FUTURE AMMAN POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE THREE STRATEGIES TOWARD CLIMATE-SMART SPATIAL TRANSFORMATION FUTURE AMMAN POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE THREE STRATEGIES TOWARD CLIMATE-SMART SPATIAL TRANSFORMATION © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 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The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If you wish to reuse a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that reuse and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; email: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover photo: Ecosistema Urbano Cover design: Ecosistema Urbano CONTENTS Figures and Tables i Forewordiii Acknowledgmentsiv Abbreviationsvii 1. OVERVIEW: AMMAN AT A CROSSROAD 1 2. KEY FINDINGS: CHALLENGES, OPPORTUNITIES, AND PATHWAYS 9 Urban Planning Legislative Framework 10 Connectivity and Land Use 14 Neighborhood Disparities 16 Land Value Capture 22 Private Sector Participation in Urban Development 26 Delegated Service Delivery and Public Asset Management 29 Municipal Spatial Data Infrastructure 30 3. A THREE-PRONGED APPROACH TOWARD SPATIAL TRANSFORMATION  33 Strategy 1: Improve spatial planning and integrate across sectors 34 Support citywide integrated urban planning 34 Target neighborhood livability and inclusion 35 Deepen evidence-based policymaking with digital and geospatial tools 35 Strategy 2: Prioritize key reforms and investments within limited resources and a small window of opportunity  37 Undertake critical foundational urban planning legislative and vacant land reforms 37 Prioritize investments for critical citywide infrastructure 38 Mobilize private sector participation 38 Strategy 3: Leverage public assets and unlock land-based financing approaches 40 Enhance public land and asset management  40 Strengthen municipal company governance for land development 40 4. CONCLUSION 47 Endnotes49 References51 Annex 1 53 f Figures and Tables Figure 1 Decrease in Percentage of Population and GDP if the Largest City was Removed in MENA Countries Figure 2 New Business Density Figure 3 Urban Growth Scenarios Toward Low-Carbon Outcomes by 2050 Figure 4 Urban Sector Challenges and Areas of Opportunity Figure 5 Spatial Growth of Amman from 1985 to 2015 Figure 6 Employment Change and Projected Floor Area Demand Over Allowable Floor Area Under Current Zoning Resulting from the Implementation of the BRT Network Figure 7 Residential Zoning Types Across Amman Figure 8 Distribution of Low-Quality Housing and Refugee Camp Areas Figure 9 Access to Education Facilities, Healthcare Facilities, Parks, and Public Spaces Figure 10 Green Areas Within Walking Distance Figure 11 Land Use Cover in Amman Figure 12 Low-Income Households Exposed to Pluvial Flooding Figure 13 Summer Surface Temperatures in Amman (2021) Figure 14a Walking Time to Nearest Stop Along Proposed BRT Line Along Al-Yarmouk Street Figure 14b Potential Public Space and Street Improvements to Improve Accessibility along Al-Yarmouk Street Figure 15 Inventory Map of Municipal Lands Across Amman and BRT Alignment Figure 16 Three Critical Strategies Table 1 Pathways for Planning Legislation Reforms Table 2 Pathways for Integrated Transport Investments and Land Use Reforms Table 3 Pathways for Enhancing LVC Table 4 Pathways for Implementing Municipal Spatial Data Infrastructure Table 5 Summary of Priority Actions and Pathways Toward Spatial Transformation Table 6 Policy Levers Across Urban Growth Scenarios i Three Strategies for Sustainable Spatial Growth This report identifies a three-pronged approach that must be considered for a more spatially integrated development: 1. Improve spatial planning and integrate across sectors: • Support city-wide integrated urban planning; • Target neighborhood livability and inclusion; and • Deepen evidence-based policymaking. 2. Prioritize key reforms and investments within limited resources and a small window of opportunity: • Undertake critical foundational urban planning and vacant land reforms; • Prioritize investments for critical citywide infrastructure; and • Mobilize private sector participation. 3. Leverage public assets and unlock land-based financing approaches: • Enhance public land and asset management; and • Strengthen municipal company governance for land development. ii Foreword Amman stands at a pivotal juncture in its development. In a region faced by multiple crises including low economic growth, high rates of unemployment—especially among women and youth, indebtedness, climate change and instability, the challenge for Amman will be to continue to propel Jordan’s economic growth and transformation while fostering inclusivity, resilience, and sustainability.   This report and background papers advocate addressing such problems with a fresh spatial and integrated perspective versus a set of sector-specific plans. When people can better access jobs and services without lengthy travel times, and when firms are located close to each other, it encourages innovation and productivity. A greener, spatially compact, and efficient urban center can be more livable, and environmentally and economically sustainable. Such a spatial lens can provide new and targeted solutions and lay out opportunities to unlock innovative financing models.   For instance, by expanding connectivity through investments in mass transit like Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems and integrating it with more dynamic land use that allows for higher density buildings, quality public spaces, and transit-oriented development—essentially bringing people to jobs and jobs to people—Amman can realize productivity gains and jobs benefits exceeding $1.8 billion per year.  Moreover, a more efficient use of land, controlled expansion, and further integration of green infrastructure could potentially yield capital expenses savings of almost $2 billion, which could then be reinvested in quality urban services. Another benefit of compact and integrated spatial growth is the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, critical to advancing toward Amman’s low-carbon targets by 2050.   The Greater Amman Municipality does not need to finance this shared vision alone. Not only can Amman use spatial planning to help unlock the $12 billion private sector investment opportunity in green infrastructure such as energy-efficient buildings and public transportation, but it must also not overlook the wealth of public land and assets the city already owns that can be leveraged to advance urban livability and city competitiveness while bringing in further revenue.  Fortunately, Amman is not starting from scratch. It can build upon existing initiatives like the city’s 2022-2026 strategy to achieve comprehensive and sustainable development and align with the Jordan Economic Modernization Vision, which calls for the creation of highly livable and inclusive communities as an enabler of Jordan’s future economic growth strategy. It can also leverage the spatial analytics conducted as part of the World Bank’s Jordan Country Climate Development Report (CCDR) to help overcome underlying urban planning constraints and yield more inclusive growth.   This report synthesizes cutting-edge methods, including the use of data and tools such as satellite imagery, cellphone data, and artificial intelligence to develop future growth scenarios and practical options that the Greater Amman Municipality can pursue. In doing so, it summarizes priority actions into three specific strategies that can be undertaken simultaneously to help achieve improved services, better infrastructure, and better outcomes for the people of Amman and Jordan.  Ousmane Dione  Vice President  Middle East and North Africa Region iii Acknowledgments This report was authored by a World Bank team led by Jon Kher Kaw (senior urban development specialist), Hogeun Park (urban specialist), and Ban Edilbi (young professional). The World Bank team who conducted research and prepared working papers for the report included: Nancy Lozano Gracia (global co-lead for territorial and spatial development and lead economist), Lina Abdallah, Zheng Judy Jia, Jon Kher Kaw (senior urban development specialists), Steven Rubinyi (senior disaster risk management specialist), Jad Mazahreh (senior financial management specialist), Mira Morad (senior transport specialist), Hogeun Park (urban specialist), Ross Eisenberg (disaster risk management specialist), Tatjana Karina Kleineberg, Sally Beth Murray (economists), Yanchao Li (energy specialist), Ban Edilbi (young professional), Myriam Ababsa, Graham Colclough, Pol Nadal Cros, Matthew Glasser, Olga Kaganova, Isaac Kim, Rui Su, Waad Tammaa, and Yulu Tang (consultants). This report also builds on the joint World Bank-International Finance Corporation (IFC) Smart and Green Amman engagement led by Jon Kher Kaw, Zheng Judy Jia (senior urban development specialists), Youngki Hong (operations officer, IFC), and Lisa Da Silva (principal investment officer, IFC). The engagement received support from the World Bank’s Global Smart City Partnership Program (GSCP). Eparque Urban Strategies provided supplementary research, synthesized the existing papers, and produced the final report. The team included: Rana Amirtahmasebi, Maria Alejandra Perez, Sera Tolgay, and Merve Ozgur. The spatial low-carbon growth scenarios model for Amman was developed jointly with consultants from CAPSUS: Ricardo Ochoa, Antares Velázquez, Dinorah León, Jorge Márquez, Paulina Ocampo, and Socorro Román. The urban climate risk analysis was conducted under the World Bank’s City Resilience Program (CRP), and supported by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). Spatial analytics presented in this report benefitted from the collaboration with the Microsoft AI for Good Research Lab. The team included: Caleb Robinson, Anthony Ortiz, Tina Sederholm, Rahul Dodhia, and Juan M. Lavisa Ferres. The report also benefitted from the partnership with the European Space Agency (ESA) under the Global Development Assistance (GDA) program, supported by GAF AG, and comprising of a consortium from GISAT, the Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT), and German Aerospace Center (DLR). The team included: Tomáš Soukup, Jan Kolomaznik (GISAT), Ernst Gebetsroither, Anna Kozlowska, and Klaus Steinnocher (AIT). The assessment of Amman’s urban planning legislative framework was conducted with the support from Pegasys. The legal team included: Stephen Berrisford, Christian Alexander, and Vivienne Jonker. iv Identification of potential neighborhoods for transit-oriented development, and urban design proposals were carried out by Ecosistema Urbano. The urban design team included: Jose Luis Vallejo, Belinda Tato, Marco Rizzetto, Elena Castillo, Jorge Izquierdo Cubero, Vicky Vlachodimou, Lily Liebes, Andrea Ramírez, and Julia Casado. A municipal spatial data infrastructure assessment was carried out by CAPSUS. The team included: Guillermo Velasco, Paul Cota, Denisse Larracilla, and Maha Tarawneh. The team was fortunate to receive advice and guidance from the following peer reviewers at various points in the report preparation process: Nancy Lozano- Gracia, Mark Roberts (global co-leads for territorial and spatial development and lead economists), Joanna Mclean Masic (global lead for sustainable infrastructure and lead urban specialist), Sateh Chafic El-Arnaout, Ellen Hamilton (lead urban development specialists), Monali Ranade (senior energy specialist), Carli Venter, Fuad Malkawi (senior urban development specialists), Clotilde V. Minster (transport specialist), and Abeer Kamal Shalan (senior operations officer, IFC). The report also benefitted from external peer reviewers, Victoria Delbridge (head of Cities that Work) and Camilla Sacchetto (Jordan senior country economist) from the International Growth Centre. The work was conducted under the general guidance of Meskerem Brhane (regional director for sustainable development, MENA), Jean-Christophe Carret (country director, MENA), Holly Welborn Benner (resident representative, Jordan), Jaafar Sadok Friaa (former practice manager, urban, resilience and land, MENA), and Catherine Signe Tovey (practice manager, urban, resilience and land, MENA). This report received support from Victoria Ahlonkoba Bruce-Goga, Thao Phuong Tuong (senior program assistants) and Randy Rizk (program assistant). The authors are also deeply thankful to His Excellency, the Mayor of Amman, Dr. Yousef Shawarbeh and his staff from the Greater Amman Municipality, the Amman Vision Investment and Development company, the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation, and private-sector experts in Amman who supported and contributed inputs to this report. The urban planning legislative review was funded by the City Climate Finance Gap Fund, a Multi Donor Trust Fund with support from the German Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), the German Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK), and the Luxembourg Ministry of The Environment, Climate and Sustainable Development. The municipal spatial data infrastructure assessment received funding support from the City Planning Lab, under the Sustainable Urban and Regional Development (SURGE) umbrella program supported by the Swiss Confederation State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). The development of neighborhood urban design concepts received funding support from the Quality Infrastructure Investment (QII) partnership program. v vi Abbreviations AVID Amman Vision Investment and Development AVT Amman Vision Transport BAU Business As Usual BRT Bus Rapid Transit CCDR Country Climate Development Report ESCO Energy Service Company FAR Floor Area Ratio GAM Greater Amman Municipality GHG Greenhouse Gas HUDC Housing and Urban Development Corporation IFC International Finance Corporation JGBC Jordan Green Building Council JMRC Jordan Mortgage Refinance Company LVC Land Value Capture MEMR Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources MENA Middle East and North Africa MODEE Ministry of Digital Economy and Entrepreneurship MOE Ministry of Environment MOF Ministry of Finance MOPWH Ministry of Public Works and Housing MOT Ministry of Transport MSDI Municipal Spatial Data Infrastructure NDC Nationally Determined Contribution OSR Own-Source Revenue POPS Privately Owned Public Spaces PPP Public Private Partnership TOD Transit-Oriented Development vii 1. OVERVIEW AMMAN AT A CROSSROAD Amman has a unique However, Amman’s success will depend on how well it overcomes its key constraints to potential to realize the full inclusive growth. These include: benefits of urbanization • Rapid population growth and and further contribute to unprecedented refugee influx, leading Jordan’s economic growth to increased demand for urban services. and transformation, inclusive In Amman, the urban built-up area and population grew significantly by 71 development, resilience, and percent and 114 percent, respectively, sustainability. between 1990 and 2015 3 . Almost a third of Jordan’s population are non-Jordanians Amman is Jordan’s main driver of growth, and about 30 percent of all registered accounting for an outsized share of about Syrian refugees reside in Amman4 60 percent of the national GDP and 40 (UNHCR 2024). This influx of refugees percent of Jordan’s population, and 55 since 2013, coupled with the increase in percent of the country’s total employment Jordan’s population in urban areas, has (see Figure 1). Jordan’s economic activity put significant pressure on Amman’s and population are highly concentrated in already constrained municipal finance, Amman, compared with other countries service delivery, and growth patterns. in Middle East and North Africa (MENA), • Fragmented spatial growth and and globally. Located at the crossroads of inadequate distribution of urban services. trade routes, Amman is home to diverse Urbanization in Jordan is accompanied communities, cultures, and industrial and by spatial fragmentation. It is estimated commercial activities. that 78 percent of Amman’s urban Amman is a regional champion in green built-up area is formed through urban growth, climate action, and smart city leapfrogging and extension5 partly agendas. The city has developed a series within the 400 km2 zoned areas created of comprehensive sectoral strategies and in 1987 (Ababsa and Abu Hussein plans1 to reach its development goals. It 2020), contributing to inefficient urban has also made large strides towards its forms and congestion that put pressure climate action plan and is building a future on infrastructure, increasing service digital economy. As a member of the 100 delivery costs, and constraining the Resilient Cities global network and C402, city’s walkability potential. This fact also the city of Amman has also set several creates spatial disparities, poorer access ambitious goals, such as becoming a carbon to jobs, dampens productivity, lengthens emissions-neutral city by 2050—one of the commuting distances and time, and few, if not the only city in the MENA region contributes to the loss of agricultural land to set this target. In 2019, Amman became and a higher carbon footprint. the first Arab city with a climate action plan (GAM 2019). THE NEW AMMAN: POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE 2 • Constrained access to regional deficits, poor access to private capital, and markets, barriers to businesses, and constrained public financial management underemployment. Amman exhibits low that prevent GAM from financing critical firm-entry rates, given the region’s level investments. This situation has been of urbanization (see Figure 2). Jordan’s further exacerbated over the years by youth unemployment is staggering at 39.3 the impact of COVID-19 on the economy. percent (Department of Statistics 2022), Under these conditions, Amman is not in above the region’s youth unemployment a creditworthy position to access private at 25.9 percent (2021) (World Bank 2020). capital for infrastructure investments. A World Bank analysis suggests that In the long run, the need for climate-smart Amman’s GDP per capita (2015) could urban planning is critical, as climate-related have been 40 percent higher6 if it had shocks are poised to impact economic benefited from access to regional markets growth and quality of life. Amman’s future and growth spillover effects like those in is challenged by climate change, natural East Asia—cities that had transformed disasters, and man-made shocks, exposing through urbanization in the past decades. populations and assets to high risks. In the next two decades, about 300 Extreme precipitation patterns will likely million young people from the MENA cause more flash floods, droughts, and region are poised to join the workforce landslides in the future (Su and others looking for quality jobs. Amman’s ability 2022). Amman is also experiencing extreme to remain competitive and attract talent urban heat, exceeding 40 degrees Celsius, has become critical. which could negatively impact health • Limited ability to finance and invest in and productivity as there is a clear link infrastructure, services, and sustainable between urban land cover, increase in growth. The financial position of stormwater runoff, and the degree of heat Greater Amman Municipality (GAM) is intensification. Thus, sustainable urban characterized by high debt, operating land-use planning, as well as resilient, 0% -20% -40% -60% Figure 1: Decrease in Percentage of Population and GDP if the Largest City Was Removed in MENA Countries Source: World Bank calculations. 3 OVERVIEW: AMMAN AT A CROSSROAD 30 All countries (new registiraions per 1,000 people ages 15-64) MENA 20 New Business Density 10 0 20 40 60 80 100 Urbanization Rate (percent) Figure 2: New Business Density Source: Lall and others 2023. climate-smart infrastructure, are critical in growth strategies 8 to improve connectivity mitigating climate risks, including urban and manage urban expansion, a strong flooding- and heat-related risks.  cost-benefit rationale exists for adopting more aggressive targets incorporating Amman is at a stage of development policy levers that are aligned with Jordan’s where sector-specific approaches alone Nationally Determined Contribution can only achieve so much, and it must (NDC). Managing urban expansion better now embark on a more spatially integrated in Amman can potentially reduce energy strategy to accelerate toward its vision. consumption and GHG emissions by 27 Analyses suggest that limiting unplanned percent and 41 percent, respectively, as well spatial growth is one of the most cost- as reduce infrastructure investment and effective pathways toward Amman’s low- municipal services costs by up to 25 percent carbon ambitions (Kaw and others 2022a). (see ambitious scenario in Figure 3). Coupled with adopting integrated sector policies, pivoting from gray towards green Cities are more likely to control sprawl infrastructure 7, and bolstered by urban when property rights are clear, land values planning, Amman can achieve multiple are transparent, land use and zoning are wins—through cost-efficiencies, reduction responsive to business needs and local in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, and preferences, and the enabling environment improving city livability and resilience. encourages durable investment in infrastructure—especially early investment, Urban growth scenarios analysis for Amman informed by forward-thinking urban (Kaw and others 2022a) suggests that while plans (Figure 4 summarizes Amman’s key Amman has adopted a series of spatial challenges and opportunities). THE NEW AMMAN: POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE 4 Implementing a spatially focused approach • First, Amman can leverage spatial will require making political decisions and planning to create synergies across making tradeoffs such as: different sectors to accelerate toward • Mustering political will and support for its city vision and ambitions. This key reforms such as urban planning would help Amman address its legislation and property taxes at the local interconnected challenges, which require and national levels. Modernizing urban a comprehensive, synergistic approach planning systems will also entail a number across sectors. of non-legislative reforms. • The second strategy prioritizes critical • Mobilizing the necessary public or private foundational institutional reforms, critical resources in a fiscally constrained infrastructure investments, and private environment to finance capital- sector models as entry points. Alongside intensive mobility improvements such legal reforms to modernize Amman’s as public transportation (i.e., bus rapid urban planning framework, enabling transit systems) and other strategic stronger intergovernmental relationships, developments that are a critical part of local planning powers, and well- providing access to jobs and services. equipped local government institutions are essential. Amman can prioritize • Managing spatial equity in an already investments in crucial infrastructure segregated built environment, addressing (including connectivity and accessibility) the affordable housing deficit, and and take action on immediate low-cost protecting vulnerable neighborhoods. GAM and high-impact opportunities (greening can adopt an inclusive approach to urban and public space provision). Mobilizing development that considers demographic private sector participation in Amman’s dynamics and social challenges. urban development is also critical. Achieving Amman’s most ambitious • The third strategy addresses the need objectives—such as those related to its to mobilize local resources by unlocking carbon-neutral targets—will be costly9 , and leveraging public land and property and will demand innovative solutions. The assets, and developing sustainable solutions include but are not limited to land-based financing models. GAM can new financing mechanisms, scaling up strategically optimize Land Value Capture private sector participation, and investing in (LVC) from its extensive real estate complementary combinations of policy levers portfolio. Strengthening governance, to realize co-benefits and achieve deep calibrating land development policies, synergies (see net-zero scenario in Figure 3). coordinating with the municipality on service delivery mandates, and enhancing This report outlines three strategies and the institutional arrangement between several accompanying sector-specific GAM and its delegated services and pathways to reaching cross-sector and asset management municipal companies spatial integration. These strategies should such as Amman Vision and Investment be high-priority policy agendas for Amman, Development (AVID) are key steps. to avoid being locked into an efficient urban form that is hard to reverse: 5 OVERVIEW: AMMAN AT A CROSSROAD Figure 3: Urban Growth Scenarios Toward Low-Carbon Outcomes by 2050 Pathway 2: Pathway 3: Urban growth Pathway 1: BaU Ambitious Net zero scenarios Plan scenario scenario scenario Develop policy Adopt more levers to ambitious achieve net- targets within zero emissions A business- Continue the GAM’s target, as-usual (BaU) GAM’s current current plans, renewable scenario based plans for urban through energy, on historical development. integrated green infrastructure, trends. infrastructure, and compact and compact spatial growth spatial growth. with infill development. Capital investment costs (US$ million by 2050) Municipal services costs (US$ million/ annum) Urban expansion (% by 2050) GHG emissions (kgCO2eq/capita/ 2,826 2,479 1,452 17 annum) Energy use (MJ/ 13,603 11,792 8,604 6,802 capita/annum) Source: Kaw and others 2022a. Note: The policy lever assumptions used for each scenario are summarized in Table 6 of Annex 1. THE NEW AMMAN: POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE 6 Figure 4: Urban Sector Challenges and Areas of Opportunity GROWTH Low firm entry rates for the level of urbanization. 300 million young people in MENA will join 40% of 55% of jobs the workforce within the Jordan’s are in Amman, next 2 decades. population accounting for 60% Amman can position live in Amman. of the GDP. itself competitively within the region to 30% of 1/2 of youth attract talent and firms. refugees are unemployed in live in Amman. Jordan (in 2021). ACCESS TO SERVICES AND JOBS Less than 1/2 Residents can only reach of Amman’s 18% of total jobs in metro area under residents can 1 hour, using public 20 minutes walking access services transport and walking. within walking distance. 49 % live close to a school >7% city productivity gains anticipated through live close to a agglomeration economies, 37 % health facility + from integrated transport (BRT) infrastructure investments and land use live close to 17 % a park reforms. VULNERABLE NEIGHBORHOODS West Amman East Amman Poor neighborhoods 1/2 of households has high travel 2x distance exposed to flooding are proportion of 4 km to work low-income and may of poor. compared to 2km find it hard to recover. from affluent areas. Average summer surface temperatures As much As much large opportunity for high- has gone up by 1.8 °C as -9ºC as +11ºC but unevenly​. impact, cost-effective neighborhood improvements like Average green inclusive urban design, public spaces (ha) As high As low within walking spaces, and nature-based solution. as >13 ha as <2 ha distance. 7 OVERVIEW: AMMAN AT A CROSSROAD SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT 78% of Amman’s spatial growth is formed through leapfrogging and extension, adding to congestion, strain on services, costs, and GHG emissions. Compact spatial growth and integrated sector solutions, moving from gray to green infrastructure, can achieve the following by 2050: lower infrastructure costs by 25%; lower services costs by 16%; and lower GHG emissions by 41%. CITY FINANCE & ASSET GREEN GROWTH MANAGEMENT Only 16 building projects certified >30% of revenues green over last decade. Opportunity to create can be unlocked awareness of business case and incentivize through better asset Potential adoption of green building standards. management of public Revenues land and properties. Others (water, Green Potential for waste, energy) Buildings increased OSR US$ 1b US$ 4b through enhanced fiscal instruments (taxes, fees, Revenues ↑​ etc.). Expenditures ↑​ US$ 12 Constrained fiscal space billion ​ and 40% increase in Wages debt obligations for GAM investment in past 4 years since the opportunity pandemic.​ in Amman by 2030​ Strengthened planning Capital instruments can reduce Expenditure reliance on public expenditure through Electric Public private sector vehicles Transport Expropriation participation models US$ 3b US$ 4b (developer exactions, Others land readjustment, etc.). THE NEW AMMAN: POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE 8 2. KEY FINDINGS CHALLENGES, OPPORTUNITIES, AND PATHWAYS This section discusses the challenges and opportunities identified by the research that can help Amman develop a more spatially- integrated urban development. Within selected sections, it also describes various pathways that policymakers can implement either individually or in combination. These pathways are presented from the simplest to implement to more complex ones with greater potential impact—recognizing the need to factor in practical considerations, such as fiscal space constraints, willingness to undertake reforms, and required timeframe. Urban Planning Legislative Framework Amman’s population has quadrupled in the Lamson-Hall, and Hiari 2021), one of the past three decades, reaching 4 million in main reasons is an out-of-date urban 2022, with projections estimating 4.8 million planning legislative framework that by 2030—an increase equivalent to the size has limited Amman’s overall ability to of an entire mid-sized secondary city in respond adequately to land use needs Jordan (UN-Habitat 2022). and has diminished growth and inclusion outcomes. GAM is also unable to capture This increase in population necessitates a fair share of benefits through LVC from urgent attention to its growth trajectory and public infrastructure investments. Unclear the associated demand for infrastructure and unnecessary legal requirements in and services. Ideally, urban expansion and land development and redevelopment are densification should be planned in advance hindering planning processes that are with infrastructure and public spaces, already slow and prone to legal challenges ensuring availability of land for housing and in the courts (Berrisford and others 2023). connected to jobs. However, Amman’s urban growth has been fragmented. An estimated GAM critically needs the right urban 78 percent of Amman’s urban built-up planning tools and systems to properly area has been formed through urban guide new development and recoup leapfrogging and extension (see Figure 5), sufficient revenues to reinvest in meeting contributing to congestion and increased the needs of residents and businesses. service delivery costs. This can result in A comprehensive assessment of reduced access to jobs, deepening spatial GAM’s current laws has identified a inequality, dampening of productivity and series of legislative and non-legislative agglomeration economies, contributing to recommendations that can be undertaken the loss of agricultural land and biodiversity, in the short and medium terms (see Table 1), and a larger carbon footprint. at the GAM and national levels to modernize Amman’s urban planning legislation While there have been many indications (Berrisford and others 2023). These reforms that much of this fragmentation is due are timely and of a high priority but will to the limited ability of the master plan require strong political will to undertake. to be effectively implemented (Malkawi, THE NEW AMMAN: POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE 10 km Figure 5: Spatial Growth of Amman from 1985 to 2015 11 GHSL Data Package 2022 (See Schiavina and others 2022). Source: Table 1: Pathways for Planning Legislation Reforms Pathway 1: Improve Pathway options Pathway 2: Amend Pathway 3: Develop implementation and reform existing or proposed new planning without planning actions planning legislation legislation legislation changes LVC Improve land valuation, Provide legal authority Authorize new provisions public accounting, levy for existing practice of for selected LVC and tax collection, land assessing “compensation instruments, including use regulation and fees”. land readjustment. enforcement. Revise and/or Focus on the use of reintroduce improved betterment levies. version of development impact fees betterment Clarify calculations of levies. LVC revenues and levies. Planning Improve evidence-based In Draft Regulations: Authorize comprehensive planning with data and planning legislation from Make legislative planning planning processes. GAM to replace 1966 principles explicit. Zoning Law. Make plans enforceable by connecting with administrative processes and decisions. Clarify language on hierarchy of plans and planning tools. Public Enhance public Incorporate more Require environmental participation, consultation for plan proactive public review of planning safeguards development. consultation in the Draft decisions as part of new Regulations. planning framework. Establish policies for architectural heritage Reintroduce local preservation. representation on land use in the Draft Regulations. Reference existing laws on environmental and cultural safeguards in the Draft Regulations. Institutions, Develop a strategy for Pass Draft Regulations Authorize new governance, and capacity building. to empower GAM under comprehensive capacity 2021 GAM Law. institutional hierarchy to replace 1966 Zoning Law hierarchy. Source: Based on Berrisford and others 2022. THE NEW AMMAN: POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE 12 Projected Floor Area Demand Over Areas with Projected Employment Change (%) Maximum Allowed by Zoning (Ratio) ratios above 1.0 indicate that the BRT Lines demand for floor area is above km zoning limits. Figure 6: Employment Change and Projected Floor Area Demand Over Allowable Floor Area Under Current Zoning Resulting from the Implementation of the BRT Network Source: Kleineberg and others 2022. Table 2: Pathways for Integrated Transport Investments and Land Use Reforms Aggregate Pathway 1: BRT Phase 1 Pathway 2: Extend BRT network effects on city infrastructure through Phase 2 productivity Spatial impact Promotes densification and welfare Encourages additional densification in already dense locations. and welfare to the south, closer to neighborhoods that are relatively poorer. Manufacturing +4.37% +7.60% Non-tradable +4.35% +7.24% services Tradable services +4.96% +7.61% Source: Based on Kleineberg and others 2022. 13 KEY FINDINGS: CHALLENGES, OPPORTUNITIES, AND PATHWAYS Connectivity and Land Use Amman can benefit significantly from Analysis using computable spatial general agglomeration economies by investing equilibrium models suggests that Amman in infrastructure supporting connectivity, can reverse this trend by prioritizing complemented by more market-responsive mass transit infrastructure coupled with land use to reap agglomeration benefits— more flexible land use controls to cater to when workers are able to access jobs easily, denser commercial and residential uses. and when firms are able to locate in close The BRT roll-out alone could increase city proximity to each other, they encourage productivity by more than seven percent knowledge diffusion, spur innovation and are in the manufacturing and services sectors more productive and competitive. However, (Kleineberg and others 2024) (see Table 2). an inefficient city form does the opposite— The effects of new BRT lines improve the congested roads from private vehicles and connection of peripheral areas to the city inflexible land use add friction and costs center10 . It particularly benefits workers in to the matching of workers and firms, manufacturing, who also live farthest from undermining overall city productivity and the city center. provision of jobs. Complementing BRT investments with land Congestion in Amman is attributed to its reform to accommodate new demand could current land-use patterns and the demands unlock even higher gains. Land use patterns on transportation infrastructure. Traffic are expected to change as a result of the congestion losses in Amman in terms of BRT—The first phase of the BRT system delays and wasted fuel amount to JD 1.5 generally promotes densification and billion annually, or 5 percent of the total GDP welfare in already dense locations, while (Kaw and others 2022b). Private vehicles the second phase extension of the network increased from 40 to 178 cars per thousand encourages additional densification to the inhabitants between 1996 and 2008. The south. Analysis suggests that legal zoning main modes of transport are private cars (33 limits may be binding in several locations percent), followed by walking (26 percent), near the BRT that are likely to experience public transportation (between 13 and 14 increased real estate demand for both percent) and taxis (9 percent). On average, residential and commercial floorspace people in Amman can reach only 18 percent due to the new BRT system (see Figure of total jobs in under 60 minutes using public 6). Zoning reforms and Transit-Oriented transport and walking (Alam and Bagnoli Development (TOD) to allow denser, more 2023). A more efficient urban planning mixed-use, real estate development in system can do better at bringing people to these locations are expected to unlock even jobs and jobs to people. greater efficiency, output, and welfare gains through agglomeration economies and efficient spatial sorting. THE NEW AMMAN: POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE 14 Figure 7: Residential Zoning Types Across Amman Residential Zoning Categories km Source: World Bank analysis based on zoning plans for Amman. Note: There are primarily four main residential zoning categories, labeled as Residential Zones A, B, C, and D. Residential Zone A for villas and large housing, Residential Zone B lower-density, higher-end housing, and Residential Zones C and D higher-density, small housing. 15 Neighborhood Disparities An inefficient urban form can translate to • Analysis of very high-resolution satellite inequality in multiple ways—less-privileged imagery reveals the extent of low-quality communities suffer from low-quality housing buildings and urban environments across and limited services, which exacerbate their Amman (Robinson and others 2022). living conditions and limit their access to About five percent of low-quality buildings economic opportunities. are mainly in the eastern part of the city, concentrated within and beyond the Amman’s built environment is heterogeneous, boundaries of refugee camps (see Figure 8). where poor-quality neighborhoods and vulnerable populations are concentrated • Analysis using cellphone and geospatial data in some areas. Access to education, health suggests that Amman’s most vulnerable facilities, and green space differs across populations’ commuting distances to neighborhoods, reflecting income segregation. jobs are twice as long as residents of In addition to limited availability of affordable affluent neighborhoods. Origin–destination housing, one-seventh of the refugee population analysis using cell phone data suggests live in refugee camps, and the rest live in that the average commuting distance to poor-quality settlements around camps in the workplace from poor neighborhoods the central and eastern parts of the city (UN- is about 4 kilometers compared to only 2 Habitat 2022). There is a growing pressure to kilometers from affluent neighborhoods (Park maintain basic urban infrastructure and public and others, 2023). Less than 50 percent of services more equitably, as well as the need to students reside within a 20-minute walk plan for sustainable patterns of growth in areas of a kindergarten or school. More than 10 where the capacity was not originally designed percent of residents lack accessible medical to accommodate these growth levels. Some services, particularly on the city’s outskirts. findings are detailed below. Elderly people reside farther from healthcare facilities than other age groups. A quarter • A housing assessment concluded that a of Amman residents are far from any public demand-supply mismatch has resulted in a space and parks, taking more than an hour 23 percent housing vacancy rate in Amman to walk there, and another tenth of residents and a large housing deficit of more than 16.9 take more than two hours to reach parks and percent nationally. This mismatch has been public spaces (Lall, and others, 2023). Figure attributed to developers’ focus on larger units, 9 illustrates these findings. catering mainly to the wealthier segment of the population, and a shortage of land zoned • Urban land cover analysis reveals the stark for affordable housing (Hamilton and others difference in greenery between Amman’s 2018). Existing zoning for affordable housing western and eastern parts. Neighborhoods (e.g., relatively small plot size and high building located in eastern Amman generally lack coverage ratio) is mainly located in eastern the same degree of vegetation (including Amman, contributing to the spatial divide high vegetation tree clusters) as the areas between the wealthy and poor (see Figure 7). in the west (World Bank, n.d.), which could explain the uneven impact of urban heat islands experienced. Consequently, access THE NEW AMMAN: POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE 16 km Predicted Distribution of Building Quality Regular Buildings Low-Quality Buildings Refugee Camp Areas Figure 8: Distribution of Low-Quality Housing and Refugee Camp Areas Source: Robinson and others 2022. Educational facilities (K-12) Health care facilities and elderly Parks and public spaces and school-aged population population (65 and older) and total population Figure 9: Access to Education Facilities, Healthcare Facilities, Parks, and Public Spaces Source: Lall and others 2023. 17 KEY FINDINGS: CHALLENGES, OPPORTUNITIES, AND PATHWAYS to green areas (measured by green areas • Approximately 66,900 households, including within walking distance) in the east of 34,300 low-income ones, are potentially Amman is less than half compared to the exposed to pluvial flooding. While exposure neighborhoods in the west (see Figure 10). For is similar across income tiers, the city center example, in a residential neighborhood with has a higher concentration of at-risk low- similar built-up density, Abdoun Al Shamali’s income households, less equipped to handle green areas within walking distance are 14.1 flood events than high-income families (Su ha, in contrast to Raghadan’s 4.6 hectares. and others 2022) (see Figure 12). Amman’s current built-up area is surrounded • Urban heat island effects in Amman are by natural vegetation, forests, crop and arable also a challenge where the average surface lands. Unplanned urban expansion is likely to temperature in the urban center is high, further deplete these valuable areas, further exceeding 33 degrees Celsius. Within a impacting access to greenery, biodiversity, short span of eight years, the average and food systems (see Figure 11). summer surface temperature of the entire The city faces risks from climate change, city has gone up from 45 °C in 2013 to 46.8 natural disasters, and man-made shocks, degrees in 2021. To complicate the matter including floods, soil erosion, urban heat further, the heat intensification is highly islands, and drought. Heavy rain causes uneven. Eastern Amman has seen the most flooding disrupting access to services, and dramatic temperature increases of over 11 heatwaves impact health and businesses. degrees at the upper extremes, whereas Spatial analysis suggests that these events western Amman has gotten cooler by up to impact vulnerable populations more nine degrees (see Figure 13). Still, most of disproportionately in Amman: Amman experienced noticeable temperature Green Areas (ha) within Walking Distance km Figure 10: Green Areas Within Walking Distance Source: World Bank n.d. Note: Walking distance is defined as 400m radius from green areas. THE NEW AMMAN: POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE 18 Land Use and Land Cover km Continuous residential Transportation Arable land Discontinuous high Mineral extraction Permanent density residential and dump sites crops Discontinuous medium Construction Forests density residential sites Discontinuous low Other natural Vacant lands density residential areas Discontinuous very low Urban high Bare land density residential vegetation Urban low Figure 11: Land Use Cover in Amman Commercial vegetation Water bodies 19 World Bank n.d. Source: Industrial increases, which could heighten the risk of BRT stops which could take more than 30 adverse health effects and productivity loss minutes for some. Figure 14b identifies the due to extreme heat (Su and others 2022). vast potential for green public spaces, and improvements to pedestrian connectivity Amman can benefit from a focus on which can improve walking times, safety and neighborhood scale urban design, safety, accessibility on a hilly terrain. and improving access to vulnerable neighborhoods. Not all impactful investments Nature-based solutions can be incorporated are capital intensive and low-cost, high- as small but impactful interventions in impact urban solutions such as public space, urban regeneration schemes and flood personal and traffic safety, and walkability infrastructure. They can also provide much- enhancements can significantly uplift poor- needed co-benefits by reducing urban heat quality neighborhoods (GIZ 2022) and can islands and improving overall health. There multiply the impact of accessibility to jobs and have been efforts to increase the area of services for vulnerable communities—such green spaces in Amman, but more can be as women, children, elderly, and disabled done to scale them up to reach different parts persons when they are connected with public of the city through urban design, streetscape transport and mass transit such as the BRT upgrading, and as part of development system. Figure 14a analyzes the walking incentives for green buildings and public times for residents living along Al-Yarmouk spaces. Special attention is needed on issues Street areas to reach the nearest proposed of maintenance, water scarcity, and the use of native species in Amman’s context. km Number of Low-Income Households Exposed to Pluvial Flooding Figure 12: Low-Income Households Exposed to Pluvial Flooding Source: Su and others 2022. 20 Summer Surface Temperature (2021) in degrees Celcius km Figure 13: Summer Surface Temperatures in Amman (2021) 21 Su and others 2022. Source: Land Value Capture The city grapples with financial constraints, Table 3 summarizes the application of LVC characterized by high levels of debt11 , instruments in Amman and their potential inadequate revenue streams, and an for enhancement. Quite often overlooked is uncertain road to recovery which makes the wealth of public assets, such as lands any investments in infrastructure and and property, that can offer opportunities for services severely tight. The municipality’s creating and capturing significant value and fiscal space is further constrained by the enhancing local economic development. compounding effects of the macroeconomic GAM is yet to unlock the full potential situation and the COVID-19 pandemic, weak for LVC embedded in the large stock of financial planning, ineffective collections, municipally-owned lands and property increasing wage bills, and capital spending assets that have a tremendous aptitude for on infrastructure that exceeds GAM’s land-based financing12 . This would be by far financial capacity (IMF, 2023). This challenge the most impactful measure in terms of its has forced the city to address these gaps contribution to revenue, not simply through urgently and to find new solutions to first-order impacts through the sale and use deepen own-source revenues, enhance cost of municipal land plots, but also through efficiencies, and undertake urban planning better application of urban planning and transformations that not only foster a more fiscal instruments, leading to higher taxes livable environment but also address fiscal and fees down the line. and legislative challenges. GAM owns a significant amount of valuable GAM has the autonomy and power to land and buildings (on more than 4,000 unlock LVC. GAM can do this through its parcels of land with a total area of about ownership and control of government- 16 km2, and almost 1,000 buildings valued owned assets (e.g., leasing of public at JD 2.2 billion), many of which are not property); its power to regulate private land actively used in GAM’s operations13 . Strategic uses (e.g., sale of development rights); and planning and well-considered infrastructure its power to mandate and apply fiscal tools investment could make these properties (e.g., betterment charges, property taxes more valuable and play a key role in GAM’s etc.) (Kaganova, Kaw, and Peteri 2023). financial and economic recovery. If GAM THE NEW AMMAN: POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE 22 Table 3: Pathways for Enhancing LVC Assessment of current application Current share of OSR (2020), and of LVC in Amman potential enhancements Pathway 1: Land/facility leases or concessions. 0.1%. Can increase significantly through Enhance asset better utilization of large inventory of management public lands and properties. of municipal- owned land and Naming rights contracts. Not used. property. PPPs. Small-scale. Intensification of land use on public Can lead to more efficient use, lands. Not used. maintenance and freeing up public land and property for other uses. Land sales. For leftover parcels (fadalat). 2.7% Air rights contracts. From advertising 3.0% and billboards. Pathway 2: Sale of development rights or density Can reduce government funding of Strengthen bonuses. Along BRT corridors in public infrastructure, incentivize green land use monetary form, citywide in exchange for buildings. regulations and adoption of green building standards. instruments. Land conversion fee. For converting un- zoned to zoned lands and rezoning. Land readjustment. Used, but Can reduce cost of expropriation. complicated and slow for active use. Pathway 3: Real estate capital gains tax. Not used. Update and unlock fiscal Special assessment district. Not used. tools. Real estate transfer tax. As central government revenue. Developer charges/exactions. Both 4.8%. Can reduce government funding monetary and in-kind, however, the of public infrastructure. monetary part is not used in practice and replaced by ad hoc “compensation fee”. Also includes building permit fees. Property tax. Outdated tax regime, with 38.2%. Can expand OSR through land values generally below market rate. updated valuation and reforms. Vacant zoned lands are taxed at very low subsidized rates. Source: Authors’ assessment, based on framework by Kaganova, Kaw, Peteri 2024, and findings from Kaganova, Kaw and Ababsa 2022, and Haas and Kriticos 2019. 23 were able to maximize municipal lands at were owned, 21.2 percent rented and 25.9 a capitalization rate of 3.5 to 5 percent14 percent vacant. Vacant land is subject to a yearly through better urban planning, and separate legacy tax regime with an effective better public land and asset management tax rate of only 0.04 percent of assessed that respond to both near-term demand and rental value, due to an underassessment of long-term city needs, it could potentially market value of the property, a favorable de- unlock up to JD 100 million per year (more capitalization rate, and a favorable tax rate than a third of GAM’s revenues in 2022 of (USAID, 2010). A cost-free hold on vacant JD 240 million) 15 . This calculation has yet to land contributes to inefficient use of land factor in the increase in land values from and an urgent review and fiscal policies to investments in public infrastructure such as recalibrate the legacy tax rates are due. public spaces and facilities, parks, and public However, GAM can modernize its urban transportation, and so on (see Figure 15). planning legislation to strengthen the Another area that needs urgent attention is foundations for the application of LVC the high share of vacant private lands within instruments. Recent reforms have put in zoned areas (many of which are speculative place amendments to LVC mechanisms in nature), which add to the inefficient use to address some of the challenges from of urban land (Corsi and Selod 2023). In the current laws, but there is still room for 2010, 52.8 percent of Amman land parcels further improvements. THE NEW AMMAN: POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE 24 km Walking Time (mins) Figure 14a: Walking Time to Nearest Stop Along Proposed BRT Line Along Al-Yarmouk Street Source: Vallejo and others 2024. km Locations of Proposed Public Space Improvements Figure 14b: Potential Public Space and Street Improvements to Improve Accessibility along Al-Yarmouk Street Source: Vallejo and others 2024. 25 KEY FINDINGS: CHALLENGES, OPPORTUNITIES, AND PATHWAYS Private Sector Participation in Urban Development The International Finance Corporation (ESCOs) to create specialized financial (IFC) has estimated climate investment products for green buildings. Developing opportunities of about US$12 billion, with practical tools and expertise for green the largest opportunities in the public building implementation is also crucial to transport (US$4 billion) and green buildings ensuring incentives translate into action and (US$4 billion) sectors. Renewable energy, promoting climate-responsive development. electric vehicles, urban water, and waste In addition, GAM can play a significant sectors constitute the remaining US$4 role in the deployment of incentives and billion (IFC 2018). Many of these sectors are regulations to support the adoption of green within the influence of GAM. A key pillar of buildings. These interventions could include GAM’s resilience strategy is to work through incentivizing or regulating Floor-Area Ratio Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) across (FAR) bonuses around new TOD areas. sectors, building a network of private sector Through these instruments, GAM can also actors, including foreign companies, to influence new private sector developments address resilience needs. to provide and maintain public spaces There is an opportunity now to rejuvenate (ranging from streets, green and open Jordan’s green building program, given that space, and public buildings) or urban it is underdeveloped, despite efforts such designs that contribute to building greenery as national certification, incentives, and the or energy efficiency without funding establishment of a Green Building Council. them directly. Although some of these Amman has only 13 LEED and three EDGE instruments have been previously explored certified16 buildings, of which only four in the past, recalibrating these incentives to received development incentives for meeting meet business cases in tandem with GAM’s the requirements of the local green building overall efforts to improve urban planning program over the last decade. Three of these can be a strong entry point. buildings were government-owned buildings. For larger new private development or The sector is missing out on significant green area-wide redevelopment, several types building investment opportunities. To realize of planning instruments can be used to this potential, there is a need to simplify secure land for public spaces. These include and reduce the costs of green building developers’ exactions, land readjustment certification, align incentives with the schemes (which aim to make the land private sector’s interests, create awareness suitable for development and generate of business case, and work with financial revenues for local infrastructure), and institutions and Energy Service Companies instruments such as TOD. THE NEW AMMAN: POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE 26 km Vacant Publicly Owned BRT Lines Land by Area Figure 15: Inventory Map of Municipal Lands Across Amman and BRT Alignment Source: Authors. TOD revolves around the creation of land is Privately Owned Public Spaces compact, walkable, pedestrian-oriented, (POPS). In delivering public spaces—such mixed-use communities around high- as streets, open and green spaces, and quality transit systems. TOD generates public buildings, cities can go beyond synergies between public investment public management and funding and rely in infrastructure and ensuing private on private sector means of creating and investment in commercial development at maintaining public space assets (Kaw, and around transportation nodes. In more Lee, and Wahba, 2020). Private provision strategic TOD projects, urban planners of public spaces (and in many cases, and local authorities usually set higher neighborhood facilities such as schools) FARs surrounding these nodes to allow by developers in large-scale developments for densification, incentivize private-sector is common globally17. Each approach has provision of public amenities or adoption of its own merits and pitfalls. For example, green buildings standards, and to generate public spaces owned and managed by revenue streams that they can capture to city governments often face challenges finance infrastructure and public spaces of insufficient funding to ensure adequate (Kaw, Lee, and Wahba 2020). Such an operations and free access for the public. At approach is timely given GAM’s plans to the other end of the spectrum, POPS, while expand the BRT network, with areas around better managed in general, often fall prey transport nodes such as Sweileh BRT station to access restrictions. The Housing Bank demonstrating potential positive impact on Garden is an example of POPS implemented both land values and compact growth. in Amman, which could be replicated across the city in neighborhoods lacking public Another instrument for delivering public spaces and where the availability of public spaces without government-owned land is limited. THE NEW AMMAN: POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE 28 Delegated Service Delivery and Public Asset Management Strong governance and accountability are the year 2033. While this is a relatively small becoming increasingly relevant in MENA, figure today, this model is proof-of-concept with several cities—including Amman— for a larger potential for value capture. using new delegated models of service Because near-term site-specific private delivery and municipal land development. developments may not consider the For instance, Moroccan cities have broader public benefits and long-term successfully relied on delegated service citywide plans, ensuring that public assets providers and municipal companies to and revenue streams are managed for manage municipal public services under public purpose and fiscal risks is critical. city government contracts. Even though Global experience has demonstrated the Amman’s governance structure is a political importance of establishing clear objectives hybrid—part elected, part appointed—it when public companies are established retains a strong degree of accountability to and entrusted with valuable public assets. citizens and performance incentives (Lall It is useful to agree on and document both and others, 2023). financial and non-financial targets, such as GAM has recently professionalized service catalytic impact on neighboring properties, delivery by creating several municipally- employment creation, and contributions owned companies: AVID (2018), Amman to a more productive, efficient, and livable Vision Transport (2018) and Amman Vision city (e.g., through integration with transit for Solid Waste Management (2022) — solutions, environmental and ecological leveraging on private sector expertise to benefits). AVID can provide regular and attract private investments and enhance transparent reporting to benefit the the delivery of municipal services. These municipality and its residents. companies are now involved in managing Amman has yet to reap the full benefits public lands for development, running from municipal development companies services such as solid waste management, to improve service delivery and local and public transportation. AVID has been economic development in the city. GAM assigned some of the most valuable lands and AVID would need to strengthen their with the hope of spurring catalytic local governance and accountability structures economic development and generating in managing public land and assets and own-source revenues through land leases enhance horizontal coordination with to private developers and investors. In GAM’s urban planning department to fully recent years, AVID has successfully leverage such a model. In some sectors attracted a substantial investment totaling such as solid waste, there is a critical need JD 305 million. By leasing its lands, AVID is to address operational inefficiencies18 before projected to generate an annual own-source PPP models can be unlocked through its revenue of approximately JD 2.5 million until municipal companies. 29 KEY FINDINGS: CHALLENGES, OPPORTUNITIES, AND PATHWAYS Municipal Spatial Data Infrastructure GAM has built strong digital infrastructure critical applications such as the use of land foundations19 . GAM’s Smart City Roadmap and fiscal cadasters for asset management identifies a series of smart city investments and property tax administration. GAM projects across sectors such as mobility, recognizes the need to further develop energy, environment, public safety, and institutional capacity and scaling up the public health. The roadmap also identifies adoption of digital solutions and advanced the need for a smart city platform and tools, including the use of artificial associated key regulatory, infrastructure, intelligence, for policymaking and service funding, financing, and capacity enablers. delivery. As a priority, GAM can improve the efficiency of the use and accessibility While GAM has successfully launched of its rich and extensive data it already about 160 new e-services, it will further possesses and undertake critical reforms benefit from advancing its Municipal to mainstream the use of spatial data for Spatial Data Infrastructure (MSDI) that are policymaking and service delivery. Table foundational in supporting integrated urban 4 summarizes these pathways based on a and transport planning, as well as other recently conducted MSDI assessment. THE NEW AMMAN: POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE 30 Table 4: Pathways for Implementing Municipal Spatial Data Infrastructure Pathway 2: Implement Pathway 1: Improve efficiency of MSDI enablers reforms to enhance MSDI current processes implementation Institutional Publish data governance protocols Develop a data governance policy arrangements. for data sharing with internal aligned with national instruments Strengthen policies departments and external entities. for data management, and and streamline classification. Develop and publish internal processes for guidelines, endorsed by the Mayor’s Implement an open data policy internal and office, to enable internal and aligned with national policies for external data external data access. data classification, management, sharing. and sharing. People. Strengthen Target capacity building for GIS Formalize a capacity building awareness and analysis and promote spatial data program, and KPIs for monitoring skillsets for awareness. and evaluating results. geospatial data applications. Data. Strengthen Publish clear guidelines on data Develop a spatial data management data quality standards to ensure consistent framework, as part of the data mechanisms and implementation of spatial data governance policy proposal. close the gap on quality requirements across access and use of departments. extensive spatial Publish a list of available data, and datasets. develop guidelines related to data accessibility. Systems. Develop Implement a pilot program with Migrate to a more cost-effective options for open- open-source software to evaluate open-source software ecosystem source or more its cost-effectiveness and benefits for data management and analysis, cost-effective compared to proprietary solutions. adapted and integrated with existing GIS software infrastructure. Establish a centralized data access platforms and hub with a comprehensive inventory Launch an integrated and open data ICT infrastructure of spatial and non-spatial data, and portal to streamline data access to integrate data clear access guidelines. and facilitate centralized storage, repositories sharing, and analysis. and broaden Implement a pilot program to accessibility. migrate data to a cloud storage Develop a systematic transition solution. of data repositories from in-place storage to cloud storage solutions. Source: Kaw and others 2024. 31 KEY FINDINGS: CHALLENGES, OPPORTUNITIES, AND PATHWAYS 3. A THREE-PRONGED APPROACH TOWARD SPATIAL TRANSFORMATION How can Amman avoid locking into an unsustainable and inefficient urban form? These three strategies prioritize critical actions that Amman can undertake toward a spatially integrated low-carbon, resilient urban development (Table 5 and Figure 16 summarize the priority actions for each strategy). Strategy 1: Improve spatial planning and integrate across sectors Applying a spatial lens across different scales—city and neighborhood levels, and across different sectors is critical to reaping the dividends from urbanization. A spatial strategy should address the following: Support citywide integrated urban dynamic land use planning, appropriate planning zoning laws, development controls, and a functional land and property markets Pivot from individual sector strategies can lead to neighborhoods and private toward a comprehensive and long-term land parcels being redeveloped through approach that integrates across different LVC mechanisms that include incentives sectors and urban systems. Undertake or regulations for green buildings. investments and integrated policy Public investments in non-motorized actions across complementary sectors, transportation, walkability and cycling, including urban planning, energy, building, and pedestrian-friendly access are transportation, and urban services. Potential needed to unlock the full potential of TOD areas for achieving deep synergies include: and co-benefits such as better health • Low-carbon spatial planning, green outcomes, improved livability, and better buildings, and urban development—With access to jobs and services. Amman’s GHG reduction targets in • Housing, zoning, and building codes— mind, enhancing urban planning systems Complement government’s housing to mitigate urban sprawl, combined reforms by recalibrating land use policies with demand-side management and and building codes to make them more enforcement of building codes for energy market-responsive, allowing flexibility efficiency, can potentially yield more than for higher densities, and safeguarding six times GHG emission reduction by sufficient lands zoned for quality affordable 2050, compared to implementing each housing in suitable locations that are policy on its own. Only through a spatially well-served and connected to public integrated approach can Amman reach transportation. These interventions can its carbon-neutral goal by 2050 (Kaw and lower housing costs, which can contribute others 2022a). to the overall efficacy of complementary • Transit-oriented development (TOD)— government programs and other private Improved urban connectivity and land use sector incentives. These interventions could bring about a much more productive could help address the undersupply of and livable high-density urban form, and affordable housing and oversupply in the value capture. Land values are also likely broader housing market segments. to rise around main transit corridors, leading to potential intensification of land use downstream. Complementary THE NEW AMMAN: POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE 34 Strengthen the processes for reviewing creating continuous sidewalks) to public and adopting a dynamic master plan, transport nodes and enhancing overall ensuring that the master plan is livability through public spaces and social responsive to current city demands while infrastructure. Public space interventions safeguarding long-term horizon needs can be phased into or be undertaken as part linked to population and economic growth of more extensive upgrading schemes to projections, infrastructure provision, improve urban services in poor-quality and and budget. This goal can be achieved by informal residential areas. conducting systematic and frequent post- Shift from gray to green infrastructure by implementation reviews of the master plan investing in urban greening and nature- between major iterations. GAM may also based solutions. Resilient infrastructure adopt policies to allow strategic ad-hoc (such as stormwater canals) and protection demand-based modifications to zoning of mature standing vegetation areas and based on urban planning considerations. biodiversity within urban areas are examples The review process will also need to of these interventions. The opportunity for incorporate mechanisms for citizen immediate improvement lies in the low- consultations, transparency, and supported quality neighborhoods, often situated in by a strong legal backing. Public confidence proximity to refugee camps in the eastern in the master plan will be key to ensuring areas of Amman. These neighborhoods are that GAM’s plans are implemented. at a higher risk of climate-related impacts, such as urban heat island effects than Target neighborhood livability affluent areas in Amman. Greening these and inclusion neighborhoods can lower the risk of adverse Adopt spatially inclusive urban planning health effects and productivity loss due to improve connectivity and access to to extreme heat, act as carbon sinks, and vulnerable neighborhoods. GAM can preserve urban biodiversity. achieve this by first identifying lagging neighborhoods (income levels, quality Deepen evidence-based of urban environment and services, and policymaking with digital and availability of public lands) where urban geospatial tools regeneration and upgrading improvements can make a meaningful impact. Further, Strengthen the role of geospatial data, GAM can undertake participatory digital tools, and institutional expertise. approaches to urban design and Comprehensive urban planning and placemaking to garner stakeholder support policies must be supported by a data- and ownership as part of the process. driven and evidence-based approaches, Neighborhood plans should target improved especially in urban and transport planning, accessibility, safety, and inclusion for and resource and asset management. vulnerable people (women, children, elderly, GAM can do so by leveraging its wealth and disabled). For example, GAM can start of available spatial data, establishing by improving walkability (for example by comprehensive information systems that 35 A THREE-PRONGED APPROACH TOWARD SPATIAL TRANSFORMATION facilitate data sharing among various Improve MSDI by strengthening its data agencies, and breaking down information systems, including software, hardware, silos. A foundational step would be to capacity, and framework. This involves develop dedicated institutional capacity and developing fundamental datasets, data arrangements to support geospatial-related standards, metadata, and data classification activities and develop sustainable formal and storage systems. Additionally, raising data governance policies and regulatory the awareness of capacity needs, identifying frameworks 20 (Kaw and others 2024). gaps in data utilization and updating, and Nurturing an active data ecosystem requires implementing city-level open spatial data establishing regulatory protocols, clearly repositories and portals are paramount for defined organizational structures, and seamless data sharing and transfer, which delineating distinct roles and responsibilities would be a core part of the overall MSDI across operational departments such as IT, enhancement (Kaw and others 2024). transport, and urban planning. THE NEW AMMAN: POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE 36 Strategy 2: Prioritize key reforms and investments within limited resources and a small window of opportunity GAM needs to work with public and private stakeholders to make critical upfront investments, set the foundations to manage spatial growth, and avoid being locked into an inefficient urban form. There is urgency, at the current stage of Amman’s urban development, to: Undertake critical foundational • Strengthen the legal foundations of urban urban planning legislative and planning laws, such as authorization vacant land reforms for new provisions for development impact fees based on the cost of Modernize Amman’s urban planning public infrastructure serving a specific system and processes to strengthen development and new provisions for planning mechanisms, unlock effective betterment levies based on a detailed use of LVC instruments, improve public assessment of the impact of public participation and safeguards, and enhance improvements on individual properties. institutions, governance, and capacity. • Develop instruments for comprehensive Empower stronger intergovernmental planning, such as authorization for land relationships and local planning powers by readjustment provisions to allow the addressing institutional clarity, governance, public sector to pool or re-assemble and capacity. This involves improving private land. clarity on institutional arrangements, strengthening decentralization of planning • Unlock LVC instruments, such as authorization for charges for development powers as authorized in the GAM Law rights, for granting additional development 18/2021 21 , and aligning legal requirements rights in a targeted manner, providing with available capacity and resources for an opportunity to incentivize and benefit effective implementation. from increased density not covered in the Reform urban planning laws in Amman existing planning framework. to replace outdated methods with Support reforms with other critical non- strengthening the legal foundations for legislative and national-level actions. existing urban planning legislation22 . Critical accompanying non-legislative GAM can amend existing or propose new actions include improving land information legislation to address gaps in specific systems, land valuation processes, areas, such as enabling compensation fees, accounting and collection, compliance, development impact fees, and betterment and capacity building. It is better to levies. Revisions should ensure transparent couple GAM’s legislative reforms with the and efficient planning mechanisms, modernization of the national zoning law23 incorporating legislative objectives and (Law No. 79 of 1966). principles, aligning control over spatial planning with municipal finances, clarifying Address the prevalence of vacant the role and uses of planning tools, and undeveloped zoned lands by reviewing improving drafting clarity to: outdated tax policies for these lands, as 37 A THREE-PRONGED APPROACH TOWARD SPATIAL TRANSFORMATION part of broader property tax modernization an opportunity for expanding green and reforms and develop policies to encourage public spaces 25 , implementing a network more efficient utilization of infill vacant of sidewalks that promote non-motorized lands for development. Dedicated studies transportation, linking neighborhoods and and policy actions need to be built on robust public transportation, enhancing streets, legal foundations, valuation processes, and and providing public facilities like libraries. geospatial tools such as cadasters. Integrating nature-based solutions like urban forests offers multiple benefits, Prioritize investments for critical including flood protection, pollution citywide infrastructure reduction, biodiversity support, and GHG Prioritize public transport investments mitigation. To maximize public land utility, and support improved connectivity with some of these interventions can also be land use reforms. The planned extension utilized for interim uses, such as short- of the existing BRT network is an urgent term leases to businesses, until a more investment that needs to be coupled permanent land use for infill development is with land-use policies and legislation decided upon. reforms that allow for more flexible land Build expertise and support cross- use. Upfront transport investments can department coordination across relevant be capital intensive 24 but are necessary to departments within GAM such as urban avoid locking into an unsustainable urban planning, transport, and geospatial form later. In expansion areas, securing departments will be essential for rights-of-way for mass transit and streets developing evidence-based and integrated would be far more cost-effective than land transport and land use policies. Leveraging acquisition for them later. Major public geospatial data to develop an evidence- transport infrastructure investments would based approach to shaping policies and necessitate the modification of zoning prioritizing investments will be key. regulations to enable densification to respond to market demand for commercial Mobilize private sector and residential development. Regulatory participation reforms could include increasing the Finance public infrastructure through number of floors allowed, promoting density, land-based financing to complement public mixed-use, and an appropriate social mix. funding models. Land-based financing Reclaim underused public lands and instruments that could be strengthened or property and residual spaces for greenery, developed as part of GAM’s efforts to reform public amenities, infill development or its urban planning bylaws include developer interim uses. Remnant lands and unused exactions, land reassembly, and instruments property (such as abandoned public supporting TOD. Potential applications of properties, lands along abandoned railway these instruments involve having the private tracks, residual spaces under viaducts or sector develop public infrastructure such as along stormwater canals), or underutilized streets, public open and green areas, and for large open air parking lots contribute public facilities as part of private development to an inefficient use of lands and scarcity (often in return for more flexible land use or of greenery. These urban spaces present higher FAR) instead of relying solely on public THE NEW AMMAN: POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE 38 funding. TOD can be a promising approach Unlock new climate financing models given the anticipated demand for land use for public facilities and private buildings. densification from Amman’s plans to extend Feasible models include working with the existing BRT system. ESCOs and financial institutions to create specialized financial products, such as Deploy guidelines to support the energy performance contracts to fund implementation of POPS. These include energy efficiency upgrades from the energy implementing asset management, cost reductions—for instance, an ESCO establishing zoning, land use, or urban implements an energy efficiency project in design regulations for incentivizing POPS. buildings and uses the stream of income Consideration must also be made towards from the cost savings to repay the project methods to enforce service or lease costs. Building owners can take advantage contracts between local governments and of this off-balance sheet model to reduce private companies and meeting the business their carbon footprint without incurring case for developers to implement POPS. upfront costs from public funds. Align incentives with the private sector’s Enhance creditworthiness and bankability, business case for new green buildings. in the long run, to access private capital This can include simplifying and reducing and attract private investment in green the transaction costs of green building projects. To do so, the city needs to certification 26 , and developing effective focus on improving financial prudence tools and expertise for green building and management, encourage greater implementation. GAM can support these transparency and accountability. This will initiatives by also deploying land-based provide the private sector and financial financing instruments to support the institutions with a clearer understanding adoption of green buildings standards— of the risks for their capital, as well as such as FAR bonuses or mandatory reassure them of the climate investment requirements around strategic and high- opportunities in these projects 27. demand locations. 39 A THREE-PRONGED APPROACH TOWARD SPATIAL TRANSFORMATION Strategy 3: Leverage public assets and unlock land-based financing approaches Public assets such as lands, property, and cultural heritage can offer significant opportunities for creating and capturing value and local economic development. To unlock their potential, GAM can: Enhance public land and asset is channeled back to the government for management reinvestment in public infrastructure (either in terms of revenues or in-kind contribution). Develop smart asset management Specific areas for strengthening may include: strategy for municipal-owned land and property. The strategic management of • Stipulate a clear public mandate, and the GAM’s municipal properties portfolio can LVC model of its municipal companies. provide own-source revenues, catalyze Because corporations like AVID are local economic development, and deliver entrusted with the most valuable public services. At the asset level, inventorying, land parcels for private investments, there valuing, and assessing the conditions of needs to be transparent policies and these lands and properties will be key to robust mechanisms to value allocated land, an asset management strategy. Taking and how company revenue and profits will a life-cycle approach to managing these be spent, or captured by the municipality. properties can unlock cost-efficiencies • Align with the city master plan to optimize in operations and maintenance. At the developments towards positive spatial portfolio level, consolidating the use of outcomes. AVID’s activities strongly office space by the public sector, co- influences how land use and city form are locating multiple public uses, and freeing shaped. Major site-specific developments up floor space or whole properties to be need to be considered carefully from leased or disposed of can bring in further a strategic citywide perspective, as efficiencies and revenue streams. At the developments of this scale would change city level, maximizing municipal land and the land use dynamics of the city and may property utility and value can be achieved impact transportation infrastructure. through better urban planning and adopting appropriate land disposal mechanisms. • Coordinate closely with the municipality on public service delivery mandates and manage fiscal risks. AVID and Strengthen municipal company GAM will need systematic institutional governance for land development arrangements to balance the tradeoffs Strengthen the governance structure and/or synergies between using municipal of special-purpose land development land for investments and economic corporations focused on their institutional returns versus the provision of services arrangements, incentives, and to its populations. Furthermore, a system accountability with clear goals to enhance needs to be in place to decide on the and utilize the market value of public land. supply, locations, and types of lands to be In addition, the governance structure should entrusted to AVID, considering long-term ensure these corporations embed a public socio-economic needs. purpose and ensure that a fair share of value THE NEW AMMAN: POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE 40 Table 5: Summary of Priority Actions and Pathways Toward Spatial Transformation Key Background actors to paper and Strategy Priority actions and pathways coordinate other key with references Strategy 1: Improve spatial planning and integrate across sectors Implement policy actions across key sectors Whole of Kaw and others Support (urban, transport, energy, water etc.) and government. 2022a. citywide integrated manage spatial planning to achieve GAM’s Kaw and others urban low-carbon ambitions. Pathways to consider: 2022b. planning. Continue with GAM’s current spatial and Æ World Bank sector plans for urban development; Group 2022. Adopt more ambitious targets within the Æ GAM’s current plans, by integrating better across sectors, pivoting from gray to green infrastructure, and managing spatial growth; or Develop policy levers to achieve net-zero Æ emissions target, by investing in renewable energy infrastructure and limiting urban growth to infill development. Adopt a dynamic master plan that is GAM., Ministry Berrisford and responsive to current city and metropolitan of Local others 2023. demands while safeguarding long-term Administration horizon needs. (MOLA), Ministry of Improve process for systematic reviews Æ Transport between major iterations. (MOT). Support plans with strong stakeholder Æ Utility and engagement, strong legal backing and infrastructure instruments, and capacity. companies. Target Support broader affordable housing reforms GAM, Housing Hamilton and neighborhood on institutions, housing finance, and housing and Urban others 2018. livability and market through urban planning: Development inclusion. Corporation Make land available for affordable housing Æ (HUDC), by downzoning residential zones; Jordan Review building codes to allow for denser Æ Mortgage development; and Refinance Review characteristics of vacant units and Æ Company develop policy measures to facilitate vacant (JMRC). unit utilization (e.g., rental). 41 Complement investment in connectivity GAM, MOT, Kleineberg infrastructure with inclusive neighborhood Ministry of and others urban regeneration, public space Public Works 2022. improvements, and transit-oriented and Housing Park and development: (MOPWH). others 2023. Prioritize vulnerable neighborhoods for Æ Robinson and urban regeneration, enhance public spaces, others 2022. walkability and access of these neighborhoods to public transportation (e.g., BRT). Su and others 2022. Adopt transit-oriented development Æ approaches along key nodes (e.g., BRT Vallejo and interchanges). others 2024. Implement resilient and nature-based Æ solutions (e.g., urban forests and green spaces) in selected neighborhoods. Deepen Strengthen municipal spatial data GAM, Ministry Kaw and evidence- infrastructure and capacity. Pathways to of Digital others 2024. based consider: Economy and policymaking Entrepreneurship Improve efficiency of current processes; and/or Æ with digital (MODEE). and geospatial Implement reforms focused on institutional, Æ tools. people, data, and systems to enhance MSDI implementation. Strategy 2: Prioritize key reforms and investments within limited resources and a small window of opportunity Undertake Modernize urban planning by improving GAM, HUDC, Berrisford critical legislative foundations for planning, LVC MOLA. and others foundational mechanisms, public participation and 2023. urban safeguards, and urban governance. Pathways planning Hamilton to consider: and others legislative and vacant Improve implementation and practice Æ 2018. land reforms. without changes to legislation; Amend existing urban planning legislation; Æ and/or Propose new legislation. Æ Support reforms with other critical non- legislative and national-level actions such as improving land information systems, land valuation processes, accounting and collection, compliance, and capacity building. Review outdated tax policies for vacant lands, GAM, Ministry USAID 2010. as part of broader property tax modernization of Finance Corsi and reforms. (MOF). Selod 2023. THE NEW AMMAN: POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE 42 Table 5 (continued): Summary of Priority Actions and Pathways Toward Spatial Transformation Background Key actors to paper and Strategy Priority actions and pathways coordinate other key with references Prioritize Integrate transport investment and land use AVID, Amman Alam and investments reforms. Feasible pathways include: Vision Bagnoli 2023. for critical Transport citywide Implement land use reforms building on Æ Berrisford and (AVT), GAM, others 2023. infrastructure. BRT Phase 1 infrastructure, promoting MOPWH, further densification; or Kleineberg MOT. Extend BRT network with Phase 2, and Æ and others implement land use reforms, encouraging 2022. densification, and unlocking further city productivity. Reclaim underused public lands and property and residual spaces for greenery, public amenities, infill development or interim uses. Build expertise and support cross- department coordination across relevant departments within GAM such as urban planning, building, transport, environment, and geospatial departments. Mobilize Strengthen land-based financing to AVID, AVT, IFC 2018. private sector complement public funding models for public GAM, Jordan Kaw and others participation. infrastructure. Potential opportunities include: Green Building 2022b. Incentivize TOD approaches, adoption Æ Council (JGBC), of green building standards, and private Ministry of funding and management of POPS and Environment public infrastructure, through land use (MOE), Ministry policies, urban design guidelines. of Energy and Mineral Simplify green building certification Æ processes, create awareness, and align Resources with private sector’s business case. (MEMR), MOF. Build on land-based financing approaches to support other climate financing models for public facilities and private buildings (e.g., to rejuvenate green buildings program). Leverage LVC to support parallel efforts to improve financial management, creditworthiness, and bankability in the long run, to access private capital and attract private investment in green projects. 43 Strategy 3: Leverage public assets to unlock land-based financing approaches. Enhance Develop smart asset management strategy AVID, GAM, Berrisford and public land for municipal-owned land and property. MOF. others 2023. and asset Strengthen LVC mechanisms and public asset Kaganova, management. management. Pathways to consider: Kaw and Ababsa 2022. Enhance asset management of municipal- Æ owned land and property; Strengthen land use regulations and Æ instruments; and/or Update and unlock fiscal tools for co- Æ financing of public infrastructure by private companies and improve OSR. Strengthen Strengthen governance structure of special- AVT, AVID, Kaganova, municipal purpose land development corporations: GAM. Kaw and company Ababsa 2022. governance Stipulate a clear public mandate, and the LVC Æ for land model for the municipal companies including Lall and development. safeguarding lands administered by AVID for others, 2023. public purposes (e.g., social housing, schools, parks, and sport facilities etc.). Coordinate with GAM on broader city Æ planning and service delivery mandates. THE NEW AMMAN: POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE 44 Figure 16: Three Critical Strategies Undertake critical foundational urban planning legislative and vacant land reforms. Modernize urban planning systems, processes, and legislation to support planning, land value capture, public participation and safeguards, and urban governance.​ Mobilize private sector participation.​ Strengthen land-based financing mechanisms to unlock private sector funding models for public infrastructure, and support parallel efforts to improve financial management, creditworthiness, and bankability in the long run, to access private capital and attract private investment in green projects. Prioritize investments for critical citywide infrastructure. Integrate transport investment and land use reforms upfront to avoid locking into an unsustainable urban form.​ Strengthen municipal company governance for land development. Strengthen governance Enhance public land and asset structure of special-purpose land management. development corporations and Develop a smart asset management align with municipality on broader strategy for municipal-owned land city planning and service delivery and property and strengthen land mandates.​ value capture mechanisms. Dynamic planning and Spatial Strategy 1. Improve spatial responsive land use​ planning and integrate Spatial fragmentation​ integration across sectors.​ Proactive citywide infrastructure provision​ Strategy 2. Prioritize key People and neighborhoods Underleveraged​ reforms and investments well-connected to Inclusive growth potential​ within limited resources and a jobs and services, growth small window of opportunity.​ agglomeration economies​ Private sector participation Strategy 3. Leverage public in urban development​ Sustainable Fiscal​ constraints​ assets and unlock land- finance based financing approaches.​ Land value creation and capture​ Support citywide integrated urban planning. Pivot towards integrated green infrastructure and manage spatial planning to achieve sustainable outcomes. Adopt a dynamic master plan that is responsive to current metropolitan demands while safeguarding long-term horizon needs.​ Target neighborhood livability and inclusion. Focus on inclusive neighborhood urban regeneration, public space improvements, and transit- oriented development to complement investment in connectivity infrastructure and housing policy reforms.​ Deepen evidence-based policymaking with digital and geospatial tools. Strengthen municipal spatial data infrastructure and capacity as the next phase of Amman’s smart city strategy. 4. CONCLUSION A POSTCARD FROM FUTURE AMMAN Imagine it is 2050 and you are standing atop one of the seven original Amman hills, writing a postcard, describing what you see. The Amman you describe is intricately connected; its neighborhoods seamlessly linked by a comprehensive public transportation network. Whether for work, education, shopping, or recreation, residents and visitors alike can traverse the city with ease. Every corner of Amman exudes accessibility, with social amenities, open spaces, and schools within walking distance from any part of the city. This future Amman is a powerhouse of competitiveness, witnessing a surge in job opportunities and Foreign Direct Investment. Its cultural heritage is a magnet for tourists, and the resulting economic spillovers benefit the service industry workers. The citizens, crucially, bask in a sense of well-being, social inclusion, safety, security, and environmental sustainability. A key achievement in this future Amman is the successful mitigation of urban fragmentation through thoughtful planning and investment policies, and notably through smarter public land and asset management. Energy consumption and GHG emissions have seen further substantial reductions—exceeding the plans of 2024 dramatically with net GHG emissions now at near-zero—while the operating costs municipal services have been slashed by a quarter. The city boasts up-to-date building codes, most new constructions are certified green, and green energies fueling both transport and buildings. Urban forests provide cooling shade, creating a harmonious environment for people and urban wildlife. Crucially, there is a robust system of accountability and coordination between local and central governments. Legal and planning frameworks are sound, backed by a high capacity for planning and asset management. An integrated planning and implementation approach has allowed Amman to enjoy leveraging private sector participation in shaping Amman’s urban development, effectively capturing land values to build green infrastructure. Property rights are robust, land values transparent facilitated by a dynamic land market, and land use and zoning align with local preferences, fostering durable investments in infrastructure. The city has also become a trailblazer in the application of digital solutions, supported by an advanced geospatial data platform and analytical tools that support its urban planning efforts. Digitization efforts extend to land and fiscal cadasters for enhanced asset management and property tax administration. In conclusion, the postcard reads, “Amman is the place to be!” The city’s journey to 2050 has been one of inclusive transformation, where strategic planning, sustainable practices, and technological innovation have converged to create a climate-smart model city for the world to admire and emulate. THE NEW AMMAN: POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE 48 Endnotes 1. Amman’s 2022-2026 strategy 7. As opposed to gray infrastructure which focuses on five pillars, including: (a) relies on traditional engineered solutions a pioneering institution, (b) active (e.g., concrete stormwater canals), green community participation, (c) a modern infrastructure is designed with deep city, (d) a planned city, and (e) a safe consideration for incorporating nature (use and sustainable city, health-wise and of ecologically engineered floodplains or environmentally. The strategy’s entry wetlands to manage stormwater runoff.) points include: (i) public transport, (ii) 8. Amman’s spatial plans include the Amman climate change and the environment, Green City Action Plan (2021), the Amman (iii) urban planning, and (iv) community Climate Plan: A Visions for 2050 (2019), and participation, all the while utilizing digital the Transport and Mobility Master Plan for and smart technologies. Amman (2010). 2. C40 is a network of mayors of nearly 100 9. Reaching net zero emissions will world-leading cities collaborating to deliver require significant capital investments the urgent action needed right now to for renewable energy and related confront the climate crisis. Membership infrastructure. in the C40 Network is gained through performance-based requirements. 10. Phase 1 connects the north-eastern and north-western regions, and Phase 3. Based on “degree of urbanization,” a new 2 extends to the southern and south- definition of cities, towns, semi-dense westerns regions of Amman. and rural areas was endorsed by the UN Statistical Commission in 2020 to improve 11. Amounting to US$1 billion accumulated estimation of urbanization and capture the debt by the end of 2022, and costly debt urban-rural continuum. service (28 percent of revenues of 2022), based on financial analysis conducted by 4. In January 2024, there are a total of 643,199 the World Bank. registered Syrian refugees, of which 29.8 percent of them reside in Amman. 12. Land value capture is a land-based financing approach that enables 5. From 1990 to 2015, Amman’s built- governments to recover and reinvest value up areas has grown from 161.33 km2 from land value increases, resulting from to 276.24 km2. 77.58 percent through public investment and government actions. extension and leapfrog, and 22.42 percent of new development appeared as infill 13. Based on findings from an inventory development in existing urban areas.  exercise supported by the World Bank. 6. Based on internal World Bank analysis. 14. The 3.5 percent to 5 percent capitalization rate is based on discussions with AVID and specific to Amman. 49 15. Based on financial analysis conducted by Jordan Country-level Digital Economy the World Bank. Assessment (2019). 16. Leadership in Energy and Environmental 20. The World Bank is providing technical Design (LEED) and the Excellence in assistance to conduct a MSDI assessment Design for Greater Efficiencies (EDGE) are and a roadmap to enhance the use of green building certification systems. spatial data in GAM. 17. The private provision of public spaces and 21. The Greater Amman Municipality Law neighborhood facilities, such as schools, 18/2021. by developers in large-scale developments 22. The World Bank conducted a technical is common globally, as seen in the new assistance to review GAM’s urban planning towns of the Arab Republic of Egypt and legislation and developed a series of the largest metropolitan agglomerations legislative and accompanying non- in Brazil. The ownership of such public legislative actions to reform its by laws. spaces is then transferred to municipalities, which then operate and maintain such 23. Law of Planning Cities, Towns Villages spaces. Another variation is the privately and Buildings No. 79 for the year 1966 on owned, privately operated, and maintained Planning and building regulations, and its public spaces provided in New York City amendments. under incentive zoning schemes that gave 24. Half of the current GAM strategic plan developers additional development rights. budget is allocated to public transport. 18. Inefficiencies in managing solid waste The plan prioritizes JD 450 million for are costing GAM financially, and are completing the BRT project and JD 204 impacting its ability to unlock public- million for road safety. private partnerships. Cost recovery levels 25. The World Bank is providing technical for the sector are around 60 percent assistance to develop urban design overall, with fees of disposable income schemes to connect with the proposed below the internationally recommended BRT Phase 2 in selected vulnerable affordability threshold, with general neighborhoods. municipal revenue funding the difference. 26. The IFC is currently providing assistance To unlock access to PPP modalities, there to scale up the use of EDGE as a green is a need for optimization of the waste building certification system. management system. 27. The World Bank is currently providing 19. Jordan is rated “advanced” in the areas technical assistance to conduct a of digital infrastructure, digital platforms, detailed financial management and digital entrepreneurship, and digital skills creditworthiness assessment for GAM. based on the World Bank MENA Tech, THE NEW AMMAN: POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE 50 References Ababsa, Myriam, and Ahmad Z. Abu Hussein. Yuan Xiao, Aris Molfetas-Lygkiaris, and John 2020. “Metropolitan Amman: Comprehensive Raymond Wille. 2018. Jordan - Housing Sector Climate Plans.” In Volume II of Greater Than Assessment. Washington, DC: World Bank Parts: A Metropolitan Opportunity, edited by Group. Shagun Mehrotra et al., Washington, DC: Haas, Astrid R. N., Sebastian Kriticos. 2019. World Bank. Considerations for Land Value Capture Alam, Muneeza Mehmood, and Lisa Bagnoli. Reform in the Greater Amman Municipality. 2023. Ten-thousand Steps in Her Shoes: The London: International Growth Center. Role of Public Transport in Women’s Economic IFC. 2018. Climate Investment Opportunities in Empowerment – Evidence from Egypt, Jordan, Cities. and Lebanon. Washington, DC: World Bank. IMF. 2023. “Jordan: Financial Sector Berrisford, Stephen, Christian Alexander, Assessment Program-Financial System Vivienne Jonker, and Jon Kher Kaw. 2023. Stability Assessment.” IMF Staff Country Unblocking Transformative Development in Reports 2023, 140. Amman: A Way Forward for Planning Law Reform. Washington, DC: World Bank. Kaganova, Olga, Jon Kher Kaw, and Myriam Ababsa. 2022. The Need to Reform Land-Use Corsi, Anna, and Harris Selod. 2023. Land Planning and Land Management in MENA: Matters: Can Better Governance and The Cases of Amman, Cairo, and Casablanca. Management of Scarcity Prevent a Looming Working Paper. Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa? Washington, DC: World Bank. Kaganova, Olga, Jon Kher Kaw, and Gabor Peteri. 2024. Land Value Capture: Guidance Department of Statistics. 2022. “Employment for Practitioners. Paper presented at the and Unemployment Yearly - Absolute World Bank Land Conference 2024: Securing numbers (2017-2022).” Accessed February 15, Land Tenure and Access for Climate Action, 2024. https://jorinfo.dos.gov.jo/Databank/ Washington, DC, May 13-17. pxweb/en/DOS_Database/. Kaw, Jon Kher, Hyunji Lee, and Sameh Wahba, GAM (Greater Amman Municipality). 2008. The eds. 2020. The Hidden Wealth of Cities: Amman Plan: Metropolitan Growth Report Creating, Financing, and Managing Public (2008-2025). Spaces. Washington, DC: World Bank. GAM (Greater Amman Municipality). 2019. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1449-5. Amman Climate Plan: A Vision for 2050 Kaw, Jon Kher, Yanchao Li, Mira Morad, Waad Amman. Amman: Ministry of Environment. Tammaa, Ricardo Ochoa, and Dinorah León. GIZ. 2022. “Improving Living Conditions of 2022a. Amman Urban Growth Scenarios: Disadvantaged Areas in Amman (ILCA) Pathways Toward a Low-carbon Future. project.” Accessed February 15, 2024. https:// Washington, DC: World Bank. www.giz.de/en/worldwide/83767.html. Kaw, Jon Kher, Yanchao Li, Mira Morad, Hamilton, Ellen, Victor Mints, Jose Luis Acero and Waad Tammaa. 2022b. Pathways for Vergel, Myriam Ababsa, Waad Tammaa, Decarbonizing Growing Cities across the 51 Urban-Transport-Energy Nexus in Jordan. Ferres. 2022. “Fast building segmentation Working Paper. Washington, DC: World Bank. from satellite imagery and few local labels.” 10.48550/arXiv.2206.05377. Kaw, Jon Kher, Zheng Judy Jia, Pol Nadal Cros, Ban Edilbi, Matthew Glasser, Myriam Schiavina, Marcello, Michele Melchiorri, Ababsa, Graham Colclough, and Isaac Kim. Martino Pesaresi, Panagiotis Politis, S. Freire, 2023. Amman Smart and Green Amman Luca Maffenini, Pietro Florio et al. 2022. Program Rapid Diagnostic. Working Paper. “GHSL data package 2022.” Publications Washington, DC: World Bank. Office of the European Union: Luxembourg. Kaw, Jon Kher, Hogeun Park, Guillermo Su, Rui, Ross Eisenberg, Steven Rubinyi, Zheng Velasco, Paul Cota, Denisse Larracilla, Jia and Jon Kher Kaw. 2022. Jordan Urban Jorge Marquez, and Maha Tarawneh. 2024. Climate Risk Analysis. Background Paper. Municipal Spatial Data Infrastructure Capacity Washington, DC: World Bank. and Readiness Assessment. USAID. 2010. Jordan Fiscal Reform Project II. Kleineberg, Tatjana, Sally Beth Murray, Jordan: The Taxation of Real Property. Yulu Tang, and Jon Kher Kaw. 2024. The UN-Habitat. 2022. Amman Spatial Profile Welfare and Productivity Effects of Transit Jordan. Improvements in Amman. Washington, DC: World Bank. UNHCR (The UN Refugee Agency). 2024. Total Registered Syrian Refugees. Accessed Lall, Somik V., Jon Kher Kaw, Forhad J. Shilpi, January 31, 2024. https://data.unhcr.org/en/ and Sally Beth Murray. 2023. Vibrant Cities: situations/syria/location/36. On the Bedrock of Stability, Prosperity, and Sustainability. Washington, DC: World Bank. Vallejo, Jose Luis, Belinda Tato, Marco Rizzetto, Jon Kher Kaw, Hogeun Park, and Ban Edilbi. Malkawi, Fuad, Patrick Lamson-Hall, and 2024. Transit-Oriented Neighborhoods in Sandra Hiari. 2021. “Prospectus of City Amman: Neighborhood Selection, Analysis, Growth: Rethinking Planning in Amman.” IGC and Concept Designs. Washington, DC: (blog), June 14, 2021. https://www.theigc.org/ World Bank. blogs/prospectus-city-growth-rethinking- planning-amman#:~:text=Rethinking%20 World Bank. 2020. Convergence: Five Critical planning%20in%20modern%20 Steps toward Integrating Lagging and times&text=Amman's%20prevalent%20 Leading Areas in the Middle East and planning%20approaches%20and,of%20 North Africa. Washington, DC: World Bank. a%20new%20master%20plan. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1450-1. Park, Hogeun, Nancy Lozano-Gracia, Guiseppe World Bank. Sustainable Development Rossitti, and Olivia D’Aoust. 2023. A Global Scenarios and Nature-Based Solutions Review of Intra-Urban Spatial Inequality. Potential Assessment for Amman, Jordan. Working Paper. World Bank Group. 2022. Jordan Country Robinson, Caleb, Anthony Ortiz, Hogeun Climate and Development Report. CCDR Park, Nancy Gracia, Jon Kher Kaw, Tina Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. Sederholm, Rahul Dodhia, and Juan Lavista THE NEW AMMAN: POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE 52 Annex 1 An urban growth scenarios analysis suggests Amman can significantly reduce energy consumption and GHG emissions through integrated and complementary policy levers and by controlling urban sprawl. The following four scenarios were modeled, two based on Amman’s current plans (plan and ambitious scenarios). Table 6 summarizes the policy levers and targets for each scenario. Table 6: Policy Levers Across Urban Growth Scenarios Ambitious Policy levers BaU Plan scenario Net zero scenario scenario Amman Green l l l City Action Plan Amman Climate l l l Plan Transport and Mobility Master l l l Plan for Amman Intended NDC l l Selected green l projects Urban Historical urban Expansion areas Compact growth A policy of zero urban expansion expansion. forecasted by GAM. within a buffer zone growth. of 2.5 km around the 2020 city boundaries. Renewable No increase of Additional 14 MW of Additional 138 MW 100% of renewable energy local installed installed capacity of of installed capacity, energy supply for contribution capacity from renewable energies. including a renewable Amman. renewable energy supply of 60% energies. for street lighting. Demand-side The historical US$ 960 million in US$ 1,920 million in US$ 2,560 million management energy financial benefits that financial benefits that in financial benefits consumption will potentially reduce will potentially reduce that will potentially trend. energy consumption energy consumption reduce the energy by 10%. by 30%. consumption up to 56%. Green building Non- The implementation The implementation 100% of city codes implementation of the green building of green building buildings implement of green code in 142,200 codes in 853,200 green building building codes. existing and new existing and new codes. buildings. buildings. 53 Electricity 50% LED street 100% LED street The optimal reduction The maximum consumption in lighting. lighting. by replacing 46,600 reduction by replacing public lighting traditional bulbs with 100% lamps with solar LED technology and LED street lighting. 186,300 with solar LED street lighting. Electrification of A gasoline and Electrification of Electrification of Electrification of transport diesel transport 407,240 cars (50% 610,860 cars (75% 814,480 cars (100% system. of total cars), 150 of total cars), 300 of total cars), 600 public buses (25%), public buses (50%), public buses (100%), 100 trucks (10%), and 240 trucks (25%), and 960 trucks (100%), an additional 1,800 an additional 2,000 and 100% of 3,000 2-wheelers (60%). 2-wheelers (90%). 2-wheelers (100%). Mass public No additional The development of The development of The development of transit BRT routes. approximately 60 km approximately 110 km approximately 110 km of BRT routes. of BRT routes. of BRT routes. Pedestrianization No specific Maintenance and The development of a The development of a corridor safety measures for complete corridor of complete corridor of development. the existing sidewalks. 110 km. It includes the 110 km. It includes the integration of mass integration of mass public transit with public transit with proper sidewalks and proper sidewalks and bicycle lanes. bicycle lanes. Controlled No additional 200 ha of controlled 3,000 ha of controlled 3,000 ha of controlled parking parking parking zones. parking zones. parking zones. measures. Waste The current 12% waste reduction 50% waste reduction 70% waste reduction management waste sent to landfills. sent to landfills. sent to landfills. management system. Water The required Water efficiency Water efficiency Water efficiency management water network packages in 142,200 packages in 853,200 packages in all city expansion to existing and new existing and new buildings to decrease provide water buildings to decrease buildings to decrease by 40% the water services in the by 15% the water by 30% the water consumption. In new areas of the consumption. consumption. In addition, the scenario city. addition, the scenario considers a decrease considers a decrease of 95% in water of 70% in water distribution loss. distribution loss. Green spaces No additional 3 new parks (1.5 ha). 7 new parks (2.1 ha). 7 new parks and and parks parks. green infrastructure (87.8 ha). Gray and green No resilient Phases 1 and 2 of Phases 1 and 2 of Green infrastructure infrastructure infrastructure. the water drainage the water drainage strategy, and water infrastructure to infrastructure to conveyance to reduce reduce pluvial and reduce pluvial and pluvial and fluvial fluvial floods by 15%. fluvial floods by 15%. floods by 25%. THE NEW AMMAN: POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE 54 55 THE NEW AMMAN: POSITIONED AT A JUNCTURE 56 57 In “Future Amman Positioned at a Juncture: Three Strategies Toward Climate- Smart Spatial Transformation,” the intricate dynamics of Amman’s urban landscape are meticulously studied to offer a comprehensive roadmap toward spatial transformation. With a focus on growth dynamics, resource allocation, asset management, and planning reforms, the book lays out three strategies crucial for Amman’s future development. Strategy 1 delves into the necessity of leveraging spatial planning to manage growth effectively and foster synergies across various sectors. By adopting an integrated approach encompassing spatial planning, green building initiatives, transit-oriented development, and housing reforms, Amman can stride toward its ambitious city vision while mitigating urban sprawl and reducing carbon emissions. The narrative underscores the importance of citizen consultations, transparency, and robust legal frameworks in ensuring the successful implementation of these strategies. Strategy 2 emphasizes the urgency of strategic sequencing and prioritization of actions to optimize limited resources within Amman’s evolving landscape. From foundational urban planning legislative reforms to prioritizing investments in critical citywide infrastructure, the pathway advocates for a carefully crafted approach aimed at fostering sustainable growth while maximizing public and private sector participation. Finally, Strategy 3 underscores the untapped potential of Amman’s public land assets and enterprises in driving economic development and sustainable land value capture. By enhancing public land and asset management strategies and bolstering municipal company governance for land development, Amman can unlock new financing instruments and foster local economic growth while maintaining a focus on public interest and accountability. Through insightful analysis and pragmatic recommendations, “Future Amman Positioned at a Juncture” offers a compelling narrative for policymakers, urban planners, and stakeholders invested in shaping Amman’s future as a vibrant, inclusive, and resilient city.