relative value investments (spread trades) that can be enhance return.) Information System and Operational Procedures The implementation of a fully-automated operational process should be a fundamental component of the effort to set up a modern asset management operation. Current operational processes in the area require manual interventions and controls. With the current state of affairs, already scarce staff resources may find themselves in operational functions, rather than in developing the necessary investment management and analytical skills required to manage the deposits more efficiently. This situation also exposes ENPO to a high risk of error due to manual interventions and a high level of operational risk that 21 could be costly to the institution. It also limits the scope for enhancing asset management efficiency going forward. The acquisition of a risk and portfolio management is associated with high upfront costs and IT maintenance cost. A relatively low volume of transactions as is currently the case at ENPO, does not justify the cost of such an acquisition. Until such time that the volume of business justifies the acquisition of an onsite installation, and if SAP cannot accommodate ENPO needs adequately, consideration should be given to a system that could be delivered via the Internet to a desktop by an Application Service Provider (ASP). The system should operate on real time and be capable of serving the needs of portfolio managers transacting in a wide spectrum of financial instruments. The system should have Straight Through Processing technology (STP) which would provide data integration and workflow from front to back offices with proven reliability. There is also a need to ensure that operational procedures are well documented and disseminated to all concerned staff to ensure that they comply with internal procedures and guidelines. It is recommended that a procedures manual be prepared as a source of information on ENPO‟s asset management activities, its objectives, its organization, its systems and its control procedures. This manual must be updated occasionally, as needed. It is an obligation for staff involved in asset management activities to read it. Reporting Reporting is another key element of a sound governance framework. It is a critical control and investment decision tool. ENPO should develop a set of reports for its asset management activities. The mission did not have the opportunity to see what type of reports ENPO is currently producing for its asset management activities. Nevertheless, the following paragraph sets the basic elements of an effective reporting system.  Each report should be tailored to meet the audiences‟ needs: Board, investment committee, department manager, and investment managers. The middle office is responsible for the production of these reports.  Reports should provide the appropriate level of detail depending on the hierarchy; reports are more detailed at working levels and summarized at senior levels. They should be verified, produced in a timely manner, daily at the working level, less frequently at more senior levels – monthly or quarterly. Table 2 indicates the types of reports to be generated, classified by recipient. 22 Reports to be Generated Recipient Frequency Level of Deatail Content Investment Managers Daily Detailed Cash Position Holdings of individual securities Risk of assets and liabilities Gap analysis Return on assets, Cost of liabilities, Spread Performance analysis Limit violations Department Manager Daily Agrregate Size of investment portfolio Risk of assets and liabilities Gap analysis Return on assets, Cost of liabilities, Spread Performance analysis Limit violations Investment Committee Monthly Aggregate Size and Composition of Investment Portfolio Return on assets, Cost of liabilities, Spread Performance analysis Risk of Assets and liabilities, gap analysis External Managers Performance Market Overview Forward looking strategy Board of Directors Quarterly Aggregate Size and composition of investment portfolio Return on assets, cost of liabilities, spread Performance analysis External managers integrated Action Plan Implementation of a modern and sound asset management infrastructure by ENPO is a challenging effort that will involve a great deal of management resources and a firm commitment from ENPO senior management. The approval of an adequate budget to meet the needs of this project will also be critical for success. Given the scope of the project, it is recommended that the VP of Financial Portfolio and Investment Affairs set up a project management structure as follows:  The investment committee would approve objectives, monitor progress towards objectives and report periodically to the Board.  A dedicated project manager should be appointed to report to the investment committee and coordinate the various tasks. The project manager should possess expertise in asset management operations and have the necessary management skills and authority to coordinate the implementation of the action plan. 23 The project which would include setting up the basic elements of the governance framework and asset management organization would probably take between 12 and 18 months and would include the following tasks. In parallel, the rolling out of the IFRS would be an enabling condition for accountability and transparency. Governance  Review and implement a governance framework  Set up the organization structure including recruiting and training staff  Prepare description of the processes and functions of each operational unit and prepare job descriptions for each position to be filled  Design a policy asset mix based on the structure of liabilities Prepare Investment Guidelines  Prepare a Procedures Manual  Staff middle office and begin developing tools for: o Monitoring compliance o Monitoring Risk o Measuring and Evaluating Performance  Producing Management reports Cash Management  Automated cash management system  Cash flow analysis and forecasting Risk and Portfolio Management Procurement of an information system (scope depends on the overall expected volume of deposits to manage and the proportion that is expected to be managed internally vs. externally). Assess the merits of a system that could be delivered via the Internet to a desktop via an Application Service Provider (ASP). The system should have Straight Through Processing technology (STP), with data integration and workflow from front to back offices. Accounting Implement International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) to account for investment management operations in accordance with international standards 24 Annex 1 Arab Republic of Egypt Terms of Reference7 Egyptian National Postal Organization Financial Investments and Asset Management Background The Egyptian National Postal Organization (ENPO), known as Egypt Post, is responsible for the management and development of postal services, as well as for a national savings scheme. The organization was established in 1865 and now operates under the Postal Sector Law of 1970 and the Independent Economic Organization Law of 1982. Egypt Post provides services to Egypt‟s population of 73 million located in 218 cities and 4,500 villages. Egypt Post has about 47,000 employees, 3,600 offices (and 6,500 licensed postal agents), 120 production centers, and 1,300 vehicles. Its assets are worth EP 30 billion, while annual revenue is about EP 2.3 billion. A commercial entity with management autonomy, ENPO is primarily a provider of basic financial services. Other services are mail (regular and express), parcels and government services. Postal financial services, with three main business lines (savings, payments and giro services) and 15 million savings accounts, generate around 50-60 percent of ENPO‟s total revenue, and occupy an estimated 15 percent of ENPO‟s staff. Funds are channeled into the National Investment Bank (NIB)8. In 2006, a government decision allowed ENPO to directly manage new savings (the stock of deposits remains with NIB), but this was reverted to the original NIB‟s scheme in 2007. Overall postal financial services are operated with limited management and information systems, and no clearly-defined marketing and management targets. Pilot projects are underway to provide computerized services linked with cashless payment instruments (smart cards, ATMs, EFT, POS). Postal savings are growing at a fast pace. According to the Central Bank, postal savings deposits increased by 325 percent between 2000 and 2006 (at EP 45 billion), while total domestic savings increased only by 120 percent (Table 1). 7 Those TORs were originally agreed in February 2007, but as the mission proceeded in March 2008, ENPO suggested to focus on the issues stated in the Background section of this report, p.4. 8 NIB is a fund under the Ministry of the Economy that finances public infrastructure and social security Asset management 25 Table 1: Savings trends in Egypt, 2000-2006 (Source: Central Bank) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 %total %total %total %total %total %total %total Savings with the banking system 205534 81% 231425 80% 268923 80% 317050 80% 357305 80% 404199 81% 451082 81% n/n-1 % 12.6% 16.2% 17.9% 12.7% 13.1% 11.6% Net sales of investment certificates 39007 15% 43966 15% 49008 15% 55218 14% 60178 13% 58485 12% 63697 11% 12.7% 11.5% 12.7% 9.0% -2.8% 8.9% Post office savings deposits 10670 4% 13727 5% 17720 5% 22800 6% 28404 6% 35506 7% 45450 8% 28.7% 29.1% 28.7% 24.6% 25.0% 28.0% TOTAL 255211 289118 335651 395068 445887 498190 560229 13.3% 16.1% 17.7% 12.9% 11.7% 12.5% Objective of the assignment The objective of this assignment is to provide support to ENPO with regard to the investment part of its business, with a view to helping it define an investment strategy in order to maximize return within an adapted governance framework, while building internal capacity with some knowledge transfer. Scope of work The Consultant will analyze the current financial management systems of Egypt Post in terms of fund investment portfolios, as well as profitability by product. The Consultant will assess the robustness of the governance framework compared to international best practice and Egyptian regulations. The Consultant will provide recommendations as to how the current framework should be improved. After analyzing the various investment options available in different investment channels, including the financial market places, the Consultant will propose, in view of the legal and regulatory framework that applies to Egypt Post, an investment strategy that may combine different levels, as well as different partners. The Consultant will provide options based on risks and returns. The Consultant will prepare a documented report with a view to share knowledge with Egypt Post. A presentation of the outcome of the analysis and recommendations will be organized with relevant counterparts. Timeline, budget, organization In the initial stage, the Consultant will do desk work on Egypt financial markets and systems, while Egypt Post will transmit relevant and updated information. The Consultant may call for additional documentation in order to complete this first stage. 26 Then the Consultant review of international practice by postal banks (duration: one week). In a second stage, the Consultant will travel to Cairo to meet with Egypt Post‟s managers, visit the financial markets, and gather all other additional information in the field in order to refine the first-stage analysis. A presentation of its recommendations will be organized. Based on the final discussion with relevant counterparts, the Consultant will finalize its report (at the end of two weeks). Consultant profile The Consultant will be a financial expert with a minimum of 10 years‟ experience in the field of investment and asset management with an international exposure. Experience in Egypt will be a plus. The consultant should be a bona fide Consultant from a AAA firm. 27 Annex 2 The chart below was shared by ENPO last March 2008, describing the target organization for the back office, 28